2026-08-11

Cotton volume spike - 409.4× the 20-day average (12,956 vs 31 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 3.9× the 20-day average (102,589 vs 26,319 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 2.6× the 20-day average (17 vs 6 avg)

OSINT: EU MP warns Russian money is influencing EU officials

OSINT: BNPL adoption spikes: 10% of adults use it for grocery purchases

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?" moved +23pp in 24h to 36%

OSINT: Gold spikes to $4,400 as markets await US inflation data

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?": $20,924 in orders from 10 wallets absorbed at the 90% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction

Gold +2.54%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Trump Calls for Iranian Reparations for U.S. Casualties

OSINT: US crude oil inventories hit 40-year low, down 116M barrels YTD

OSINT: US forces disable Panama-flagged vessel attempting Iran blockade breach

Gold +1.68%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Canada, US Trade Officials Draft Deal to Pitch Trump Next Week

OSINT: Ukrainian drones ignite Russia's Orsk refinery, damaging key processing unit

Oil +1.34%: significant gain on the session

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 254,489 contracts, 65.20% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets its conditions

OSINT: Major Hedge Funds File 13Fs, Triggering Market Scrutiny

OSINT: Iran Escalates Drone & Missile Strikes on U.S. Bases, Targeting Air Defenses

OSINT: US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Hit 40-Year Low, Bloomberg Reports

OSINT: Iran Threatens Air Force One, Israel Alerts US, Trump Flown Separately

OSINT: Spokane Airport Ground Stop as ATC Evacuates Amid Nearby Fire

OSINT: Oil tanker DEED21 returns, mission likely cancelled

OSINT: US, Canada Trade Officials Draft Deal for Trump Presentation Next Week

OSINT: Trump Announces Release of U.S. Marine Held in Russia Since 2022

OSINT: Ukrainian FPV Drone Ambush Threatens Russian Convoy Supply Route

OSINT: Norwegian Insurance Dispute Moved to Russian Courts Over Objections

OSINT: Trump claims Iran privately backs deal, publicly resists

OSINT: Ukrainian Airstrike Hits Russian Drone Operators Targeting Kherson

OSINT: US says 9 m b/d exiting Strait of Hormuz, exceeding tracker data

Gold +1.81%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Oman-Iran Talks Advance, Qatar Reports Positive Feedback

OSINT: Russian cargo ships adopt dazzle camouflage in Black Sea after drone attacks

Oil +1.18%: significant gain on the session

Prediction market repriced: "Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-08-11?" moved -66pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate sp" moved +32pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-08-11?" moved -40pp in 24h to 17%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?" moved +21pp in 24h to 63%

Polymarket order flow on "Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South": 8-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,021 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": $41,787 in orders from 25 wallets absorbed at the 82% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?" moved +21pp in 24h to 54%

Prediction market repriced: "Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-08-11?" moved +26pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will NEC win on 2026-08-11?" moved -24pp in 24h to 11%

Prediction market repriced: "Will SK Brann win on 2026-08-11?" moved +52pp in 24h to 83%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($17,533 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-08-11?" moved +29pp in 24h to 62%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se": 6-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($18,443 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $13,708 in orders from 44 wallets absorbed at the 57% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($46,577 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": $15,282 in orders from 9 wallets absorbed at the 86% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $43,641 in orders from 21 wallets absorbed at the 57% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Unión win on 2026-08-10?" moved -55pp in 24h to 10%

OSINT: US Government Hiring Surge Hits 823k Openings, Highest Since 2025

OSINT: US forces disable Panama-flagged vessel attempting Iran blockade breach

OSINT: US forces disable Panama-flagged vessel attempting Iran blockade breach

Prediction market repriced: "Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?" moved -16pp in 24h to 9%

OSINT: Ukrainian 21st Brigade FPV drones down Russian UAVs with improvised weapons

OSINT: Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets its conditions

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($25,393 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?" moved +19pp in 24h to 83%

OSINT: Iran Escalates Drone & Missile Strikes on U.S. Bases, Targeting Air Defenses

Prediction market repriced: "Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?" moved -17pp in 24h to 70%

OSINT: Iran Threatens Air Force One, Israel Alerts US, Trump Flown Separately

OSINT: Telecom Glitch Linked to Marine One Near-Miss at Reagan Airport

OSINT: Oil tanker DEED21 returns, mission likely cancelled

OSINT: US, Canada Trade Officials Draft Deal for Trump Presentation Next Week

OSINT: Trump Announces Release of U.S. Marine Held in Russia Since 2022

OSINT: Ukrainian FPV Drone Ambush Threatens Russian Convoy Supply Route

OSINT: Ukrainian FPV Drone Ambush Threatens Russian Convoy Supply Route

OSINT: EU MP warns Russian money is influencing EU officials

OSINT: Norwegian Insurance Dispute Moved to Russian Courts Over Objections

OSINT: Trump claims Iran privately backs deal, publicly resists

Prediction market repriced: "Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-08-11?" moved +18pp in 24h to 86%

OSINT: Ukrainian Airstrike Hits Russian Drone Operators Targeting Kherson

OSINT: Pentagon urges defense firms to accelerate weapons production

OSINT: US says 9 m b/d exiting Strait of Hormuz, exceeding tracker data

Prediction market repriced: "Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?" moved +15pp in 24h to 17%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" moved +17pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?" moved +18pp in 24h to 97%

OSINT: Oman-Iran Talks Advance, Qatar Reports Positive Feedback

OSINT: Russian cargo ships adopt dazzle camouflage in Black Sea after drone attacks

OSINT: Russian cargo ships adopt dazzle camouflage in Black Sea after drone attacks

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" moved +17pp in 24h to 24%

AVAX funding -0.0250% · 1th percentile of its 205d Binance history

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,752 contracts, 18.63% of open interest (+2.7σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 11?" moved -38pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Will XRP dip to $1.00 in August?" moved +24pp in 24h to 93%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11?" moved -22pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 11?" moved -22pp in 24h to 60%

OSINT: ProCap CEO predicts Bitcoin rise as US keeps printing money

OSINT: ChatGPT Desktop App for Linux Enters Preview, Adds Work & Codex

OSINT: Stablecoin Card Spending Hits $1.04B Record in July

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.51x): on-chain trade volume 0.51x liquidity

OSINT: Bitcoin Custody Split: 45.6% Self, 36.1% Exchanges, 13.9% Other, 4.4% Unmined

OSINT: Large XRP Wallets Grow 32% as Market Cap Drops 29%

OSINT: DePIN Shifts from Crypto Trend to Real-World Infrastructure

OSINT: Solana Mobile Launches 'Shipped' Guide for Seeker Users on X

OSINT: SEC poised to approve tokenized stock trading exemption by Friday

OSINT: SEC eases rules for data-center ABS, dropping key disclosures

OSINT: Solana Summit Nigeria Highlights Tokenized Stocks, RWAs, Global Capital

OSINT: SolanaFloor TradingFloor Live Session Scheduled for Wednesday 11am ET

OSINT: Short-term Bitcoin holders dump ~19,200 BTC to exchanges, incurring losses

OSINT: Bitcoin Holds Near $63.4K as ETF Inflows Outpace New Mining Supply

OSINT: 🇺🇸 LATEST: Invitation Homes CEO says the institutional homebuying ban will lower

OSINT: JUST IN: 🥇 Peter Schiff says #BItcoin is acting as gold&apos;s inverse amid war

OSINT: Strategy to Resume Bitcoin Purchases This Year After 7-Week Pause

OSINT: US Credit Card Debt Jumps $21B to $1.26T in Q2, Fed Says

OSINT: Trump backs FIFA chief Infantino, warns against removal

OSINT: CFTC to Push Digital Asset Rulemaking Regardless of Clarity Act Outcome

OSINT: Flowdesk Secures Full Broker-Dealer License in Dubai

OSINT: July 2026 Spot Trading Volume Plummets 21.7% to $429B

OSINT: EU MP warns Russian money is influencing EU officials

OSINT: Stablecoin Card Spending Jumps 16% in July, Hits $1.03B Record

OSINT: OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap Departs After 8 Years

OSINT: 📊: Solana ETFs on Track to Record Strongest Weekly Inflows Since May ✍️: @solace

OSINT: Sellers are getting exhausted, but have not reached levels we saw in past bitcoi

AVAX funding -0.0217% · 2th percentile of its 205d Binance history

OSINT: Apollo Slok's warns AI profits funded by investors, not customers

OSINT: Solana daily transactions hit record 171.9M on Aug 10

OSINT: AI Agents Cost $6-$8/hr, Undercutting Offshore Labor, a16z Says

OSINT: Russia Proposes $3,645 Annual Crypto Purchase Cap for Retail Investors

OSINT: SolsticeFi Introduces STRC Yield Product Amid Season 2 $SLX Airdrop

OSINT: Peter Schiff Calls Bitcoin Speculative, Not a Monetary Metal

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.91x): on-chain trade volume 0.91x liquidity

OSINT: Trump Media Announces Early Adoption of Truth API for Faster Post Access

ETH liquidations totaled $5.9M in the past hour, 100% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

OSINT: ETF Flows Shift: 1-Day Outflows, 7-Day Inflows for BTC & ETH

OSINT: Trading firms shell out up to $100K/month for real-time Truth Social intel

Activist 13D filing, engage in discussions

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?" moved -46pp in 24h to 6%

TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/ search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

7 congress members traded LTH: net selling (0B/0S)

OSINT: US Government Hiring Surge Hits 823k Openings, Highest Since 2025

OSINT: Chinese Media Reports Surge in Tech Earnings Multipliers

OSINT: Bipedal, Conversational Robots Set to Transform Car Factories

OSINT: Stablecoin Card Spending Hits $1.04B Record in July

OSINT: ChatGPT Desktop App for Linux Enters Preview, Adds Work & Codex

OSINT: Solana Mobile Launches 'Shipped' Guide for Seeker Users on X

OSINT: DePIN Shifts from Crypto Trend to Real-World Infrastructure

OSINT: SEC poised to approve tokenized stock trading exemption by Friday

OSINT: Ukrainian 21st Brigade FPV drones down Russian UAVs with improvised weapons

OSINT: U.S. Daily Marijuana Use Overtakes Alcohol and Tobacco, Survey Shows

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 14,639 contracts, 4.82% of open interest (-2.1σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

Phillips 66 search volume spiked +58 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: SEC eases rules for data-center ABS, dropping key disclosures

OSINT: Google Gemini App Surpasses 1 Billion Monthly Users

OSINT: CoreWeave and Cava post earnings, beating revenue estimates

OSINT: Solana Summit Nigeria Highlights Tokenized Stocks, RWAs, Global Capital

OSINT: Lumentum Beats Q2 Estimates on $1B Revenue and $3.23 EPS

OSINT: Major Hedge Funds File 13Fs, Triggering Market Scrutiny

OSINT: US Credit Card Debt Jumps $21B to $1.26T in Q2, Fed Says

OSINT: Spokane Airport Ground Stop as ATC Evacuates Amid Nearby Fire

OSINT: Telecom Glitch Linked to Marine One Near-Miss at Reagan Airport

OSINT: Investors Cut Down Hedging as Put-Call Skew Hits 1-Month Low

OSINT: Trump backs FIFA chief Infantino, warns against removal

OSINT: Stablecoin Card Spending Jumps 16% in July, Hits $1.03B Record

OSINT: OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap Departs After 8 Years

TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/ search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

7 congress members traded LTH: net selling (0B/0S)

OSINT: Pentagon urges defense firms to accelerate weapons production

OSINT: Apollo Slok's warns AI profits funded by investors, not customers

OSINT: AI Agents Cost $6-$8/hr, Undercutting Offshore Labor, a16z Says

OSINT: Trump Media Announces Early Adoption of Truth API for Faster Post Access

OSINT: Unitree's $900M Shanghai IPO Over 8,000x Oversubscribed

OSINT: US Job Numbers Revised Downward for 21 of Last 30 Months, Cutting 1.05M Jobs

Phillips 66 search volume spiked +58 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Trading firms shell out up to $100K/month for real-time Truth Social intel

OSINT: Change.org hides petition targeting FAZ journalist on Russian killings

OSINT: ProCap CEO predicts Bitcoin rise as US keeps printing money

OSINT: US Government Hiring Surge Hits 823k Openings, Highest Since 2025

OSINT: US crude oil inventories hit 40-year low, down 116M barrels YTD

OSINT: Stablecoin Card Spending Hits $1.04B Record in July

OSINT: Chinese Media Reports Surge in Tech Earnings Multipliers

OSINT: Ukrainian drones ignite Russia's Orsk refinery, damaging key processing unit

OSINT: Canada, US Trade Officials Draft Deal to Pitch Trump Next Week

OSINT: SEC poised to approve tokenized stock trading exemption by Friday

OSINT: South Africa Unemployment Hits 33.6%, Four-Year High

OSINT: U.S. Daily Marijuana Use Overtakes Alcohol and Tobacco, Survey Shows

OSINT: Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets its conditions

OSINT: 🇺🇸 LATEST: Invitation Homes CEO says the institutional homebuying ban will lower

OSINT: Iran Escalates Drone & Missile Strikes on U.S. Bases, Targeting Air Defenses

OSINT: US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Hit 40-Year Low, Bloomberg Reports

OSINT: Iran Threatens Air Force One, Israel Alerts US, Trump Flown Separately

OSINT: US Credit Card Debt Jumps $21B to $1.26T in Q2, Fed Says

OSINT: Trump backs FIFA chief Infantino, warns against removal

OSINT: Oil tanker DEED21 returns, mission likely cancelled

OSINT: Investors Cut Down Hedging as Put-Call Skew Hits 1-Month Low

OSINT: US, Canada Trade Officials Draft Deal for Trump Presentation Next Week

OSINT: Trump Announces Release of U.S. Marine Held in Russia Since 2022

OSINT: Stablecoin Card Spending Jumps 16% in July, Hits $1.03B Record

OSINT: EU MP warns Russian money is influencing EU officials

OSINT: Trump claims Iran privately backs deal, publicly resists

OSINT: Ukrainian Airstrike Hits Russian Drone Operators Targeting Kherson

OSINT: Trump Tower project announced for Hyderabad, 450 luxury units

OSINT: US says 9 m b/d exiting Strait of Hormuz, exceeding tracker data

OSINT: Oman-Iran Talks Advance, Qatar Reports Positive Feedback

OSINT: Unitree's $900M Shanghai IPO Over 8,000x Oversubscribed

OSINT: US Job Numbers Revised Downward for 21 of Last 30 Months, Cutting 1.05M Jobs

OSINT: US Travel Advisory Flags Western Europe Over High Crime, Deems Eastern Europe Sa