Monetary policy decisions

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Its updated assessment reconfirms that inflation should stabilise at removed: the added: its 2% target in the medium term.

The removed: new Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.1% added: economy remains resilient in removed: 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 added: a challenging global environment. Low unemployment, solid private sector balance sheets, the gradual rollout of public spending on defence and removed: 2.0% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy added: infrastructure and removed: food, staff project an average added: the supportive effects of removed: 2.4% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027 added: the past interest rate cuts are underpinning growth. At the same time, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and removed: 2.0% in 2028. Inflation has been revised up for 2026, mainly because staff now expect services inflation to decline more slowly. Economic growth is expected to be stronger than in the September projections, driven especially by domestic demand. Growth has been revised up to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 and is expected to remain at 1.4% in 2028. added: geopolitical tensions.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

***

The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.