2026-08-04

Platinum rose 8.1% vs prior close ($1,618.00 → $1,748.70)

Cotton volume spike - 773.3× the 20-day average (19,603 vs 25 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 5.0× the 20-day average (133,108 vs 26,377 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 18.2× the 20-day average (145 vs 7 avg)

OSINT: Spanish police uncover expelled jihadist migrants in Ceuta

OSINT: US-Iran Talks: Iran Demands Blockade Lift, Sanctions Relief, Strait Toll Rights

Oil -5.68%: significant decline on the session

Gold +3.08%: significant gain on the session

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($20,838 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" moved +20pp in 24h to 76%

OSINT: Ukraine conducts first fully robotic air assault, dropping mine-laying drones

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" moved +25pp in 24h to 62%

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": $11,722 in orders from 19 wallets absorbed at the 59% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

OSINT: Japan's VPK economic data points to modest growth

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?": $16,442 in orders from 25 wallets absorbed at the 87% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction

OSINT: Iranian Drone Strike Hits Kuwait Near Iraq Border

OSINT: US-Iran MoU compliance urged amid rising tensions

Gold +2.26%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Targets Moscow in Massive Raid

RBOB Gasoline fell 4.3% vs prior close ($2.97 → $2.84)

OSINT: US Prepares ISTAR and UAV Assets Amid Rising Iran Conflict

OSINT: Russia set for major Ukraine escalation, mobilization and northern front

OSINT: "Despite falling jet fuel prices, airline tickets are unlikely to go down,&

OSINT: Spanish police uncover expelled jihadist migrants in Ceuta

OSINT: Ukrainian Air Force F-16AM Test-flown in Belgium during depot maintenance

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?" moved +18pp in 24h to 62%

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?" moved +18pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?" moved -15pp in 24h to 24%

OSINT: BP hints at new mega-merger, reviving supermajor era

OSINT: NATO Rules Prompt Ukrainian Jet to Divert from Russian Missile Over Poland

OSINT: US Army uses up most long-range PrSM and ATACMS missiles in Iran war

OSINT: Russia readies renewed invasion via Chernihiv, escalation looming

OSINT: Rogue Russian Soldier Kills Own Troops and Civilians in Crimea

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($33,505 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Oil -3.46%: significant decline on the session

Gold +1.98%: significant gain on the session

Polymarket order flow on "Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($12,051 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($37,967 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

OSINT: SpaceX Q2 Revenue Surges 92% Amid Drop in Digital Asset Value

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?" moved +20pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2026-08-06?" moved +49pp in 24h to 98%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-08-04?" moved -26pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-08-04?" moved -40pp in 24h to 20%

OSINT: US-Iran Talks: Iran Demands Blockade Lift, Sanctions Relief, Strait Toll Rights

Prediction market repriced: "Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-08-04?" moved +28pp in 24h to 60%

Prediction market repriced: "Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-08-04?" moved -28pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Exact Score: CF Villarreal C 0 - 0 Levante UD?" moved -26pp in 24h to 18%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": $37,594 in orders from 19 wallets absorbed at the 19% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?" moved -22pp in 24h to 60%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $14,829 in orders from 19 wallets absorbed at the 50% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?" moved +26pp in 24h to 43%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $10,589 in orders from 37 wallets absorbed at the 43% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($16,127 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($22,614 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction ma

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-08-03?" moved -32pp in 24h to 6%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 6-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($24,006 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

OSINT: Jay Clayton Sworn In as U.S. Director of National Intelligence

OSINT: US-Iran MoU compliance urged amid rising tensions

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($26,731 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Targets Moscow in Massive Raid

OSINT: SpaceX claims $100 billion cash reserve

OSINT: Russia set for major Ukraine escalation, mobilization and northern front

OSINT: US Prepares ISTAR and UAV Assets Amid Rising Iran Conflict

Prediction market repriced: "Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-08-04?" moved -19pp in 24h to 8%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 8%

OSINT: US Coast Guard Marks 236th Birthday on Aug 4, 2026

OSINT: US Coast Guard Marks 236th Birthday on Aug 4, 2026

OSINT: Spanish police uncover expelled jihadist migrants in Ceuta

OSINT: Spanish police uncover expelled jihadist migrants in Ceuta

Prediction market repriced: "Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-04?" moved -15pp in 24h to 30%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?" moved +16pp in 24h to 72%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,354 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": $11,607 in orders from 7 wallets absorbed at the 65% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

OSINT: China warns Japan not to cross Taiwan red line

OSINT: Irish VIP Jet Lacks Fog-Landing Gear Due to Israel Procurement Ban

OSINT: Low feedback on proposed fast-jet and ISTAR/UAV fleet mapping

OSINT: RAF Fairford bomber training sorties aborted amid technical glitches

OSINT: Ukrainian Air Force F-16AM Test-flown in Belgium during depot maintenance

OSINT: USAF HC-130J Combat King II Arrives at RAF Mildenhall from Italy

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?" moved +17pp in 24h to 79%

OSINT: Russia readies renewed invasion via Chernihiv, escalation looming

OSINT: NATO Rules Prompt Ukrainian Jet to Divert from Russian Missile Over Poland

OSINT: US Army uses up most long-range PrSM and ATACMS missiles in Iran war

OSINT: Russia readies renewed invasion via Chernihiv, escalation looming

OSINT: Spain Blocks Italy's Plan for Offshore Migration Centers

OSINT: Rogue Russian Soldier Kills Own Troops and Civilians in Crimea

Prediction market repriced: "Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?" moved -16pp in 24h to 5%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($28,187 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

OSINT: US drafts ban on Chinese data center components

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 34%

OSINT: EU eyes tighter borders, more aid to Morocco, says von der Leyen

OSINT: ⬇️🇷🇺#пшеница #зерно #россия

OSINT: EU eyes tighter borders, more aid to Morocco, says von der Leyen

OSINT: SpaceX Q2 Revenue Surges 92% Amid Drop in Digital Asset Value

OSINT: SK Hynix, Micron, MU, Samsung Fill 2027 DRAM/HBM Capacity

OSINT: Jay Clayton Sworn In as U.S. Director of National Intelligence

OSINT: Cantor Fitzgerald predicts SK Hynix US shares could double in 12 months

OSINT: SpaceX claims $100 billion cash reserve

BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, INC. 8-K references SOL treasury activity · filed 2026-08-04

Hyperscale Data, Inc. (GPUS, GPUS-PD) 8-K references BTC treasury activity · filed 2026-08-04

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 365.8%, EPS $148.4119 vs $31.8594 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.2%, EPS $1.70 vs $1.4888 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 19.3%, EPS $1.64 vs $1.3743 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 10.1%, EPS $0.05 vs $0.0556 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 85.0%, EPS $0.05 vs $0.3327 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 6.3%, EPS $2.6331 vs $2.8091 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 21.4%, EPS $-0.26 vs $-0.2142 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 126.9%, EPS $0.40 vs $0.1763 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.7%, EPS $0.41 vs $0.3544 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.3%, EPS $1.22 vs $1.0965 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $0.17 vs $0.1404 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 80.3%, EPS $1.83 vs $1.0149 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.2%, EPS $12.01 vs $11.4208 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 1302.9%, EPS $0.78 vs $0.0556 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.8%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.0505 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 30.5%, EPS $8.17 vs $6.2595 estimate

S&P 500 MINI: speculators net short 17,196 contracts (+2.4σ vs 52w mean), still net short but far less short than usual, positioning unwinding toward long

OSINT: NVIDIA Unveils Alpamayo 2 Super AI Model for Autonomous Vehicles

OSINT: FCC drafts rule to ban Chinese AI data-center optical transceivers

OSINT: FBI Agent Allegedly Stole $1M+ in Crypto from Russian Accounts

OSINT: Alibaba launches free top-tier AI model rivaling Claude and ChatGPT

1 congress member filed 7 trades in LTH: net selling (0B/7S)

OSINT: Cloudflare Introduces AI-Enabled Stablecoin Wallets for Autonomous Payments

OSINT: Todd Blanche 77% Likely Confirmed as Attorney General by Month-end

OSINT: Base L2 Stablecoin Volume Hits $26.1T in 2026, Outpacing 2025

OSINT: Retail investors dump chip stocks at record pace

OSINT: Wow. $PLTR is up more than 27% after earnings.

OSINT: RAF Fairford bomber training sorties aborted amid technical glitches

OSINT: Low feedback on proposed fast-jet and ISTAR/UAV fleet mapping

OSINT: Irish VIP Jet Lacks Fog-Landing Gear Due to Israel Procurement Ban

OSINT: China warns Japan not to cross Taiwan red line

OSINT: Canaan to Sell Bitcoin to Finance Share Buybacks

OSINT: Apple briefly pulls Telegram from App Store after hidden illegal content

OSINT: Ukrainian Air Force F-16AM Test-flown in Belgium during depot maintenance

OSINT: US House Bill Aims to Ban Federal Reserve from Creating a CBDC

OSINT: Solana Teams with World Series of Poker, Showcasing Top Crypto Creators

OSINT: Decentralized AI Takes Spotlight in Bitcoin-Inspired Discussion

OSINT: Anthropic inks $10B compute deal with Volta Infra

OSINT: Western Union launches Solana-based USDPT wallet and Visa card in 37 markets

OSINT: Spain Blocks Italy's Plan for Offshore Migration Centers

OSINT: US drafts ban on Chinese data center components

Prediction market repriced: "Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?" moved +15pp in 24h to 32%

OSINT: Strategy's $STRC Preferred Stock Surpasses $90, First Time in 7 Weeks

BITMINE IMMERSION TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (BMNP, BMNR) 8-K references ETH treasury activity · filed 2026-08-03

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 6.6%, EPS $0.40 vs $0.4284 estimate

OSINT: SpaceX Q2 Revenue Surges 92% Amid Drop in Digital Asset Value

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 4?" moved +24pp in 24h to 98%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 4?" moved +20pp in 24h to 40%

AVAX open interest +20.0% over 24h, OI surge

OSINT: Coldcard Wallet Bug Leads to $100M Bitcoin Theft

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5?" moved +19pp in 24h to 68%

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,904 contracts (+2.2σ vs 52w mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: FBI Agent Allegedly Stole $1M+ in Crypto from Russian Accounts

OSINT: Alibaba launches free top-tier AI model rivaling Claude and ChatGPT

OSINT: NVIDIA Unveils Alpamayo 2 Super AI Model for Autonomous Vehicles

OSINT: Solana Aggregator Competition Heats Up as OKX and dFlow Challenge Jupiter

OSINT: Todd Blanche 77% Likely Confirmed as Attorney General by Month-end

OSINT: Base L2 Stablecoin Volume Hits $26.1T in 2026, Outpacing 2025

OSINT: Cloudflare Introduces AI-Enabled Stablecoin Wallets for Autonomous Payments

OSINT: US Senators demand SEC probe of Trump memecoin after 95% plunge

OSINT: Canaan to Sell Bitcoin to Finance Share Buybacks

OSINT: Apple briefly pulls Telegram from App Store after hidden illegal content

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on August 4?" moved +18pp in 24h to 68%

OSINT: Bitcoin ETFs see inflows while Ethereum ETFs record outflows

OSINT: US House Bill Aims to Ban Federal Reserve from Creating a CBDC

OSINT: Coldcard breach sparks Bitcoin outflows, small transfers surge to post-FTX highs

OSINT: Kamino Unveils Institutional Commodity Yield Vault on Solana

OSINT: OKX Claims $1.1B Asset Protection and $26.3M Scam Prevention in H1 2026

OSINT: &quot;Bitcoin&apos;s longterm trend is bearish,&quot; per ING

OSINT: Decentralized AI Takes Spotlight in Bitcoin-Inspired Discussion

OSINT: Solana Teams with World Series of Poker, Showcasing Top Crypto Creators

OSINT: Anthropic inks $10B compute deal with Volta Infra

OSINT: Self-Custody Debate Sparks After Major Crypto Platform Outage

OSINT: Western Union launches Solana-based USDPT wallet and Visa card in 37 markets

OSINT: Strategy's $STRC Preferred Stock Surpasses $90, First Time in 7 Weeks

EUR/USD: speculators net short 72,447 contracts (-2.9σ vs 52w mean), crowded short positioning

OSINT: US-Iran Talks: Iran Demands Blockade Lift, Sanctions Relief, Strait Toll Rights

OSINT: Jay Clayton Sworn In as U.S. Director of National Intelligence

OSINT: US-Iran MoU compliance urged amid rising tensions

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Targets Moscow in Massive Raid

OSINT: FCC drafts rule to ban Chinese AI data-center optical transceivers

OSINT: Russia set for major Ukraine escalation, mobilization and northern front

OSINT: US Prepares ISTAR and UAV Assets Amid Rising Iran Conflict

OSINT: Base L2 Stablecoin Volume Hits $26.1T in 2026, Outpacing 2025

OSINT: Todd Blanche 77% Likely Confirmed as Attorney General by Month-end

OSINT: Spanish police uncover expelled jihadist migrants in Ceuta

OSINT: China warns Japan not to cross Taiwan red line

OSINT: Irish VIP Jet Lacks Fog-Landing Gear Due to Israel Procurement Ban

OSINT: Ukrainian Air Force F-16AM Test-flown in Belgium during depot maintenance

OSINT: US Treasury Secretary Bessent pledges US support for yen, hints at intervention

OSINT: US House Bill Aims to Ban Federal Reserve from Creating a CBDC

OSINT: NATO Rules Prompt Ukrainian Jet to Divert from Russian Missile Over Poland

OSINT: BP hints at new mega-merger, reviving supermajor era

OSINT: Russia readies renewed invasion via Chernihiv, escalation looming

OSINT: US Army uses up most long-range PrSM and ATACMS missiles in Iran war

OSINT: Spain Blocks Italy's Plan for Offshore Migration Centers

OSINT: Western Union launches Solana-based USDPT wallet and Visa card in 37 markets

OSINT: Rogue Russian Soldier Kills Own Troops and Civilians in Crimea

OSINT: EU eyes tighter borders, more aid to Morocco, says von der Leyen

OSINT: ⬇️🇷🇺#пшеница #зерно #россия