2026-08-25

Copper volume spike - 33.7× the 20-day average (40,770 vs 1,210 avg)

Silver volume spike - 691.1× the 20-day average (51,559 vs 74 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 1851.3× the 20-day average (14,903 vs 8 avg)

Gold volume spike - 28.3× the 20-day average (173,786 vs 6,141 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 743.5× the 20-day average (15,986 vs 21 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 10.7× the 20-day average (135,304 vs 12,665 avg)

OSINT: Billion-Dollar Outflows Hit World's 'Craziest' Stock Market

Corn volume spike - 2.4× the 20-day average (360,573 vs 147,989 avg)

Brent Crude Oil fell 6.8% vs prior close ($92.17 → $85.86)

30Y Treasury Bond volume spike - 2.4× the 20-day average (1,365,972 vs 561,947 avg)

Oil -4.89%: significant decline on the session

OSINT: Ratcliffe's Moscow visit amid German probe into attempted attack

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($38,608 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predic

OSINT: Yen Weakness Pressures BOJ Toward Policy Shift

OSINT: US C-17 cargo plane spotted en route from Latvia to Moscow, raising tension

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

Prediction market repriced: "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?" moved -36pp in 24h to 52%

OSINT: US and EU impose fresh sanctions on Russia targeting energy and finance

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?" moved -20pp in 24h to 18%

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: China's Oil Demand Likely Peaked in 2023, Says Global Refiner

Gold +1.79%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Russia's Justice Ministry launches register of temporarily sanctioned individual

WTI Crude Oil fell 4.6% vs prior close ($85.01 → $81.11)

10Y Treasury Note volume spike - 2.2× the 20-day average (4,550,631 vs 2,057,547 avg)

Heating Oil fell 4.9% vs prior close ($4.27 → $4.06)

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?" moved +18pp in 24h to 66%

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 259,621 contracts, 65.25% of open interest (+2.2σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Armenia Opens Borders to Russian Flee-ees Amid Russia’s Mass Mobilisation

OSINT: US Air Force removes markings, flies only US flag in covert operation

OSINT: EU Commission says global energy system more resilient than expected

OSINT: FBIrol cites AC, Data Centers, EVs as Top Global Power Demand Drivers

OSINT: FBIrol cites AC, Data Centers, EVs as Top Global Power Demand Drivers

OSINT: IEA warns Middle East war will boost coal demand

OSINT: TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne describes the supply and demand fundamentals

OSINT: Shell CEO warns petroleum product markets tighter than crude

OSINT: Emerging Nations Turn Back to Coal as LNG Trust Erodes After Price Shocks

OSINT: Fuel Shortages Spark Long Queues at Tehran Gas Stations Amid US Blockade

OSINT: US Navy Clears Strait of Hormuz Mines, Oil Prices Slip to $82

OSINT: SDF to dissolve, merge into Syrian state forces, says commander

OSINT: Explosion and fire cripple Russia's Amur Gas Chemical Complex

OSINT: US Navy Drones Clear 100+ Iranian Mines in Strait of Hormuz

OSINT: Moscow Meeting Seen as Warning to Russia Over European Provocations

OSINT: Brent Crude Slides to $88.33 as Oil Prices Accelerate Downward

OSINT: Rising Russia-NATO Tensions Hint at Escalating Hybrid Threats in Europe

OSINT: US Air Force aircraft departs Moscow amid brief Ratcliffe meeting

Gold +1.26%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Houthi missile hits Saudi tanker Amzan in Red Sea, ignites fire

OSINT: Ukrainian drones damage Russian Millerovo airbase, hit MiG-29

OSINT: UK to supply Ukraine long-range weapons to strike Russian missile sites

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 25?" moved +64pp in 24h to 95%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26?" moved -22pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?" moved -26pp in 24h to 15%

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on August 25?" moved -30pp in 24h to 21%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 25?" moved -23pp in 24h to 10%

Polymarket order flow on "Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?": $20,317 in orders from 11 wallets absorbed at the 81% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?" moved -20pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?" moved -36pp in 24h to 26%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Solana be above $90 on August 27?" moved +24pp in 24h to 97%

SOL/USDC has $46.5M 24h volume on $713K liquidity (65x turnover): thin market, elevated slippage

SOL/USDC has $46.1M 24h volume on $571K liquidity (81x turnover): thin market, elevated slippage

SOL open interest +20.1% over 24h, OI surge

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27?" moved +22pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Solana reach $110 in August?" moved +27pp in 24h to 48%

OSINT: US Treasury Signals Historic Intervention, Yields Remain Stubborn

OSINT: Kobeissi Letter Reports 30.7% Net Return, Beats S&P 500 in 2025

OSINT: Bitcoin Surpasses $80,000, First Time Since Mid-May

OSINT: Anthropic claims potential revenue exceeds $30 trillion, WSJ reports

OSINT: US Data Center Count Released by State and Status

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26?" moved +15pp in 24h to 77%

OSINT: NVIDIA Server Prices Jump 15% Triggering Cloud Profit Squeeze

ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.52x): on-chain trade volume 0.52x liquidity

Polymarket order flow on "Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?": $15,722 in orders from 3 wallets absorbed at the 83% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

2 insiders at CBRS sold $198.4M this week

6 insiders at AVAH sold $558.5M this week

5 insiders at LYNX sold $154.7M this week

4 insiders at MEDP sold $45.8M this week

2 insiders at PLTR sold $86.6M this week

3 insiders at AUGO sold $39.4M this week

5 insiders at STX sold $43.4M this week

5 insiders at LYNX sold $154.7M this week

6 insiders at AVAH sold $558.5M this week

3 insiders at AUGO sold $39.4M this week

2 insiders at PLTR sold $86.6M this week

5 insiders at STX sold $43.4M this week

6 insiders at AVAH sold $558.5M this week

5 insiders at LYNX sold $154.7M this week

2 insiders at PLTR sold $86.6M this week

3 insiders at AUGO sold $39.4M this week

5 insiders at STX sold $43.4M this week

6 insiders at AVAH sold $558.5M this week

5 insiders at LYNX sold $154.7M this week

Activist 13D filing, dividend

3 insiders at AUGO sold $39.4M this week

2 insiders at PLTR sold $86.6M this week

7 insiders at DASH sold $31.5M this week

5 insiders at STX sold $43.4M this week

4 insiders at MEDP sold $35.9M this week

OSINT: Russia's Justice Ministry launches register of temporarily sanctioned individual

Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. search volume spiked +40 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: FBIrol cites AC, Data Centers, EVs as Top Global Power Demand Drivers

OSINT: US Treasury Signals Historic Intervention, Yields Remain Stubborn

OSINT: Kobeissi Letter Reports 30.7% Net Return, Beats S&P 500 in 2025

OSINT: Bitcoin Surpasses $80,000, First Time Since Mid-May

TransUnion search volume spiked +40 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Anthropic claims potential revenue exceeds $30 trillion, WSJ reports

OSINT: US Data Center Count Released by State and Status

OSINT: Pelosi's disclosed BE and Intel call options spark market attention

OSINT: Trump's $50K SpaceX purchase coincides with $425.6M NASA contract

OSINT: Keenable launches AI infrastructure platform for large-scale search

OSINT: Trump Admin Proposes $100K H-1B Fee to Fund Immigration Enforcement

OSINT: NVIDIA Server Prices Jump 15% Triggering Cloud Profit Squeeze

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.6%, EPS $1.3476 vs $1.2409 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 16.7%, EPS $-0.73 vs $-0.6256 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 61.0%, EPS $0.26 vs $0.1615 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 149.6%, EPS $114.78 vs $45.9866 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 49.1%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.1573 estimate

OSINT: Ukrainian FP-1 Drone Strikes Burning Ozon Distribution Center in Dagestan

Prediction market repriced: "Will EC Juventude win on 2026-08-25?" moved -34pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CR Brasil win on 2026-08-25?" moved +38pp in 24h to 62%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?" moved +22pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?" moved -22pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-08-25?" moved +44pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-08-25?" moved +23pp in 24h to 84%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Watford FC win on 2026-08-25?" moved -47pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Southampton FC win on 2026-08-25?" moved +34pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Celtic FC win on 2026-08-25?" moved +20pp in 24h to 48%

Prediction market repriced: "Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-08-25?" moved -28pp in 24h to 8%

OSINT: Ratcliffe's Moscow visit amid German probe into attempted attack

Prediction market repriced: "Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?" moved +36pp in 24h to 78%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": $61,514 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 83% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

OSINT: US C-17 cargo plane spotted en route from Latvia to Moscow, raising tension

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 6-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($25,297 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?" moved -33pp in 24h to 8%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Lanús win on 2026-08-24?" moved -21pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Talleres win on 2026-08-24?" moved -24pp in 24h to 10%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 7-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($30,715 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?" moved -32pp in 24h to 47%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($12,470 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $13,541 in orders from 22 wallets absorbed at the 67% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

OSINT: Russia's Justice Ministry launches register of temporarily sanctioned individual

OSINT: Attack on TCC notification group in Ternopil injures serviceman, damages vehicle

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 23%

OSINT: Armenia Opens Borders to Russian Flee-ees Amid Russia’s Mass Mobilisation

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 30%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?" moved +18pp in 24h to 56%

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 47%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" moved +18pp in 24h to 30%

OSINT: US Air Force removes markings, flies only US flag in covert operation

OSINT: IEA warns Middle East war will boost coal demand

OSINT: Shell CEO warns petroleum product markets tighter than crude

OSINT: Emerging Nations Turn Back to Coal as LNG Trust Erodes After Price Shocks

OSINT: US Navy Clears Strait of Hormuz Mines, Oil Prices Slip to $82

OSINT: US Navy Clears Strait of Hormuz Mines, Oil Prices Slip to $82

OSINT: SDF to dissolve, merge into Syrian state forces, says commander

OSINT: Trump's $50K SpaceX purchase coincides with $425.6M NASA contract

OSINT: US Navy Drones Clear 100+ Iranian Mines in Strait of Hormuz

OSINT: US Navy Drones Clear 100+ Iranian Mines in Strait of Hormuz

OSINT: Trump Admin Proposes $100K H-1B Fee to Fund Immigration Enforcement

OSINT: Moscow Meeting Seen as Warning to Russia Over European Provocations

OSINT: Rising Russia-NATO Tensions Hint at Escalating Hybrid Threats in Europe

OSINT: Rising Russia-NATO Tensions Hint at Escalating Hybrid Threats in Europe

OSINT: US Air Force aircraft departs Moscow amid brief Ratcliffe meeting

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($42,848 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predi

Prediction market repriced: "Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?" moved +16pp in 24h to 93%

OSINT: Ukrainian drones damage Russian Millerovo airbase, hit MiG-29

OSINT: Houthi missile hits Saudi tanker Amzan in Red Sea, ignites fire

OSINT: Houthi missile hits Saudi tanker Amzan in Red Sea, ignites fire

OSINT: Explosion reported near Makhachkala port in Dagestan, Russia

OSINT: Zelenskyy Rejects Wartime Elections, Citing War Effort Risks

OSINT: Ukrainian FP-1 Drone Strikes Burning Ozon Distribution Center in Dagestan

OSINT: Ratcliffe's Moscow visit amid German probe into attempted attack

OSINT: US C-17 cargo plane spotted en route from Latvia to Moscow, raising tension

OSINT: Russia's Justice Ministry launches register of temporarily sanctioned individual

OSINT: Armenia Opens Borders to Russian Flee-ees Amid Russia’s Mass Mobilisation

OSINT: US Air Force removes markings, flies only US flag in covert operation

OSINT: FBIrol cites AC, Data Centers, EVs as Top Global Power Demand Drivers

OSINT: TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne describes the supply and demand fundamentals

OSINT: EU Commission says global energy system more resilient than expected

OSINT: IEA warns Middle East war will boost coal demand

OSINT: US Commercial & Industrial Loans Jump $254B YoY to 2.93T, Highest Since 2020

OSINT: Emerging Nations Turn Back to Coal as LNG Trust Erodes After Price Shocks

OSINT: Kobeissi Letter Reports 30.7% Net Return, Beats S&P 500 in 2025

OSINT: US Treasury Signals Historic Intervention, Yields Remain Stubborn

OSINT: Fuel Shortages Spark Long Queues at Tehran Gas Stations Amid US Blockade

OSINT: Bitcoin Surpasses $80,000, First Time Since Mid-May

OSINT: Investors Flock to Treasury Bill ETFs, Abandon Long-Term Bonds

OSINT: Austrian Nutrition Minister Blocks Proposed Sugar Tax

OSINT: Explosion and fire cripple Russia's Amur Gas Chemical Complex

OSINT: SDF to dissolve, merge into Syrian state forces, says commander

OSINT: Trump Admin Proposes $100K H-1B Fee to Fund Immigration Enforcement

OSINT: Moscow Meeting Seen as Warning to Russia Over European Provocations

OSINT: Rural Region Calls for Direct Aid Amid Historic Crisis

OSINT: Rising Russia-NATO Tensions Hint at Escalating Hybrid Threats in Europe

OSINT: Brent Crude Slides to $88.33 as Oil Prices Accelerate Downward

OSINT: US Air Force aircraft departs Moscow amid brief Ratcliffe meeting

OSINT: Ukrainian drones damage Russian Millerovo airbase, hit MiG-29

OSINT: Zelenskyy Rejects Wartime Elections, Citing War Effort Risks

OSINT: Ukrainian FP-1 Drone Strikes Burning Ozon Distribution Center in Dagestan

OSINT: UK to supply Ukraine long-range weapons to strike Russian missile sites