2026-08-14

Gold volume spike - 21.2× the 20-day average (124,670 vs 5,878 avg)

Silver volume spike - 150.8× the 20-day average (31,855 vs 211 avg)

Copper volume spike - 26.6× the 20-day average (37,260 vs 1,402 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 4.5× the 20-day average (92,880 vs 20,486 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 2357.4× the 20-day average (11,905 vs 5 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 670.3× the 20-day average (14,042 vs 20 avg)

OSINT: Lamborghini launches hybrid Revuelto SV, its most powerful production car

CFTC S&P 500 MINI speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

CFTC COPPER speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

CFTC BITCOIN speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

CFTC NATURAL GAS speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

OSINT: US Treasury to Impose Unprecedented Economic Isolation on Iran

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: US Credit Default Risk Raises Alarm Over Debt Ceiling

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: US Full-Time Jobs Drop 106k in July, Fourth Straight Decline

OSINT: Turkey cuts Russian oil purchases from Black Sea terminals

OSINT: Ukraine launches >500 drones in massive night raid on Russia

Oil +1.42%: significant gain on the session

Wheat rose 5.6% vs prior close ($652.75 → $689.00)

OSINT: Trump claims Iran missile production down 82%, manufacturing largely gone

Gold +1.57%: significant gain on the session

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 257,100 contracts, 65.43% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics, hitting Ural and Kamaz trucks

OSINT: Emirates adopts distinct flight numbers for opposite routes

OSINT: Russia Implements Fuel Rationing Amid Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

Oil +1.08%: significant gain on the session

Gold +1.77%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: US Financial Conditions Index Reaches Easiest Level Since 1997

OSINT: Ukrainian MiG-29 shoots down Russian drone, evades explosion

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 39,302 contracts, 13.90% of open interest (-3.8σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?" moved -50pp in 24h to 7%

OSINT: Ozon Android apps removed from Google Play, remain on App Store

OSINT: Phoebe Gates Charged in Alleged Cookie-Stuffing Scheme

OSINT: Jane Street Reports $15B July Loss Amid Situational Awareness Collapse

OSINT: Former Cambridge Professor Jason Arday Found Dead Amid Plagiarism Allegations

OSINT: Berkshire updates holdings: adds D.R. Horton, buys Alphabet, drops Constellation

OSINT: SanDisk 2x Leveraged ETF Gains $1.5B AUM in Weeks

OSINT: Druckenmiller's Duquesene Files 13F, Adds $120M GOOGL, $115M FOXA, $105M CDW

1 congress member filed 5 trades in CPAY: net selling (0B/5S)

E-mini S&P 500 speculative net position crossed to net long (first flip in 72 weeks)

OSINT: Apple proposes 15% fee on off-App Store purchases

OSINT: Two 1st Cavalry Soldiers Killed in Apache Helicopter Crash in Salado

OSINT: Payward posts 17% YoY revenue rise to $508M despite 13% volume dip

OSINT: Musk: Orbital Computing Needed to Scale AI by 2029

OSINT: Lamborghini launches hybrid Revuelto SV, its most powerful production car

TSLA RSI 70.2, overbought (crossed above 70)

NVDA RSI 75.7, overbought (crossed above 70)

QQQ RSI 70.2, overbought (crossed above 70)

1 congress member filed 9 trades in LTH: net buying (9B/0S)

OSINT: OpenAI CFO Denise Dresser departs amid executive shake-up

OSINT: Bitcoin Hashrate Falls 17% as Miners Shift to AI Data Centers

OSINT: Trump sued over $100k monthly fee for premium Truth Social access

OSINT: Emirates adopts distinct flight numbers for opposite routes

OSINT: Trump Admin Seeks SCOTUS OK to Resume White House Ballroom Build

1 congress member filed 5 trades in CPAY: net selling (0B/5S)

OSINT: AI disruption fears trigger sharp fall in call center stocks

OSINT: Telegram celebrates 13th anniversary, remains top-downloaded app

OSINT: SpaceX completes $60B acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor

OSINT: US Financial Conditions Index Reaches Easiest Level Since 1997

OSINT: Europe's Populace Opposes Uncontrolled Mass Migration, Says WarMonitor3

CaliberCos Inc. 8-K references SOL treasury activity · filed 2026-08-13

KULR Technology Group, Inc. 8-K references BTC treasury activity · filed 2026-08-13

POWERCOMPUTE, INC. 8-K references BTC treasury activity · filed 2026-08-14

NVDA RSI 75.8, overbought (crossed above 70)

TSLA RSI 72.2, overbought (crossed above 70)

QQQ RSI 71.5, overbought (crossed above 70)

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 20.7%, EPS $-0.16 vs $-0.1326 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 67.3%, EPS $-1.86 vs $-1.1118 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 164.9%, EPS $-0.25 vs $0.3851 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 17.6%, EPS $-0.15 vs $-0.1275 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 44.1%, EPS $-12.35 vs $-8.568 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 131.0%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.0606 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 43.8%, EPS $120.6858 vs $83.9448 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.8%, EPS $-0.06 vs $-0.068 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.4%, EPS $63.60 vs $54.1697 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 43.2%, EPS $-0.37 vs $-0.2584 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 113.6%, EPS $-0.02 vs $0.1466 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.8%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.0505 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 174.5%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.051 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 68.2%, EPS $0.2023 vs $0.6363 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 45.9%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.2035 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.5%, EPS $4.08 vs $3.5647 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 50.4%, EPS $-0.43 vs $-0.867 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.4%, EPS $0.29 vs $0.2652 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.7%, EPS $-0.36 vs $-0.3988 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 10.0%, EPS $0.98 vs $0.8908 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 117.0%, EPS $-0.01 vs $0.0587 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 34.6%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.0612 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.0%, EPS $-0.63 vs $-0.7497 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.6%, EPS $4.75 vs $5.0343 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 12.3%, EPS $-0.30 vs $-0.2672 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 14.8%, EPS $27.6078 vs $32.421 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 82.7%, EPS $-0.12 vs $-0.693 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.3%, EPS $2.35 vs $2.0741 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 20.0%, EPS $0.59 vs $0.4918 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.3%, EPS $0.89 vs $0.7854 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.5%, EPS $0.28 vs $0.2446 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.7%, EPS $0.30 vs $0.2839 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 33.3%, EPS $-0.68 vs $-0.51 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.8%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.3168 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 2061.0%, EPS $-2.04 vs $-0.0944 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 148.8%, EPS $0.1041 vs $-0.2131 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.6%, EPS $1.55 vs $1.3288 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 159.4%, EPS $0.10 vs $-0.1683 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 24.1%, EPS $0.20 vs $0.1612 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 6.6%, EPS $3.23 vs $3.0312 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 27.8%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.1938 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.3%, EPS $1.04 vs $0.969 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 19.1%, EPS $0.55 vs $0.6795 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 152.1%, EPS $-0.18 vs $-0.0714 estimate

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" moved +69pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?" moved -68pp in 24h to 13%

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": 9-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($14,292 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $17,182 in orders from 11 wallets absorbed at the 24% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": $46,913 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 86% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

Prediction market repriced: "Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-08-14?" moved +29pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-08-14?" moved +50pp in 24h to 84%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" moved -20pp in 24h to 19%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Atletico Madrid win on 2026-08-14?" moved +42pp in 24h to 86%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($50,179 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by Au" moved +22pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?" moved -46pp in 24h to 8%

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?": $16,416 in orders from 22 wallets absorbed at the 89% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shaanxi Union FC win on 2026-08-14?" moved +25pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-14?" moved +31pp in 24h to 79%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-08-14?" moved +22pp in 24h to 86%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-13?" moved -30pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Austin FC win on 2026-08-13?" moved -24pp in 24h to 4%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($17,409 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $15,449 in orders from 43 wallets absorbed at the 71% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

OSINT: Russia may lower fines for transporting children without documents

OSINT: Turkey cuts Russian oil purchases from Black Sea terminals

OSINT: Ukraine launches >500 drones in massive night raid on Russia

OSINT: Trump claims Iran missile production down 82%, manufacturing largely gone

OSINT: Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics, hitting Ural and Kamaz trucks

OSINT: Musk: Orbital Computing Needed to Scale AI by 2029

OSINT: Two 1st Cavalry Soldiers Killed in Apache Helicopter Crash in Salado

OSINT: Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics, hitting Ural and Kamaz trucks

Prediction market repriced: "Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-08-14?" moved -18pp in 24h to 11%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-08-14?" moved +16pp in 24h to 78%

tanker_freight_etf shipping +8.5%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-08-14?" moved +18pp in 24h to 64%

OSINT: US Sets 25% Tariffs on Brazil, Lula Election Odds Rise on Polymarket

OSINT: Russia Implements Fuel Rationing Amid Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($15,946 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predi

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?" moved -20pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?" moved +17pp in 24h to 20%

OSINT: SpaceX completes $60B acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor

OSINT: Ukrainian MiG-29 shoots down Russian drone, evades explosion

OSINT: Europe's Populace Opposes Uncontrolled Mass Migration, Says WarMonitor3

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 10%

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,865 contracts, 18.24% of open interest (+2.6σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?" moved +31pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on August 14?" moved -39pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on August 14?" moved -26pp in 24h to 38%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 14?" moved -24pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?" moved -30pp in 24h to 20%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 14?" moved -24pp in 24h to 14%

BCH funding -0.0697% · 0th percentile of its 208d Binance history

OSINT: Paul Tudor Jones' firm holds $22.9M in BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF

OSINT: Phoebe Gates Charged in Alleged Cookie-Stuffing Scheme

OSINT: Jane Street Reports $15B July Loss Amid Situational Awareness Collapse

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?" moved -16pp in 24h to 34%

OSINT: Claynosaurz Unveils $HEEBOO Token, Expanding NFT Utility

OSINT: Musk: Orbital Computing Needed to Scale AI by 2029

OSINT: Prime Brokers Commit to Collateral on Canton Network, Clearing Houses Follow

OSINT: US Dollar Long Positions Hit $48B, Most Crowded Since 2015

OSINT: Payward posts 17% YoY revenue rise to $508M despite 13% volume dip

BCH funding -0.0535% · 1th percentile of its 208d Binance history

INJ funding -0.0448% · 5th percentile of its 208d Binance history

OSINT: UAE sovereign funds Mubadala, ADIC hold $763.7M in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF

OSINT: OpenAI CFO Denise Dresser departs amid executive shake-up

OSINT: US Sets 25% Tariffs on Brazil, Lula Election Odds Rise on Polymarket

OSINT: Trump sued over $100k monthly fee for premium Truth Social access

OSINT: Bitcoin Hashrate Falls 17% as Miners Shift to AI Data Centers

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?" moved +15pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?" moved -16pp in 24h to 22%

OSINT: Telegram celebrates 13th anniversary, remains top-downloaded app

OSINT: Solana's SIMD-0553 to raise fees on heavy txs, increase SOL burns

OSINT: Ethena Treasury Holds 3B ENA, ~20% of Supply Valued $218M

OSINT: US Financial Conditions Index Reaches Easiest Level Since 1997

APT funding -0.0438% · 5th percentile of its 208d Binance history

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?" moved -16pp in 24h to 57%

OSINT: Russia may lower fines for transporting children without documents

OSINT: Turkey cuts Russian oil purchases from Black Sea terminals

OSINT: Jane Street Reports $15B July Loss Amid Situational Awareness Collapse

OSINT: Ukraine launches >500 drones in massive night raid on Russia

OSINT: Phoebe Gates Charged in Alleged Cookie-Stuffing Scheme

OSINT: Trump claims Iran missile production down 82%, manufacturing largely gone

OSINT: US Dollar Long Positions Hit $48B, Most Crowded Since 2015

OSINT: Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics, hitting Ural and Kamaz trucks

DXY -0.30%, dollar weakness signal

OSINT: US Sets 25% Tariffs on Brazil, Lula Election Odds Rise on Polymarket

OSINT: Russia Implements Fuel Rationing Amid Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

OSINT: Emirates adopts distinct flight numbers for opposite routes

OSINT: Trump Admin Seeks SCOTUS OK to Resume White House Ballroom Build

OSINT: US Financial Conditions Index Reaches Easiest Level Since 1997

OSINT: Europe's Populace Opposes Uncontrolled Mass Migration, Says WarMonitor3

OSINT: Ukrainian MiG-29 shoots down Russian drone, evades explosion