2026-08-19

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 21?" moved +79pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 20?" moved +96pp in 24h to 96%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 21?" moved +84pp in 24h to 84%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 20?" moved +92pp in 24h to 93%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 20?" moved +87pp in 24h to 91%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 20?" moved +64pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on August 19?" moved +85pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 19?" moved +68pp in 24h to 71%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 19?" moved -70pp in 24h to 7%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 19?" moved +84pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23?" moved +43pp in 24h to 43%

ETH liquidations totaled $24.0M in the past hour, 34% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

SOL liquidations totaled $5.3M in the past hour, 4% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,865 contracts, 18.24% of open interest (+2.6σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

BTC liquidations totaled $6.6M in the past hour, 1% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August?" moved +59pp in 24h to 60%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 20?" moved +44pp in 24h to 45%

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?" moved +47pp in 24h to 97%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?" moved -36pp in 24h to 40%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August?" moved -32pp in 24h to 3%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in August?" moved +35pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?" moved +31pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?" moved +39pp in 24h to 41%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?" moved +34pp in 24h to 68%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET" moved -38pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23?" moved +25pp in 24h to 27%

Polymarket order flow on "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?": $12,499 in orders from 3 wallets absorbed at the 63% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in August?" moved +24pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?" moved +49pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?" moved +30pp in 24h to 34%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?" moved +28pp in 24h to 38%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?" moved -26pp in 24h to 22%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20?" moved +59pp in 24h to 73%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in August?" moved +36pp in 24h to 55%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?" moved +20pp in 24h to 32%

ETH liquidations totaled $12.6M in the past hour, 0% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

Polymarket order flow on "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 19?": $12,116 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 80% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?" moved +34pp in 24h to 70%

BTC liquidations totaled $5.5M in the past hour, 4% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?" moved +29pp in 24h to 44%

OSINT: Russia shifts pension payouts in Israel to alternative currencies

OSINT: Fed July Minutes: Inflation Risks Remain Skewed to the Upside, Some Officials Ba

OSINT: JitoSOL Stake Pool Casts 10M SOL Votes YES on All Active Solana Proposals

OSINT: Stani Kulechov Announces $230B Fixed-Income Fund to Join Aave Horizon

ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.78x): on-chain trade volume 0.78x liquidity

OSINT: hyperliquid:native and ethereum:native are leading the major crypto assets durin

OSINT: Grayscale: New SEC Crypto Rules May Spur Token Fundraising, Boost Networks

OSINT: US National Debt Interest Expense Hits Record $1.4T, BofA Says

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.74x): on-chain trade volume 0.74x liquidity

OSINT: Bitcoin surges past $70k, triggers $2.7B short liquidations

OSINT: Jupiter Exchange Market Share Drops Below 50% on Solana DEX Aggregator Volume

OSINT: Fed minutes warn of more rate hikes if inflation stalls

OSINT: Robinhood CEO: tokenization expands US asset access globally, US investors lag

OSINT: Ethereum tops $2,000, boosting ZEC, SOL, XRP

OSINT: Crypto short liquidations hit record $2.47B in 24h

OSINT: Bitcoin surges, CZ's 'yearly horizon' quip proves timely

OSINT: OpenGacha Pull-Shop Protocol Launches on Solana, Enabling Custom NFT Gacha Pools

BTC RSI 75.3, overbought (crossed above 70)

OSINT: Singapore announces tax cuts for asset managers, boosting sector profitability

OSINT: Fed Minutes Signal Potential Rate Hike if Inflation Persists

OSINT: Core Scientific Revives From Bankruptcy to AI Data Center Boom

ETH RSI 87.0, overbought (crossed above 70)

SOL RSI 78.0, overbought (crossed above 70)

OSINT: Tom Lee’s ETH Holdings Surge by $1B, According to Arkham

OSINT: Hyperliquid $HYPE jumps 15% after Trump cites CFTC US push

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?" moved -17pp in 24h to 58%

OSINT: Tom Lee endorses Tenev's tokenization supercycle, citing AI boost

Gold volume spike - 40.2× the 20-day average (241,031 vs 6,002 avg)

Copper volume spike - 38.5× the 20-day average (49,722 vs 1,292 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 4265.8× the 20-day average (20,476 vs 4 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 9.0× the 20-day average (164,248 vs 18,289 avg)

Silver volume spike - 788.7× the 20-day average (70,352 vs 89 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 1226.7× the 20-day average (28,398 vs 23 avg)

Platinum rose 6.0% vs prior close ($1,726.40 → $1,830.00)

Gold +4.63%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: US Interest Payments Surge to $5B Daily by 2028, Raising Fiscal Concerns

Prediction market repriced: "US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?" moved +34pp in 24h to 88%

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

Gold +3.31%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Jeff Currie warns diesel price surge eclipses $91 Brent

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": $13,752 in orders from 14 wallets absorbed at the 65% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

OSINT: Iran Mulls Strikes on US Military Sites in Europe if Trump Escalates Conflict

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarms Surge Over Russia in Nightly Raids

OSINT: Europe Pours €19 bn into Energy Crisis as Middle East Conflict Rages

OSINT: Russia launches massive missile strike on Kyiv, hitting multiple targets

Silver rose 5.0% vs prior close ($63.94 → $67.13)

Wheat rose 4.8% vs prior close ($664.50 → $696.50)

30Y Treasury Bond volume spike - 2.2× the 20-day average (1,026,870 vs 467,340 avg)

Gold rose 4.9% vs prior close ($4,366.00 → $4,580.70)

Cotton rose 4.3% vs prior close ($84.12 → $87.70)

OSINT: US President Signals Oil Price Collapse if Iran Tensions Ease

OSINT: Ukrainian drone hits Russian ammo convoy, causing explosions, Grad rocket fire

OSINT: Series of Strong Earthquakes Strikes Indonesia, Raising Regional Risk

OSINT: Cass Freight Index drops 4.8% YoY in July, hitting pandemic lows

OSINT: Repeated Unexplained NATO Activity Raises Uncertainty

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 257,100 contracts, 65.43% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Ukraine detains foreigners for arson at Chernivtsi energy site on Russian orders

Oil -1.15%: significant decline on the session

Prediction market repriced: "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?" moved +19pp in 24h to 45%

OSINT: Russia's Central Bank sees demand surge, supply gaps boost August prices

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 39,302 contracts, 13.90% of open interest (-3.8σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

OSINT: US National Debt Tops $40 Trillion

2 insiders at AUR sold $491.7M this week

4 insiders at DYN sold $65.4M this week

2 insiders at JNJ sold $36.2M this week

5 insiders at PBF sold $44.9M this week

5 insiders at VG sold $31.7M this week

6 insiders at EAT sold $32.1M this week

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 19?" moved +42pp in 24h to 96%

2 insiders at WBD sold $29.1M this week

6 insiders at EAT sold $22.3M this week

OSINT: Fed July Minutes: Inflation Risks Remain Skewed to the Upside, Some Officials Ba

Aramark search volume spiked +47 pts, unusual interest

MARZETTI CO search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Novel Set in Atomic Heart Universe Hits Shelves

OSINT: Moderna shares surge 212% after positive Phase 3 cancer mRNA results

OSINT: Bitcoin surges past $70k, triggers $2.7B short liquidations

OSINT: Fed minutes warn of more rate hikes if inflation stalls

OSINT: Robinhood CEO: tokenization expands US asset access globally, US investors lag

OSINT: Doctors' Day Meets Qixi Festival in Romantic White-Coat Celebration

OSINT: China recovers land-based rocket, first successful reuse

OSINT: OpenGacha Pull-Shop Protocol Launches on Solana, Enabling Custom NFT Gacha Pools

OSINT: India faces demographic crunch as aging population threatens growth

OSINT: Singapore announces tax cuts for asset managers, boosting sector profitability

OSINT: Core Scientific Revives From Bankruptcy to AI Data Center Boom

OSINT: Fed Minutes Signal Potential Rate Hike if Inflation Persists

SRX Global Inc. 8-K references SOL treasury activity · filed 2026-08-19

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 6.1%, EPS $114.46 vs $121.8881 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 96.3%, EPS $0.01 vs $0.2703 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 836.9%, EPS $5.2562 vs $0.561 estimate

Large debt issuance: $1.0B due 2033

Unum Group search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Israel's 2nd KC-46A 'Gideon' Tanker Begins Delivery Flight

OSINT: Tom Lee endorses Tenev's tokenization supercycle, citing AI boost

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" moved +62pp in 24h to 89%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?" moved +69pp in 24h to 75%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-08-19?" moved +40pp in 24h to 66%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $12,869 in orders from 13 wallets absorbed at the 29% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will NEC win on 2026-08-19?" moved -32pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Sabah FK win on 2026-08-19?" moved +26pp in 24h to 56%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?" moved +24pp in 24h to 24%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?" moved +25pp in 24h to 26%

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($25,153 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Prediction market repriced: "US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?" moved +22pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?" moved +31pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?" moved +23pp in 24h to 97%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $21,997 in orders from 16 wallets absorbed at the 71% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Games Total: O/U 2.5" moved +28pp in 24h to 66%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": $19,100 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 83% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($39,495 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predi

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?" moved +22pp in 24h to 38%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?" moved -23pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-08-11?" moved +48pp in 24h to 84%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?" moved +29pp in 24h to 82%

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": $10,188 in orders from 18 wallets absorbed at the 6% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Banfield win on 2026-08-18?" moved +38pp in 24h to 90%

OSINT: Russia plans land use shift to expand border checkpoints

OSINT: Russia plans land use shift to expand border checkpoints

OSINT: Helicopter crash in Kenya kills five Americans and Ecuador's intel chief

OSINT: Navy Sailor Charged with Murder in June 6 Shooting aboard Aircraft Carrier

OSINT: Helicopter crash in Kenya kills five Americans and Ecuador's intel chief

OSINT: Navy Sailor Charged with Murder in June 6 Shooting aboard Aircraft Carrier

OSINT: Russia launches massive missile strike on Kyiv, hitting multiple targets

OSINT: US President Signals Oil Price Collapse if Iran Tensions Ease

OSINT: Series of Strong Earthquakes Strikes Indonesia, Raising Regional Risk

OSINT: Ukrainian drone hits Russian ammo convoy, causing explosions, Grad rocket fire

OSINT: Series of Strong Earthquakes Strikes Indonesia, Raising Regional Risk

OSINT: Middle East conflict drives French bottled-water prices higher

OSINT: China recovers land-based rocket, first successful reuse

OSINT: Cass Freight Index drops 4.8% YoY in July, hitting pandemic lows

OSINT: Repeated Unexplained NATO Activity Raises Uncertainty

OSINT: Ukraine detains foreigners for arson at Chernivtsi energy site on Russian orders

tanker_freight_etf shipping +8.0%, potential inflation signal

OSINT: Putin outlines new priorities for Russia's national projects at council meeting

OSINT: US National Debt Tops $40 Trillion

DXY -0.82%, dollar weakness signal

OSINT: Russia shifts pension payouts in Israel to alternative currencies

OSINT: Fed July Minutes: Inflation Risks Remain Skewed to the Upside, Some Officials Ba

OSINT: Trump to Cut Canada Auto Tariffs from 25% to 15% in New Trade Deal

OSINT: Helicopter crash in Kenya kills five Americans and Ecuador's intel chief

OSINT: Europe Pours €19 bn into Energy Crisis as Middle East Conflict Rages

OSINT: Secondary Home Prices Surge 5x Faster Than New Builds

OSINT: US National Debt Interest Expense Hits Record $1.4T, BofA Says

OSINT: Russia launches massive missile strike on Kyiv, hitting multiple targets

OSINT: Bitcoin surges past $70k, triggers $2.7B short liquidations

OSINT: Fed minutes warn of more rate hikes if inflation stalls

OSINT: Trump says bond market volatility shouldn't worry Americans

OSINT: US President Signals Oil Price Collapse if Iran Tensions Ease

OSINT: Ukrainian drone hits Russian ammo convoy, causing explosions, Grad rocket fire

OSINT: Middle East conflict drives French bottled-water prices higher

OSINT: India faces demographic crunch as aging population threatens growth

OSINT: Series of Strong Earthquakes Strikes Indonesia, Raising Regional Risk

OSINT: Government Shifts Debt to Short-Term High-Rate Loans

OSINT: Singapore announces tax cuts for asset managers, boosting sector profitability

OSINT: Fed Minutes Signal Potential Rate Hike if Inflation Persists

OSINT: Repeated Unexplained NATO Activity Raises Uncertainty

OSINT: Ukraine detains foreigners for arson at Chernivtsi energy site on Russian orders

OSINT: Russia's Central Bank sees demand surge, supply gaps boost August prices

OSINT: Putin outlines new priorities for Russia's national projects at council meeting