2026-08-18

Prediction market repriced: "Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?" moved -74pp in 24h to 15%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?" moved +72pp in 24h to 98%

Prediction market repriced: "Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?" moved +30pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Exact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 1 - 2 Olympique Lyonnais?" moved +21pp in 24h to 28%

Polymarket order flow on "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?": $30,146 in orders from 12 wallets absorbed at the 87% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction

Prediction market repriced: "Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?" moved +59pp in 24h to 62%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-08-18?" moved -30pp in 24h to 12%

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?": 6-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($10,491 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $18,902 in orders from 12 wallets absorbed at the 29% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 6-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($25,791 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $19,354 in orders from 54 wallets absorbed at the 72% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will Club Puebla win on 2026-08-17?" moved +38pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-08-17?" moved -30pp in 24h to 34%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?" moved +23pp in 24h to 62%

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": $41,858 in orders from 16 wallets absorbed at the 89% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict

Prediction market repriced: "Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?" moved +15pp in 24h to 98%

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarms Surge Over Russia in Nightly Raids

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 40%

OSINT: Mali's 2020 Coup Aftermath Still Unsettled Six Years On

OSINT: Mali's 2020 Coup Aftermath Still Unsettled Six Years On

OSINT: Senator Sanders Calls for Ban on AI Mass Surveillance and Flock Platform

OSINT: Iran denies UAE claim of missile launch from Iranian territory

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Targets Moscow, Black Sea, Crimea

OSINT: Iran denies UAE claim of missile launch from Iranian territory

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Targets Moscow, Black Sea, Crimea

OSINT: Russian strike hits DTEK thermal power plant in Ukraine

OSINT: Ukraine PM talks with German firms on restoring Chernobyl shelter

OSINT: Nataliia Boiko Named Head of Ukraine's GTS Operator

OSINT: Netanyahu slams ICC as 'kangaroo court' in sharp criticism

OSINT: Qatar Refutes Claims It Detained Iranian Pilots

OSINT: Novak mandates tighter fuel supply controls across regions

OSINT: US Sanctions ICC President Tomoko Akane, Raising Japan-US Tensions

OSINT: Cargo Ship Declared Total Loss After Bab al-Mandab Strait Attack

OSINT: Trump says US will not negotiate with Iran until Tehran signs deal

OSINT: NATO Unveils Rapid Response Plan to Potential Russian Attack on Baltic State

OSINT: US Base Withdrawals Raise Doubts Over War Victory Perception

OSINT: All Mines Cleared from Strait of Hormuz, Says Trump

OSINT: All Mines Cleared from Strait of Hormuz, Says Trump

OSINT: Elon Musk predicts space economy to exceed $1.8T by 2035

OSINT: US-Iran MOU expires, conflict persists, uncertainty looms

OSINT: Mass stabbing in Shepherd's Bush, London kills one

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-18?" moved -19pp in 24h to 60%

OSINT: Iran launches ballistic missiles at UAE, raising regional tensions

OSINT: Iran launches ballistic missiles at UAE, raising regional tensions

OSINT: Google to relocate Pixel supply chain from China to Vietnam, India by 2027

OSINT: Final US F-22 Raptors Launch from RAF Fairford, Tankers Depart Mildenhall

OSINT: Russia ships drone parts, ammo to Iran via Caspian Sea amid US ceasefire

OSINT: USAF Coronet East Exercise Deploys KC-46 Tankers and F-22 Raptors

OSINT: Russia ships drone parts, ammo to Iran via Caspian Sea amid US ceasefire

OSINT: Ukrainian sentenced for spying for Russia raises security concerns

OSINT: South Korea Warns of 'Worst-Case' After Trump Halts Joint Drills

Copper volume spike - 39.8× the 20-day average (52,516 vs 1,318 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 729.5× the 20-day average (15,976 vs 21 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 8.7× the 20-day average (162,611 vs 18,702 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 2704.4× the 20-day average (12,981 vs 4 avg)

Silver volume spike - 509.0× the 20-day average (48,354 vs 95 avg)

Gold volume spike - 21.5× the 20-day average (128,448 vs 5,969 avg)

OSINT: South Korea Warns of 'Worst-Case' After Trump Halts Joint Drills

Prediction market repriced: "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?" moved -28pp in 24h to 23%

OSINT: Azerbaijan Inflation Surge Raises Economic Concerns

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: Rising Oman-Iran Tensions Raise Geopolitical Risks in Gulf

OSINT: Ukraine poised for nighttime drone strikes against Russia

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarms Surge Over Russia in Nightly Raids

WTI futures curve moved from backwardation to contango (front vs second month spread +0.4%)

Silver fell 4.1% vs prior close ($66.12 → $63.42)

OSINT: Iran denies UAE claim of missile launch from Iranian territory

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Targets Moscow, Black Sea, Crimea

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 257,100 contracts, 65.43% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Russian strike hits DTEK thermal power plant in Ukraine

OSINT: Ukraine PM talks with German firms on restoring Chernobyl shelter

OSINT: CFTC Seeks Comments on Exemptions to Ease CPO/CTA Registration

OSINT: Nataliia Boiko Named Head of Ukraine's GTS Operator

OSINT: Novak mandates tighter fuel supply controls across regions

OSINT: Qatar Refutes Claims It Detained Iranian Pilots

OSINT: Cargo Ship Declared Total Loss After Bab al-Mandab Strait Attack

OSINT: Trump says US will not negotiate with Iran until Tehran signs deal

OSINT: NATO Unveils Rapid Response Plan to Potential Russian Attack on Baltic State

OSINT: US Base Withdrawals Raise Doubts Over War Victory Perception

OSINT: All Mines Cleared from Strait of Hormuz, Says Trump

OSINT: US-Iran MOU expires, conflict persists, uncertainty looms

OSINT: Iran launches ballistic missiles at UAE, raising regional tensions

OSINT: Final US F-22 Raptors Launch from RAF Fairford, Tankers Depart Mildenhall

OSINT: Russia ships drone parts, ammo to Iran via Caspian Sea amid US ceasefire

OSINT: Ukrainian sentenced for spying for Russia raises security concerns

OSINT: South Korea Warns of 'Worst-Case' After Trump Halts Joint Drills

OSINT: NATO conducts major show of force near Kaliningrad, raising tensions

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 39,302 contracts, 13.90% of open interest (-3.8σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

4 insiders at DYN sold $65.4M this week

6 insiders at PBF sold $69.8M this week

4 insiders at VG sold $25.1M this week

3 insiders at WBD sold $29.7M this week

2 insiders at SEPN sold $39.1M this week

3 insiders at PBF sold $24.9M this week

OSINT: OpenAI Halts AI Training for Two Weeks After Hugging Face Breach

MARZETTI CO search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Coinbase CEO predicts x402 scaling essential as AI agents surge

TSLA RSI 75.5, overbought (crossed above 70)

OSINT: Asana claims OpenAI Codex cuts 5-year project to 2 weeks for $12K

OSINT: Senator Sanders Calls for Ban on AI Mass Surveillance and Flock Platform

OSINT: SEC Chair Calls U.S. ‘Crypto Capital’ in Historic Regulatory Proposal

OSINT: Ukraine PM talks with German firms on restoring Chernobyl shelter

OSINT: Inflation Gaps and AI Funding Spike Push Sovereign Yields to Decade Highs

TransUnion search volume spiked +46 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: PA Governor to Sign Order Limiting Data Center Growth

OSINT: Hedge Funds Log Second-Largest Weekly US Equity Purchases in 12 Months

OSINT: US Sanctions ICC President Tomoko Akane, Raising Japan-US Tensions

OSINT: JurassicFi Tokens Museum-Grade Triceratops Skull on Solana

OSINT: AI Accelerates Blockchain Attacks, Raises Security Concerns

OSINT: Tech Titans and Celebs to Speak at 2026 All-In Summit

OSINT: 30-Year US Treasury Yield Surpasses 5.33%, 19-Year High

OSINT: On-chain Tokenized Equity Volume Hits $9B, Up 207% QoQ

OSINT: BTCC Joins TOKEN2049 Singapore 2026 as Platinum Sponsor

OSINT: Analyst Tom Lee says AI surge boosts crypto relevance, picks Ethereum

OSINT: AI Growth Platform 'Mate' Launches, Targeting 700 Major Brands

Unum Group search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Elon Musk predicts space economy to exceed $1.8T by 2035

OSINT: OpenAI to limit teen access with new ChatGPT, adding mental-health safeguards

OSINT: US CLARITY Act Passes, Shifts Focus to Artificial Intelligence

OSINT: Google to relocate Pixel supply chain from China to Vietnam, India by 2027

OSINT: Metaplanet commits 2,100 BTC to Super League for U.S. Bitcoin Treasury Platform

OSINT: Senator Lummis Announces Senate Vote on CLARITY Act for Sept. 15

OSINT: South Korea Warns of 'Worst-Case' After Trump Halts Joint Drills

OSINT: Chinese firm Zhibao Technology adds 2,380 BTC to treasury reserve

OSINT: Nasdaq adds 7-hour night shift to tap crypto’s 24/7 market

OSINT: White House to Host Major Crypto Policy Meeting with Industry Leaders

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,865 contracts, 18.24% of open interest (+2.6σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 19?" moved +22pp in 24h to 84%

Polymarket order flow on "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?": $11,614 in orders from 13 wallets absorbed at the 44% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 18?" moved +34pp in 24h to 62%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 18?": 6-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($16,184 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Polymarket order flow on "Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?": $16,557 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 82% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

OSINT: OpenAI Halts AI Training for Two Weeks After Hugging Face Breach

OSINT: Coinbase CEO predicts x402 scaling essential as AI agents surge

OSINT: Senator Sanders Calls for Ban on AI Mass Surveillance and Flock Platform

OSINT: SEC Chair Calls U.S. ‘Crypto Capital’ in Historic Regulatory Proposal

OSINT: Asana claims OpenAI Codex cuts 5-year project to 2 weeks for $12K

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Targets Moscow, Black Sea, Crimea

OSINT: NEW: 📉 #Bitcoin is in "the tightest volatility band it's been in for f

OSINT: Large Holders Acquire 43,000 BTC ($2.7B) in 60 Days

OSINT: CFTC Seeks Comments on Exemptions to Ease CPO/CTA Registration

OSINT: SEC Commissioners Approve Crypto Asset Regulation Proposal via Seriatim Vote

OSINT: PA Governor to Sign Order Limiting Data Center Growth

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.75x): on-chain trade volume 0.75x liquidity

OSINT: BTC Surges to $65,000 After $56M Short Squeeze Hits Bears

OSINT: SEC Proposes New 'Regulation Crypto Assets' Tailored Securities Regime

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?" moved -15pp in 24h to 36%

OSINT: Solana reaches 1.2 B weekly transactions, excluding votes

OSINT: Conviction Buyers Ramp Up Bitcoin Accumulation Near $60K, Glassnode Shows

OSINT: Tech Titans and Celebs to Speak at 2026 All-In Summit

OSINT: AI Accelerates Blockchain Attacks, Raises Security Concerns

OSINT: JurassicFi Tokens Museum-Grade Triceratops Skull on Solana

OSINT: SEC Proposes New Rules for Crypto Investment Contracts

OSINT: 30-Year US Treasury Yield Surpasses 5.33%, 19-Year High

OSINT: CFTC Holds First Innovation Advisory Committee, Signals Policy Shift

OSINT: Analyst Tom Lee says AI surge boosts crypto relevance, picks Ethereum

OSINT: On-chain Tokenized Equity Volume Hits $9B, Up 207% QoQ

OSINT: BTCC Joins TOKEN2049 Singapore 2026 as Platinum Sponsor

OSINT: Clarity, 401(k)s and Long-Term Holders Boost Bitcoin’s Five Tailwinds

OSINT: Scaramucci predicts Bitcoin to surge past $100k as halving tightens supply

OSINT: US CLARITY Act Passes, Shifts Focus to Artificial Intelligence

OSINT: PUMP Token Buyback Returns to Profit After 9-Month Downturn

OSINT: Bitcoin whales snap up $2.9B in BTC over 60 days

OSINT: Metaplanet commits 2,100 BTC to Super League for U.S. Bitcoin Treasury Platform

OSINT: Senator Lummis Announces Senate Vote on CLARITY Act for Sept. 15

OSINT: White House to Host Major Crypto Policy Meeting with Industry Leaders

OSINT: Chinese firm Zhibao Technology adds 2,380 BTC to treasury reserve

OSINT: Nasdaq adds 7-hour night shift to tap crypto’s 24/7 market

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarms Surge Over Russia in Nightly Raids

OSINT: Mali's 2020 Coup Aftermath Still Unsettled Six Years On

OSINT: SEC Chair Calls U.S. ‘Crypto Capital’ in Historic Regulatory Proposal

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Targets Moscow, Black Sea, Crimea

OSINT: Iran denies UAE claim of missile launch from Iranian territory

OSINT: Nataliia Boiko Named Head of Ukraine's GTS Operator

OSINT: Russian strike hits DTEK thermal power plant in Ukraine

OSINT: Inflation Gaps and AI Funding Spike Push Sovereign Yields to Decade Highs

OSINT: CFTC Seeks Comments on Exemptions to Ease CPO/CTA Registration

OSINT: Netanyahu slams ICC as 'kangaroo court' in sharp criticism

OSINT: US National Debt Nears $40 Trillion

OSINT: Ruble rebounds, gains against Chinese yuan

OSINT: Novak mandates tighter fuel supply controls across regions

OSINT: Qatar Refutes Claims It Detained Iranian Pilots

OSINT: US Sanctions ICC President Tomoko Akane, Raising Japan-US Tensions

OSINT: Trump says US will not negotiate with Iran until Tehran signs deal

OSINT: 30-Year US Treasury Yield Surpasses 5.33%, 19-Year High

OSINT: NATO Unveils Rapid Response Plan to Potential Russian Attack on Baltic State

OSINT: US Base Withdrawals Raise Doubts Over War Victory Perception

OSINT: All Mines Cleared from Strait of Hormuz, Says Trump

OSINT: US-Iran MOU expires, conflict persists, uncertainty looms

OSINT: Mass stabbing in Shepherd's Bush, London kills one

OSINT: Iran launches ballistic missiles at UAE, raising regional tensions

OSINT: Final US F-22 Raptors Launch from RAF Fairford, Tankers Depart Mildenhall

OSINT: Russia ships drone parts, ammo to Iran via Caspian Sea amid US ceasefire

OSINT: Ukrainian sentenced for spying for Russia raises security concerns

OSINT: Galatasaray to acquire Batrakov for €25m

OSINT: Man fined €9,100 for assaulting waitress at Munich Oktoberfest

OSINT: South Korea Warns of 'Worst-Case' After Trump Halts Joint Drills

OSINT: Chinese firm Zhibao Technology adds 2,380 BTC to treasury reserve

OSINT: Cargill FY2026 profit falls 17% amid restructuring costs