2026-09-12

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-09-12?" moved +61pp in 24h to 84%

Prediction market repriced: "Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-09-12?" moved +62pp in 24h to 87%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Talleres win on 2026-09-12?" moved +35pp in 24h to 78%

tanker_freight_etf shipping +11.8%, potential inflation signal

Polymarket order flow on "Israel closes its airspace by September 30?": 5-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($17,347 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "No one announced as next James Bond?" moved +28pp in 24h to 49%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA River Plate win on 2026-09-12?" moved +46pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-09-12?" moved -39pp in 24h to 42%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Lorient win on 2026-09-12?" moved +50pp in 24h to 88%

Prediction market repriced: "Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-09-12?" moved +23pp in 24h to 70%

tanker_freight_etf shipping +11.8%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-09-12?" moved +30pp in 24h to 67%

Prediction market repriced: "Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-12?" moved +21pp in 24h to 56%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-09-12?" moved +26pp in 24h to 77%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-12?" moved +44pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-09-12?" moved -42pp in 24h to 2%

Prediction market repriced: "Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-12?" moved -23pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Will L.R. Vicenza win on 2026-09-12?" moved +34pp in 24h to 79%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-09-12?" moved +52pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Calcio Padova win on 2026-09-12?" moved +31pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-09-12?" moved +26pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-09-12?" moved +23pp in 24h to 76%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $32,043 in orders from 104 wallets absorbed at the 79% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predi

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($111,458 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pre

Prediction market repriced: "Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-09-12?" moved -22pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-12?" moved +30pp in 24h to 65%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-09-12?" moved -43pp in 24h to 10%

tanker_freight_etf shipping +11.8%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?" moved +31pp in 24h to 94%

tanker_freight_etf shipping +11.8%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-09-11?" moved -31pp in 24h to 20%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $21,992 in orders from 29 wallets absorbed at the 19% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by Se" moved -26pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by Se" moved +30pp in 24h to 51%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($25,016 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

OSINT: China Aids Iran in Evading U.S. Sanctions, Boosting Oil Flow

Prediction market repriced: "Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?" moved -15pp in 24h to 21%

OSINT: US Marines Conduct 60mm Mortar Live Fire at Camp Santiago, Puerto Rico

OSINT: Saudi Air Force Conducts 120 Airstrikes Over Two Days

OSINT: Saudi-backed Yemeni Units 80% Ghost Soldiers, Raising Red Sea Security Risks

OSINT: Saudi-backed Yemeni Units 80% Ghost Soldiers, Raising Red Sea Security Risks

OSINT: Global South Pushes Back on Western Privileges

OSINT: Global South Pushes Back on Western Privileges

OSINT: Milei pushes Malvinas Sovereignty Defense bill to Congress

OSINT: Milei pushes Malvinas Sovereignty Defense bill to Congress

OSINT: China Boosts Crude Imports, Rebuilding Oil Reserves

Prediction market repriced: "Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?" moved -17pp in 24h to 31%

OSINT: Additional Hit on Russian 9A317 TELAR Raises Defense Tensions

OSINT: Ukrainian HIMARS destroys Russian Buk TEL, triggers missile cookoff

Prediction market repriced: "Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 30%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Lugano win on 2026-09-12?" moved -18pp in 24h to 20%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 M": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($237,104 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pre

OSINT: Trump promises $5,000 to supporters if Republicans win Midterms

OSINT: Oil Prices Jump 7% Amid Market Turbulence

OSINT: Saudi East-West Pipeline Boosts 7 mbd Crude Flow, Bypasses Hormuz

OSINT: Ukraine embeds drone operators with Mali Tuareg rebels, hits Russian convoys

OSINT: Russia's Frontline Losses Surge as AI-Ukrainian Drones Block Evacuations

OSINT: Ukrainian Sargan 3000 USV Sinks Russian Drone Boat in First Drone-Boat Clash

OSINT: Ukrainian Sargan 3000 USV Sinks Russian Drone Boat in First Drone-Boat Clash

OSINT: Ukraine embeds drone operators with Mali Tuareg rebels, hits Russian convoys

OSINT: US naval blockade of Iran forces redirection of 100 commercial vessels

OSINT: North Korea recruits foreign experts to infiltrate US firms, OSINT says

OSINT: Trump says Iran war could end soon, raising market speculation

OSINT: EU Sanctions Seen as Opportunity for Russia, Says Dudchak

OSINT: Deputy Matveichev warns Europe is trapped in Ukraine conflict

OSINT: Russian Official Discusses Holding Russia-USA-Germany Business Forum

OSINT: US Navy blockade curtails crude exports from Gulf of Oman for 60 days

OSINT: US Navy blockade curtails crude exports from Gulf of Oman for 60 days

Prediction market repriced: "Will Brentford FC win on 2026-09-12?" moved -17pp in 24h to 18%

Prediction market repriced: "Will SCR Altach win on 2026-09-12?" moved +15pp in 24h to 60%

6 insiders at ESTC sold $18.8M this week

3 insiders at CRWV sold $42.1M this week

3 insiders at KIDS sold $19.1M this week

2 insiders at HNGE sold $27.3M this week

5 insiders at DELL sold $143.8M this week

6 insiders at ESTC sold $18.8M this week

3 insiders at CRWV sold $42.1M this week

3 insiders at KIDS sold $19.1M this week

2 insiders at HNGE sold $27.3M this week

5 insiders at DELL sold $143.8M this week

6 insiders at ESTC sold $18.8M this week

Activist 13D filing, dividend

3 insiders at CRWV sold $42.1M this week

3 insiders at KIDS sold $19.1M this week

2 insiders at HNGE sold $27.3M this week

5 insiders at DELL sold $143.8M this week

6 insiders at ESTC sold $18.8M this week

3 insiders at CRWV sold $42.1M this week

3 insiders at KIDS sold $19.1M this week

2 insiders at HNGE sold $27.3M this week

5 insiders at DELL sold $143.8M this week

OSINT: China Aids Iran in Evading U.S. Sanctions, Boosting Oil Flow

OSINT: De la Espriella Tightens Control Over Colombia Stats Agency

OSINT: Colombia launches major renewable energy project in La Guajira

OSINT: Mass Climate March in Amsterdam Draws Tens of Thousands

OSINT: Global South Pushes Back on Western Privileges

OSINT: AI Surge Boosts S&P 500 Profit Forecast to +32% in 2026

AAPL RSI 70.6, overbought (crossed above 70)

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.75%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.2%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 7.0%, above the credit-stress threshold

OSINT: Japan's Declining Population Raises Economic Concerns

OSINT: Anthropic flags 35 potentially risky AI research projects in 30-day review

OSINT: Trump Announces $500 Checks to be Mailed in October

OSINT: Larry Ellison to Sell Up to $7.5B of Oracle Shares

Citi Trends Inc search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 81% in Kalshi Market

OSINT: Ukrainian Sargan 3000 USV Sinks Russian Drone Boat in First Drone-Boat Clash

OSINT: North Korea recruits foreign experts to infiltrate US firms, OSINT says

OSINT: France pushes to lift EU sanctions on Russian tycoon Alisher Usmanov

OSINT: Nvidia Mulls $10B Stake in Potential Record Anthropic IPO

OSINT: Russian Official Discusses Holding Russia-USA-Germany Business Forum

OSINT: Explosions Reported on Iran's Qeshm Island Raise Regional Tensions

OSINT: Iranian President Meets Abu Dhabi Crown Prince in New Delhi

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?" moved +20pp in 24h to 50%

OSINT: Russian missile strike hits Odessa oil terminal, disrupting Black Sea fuel expor

OSINT: U.S. Navy Reviews Future of Key Middle East Base After Iran War Damage

OSINT: China Aids Iran in Evading U.S. Sanctions, Boosting Oil Flow

Oil -2.37%: significant decline on the session

OSINT: Colombia launches major renewable energy project in La Guajira

OSINT: Mass Climate March in Amsterdam Draws Tens of Thousands

Brent Crude Oil volume spike - 2.2× the 20-day average (72,538 vs 32,858 avg)

OSINT: Saudi Air Force Conducts 120 Airstrikes Over Two Days

OSINT: Saudi-backed Yemeni Units 80% Ghost Soldiers, Raising Red Sea Security Risks

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 268,533 contracts, 67.00% of open interest (+2.4σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Milei pushes Malvinas Sovereignty Defense bill to Congress

OSINT: Global South Pushes Back on Western Privileges

OSINT: China Boosts Crude Imports, Rebuilding Oil Reserves

OSINT: Ukrainian HIMARS destroys Russian Buk TEL, triggers missile cookoff

OSINT: Used-car sales of sub-$20k models drop to 32% from 55% in 2019

OSINT: Additional Hit on Russian 9A317 TELAR Raises Defense Tensions

OSINT: Trump promises $5,000 to supporters if Republicans win Midterms

OSINT: Oil Prices Jump 7% Amid Market Turbulence

OSINT: Brent Crude Surges to $108, Up 77% Since Jan 1

OSINT: Pitchbook Unveiled at Canada Investment Summit Draws BlackRock, PIF

OSINT: Energy commodities surge sharply in 2024, gas up 192%

OSINT: Saudi East-West Pipeline Boosts 7 mbd Crude Flow, Bypasses Hormuz

OSINT: GCC condemns Iraqi strike on Saudi East-West oil pipeline as escalation

OSINT: Ukraine embeds drone operators with Mali Tuareg rebels, hits Russian convoys

OSINT: Russia's Frontline Losses Surge as AI-Ukrainian Drones Block Evacuations

OSINT: US naval blockade of Iran forces redirection of 100 commercial vessels

Oil -2.37%: significant decline on the session

OSINT: Trump says Iran war could end soon, raising market speculation

OSINT: Russian Official Discusses Holding Russia-USA-Germany Business Forum

OSINT: Deputy Matveichev warns Europe is trapped in Ukraine conflict

OSINT: EU Sanctions Seen as Opportunity for Russia, Says Dudchak

OSINT: US Navy blockade curtails crude exports from Gulf of Oman for 60 days

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?" moved -38pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on September 12?" moved -48pp in 24h to 3%

EMBER/SOL has $34.6M 24h volume on $633K liquidity (55x turnover): thin market, elevated slippage

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (1.34x): on-chain trade volume 1.34x liquidity

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 September 7-13?" moved -16pp in 24h to 22%

OSINT: Anthropic flags 35 potentially risky AI research projects in 30-day review

OSINT: Trump Announces $500 Checks to be Mailed in October

OSINT: Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 81% in Kalshi Market

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (1.43x): on-chain trade volume 1.43x liquidity

OSINT: US Treasury Bills Near $7.5T Maturity in Next Year, Liquidity Risk Looms

OSINT: North Korea recruits foreign experts to infiltrate US firms, OSINT says

OSINT: France pushes to lift EU sanctions on Russian tycoon Alisher Usmanov

OSINT: Nvidia Mulls $10B Stake in Potential Record Anthropic IPO

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?" moved +15pp in 24h to 68%

OSINT: China Aids Iran in Evading U.S. Sanctions, Boosting Oil Flow

OSINT: Mass Climate March in Amsterdam Draws Tens of Thousands

OSINT: Chile's Economy Shows Signs of Strain Amid Inflation and Policy Uncertainty

OSINT: Colombia launches major renewable energy project in La Guajira

OSINT: De la Espriella Tightens Control Over Colombia Stats Agency

OSINT: Saudi Air Force Conducts 120 Airstrikes Over Two Days

OSINT: Saudi-backed Yemeni Units 80% Ghost Soldiers, Raising Red Sea Security Risks

OSINT: Global South Pushes Back on Western Privileges

OSINT: Milei pushes Malvinas Sovereignty Defense bill to Congress

OSINT: US Debt Burden Hits 98.4% of Receipts, Crisis Looms

OSINT: China Boosts Crude Imports, Rebuilding Oil Reserves

OSINT: Japan's Declining Population Raises Economic Concerns

OSINT: Ukrainian HIMARS destroys Russian Buk TEL, triggers missile cookoff

OSINT: IMF Funds Argentina Day Before 9/11, Triggering Downturn

OSINT: Fed Chair Powell's New Maryland Property Holdings Revealed

OSINT: Trump Announces $500 Checks to be Mailed in October

OSINT: US July Fiscal Deficit Surges to $432.3B, Highest Since 2021

OSINT: Oil Prices Jump 7% Amid Market Turbulence

OSINT: US Tariff Revenue Surpasses Refunds, Posting First Net Positive Since April

OSINT: Trump promises $5,000 to supporters if Republicans win Midterms

OSINT: Brent Crude Surges to $108, Up 77% Since Jan 1

OSINT: Pitchbook Unveiled at Canada Investment Summit Draws BlackRock, PIF

OSINT: Saudi East-West Pipeline Boosts 7 mbd Crude Flow, Bypasses Hormuz

OSINT: GCC condemns Iraqi strike on Saudi East-West oil pipeline as escalation

OSINT: US 30-yr Treasury Yield Hits 5.38%, Highest Since 2007

OSINT: Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 81% in Kalshi Market

OSINT: Ukraine embeds drone operators with Mali Tuareg rebels, hits Russian convoys

OSINT: Russia's Frontline Losses Surge as AI-Ukrainian Drones Block Evacuations

OSINT: US naval blockade of Iran forces redirection of 100 commercial vessels

OSINT: US Treasury Bills Near $7.5T Maturity in Next Year, Liquidity Risk Looms

OSINT: North Korea recruits foreign experts to infiltrate US firms, OSINT says

OSINT: Trump says Iran war could end soon, raising market speculation

OSINT: EU Sanctions Seen as Opportunity for Russia, Says Dudchak

OSINT: Russian Official Discusses Holding Russia-USA-Germany Business Forum

OSINT: Argentine Central Bank Gold Transfer Sparks Switzerland vs England Controversy

OSINT: France pushes to lift EU sanctions on Russian tycoon Alisher Usmanov

OSINT: Deputy Matveichev warns Europe is trapped in Ukraine conflict

OSINT: US Navy blockade curtails crude exports from Gulf of Oman for 60 days