Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 80 percent (Jul 27, 2026) and 97 percent (Sep 27, 2026), across 5,709 recorded prices. The current price of 97 percent is 1.3 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (96 percent), and 3.1 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (94 percent).

Weekly closes

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 97 percent, with the NO outcome at 3 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

More macro markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 616902

Kresmion, "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 616902.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026">Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>