2026-08-24

Silver volume spike - 783.6× the 20-day average (58,888 vs 75 avg)

Gold volume spike - 33.0× the 20-day average (202,735 vs 6,135 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 957.0× the 20-day average (20,432 vs 21 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 13.8× the 20-day average (190,237 vs 13,740 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 2134.7× the 20-day average (17,184 vs 8 avg)

Copper volume spike - 32.5× the 20-day average (40,386 vs 1,243 avg)

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": $12,650 in orders from 12 wallets absorbed at the 67% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

OSINT: US Signals Possible New Strikes on Iran Amid Trump's Economic D-Day Plan

30Y Treasury Bond volume spike - 2.6× the 20-day average (1,403,927 vs 548,644 avg)

Corn volume spike - 3.2× the 20-day average (476,513 vs 150,938 avg)

Heating Oil fell 6.9% vs prior close ($4.49 → $4.19)

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: Russian Trading Activity Surges Amid New Sanctions

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": 12-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($39,924 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predi

OSINT: Potential Ukraine Geopolitical Event Raises Market Caution

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: Iran warns supporting US sanctions could trigger act of war

Polymarket order flow on "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?": $53,260 in orders from 21 wallets absorbed at the 86% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction marke

OSINT: July Marks Deadliest Month for Ukrainian Civilians in Russia War

OIL RSI 73.4, overbought (crossed above 70)

Gold futures curve moved from contango to flat (front vs second month spread +0.2%)

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 259,621 contracts, 65.25% of open interest (+2.2σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Macron urges tougher action on Russia's shadow fleet

OSINT: Russia threatens attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure

OIL RSI 74.2, overbought (crossed above 70)

OSINT: Pashinyan says Russia's Armenian railway concession at risk

OSINT: Russian court blocks German investor's Gazprom dividend over sanctions

OSINT: Novak Supplies Fuel to Village Amid Farmer Discontent

OIL RSI 73.3, overbought (crossed above 70)

Prediction market repriced: "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?" moved -15pp in 24h to 18%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?" moved +15pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-08-24?" moved +54pp in 24h to 82%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($19,431 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?" moved -47pp in 24h to 41%

Polymarket order flow on "US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($19,273 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predict

Prediction market repriced: "Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-08-24?" moved +20pp in 24h to 82%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $13,144 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 33% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?" moved +23pp in 24h to 51%

Polymarket order flow on "US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($13,297 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($149,781 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pre

Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": $11,325 in orders from 16 wallets absorbed at the 84% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?" moved +32pp in 24h to 79%

OSINT: July Marks Deadliest Month for Ukrainian Civilians in Russia War

OSINT: Kyiv Volunteer Coalition Shows Support Amid Ongoing Conflict

Prediction market repriced: "Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-24?" moved -18pp in 24h to 11%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?" moved -17pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Hallescher FC win on 2026-08-24?" moved +16pp in 24h to 26%

OSINT: Macron urges tougher action on Russia's shadow fleet

OSINT: Macron urges tougher action on Russia's shadow fleet

OSINT: Russia threatens attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure

OSINT: Russia threatens attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by Au" moved +15pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-08-24?" moved -16pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by Au" moved -16pp in 24h to 22%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31" moved +19pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?" moved +15pp in 24h to 86%

OSINT: Pashinyan says Russia's Armenian railway concession at risk

Prediction market repriced: "Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?" moved +16pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?" moved +17pp in 24h to 39%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?" moved -16pp in 24h to 2%

OSINT: Former NATO chief says Ukraine key to Europe's security

4 insiders at CBRS sold $171.3M this week

5 insiders at LYNX sold $154.7M this week

4 insiders at AVAH sold $196.3M this week

2 insiders at ILMN sold $145.8M this week

8 insiders at CRWV sold $34.3M this week

7 insiders at CAH sold $59.6M this week

2 insiders at SYK sold $118.1M this week

4 insiders at CBRS sold $171.3M this week

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 24?" moved -38pp in 24h to 18%

Debt issued with acquisition financing named as the use of proceeds

2 insiders at ILMN sold $145.8M this week

8 insiders at CRWV sold $34.3M this week

7 insiders at CAH sold $59.6M this week

2 insiders at SYK sold $118.1M this week

4 insiders at CBRS sold $171.3M this week

2 insiders at ILMN sold $145.8M this week

7 insiders at CAH sold $59.6M this week

2 insiders at SYK sold $118.1M this week

8 insiders at CRWV sold $34.3M this week

4 insiders at CBRS sold $171.3M this week

2 insiders at ILMN sold $145.8M this week

2 insiders at SYK sold $118.1M this week

7 insiders at CAH sold $59.6M this week

8 insiders at CRWV sold $34.3M this week

OSINT: Microloan Agreements Slip 1.5% in Three-Month Quarter

OSINT: Popstars Returns: Mambrú Members' Post-Show Careers Unveiled

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 149.3%, EPS $-1.4119 vs $-0.5663 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 55.1%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.4896 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 26.5%, EPS $0.50 vs $0.3953 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 30.7%, EPS $-0.12 vs $-0.0918 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 24.9%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.2963 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 30.8%, EPS $-0.06 vs $-0.0867 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 250.1%, EPS $-0.25 vs $-0.0714 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 16.2%, EPS $-0.89 vs $-0.7656 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.4%, EPS $0.21 vs $0.2268 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 26.4%, EPS $0.79 vs $0.6251 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 61.7%, EPS $-0.10 vs $-0.261 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 372.4%, EPS $-0.53 vs $-0.1122 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 77.8%, EPS $0.15 vs $0.6767 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 2681.0%, EPS $6.2043 vs $0.2231 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 107.2%, EPS $0.56 vs $0.2703 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 9.8%, EPS $2.06 vs $1.8763 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.7%, EPS $0.70 vs $0.6156 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.7%, EPS $1.16 vs $1.2305 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 51.0%, EPS $-0.03 vs $-0.0612 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 48.5%, EPS $0.09 vs $0.0606 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.4%, EPS $1.22 vs $1.1363 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.6%, EPS $-0.16 vs $-0.1515 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 10.1%, EPS $0.75 vs $0.6809 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 117.6%, EPS $2.14 vs $0.9833 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 42.4%, EPS $0.5051 vs $0.8767 estimate

D-Wave Quantum Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Prediction market repriced: "Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?" moved +16pp in 24h to 49%

BITMINE IMMERSION TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (BMNP, BMNR) 8-K references 210 BTC treasury activity · filed 2026-08-24

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 182.5%, EPS $0.15 vs $-0.1818 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 46.5%, EPS $-0.22 vs $-0.1502 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 86.4%, EPS $60.08 vs $32.2264 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.9%, EPS $1.13 vs $1.0472 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 14.6%, EPS $-0.80 vs $-0.6982 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.9%, EPS $-0.18 vs $-0.1581 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.6%, EPS $0.16 vs $0.1434 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.3%, EPS $0.16 vs $0.169 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 60.8%, EPS $-0.03 vs $-0.0765 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 28.5%, EPS $-0.46 vs $-0.643 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 39.2%, EPS $0.88 vs $0.6324 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.4%, EPS $1.42 vs $1.3473 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 33.7%, EPS $0.15 vs $0.1122 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.6%, EPS $-1.52 vs $-1.7001 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.6%, EPS $-0.24 vs $-0.2625 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.3%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.3294 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 21.3%, EPS $1.34 vs $1.702 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.6%, EPS $-0.27 vs $-0.2557 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.3%, EPS $6.41 vs $6.0885 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 43.2%, EPS $0.50 vs $0.3492 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 26.3%, EPS $-0.53 vs $-0.7191 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 45.2%, EPS $0.80 vs $0.5508 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.6%, EPS $-2.44 vs $-2.6996 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 96.1%, EPS $0.66 vs $0.3366 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 46.5%, EPS $0.18 vs $0.1229 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 20.4%, EPS $0.26 vs $0.3267 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 25.1%, EPS $187.60 vs $149.9886 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.2%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.0533 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 100.0%, EPS $0.00 vs $0.0657 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 3740.8%, EPS $-26.64 vs $-0.6936 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 89.6%, EPS $9.58 vs $5.0531 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 21.6%, EPS $3.07 vs $2.5248 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 14.6%, EPS $51.34 vs $44.8181 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 64.7%, EPS $-0.2021 vs $-0.573 estimate

CubeSmart search volume spiked +39 pts, unusual interest

D-Wave Quantum Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 131.7%, EPS $-0.4046 vs $1.275 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 55.1%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.4896 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.2%, EPS $0.63 vs $0.5467 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 93.2%, EPS $-1.13 vs $-0.5848 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 18.1%, EPS $0.60 vs $0.7324 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 16.7%, EPS $0.34 vs $0.408 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 6.4%, EPS $-0.19 vs $-0.1785 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 26.2%, EPS $2.37 vs $1.878 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 19.6%, EPS $1.33 vs $1.1118 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 124.0%, EPS $-1.20 vs $-0.5356 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 32.5%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.2074 estimate

CubeSmart search volume spiked +39 pts, unusual interest

USDC/USDT has $83.0M 24h volume on $884K liquidity (94x turnover): thin market, elevated slippage

Prediction market repriced: "Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?" moved +25pp in 24h to 32%

SOL/USDC has $37.4M 24h volume on $745K liquidity (50x turnover): thin market, elevated slippage

Polymarket order flow on "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?": $15,504 in orders from 11 wallets absorbed at the 13% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on August 24?" moved +44pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?" moved +21pp in 24h to 54%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26?" moved +22pp in 24h to 61%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in August?" moved -22pp in 24h to 43%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?" moved -21pp in 24h to 64%

UNI open interest +20.8% over 24h, OI surge

NEAR open interest +20.5% over 24h, OI surge

SOL/USDC has $30.0M 24h volume on $546K liquidity (55x turnover): thin market, elevated slippage

ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.65x): on-chain trade volume 0.65x liquidity

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (1.55x): on-chain trade volume 1.55x liquidity

Polymarket order flow on "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($58,055 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.68x): on-chain trade volume 0.68x liquidity

BTC liquidations totaled $5.7M in the past hour, 3% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

ETH liquidations totaled $5.4M in the past hour, 17% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

OSINT: Russia Warns of Reverse Transfer Scam Targeting Funds

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (1.09x): on-chain trade volume 1.09x liquidity

USDC 7d exchange netflow flipped to net inflow of $178M after $61M net outflow the prior 7d · self-transfers excluded

Prediction market repriced: "Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?" moved +15pp in 24h to 55%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?" moved +16pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?" moved -17pp in 24h to 30%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?" moved +19pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?" moved +17pp in 24h to 60%

OSINT: July Marks Deadliest Month for Ukrainian Civilians in Russia War

OSINT: Kyiv Volunteer Coalition Shows Support Amid Ongoing Conflict

OSINT: Microloan Agreements Slip 1.5% in Three-Month Quarter

OSINT: Russia threatens attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure

OSINT: Russian banks report earnings surge

OSINT: Russia Warns of Reverse Transfer Scam Targeting Funds

OSINT: Pashinyan says Russia's Armenian railway concession at risk

OSINT: Russian court blocks German investor's Gazprom dividend over sanctions

OSINT: Novak Supplies Fuel to Village Amid Farmer Discontent

OSINT: Yen Rises to 158 per Dollar as Dollar Selling Gains Momentum