2026-08-13

Soybeans volume spike - 4.5× the 20-day average (100,984 vs 22,331 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 920.9× the 20-day average (21,779 vs 23 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 11.4× the 20-day average (71 vs 6 avg)

OSINT: CIA doubts Israeli intel on Iran, prompting Trump plane swap

Kansas (Wichita): drought conditions detected - potential wheat supply impact

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($59,959 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predic

OSINT: Oil Prices Under $100 Dampens Macro Hedge Demand

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?": 6-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($13,067 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": $12,436 in orders from 19 wallets absorbed at the 46% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: RATETK proposes business support amid UAV attacks

OSINT: Tiny Spanish Village Turmiel Awaits 44-Year-Old Eclipse

Heating Oil fell 4.4% vs prior close ($4.30 → $4.12)

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 254,489 contracts, 65.20% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Oil -2.64%: significant decline on the session

OSINT: AOC jumps to 2nd in 2028 presidential odds, 13% chance to win

OSINT: Canadians' tax bills outpace basic needs spending in 2025, report says

Oil -2.55%: significant decline on the session

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($19,348 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Prediction market repriced: "Will RSC Anderlecht win on 2026-08-13?" moved +62pp in 24h to 94%

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": 9-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($16,432 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?" moved +34pp in 24h to 57%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Górnik Zabrze win on 2026-08-13?" moved +29pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-08-13?" moved +21pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Nigel Farage win 60-70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?" moved -34pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?" moved +45pp in 24h to 60%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?" moved -36pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by Au" moved +34pp in 24h to 60%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($23,600 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $44,084 in orders from 11 wallets absorbed at the 68% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?" moved -30pp in 24h to 5%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?" moved -21pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CF América win on 2026-08-13?" moved -20pp in 24h to 44%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?" moved +36pp in 24h to 86%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-12?" moved -35pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-12?" moved -28pp in 24h to 2%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($35,652 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Nigel Farage win 70-80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?" moved +15pp in 24h to 58%

OSINT: AOC jumps to 2nd in 2028 presidential odds, 13% chance to win

OSINT: French Rafales and A400M Fly Over Europe During Solar Eclipse

Prediction market repriced: "Will Count Binface win 20-30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?" moved -18pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?" moved -18pp in 24h to 33%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" moved -15pp in 24h to 38%

Polymarket order flow on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?": 4-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($11,337 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction m

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" moved +18pp in 24h to 37%

Prediction market repriced: "Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?" moved +19pp in 24h to 92%

OSINT: Anthropic reports AI agents engaged in self-sabotaging turf wars with malware

Prediction market repriced: "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?" moved -16pp in 24h to 24%

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,752 contracts, 18.63% of open interest (+2.7σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

BCH funding -0.0772% · 0th percentile of its 207d Binance history

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?" moved -23pp in 24h to 20%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 13?" moved -40pp in 24h to 20%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 13?" moved -24pp in 24h to 24%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?" moved +27pp in 24h to 78%

OSINT: Delio CEO Sentenced to 15 Years for $50M Crypto Fraud

OSINT: SEC Delays Vote on Crypto Exemptions for Startup Fundraising

OSINT: VanEck sees Bitcoin bottom, hints at scaling in

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?" moved +15pp in 24h to 73%

OSINT: SharpLink to Stake $200M ETH via Lido, Anchorage as Custodian

OSINT: Silvia files five ETFs on Bitcoin discounts, Musk firms, Nvidia interview

OSINT: Forward Industries Buys 254K SOL Amid Solana Treasury Competition

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.67x): on-chain trade volume 0.67x liquidity

ARB funding -0.0221% · 2th percentile of its 207d Binance history

OSINT: AOC jumps to 2nd in 2028 presidential odds, 13% chance to win

OSINT: Bitcoin dips below $63k, $48M liquidations hit longs

OSINT: CFTC Forms Innovation Advisory Committee on Crypto, AI, Prediction Markets

OSINT: Solana Mobile dApp Store Simplifies App Shipping, Boosts Ecosystem

OSINT: Crypto trader 0xb37f opens $37M 20x long on XYZ token

Prediction market repriced: "Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?" moved -18pp in 24h to 14%

BCH funding -0.0268% · 5th percentile of its 207d Binance history

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?" moved -16pp in 24h to 70%

OSINT: CFTC Issues Advisory on Certification, Flags Filing Gaps in Prediction Markets

OSINT: NVIDIA CEO says A100 GPUs mission-capable through 2029

OSINT: User loses $100K after copying poisoned crypto wallet address

OSINT: Anthropic reports AI agents engaged in self-sabotaging turf wars with malware

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?" moved +20pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" moved -27pp in 24h to 60%

Activist 13D filing, engage in discussions

OSINT: Apple opens Houston AI server & Mac Mini plant

OSINT: SEC Delays Vote on Crypto Exemptions for Startup Fundraising

OSINT: Silvia files five ETFs on Bitcoin discounts, Musk firms, Nvidia interview

OSINT: SharpLink to Stake $200M ETH via Lido, Anchorage as Custodian

OSINT: Applied Materials Beats Q2 Estimates on Revenue and EPS

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 14,639 contracts, 4.82% of open interest (-2.1σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

1 congress member filed 6 trades in CPAY: net selling (0B/6S)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?" moved +18pp in 24h to 69%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?" moved +19pp in 24h to 60%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?" moved +18pp in 24h to 44%

AAPL RSI 28.4, oversold (crossed below 30)

OSINT: Solana Mobile dApp Store Simplifies App Shipping, Boosts Ecosystem

OSINT: Tech sector breadth hits 75% above 200-day MA, best since Oct 2024

OSINT: AOC jumps to 2nd in 2028 presidential odds, 13% chance to win

OSINT: French Rafales and A400M Fly Over Europe During Solar Eclipse

OSINT: CFTC Forms Innovation Advisory Committee on Crypto, AI, Prediction Markets

OSINT: Canadians' tax bills outpace basic needs spending in 2025, report says

1 congress member filed 9 trades in LTH: net buying (9B/0S)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" moved +17pp in 24h to 28%

Bit Digital, Inc 8-K references 164,310 ETH treasury activity · filed 2026-08-13

QQQ RSI 70.2, overbought (crossed above 70)

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 30.5%, EPS $0.36 vs $0.5182 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.6%, EPS $0.49 vs $0.4029 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 154.7%, EPS $0.04 vs $-0.0731 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 133.4%, EPS $-0.50 vs $-0.2142 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 19.0%, EPS $-0.40 vs $-0.4939 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 39.0%, EPS $0.0953 vs $0.1562 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 42.9%, EPS $0.20 vs $0.35 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.9%, EPS $0.16 vs $0.1313 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 24.2%, EPS $0.58 vs $0.765 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 83.3%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.1091 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.7%, EPS $2.92 vs $2.5449 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 8.9%, EPS $0.66 vs $0.7242 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 272.5%, EPS $-0.38 vs $-0.102 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.6%, EPS $-0.09 vs $-0.1092 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 31.1%, EPS $176.88 vs $256.6915 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $-1.58 vs $-2.0026 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 91.0%, EPS $0.31 vs $0.1623 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 82.1%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.0714 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 68.8%, EPS $-0.41 vs $-1.3138 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 119.0%, EPS $-0.05 vs $0.2625 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 34.4%, EPS $-0.19 vs $-0.1414 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 83.0%, EPS $82.70 vs $45.1874 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 68.1%, EPS $0.10 vs $0.0595 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.6%, EPS $-0.59 vs $-0.5195 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 22.6%, EPS $-0.26 vs $-0.336 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 32.4%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.074 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 151.9%, EPS $0.46 vs $-0.8859 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 41.8%, EPS $-0.34 vs $-0.2397 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 20.2%, EPS $0.32 vs $0.4012 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 113.0%, EPS $-6.62 vs $-3.1081 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.8%, EPS $2.29 vs $2.1238 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.2%, EPS $-0.30 vs $-0.2651 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 127.2%, EPS $0.73 vs $0.3213 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 35.7%, EPS $-0.18 vs $-0.1326 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.0%, EPS $-1.97 vs $-2.0967 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.6%, EPS $4.33 vs $3.6512 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 76.7%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.2142 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 15.9%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.1122 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.6%, EPS $-0.21 vs $-0.1989 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 78.2%, EPS $-2.32 vs $-1.3022 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 39.4%, EPS $0.16 vs $0.1148 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 42.5%, EPS $-1.09 vs $-0.765 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 32.4%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.2958 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 30.7%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.153 estimate

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 78%

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.5%, EPS $-0.25 vs $-0.2732 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 33.2%, EPS $0.25 vs $0.1877 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 26.7%, EPS $-0.3113 vs $-0.4248 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 85.7%, EPS $-0.03 vs $-0.2095 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.4%, EPS $147.50 vs $138.6781 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 19.1%, EPS $2.91 vs $2.4443 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 18.2%, EPS $0.2649 vs $0.2242 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.7%, EPS $-0.34 vs $-0.3807 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 64.5%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.3661 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.1%, EPS $-0.58 vs $-0.6242 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.6%, EPS $0.41 vs $0.3456 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 49.2%, EPS $-0.35 vs $-0.2346 estimate

Bond issued at elevated rate 6.5%, above the credit-stress threshold

AAPL RSI 28.7, oversold (crossed below 30)

OSINT: NVIDIA CEO says A100 GPUs mission-capable through 2029

OSINT: Nikkei stalls as BOJ rate hike expectations loom

OSINT: Anthropic reports AI agents engaged in self-sabotaging turf wars with malware

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.4%, EPS $-0.39 vs $-0.4505 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.4%, EPS $80.58 vs $75.75 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 78.6%, EPS $0.06 vs $0.2805 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 10.8%, EPS $0.9801 vs $1.0982 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 8.1%, EPS $-0.30 vs $-0.3264 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 9.3%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.1189 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 19.6%, EPS $0.54 vs $0.4515 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.3%, EPS $0.86 vs $0.8171 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 6.4%, EPS $0.35 vs $0.374 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 27.4%, EPS $0.58 vs $0.4553 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 45.0%, EPS $192.74 vs $132.9125 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 122.8%, EPS $-0.36 vs $1.581 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 10.7%, EPS $1.33 vs $1.2012 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 74.1%, EPS $1.70 vs $0.9767 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 130.6%, EPS $0.11 vs $-0.3591 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 74.7%, EPS $0.20 vs $0.1145 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 390.2%, EPS $-0.25 vs $-0.051 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 257.6%, EPS $-1.55 vs $-0.4335 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.1%, EPS $-0.19 vs $-0.2237 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.0%, EPS $-0.28 vs $-0.2617 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $0.17 vs $0.1404 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 107.3%, EPS $0.02 vs $-0.2737 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 159.2%, EPS $0.0418 vs $-0.0707 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 6.9%, EPS $0.28 vs $0.3009 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 40.8%, EPS $-0.54 vs $-0.3835 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 28.7%, EPS $96.725 vs $75.1359 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 20.5%, EPS $0.43 vs $0.5406 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 439.6%, EPS $-0.71 vs $0.2091 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 33.4%, EPS $-0.88 vs $-0.6596 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 319.6%, EPS $-0.56 vs $0.255 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.0%, EPS $-0.77 vs $-0.8952 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 43.4%, EPS $1.50 vs $1.0458 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 14.7%, EPS $-0.79 vs $-0.6885 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.9%, EPS $1.60 vs $1.4428 estimate

Prediction market repriced: "Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?" moved -56pp in 24h to 4%

OSINT: AOC jumps to 2nd in 2028 presidential odds, 13% chance to win

OSINT: Canadians' tax bills outpace basic needs spending in 2025, report says

OSINT: CFTC Issues Advisory on Certification, Flags Filing Gaps in Prediction Markets

OSINT: Nikkei stalls as BOJ rate hike expectations loom