2026-08-14

Gold volume spike - 21.2× the 20-day average (124,670 vs 5,878 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 4.5× the 20-day average (92,880 vs 20,486 avg)

Copper volume spike - 26.6× the 20-day average (37,260 vs 1,402 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 2357.4× the 20-day average (11,905 vs 5 avg)

Silver volume spike - 150.8× the 20-day average (31,855 vs 211 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 670.3× the 20-day average (14,042 vs 20 avg)

OSINT: Lamborghini launches hybrid Revuelto SV, its most powerful production car

CFTC NATURAL GAS speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

CFTC COPPER speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

CFTC BITCOIN speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

CFTC S&P 500 MINI speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

OSINT: US Treasury to Impose Unprecedented Economic Isolation on Iran

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: US Credit Default Risk Raises Alarm Over Debt Ceiling

OSINT: US Full-Time Jobs Drop 106k in July, Fourth Straight Decline

OSINT: Ukraine launches >500 drones in massive night raid on Russia

OSINT: Turkey cuts Russian oil purchases from Black Sea terminals

Oil +1.42%: significant gain on the session

Wheat rose 5.6% vs prior close ($652.75 → $689.00)

OSINT: Trump claims Iran missile production down 82%, manufacturing largely gone

Gold +1.57%: significant gain on the session

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 257,100 contracts, 65.43% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics, hitting Ural and Kamaz trucks

OSINT: Emirates adopts distinct flight numbers for opposite routes

OSINT: Russia Implements Fuel Rationing Amid Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

Oil +1.08%: significant gain on the session

Gold +1.77%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: US Financial Conditions Index Reaches Easiest Level Since 1997

OSINT: Ukrainian MiG-29 shoots down Russian drone, evades explosion

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 39,302 contracts, 13.90% of open interest (-3.8σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?" moved -50pp in 24h to 7%

OSINT: Phoebe Gates Charged in Alleged Cookie-Stuffing Scheme

OSINT: Ozon Android apps removed from Google Play, remain on App Store

OSINT: Jane Street Reports $15B July Loss Amid Situational Awareness Collapse

OSINT: Druckenmiller's Duquesene Files 13F, Adds $120M GOOGL, $115M FOXA, $105M CDW

OSINT: Berkshire updates holdings: adds D.R. Horton, buys Alphabet, drops Constellation

OSINT: Former Cambridge Professor Jason Arday Found Dead Amid Plagiarism Allegations

OSINT: SanDisk 2x Leveraged ETF Gains $1.5B AUM in Weeks

1 congress member filed 5 trades in CPAY: net selling (0B/5S)

E-mini S&P 500 speculative net position crossed to net long (first flip in 72 weeks)

OSINT: Two 1st Cavalry Soldiers Killed in Apache Helicopter Crash in Salado

OSINT: Apple proposes 15% fee on off-App Store purchases

OSINT: Payward posts 17% YoY revenue rise to $508M despite 13% volume dip

OSINT: Lamborghini launches hybrid Revuelto SV, its most powerful production car

OSINT: Musk: Orbital Computing Needed to Scale AI by 2029

QQQ RSI 70.2, overbought (crossed above 70)

NVDA RSI 75.7, overbought (crossed above 70)

TSLA RSI 70.2, overbought (crossed above 70)

1 congress member filed 9 trades in LTH: net buying (9B/0S)

OSINT: Trump sued over $100k monthly fee for premium Truth Social access

OSINT: Emirates adopts distinct flight numbers for opposite routes

OSINT: Bitcoin Hashrate Falls 17% as Miners Shift to AI Data Centers

OSINT: OpenAI CFO Denise Dresser departs amid executive shake-up

OSINT: Trump Admin Seeks SCOTUS OK to Resume White House Ballroom Build

OSINT: US Financial Conditions Index Reaches Easiest Level Since 1997

OSINT: AI disruption fears trigger sharp fall in call center stocks

OSINT: SpaceX completes $60B acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor

OSINT: Europe's Populace Opposes Uncontrolled Mass Migration, Says WarMonitor3

OSINT: Telegram celebrates 13th anniversary, remains top-downloaded app

KULR Technology Group, Inc. 8-K references BTC treasury activity · filed 2026-08-13

CaliberCos Inc. 8-K references SOL treasury activity · filed 2026-08-13

POWERCOMPUTE, INC. 8-K references BTC treasury activity · filed 2026-08-14

QQQ RSI 71.5, overbought (crossed above 70)

NVDA RSI 75.8, overbought (crossed above 70)

TSLA RSI 72.2, overbought (crossed above 70)

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 20.7%, EPS $-0.16 vs $-0.1326 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 67.3%, EPS $-1.86 vs $-1.1118 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 164.9%, EPS $-0.25 vs $0.3851 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 17.6%, EPS $-0.15 vs $-0.1275 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 44.1%, EPS $-12.35 vs $-8.568 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 131.0%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.0606 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 43.8%, EPS $120.6858 vs $83.9448 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.8%, EPS $-0.06 vs $-0.068 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.4%, EPS $63.60 vs $54.1697 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 43.2%, EPS $-0.37 vs $-0.2584 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 113.6%, EPS $-0.02 vs $0.1466 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.8%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.0505 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 174.5%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.051 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 68.2%, EPS $0.2023 vs $0.6363 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 45.9%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.2035 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.5%, EPS $4.08 vs $3.5647 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 50.4%, EPS $-0.43 vs $-0.867 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.4%, EPS $0.29 vs $0.2652 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.7%, EPS $-0.36 vs $-0.3988 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 10.0%, EPS $0.98 vs $0.8908 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 117.0%, EPS $-0.01 vs $0.0587 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 34.6%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.0612 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.0%, EPS $-0.63 vs $-0.7497 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.6%, EPS $4.75 vs $5.0343 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 12.3%, EPS $-0.30 vs $-0.2672 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 14.8%, EPS $27.6078 vs $32.421 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 82.7%, EPS $-0.12 vs $-0.693 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.3%, EPS $2.35 vs $2.0741 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 20.0%, EPS $0.59 vs $0.4918 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.3%, EPS $0.89 vs $0.7854 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.5%, EPS $0.28 vs $0.2446 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.7%, EPS $0.30 vs $0.2839 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 33.3%, EPS $-0.68 vs $-0.51 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.8%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.3168 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 2061.0%, EPS $-2.04 vs $-0.0944 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 148.8%, EPS $0.1041 vs $-0.2131 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.6%, EPS $1.55 vs $1.3288 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 159.4%, EPS $0.10 vs $-0.1683 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 24.1%, EPS $0.20 vs $0.1612 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 6.6%, EPS $3.23 vs $3.0312 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 27.8%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.1938 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.3%, EPS $1.04 vs $0.969 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 19.1%, EPS $0.55 vs $0.6795 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 152.1%, EPS $-0.18 vs $-0.0714 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 102.5%, EPS $-0.01 vs $0.4038 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 14.6%, EPS $51.34 vs $44.8181 estimate

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" moved +69pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?" moved -68pp in 24h to 13%

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": 9-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($14,292 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $17,182 in orders from 11 wallets absorbed at the 24% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": $46,913 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 86% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

Prediction market repriced: "Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-08-14?" moved +29pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Atletico Madrid win on 2026-08-14?" moved +42pp in 24h to 86%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" moved -20pp in 24h to 19%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-08-14?" moved +50pp in 24h to 84%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($50,179 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by Au" moved +22pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?" moved -46pp in 24h to 8%

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?": $16,416 in orders from 22 wallets absorbed at the 89% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shaanxi Union FC win on 2026-08-14?" moved +25pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-14?" moved +31pp in 24h to 79%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-08-14?" moved +22pp in 24h to 86%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-13?" moved -30pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Austin FC win on 2026-08-13?" moved -24pp in 24h to 4%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($17,409 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $15,449 in orders from 43 wallets absorbed at the 71% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

OSINT: Russia may lower fines for transporting children without documents

OSINT: Ukraine launches >500 drones in massive night raid on Russia

OSINT: Turkey cuts Russian oil purchases from Black Sea terminals

OSINT: Trump claims Iran missile production down 82%, manufacturing largely gone

OSINT: Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics, hitting Ural and Kamaz trucks

OSINT: Two 1st Cavalry Soldiers Killed in Apache Helicopter Crash in Salado

OSINT: Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics, hitting Ural and Kamaz trucks

OSINT: Musk: Orbital Computing Needed to Scale AI by 2029

Prediction market repriced: "Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-08-14?" moved +16pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-08-14?" moved -18pp in 24h to 11%

tanker_freight_etf shipping +8.5%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-08-14?" moved +18pp in 24h to 64%

OSINT: Russia Implements Fuel Rationing Amid Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

OSINT: US Sets 25% Tariffs on Brazil, Lula Election Odds Rise on Polymarket

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($15,946 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predi

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?" moved -20pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?" moved +17pp in 24h to 20%

OSINT: Ukrainian MiG-29 shoots down Russian drone, evades explosion

OSINT: SpaceX completes $60B acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor

OSINT: Europe's Populace Opposes Uncontrolled Mass Migration, Says WarMonitor3

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 10%

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,865 contracts, 18.24% of open interest (+2.6σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?" moved +31pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on August 14?" moved -39pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on August 14?" moved -26pp in 24h to 38%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 14?" moved -24pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?" moved -30pp in 24h to 20%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 14?" moved -24pp in 24h to 14%

BCH funding -0.0697% · 0th percentile of its 208d Binance history

OSINT: Jane Street Reports $15B July Loss Amid Situational Awareness Collapse

OSINT: Phoebe Gates Charged in Alleged Cookie-Stuffing Scheme

OSINT: Paul Tudor Jones' firm holds $22.9M in BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?" moved -16pp in 24h to 34%

OSINT: Claynosaurz Unveils $HEEBOO Token, Expanding NFT Utility

OSINT: Musk: Orbital Computing Needed to Scale AI by 2029

OSINT: US Dollar Long Positions Hit $48B, Most Crowded Since 2015

OSINT: Prime Brokers Commit to Collateral on Canton Network, Clearing Houses Follow

OSINT: Payward posts 17% YoY revenue rise to $508M despite 13% volume dip

INJ funding -0.0448% · 5th percentile of its 208d Binance history

BCH funding -0.0535% · 1th percentile of its 208d Binance history

OSINT: OpenAI CFO Denise Dresser departs amid executive shake-up

OSINT: Bitcoin Hashrate Falls 17% as Miners Shift to AI Data Centers

OSINT: Trump sued over $100k monthly fee for premium Truth Social access

OSINT: UAE sovereign funds Mubadala, ADIC hold $763.7M in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF

OSINT: US Sets 25% Tariffs on Brazil, Lula Election Odds Rise on Polymarket

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?" moved -16pp in 24h to 22%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?" moved +15pp in 24h to 50%

OSINT: Ethena Treasury Holds 3B ENA, ~20% of Supply Valued $218M

OSINT: US Financial Conditions Index Reaches Easiest Level Since 1997

OSINT: Telegram celebrates 13th anniversary, remains top-downloaded app

OSINT: Solana's SIMD-0553 to raise fees on heavy txs, increase SOL burns

APT funding -0.0438% · 5th percentile of its 208d Binance history

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?" moved -16pp in 24h to 57%

OSINT: Jane Street Reports $15B July Loss Amid Situational Awareness Collapse

OSINT: Turkey cuts Russian oil purchases from Black Sea terminals

OSINT: Phoebe Gates Charged in Alleged Cookie-Stuffing Scheme

OSINT: Ukraine launches >500 drones in massive night raid on Russia

OSINT: Russia may lower fines for transporting children without documents

OSINT: Trump claims Iran missile production down 82%, manufacturing largely gone

OSINT: US Dollar Long Positions Hit $48B, Most Crowded Since 2015

OSINT: Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics, hitting Ural and Kamaz trucks

DXY -0.30%, dollar weakness signal

OSINT: US Sets 25% Tariffs on Brazil, Lula Election Odds Rise on Polymarket

OSINT: Russia Implements Fuel Rationing Amid Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

OSINT: Emirates adopts distinct flight numbers for opposite routes

OSINT: Trump Admin Seeks SCOTUS OK to Resume White House Ballroom Build

OSINT: US Financial Conditions Index Reaches Easiest Level Since 1997

OSINT: Ukrainian MiG-29 shoots down Russian drone, evades explosion

OSINT: Europe's Populace Opposes Uncontrolled Mass Migration, Says WarMonitor3