2026-08-10

Cotton volume spike - 635.1× the 20-day average (16,448 vs 25 avg)

Kansas Winter Wheat: crop water stress detected (4.0σ above baseline) - potential ZW=F supply pressure

Heating Oil rose 6.7% vs prior close ($3.90 → $4.16)

Sugar No. 11 volume spike - 2.5× the 20-day average (167,094 vs 65,733 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 2.8× the 20-day average (73,643 vs 26,323 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 2.7× the 20-day average (18 vs 6 avg)

OSINT: Silver surges 107% as crypto plunges 58%

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": 11-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($24,311 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

OSINT: Copper Market Review Highlights Recent Price Movements

Brazil Minas Gerais: crop water stress detected (3.0σ above baseline) - potential KC=F supply pressure

OSINT: China releases key economic data, markets react

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?": $14,035 in orders from 23 wallets absorbed at the 86% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($12,653 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

OSINT: Colombia Recognizes Israeli Sovereignty Over Golan Heights

Cocoa rose 4.1% vs prior close ($5,782.00 → $6,018.00)

Natural Gas rose 4.3% vs prior close ($2.66 → $2.78)

Brent Crude Oil rose 5.0% vs prior close ($83.55 → $87.76)

Silver rose 4.1% vs prior close ($63.33 → $65.93)

WTI Crude Oil rose 5.1% vs prior close ($78.18 → $82.19)

OSINT: Colombian militia drones strike government building in Rioblanco amid clashes

OSINT: US intel warns of rising Russian provocations against NATO

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 254,489 contracts, 65.20% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Crude oil price 1st of January: $57.3 Now: $82.2

OSINT: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drops below 300M barrels, lowest since 1983

OSINT: Deadly Colombia Earthquake Claims Over 111 Lives

OSINT: UK to levy mileage tax on electric cars from 2028

OSINT: US Oil and Gas Prices Surge, Adding to Inflation Pressures

OSINT: Colombia eliminates Front 28 leader Hernando Forero Mosquera

OSINT: Brent crude climbs to $86.89 a barrel

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?" moved -15pp in 24h to 32%

OSINT: Iran threatens closure of Strait of Hormuz, raising oil supply concerns

OSINT: OSINT Report Details Latest Deployment of Military Assets

OSINT: Ukrainian drones hit Russia's ZapSibNeftekhim petrochemical plant

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?" moved +18pp in 24h to 62%

OSINT: Historic Energy Supply Shock Hits Strait of Hormuz, Markets Remain Resilient

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?" moved -18pp in 24h to 63%

OSINT: Russia brings in thousands of North Korean women for labor shortages

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-08-10?" moved +58pp in 24h to 96%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Goiás EC win on 2026-08-10?" moved +25pp in 24h to 80%

china_us_west shipping +11.4%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" moved +35pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Plymouth Argyle FC win on 2026-08-10?" moved -36pp in 24h to 32%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": $11,713 in orders from 11 wallets absorbed at the 83% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Volendam win on 2026-08-10?" moved +20pp in 24h to 70%

china_us_west shipping +11.4%, potential inflation signal

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 6-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($21,719 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?" moved +26pp in 24h to 82%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($25,375 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($17,397 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $14,706 in orders from 7 wallets absorbed at the 38% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict

Prediction market repriced: "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?" moved -22pp in 24h to 22%

china_us_west shipping +11.4%, potential inflation signal

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": $20,155 in orders from 9 wallets absorbed at the 46% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($24,539 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?" moved -36pp in 24h to 28%

china_us_west shipping +11.4%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?" moved -26pp in 24h to 34%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-09?" moved -26pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will América de Cali win on 2026-08-08?" moved +34pp in 24h to 72%

Polymarket order flow on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?": 5-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($14,929 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction m

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?" moved -26pp in 24h to 26%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Nashville SC win on 2026-08-09?" moved +21pp in 24h to 80%

OSINT: AI Booking Bot Exploits Gym Software, Removes Member from Waitlist

OSINT: Two police officers stabbed in Toulouse, attacker linked to Islamist extremism

OSINT: Colombia Recognizes Israeli Sovereignty Over Golan Heights

OSINT: Colombian militia drones strike government building in Rioblanco amid clashes

OSINT: US intel warns of rising Russian provocations against NATO

OSINT: Rocket Lab meets forecasts; Hims beats revenue but misses EPS

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($25,348 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" moved +15pp in 24h to 58%

OSINT: US Defense Leaders Announce Major Investment in South Carolina

Polymarket order flow on "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?": $21,209 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 86% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

OSINT: Iran threatens closure of Strait of Hormuz, raising oil supply concerns

OSINT: OSINT Report Details Latest Deployment of Military Assets

OSINT: USAF C-17 Globemaster III REACH 450 moves from Germany to RAF Lakenheath

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?" moved -16pp in 24h to 22%

OSINT: German far-right AFD hits 30% in polls, sparking Europe-wide right-wing surge

OSINT: Historic Energy Supply Shock Hits Strait of Hormuz, Markets Remain Resilient

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" moved -20pp in 24h to 46%

OSINT: USAF KC-135 departs Mildenhall after technical delay, heads to D323 mission

OSINT: Russia brings in thousands of North Korean women for labor shortages

OSINT: Russia brings in thousands of North Korean women for labor shortages

Activist 13D filing, shareholder value

Activist 13D filing, dividend

Prediction market repriced: "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 10?" moved -38pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?" moved -20pp in 24h to 40%

Polymarket order flow on "Will GameStop acquire eBay?": $169,657 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 88% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

OSINT: OpenAI Executes $7B Share Buyback via Employee Tender

7 congress members traded LTH: net selling (0B/0S)

OSINT: AI Booking Bot Exploits Gym Software, Removes Member from Waitlist

OSINT: Country discovers first independent germanium deposit at Us River Mine

OSINT: Stars Shawn Yue, Sun Nan Enter Survivor Games on Sina Finance

OSINT: Global record highs have arrived. The number of countries in the MSCI All Countr

OSINT: HK Middle Schoolers Visit Beijing to Study Robotics and AI

OSINT: Exodus Reports $18.6M Q2 Net Loss, Reverses Prior Year Profit

OSINT: Philippines Outsourcing Industry to Hit $42B by 2026, AI Boosts Workforce

OSINT: Meta to Open Weights of 30B Muse Glimmer Model, Muse Spark 1.2 Soon

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 14,639 contracts, 4.82% of open interest (-2.1σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

Phillips 66 search volume spiked +58 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: China's Central Bank Releases 15th Five-Year Plan to Advance Digital Yuan

OSINT: Rocket Lab meets forecasts; Hims beats revenue but misses EPS

OSINT: US Defense Leaders Announce Major Investment in South Carolina

OSINT: UK to levy mileage tax on electric cars from 2028

OSINT: Bitcoin mining difficulty falls 18.5%, biggest drop since 2021 China ban

OSINT: NSPK flags internet Visa/Mastercard payment issues amid sanctions

OSINT: Wall Street Giants Team with Nvidia on $500B AI Financing Deal

7 congress members traded LTH: net selling (0B/0S)

OSINT: Dormant Bitcoin Frenzy in August Crushes July Activity Post-Coldcard Exploit

OSINT: SpaceX shares bounce back to near IPO price after Q2 revenue beat

OSINT: US backs coordinated yen-buying as BOJ hints at September rate hike

OSINT: Microsoft to unveil next-gen Maia 300 AI chip in September

OSINT: Fed Governor Warsh Completes Required Divestitures, Including Crypto

Polymarket order flow on "Will GameStop acquire eBay?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,234 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

OSINT: Unusual Whales Launch Live Trading Show to Track Options Flow

OSINT: German far-right AFD hits 30% in polls, sparking Europe-wide right-wing surge

OSINT: TSMC reports 45% YoY sales surge in July on AI chip demand

FingerMotion, Inc. 8-K references BTC treasury activity · filed 2026-08-10

Strive, Inc. (ASST, SATA) 8-K references 6,236 BTC treasury activity · filed 2026-08-10

BITMINE IMMERSION TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (BMNP, BMNR) 8-K references ETH treasury activity · filed 2026-08-10

POWERCOMPUTE, INC. 8-K references 307 BTC treasury activity · filed 2026-08-10

OSINT: USAF KC-135 departs Mildenhall after technical delay, heads to D323 mission

OSINT: Strategy sells 1,690 BTC, buys back $STRC shares, raises $653M

OSINT: Solana hits 1.11B weekly transactions, second week over 1B

OSINT: Intel shares drop 5% after $15B stock issuance for AI expansion

OSINT: Women surpass men in US payroll jobs for first time since Great Recession

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 18.1%, EPS $-0.59 vs $-0.4997 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 33.7%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.3018 estimate

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,752 contracts, 18.63% of open interest (+2.7σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

USDC/USDT has $45.5M 24h volume on $884K liquidity (51x turnover): thin market, elevated slippage

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?" moved -24pp in 24h to 2%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?" moved -21pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 10?" moved -28pp in 24h to 48%

STRK funding -0.0203% · 1th percentile of its 120d Binance history

Polymarket order flow on "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 10?": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($14,377 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

OSINT: Trump Media reports $900M Bitcoin holding after July purchase

OSINT: Global record highs have arrived. The number of countries in the MSCI All Countr

OSINT: Exodus Reports $18.6M Q2 Net Loss, Reverses Prior Year Profit

OSINT: Peter Schiff calls Bitcoin 'anti-gold', expects drop as gold and silver rise

OSINT: Meta to Open Weights of 30B Muse Glimmer Model, Muse Spark 1.2 Soon

OSINT: China's Central Bank Releases 15th Five-Year Plan to Advance Digital Yuan

OSINT: DefiLlama Launches Integrated ThorChain Dashboard for DeFi Insights

OSINT: Solana community proposes SIMD-0553 to revamp incentive structure

OSINT: Crypto ETFs see strong inflows: BTC +1.7k, ETH +30k in 1 day

OSINT: Bitcoin mining difficulty falls 18.5%, biggest drop since 2021 China ban

OSINT: NSPK flags internet Visa/Mastercard payment issues amid sanctions

OSINT: Wall Street Giants Team with Nvidia on $500B AI Financing Deal

OSINT: Peter Schiff says Strategy is dumping Bitcoin for dollars as lenders favor fiat

OSINT: PumpFun Protocol Fees Top $10M in First Week

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?" moved -17pp in 24h to 46%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?" moved +18pp in 24h to 74%

OSINT: Coinbase exec says talks continue on Sep 15 CLARITY Act vote

OSINT: Dormant Bitcoin Frenzy in August Crushes July Activity Post-Coldcard Exploit

OSINT: Solana records 30 months of uninterrupted uptime

OSINT: Fed Governor Warsh Completes Required Divestitures, Including Crypto

ETH liquidations totaled $5.2M in the past hour, 100% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

OSINT: Peter Schiff reports Bitcoin yield falls to 1.7% after heavy BTC sales

OSINT: JUST IN: Bitcoin is bouncing off the 200 weekly moving average, which historical

OSINT: FlashTrade Platform Shuts Down Over Shrinking Market and Ethical Concerns

OSINT: 🔥 BULLISH: BitMine has bought $ETH every week since June 30, 2025, marking 58 st

Polymarket order flow on "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,178 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

OSINT: BTC stabilizes near $65k amid mixed on-chain signals

OSINT: Marathon Digital Sells $1.6B in Bitcoin, Retains $2.3B Holdings

OSINT: Crypto trader 0x2be3 cuts $KAITO long, incurs $2M loss

OSINT: Strive adds 147 BTC, total now 20,167 BTC

OSINT: Unusual Whales Launch Live Trading Show to Track Options Flow

OSINT: Strategy sells 1,690 BTC for $108.6M, holdings drop to 840,447

OSINT: Strategy Sells 1,690 BTC for $108.6M, Funds STRC Buybacks

OSINT: MicroStrategy sells 1,690 BTC, total 6,916 BTC in six weeks

OSINT: Strategy sells 1,690 BTC, buys back $STRC shares, raises $653M

OSINT: Solana hits 1.11B weekly transactions, second week over 1B

OSINT: BitMine Boosts ETH Holdings to 5.8M, Now Controls ~4.8% of Supply

OSINT: Country discovers first independent germanium deposit at Us River Mine

OSINT: Government convenes parity committee, scrutinizes upcoming strike

OSINT: Global record highs have arrived. The number of countries in the MSCI All Countr

OSINT: Philippines Outsourcing Industry to Hit $42B by 2026, AI Boosts Workforce

OSINT: Two police officers stabbed in Toulouse, attacker linked to Islamist extremism

OSINT: Colombia Recognizes Israeli Sovereignty Over Golan Heights

OSINT: Colombian militia drones strike government building in Rioblanco amid clashes

OSINT: US intel warns of rising Russian provocations against NATO

OSINT: Crude oil price 1st of January: $57.3 Now: $82.2

OSINT: China's Central Bank Releases 15th Five-Year Plan to Advance Digital Yuan

OSINT: Deadly Colombia Earthquake Claims Over 111 Lives

OSINT: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drops below 300M barrels, lowest since 1983

OSINT: UK to levy mileage tax on electric cars from 2028

OSINT: US Oil and Gas Prices Surge, Adding to Inflation Pressures

OSINT: Wall Street Giants Team with Nvidia on $500B AI Financing Deal

OSINT: NSPK flags internet Visa/Mastercard payment issues amid sanctions

OSINT: Banks cut OFZ auction participation, NFO takes lead

OSINT: Peter Schiff says Strategy is dumping Bitcoin for dollars as lenders favor fiat

OSINT: Brent crude climbs to $86.89 a barrel

OSINT: Colombia eliminates Front 28 leader Hernando Forero Mosquera

OSINT: Iran threatens closure of Strait of Hormuz, raising oil supply concerns

OSINT: US backs coordinated yen-buying as BOJ hints at September rate hike

OSINT: Peter Schiff reports Bitcoin yield falls to 1.7% after heavy BTC sales

OSINT: Ukrainian drones hit Russia's ZapSibNeftekhim petrochemical plant

OSINT: German far-right AFD hits 30% in polls, sparking Europe-wide right-wing surge

OSINT: TSMC reports 45% YoY sales surge in July on AI chip demand

OSINT: Historic Energy Supply Shock Hits Strait of Hormuz, Markets Remain Resilient

OSINT: Russia brings in thousands of North Korean women for labor shortages

OSINT: Women surpass men in US payroll jobs for first time since Great Recession