Macro Event Impact
How US stocks, Treasuries, gold, the dollar and the VIX moved after Fed decisions, CPI prints and payroll releases, measured in trading sessions and set against each asset's ordinary session.
Across 145 Fed decisions that held rates since 2000, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had a median move of +0.13% over the decision session, higher on 57% of them, against a +0.07% median for any session. Across 340 CPI releases its median release-session move was +0.13%, higher on 57%. Long Treasuries (TLT) moved a median +0.11% on CPI sessions.
Kresmion measures each asset's move from the last close before every Fed decision, CPI release and payroll release to the close 1, 5, 21 and 63 trading sessions later, then reports the median, quartiles and hit rate of those moves beside the same statistics over every session of the asset's history.
As of . Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar, FRED Fed funds target range, FRED release dates (CPI, Employment Situation), FRED 2-year Treasury yield (DGS2). Method and limitations.
The headline matrixall events, 1 trading session
| Asset | Fed hold n=145 | Fed cut 25bp n=15 | Fed hike 25bp n=34 | CPI release n=340 | Payrolls (NFP) n=329 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) percent | +0.13% hit 57% | -0.12% hit 40% | +0.05% hit 53% | +0.13% hit 57% | +0.14% hit 56% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) percent | +0.38% hit 63% | -0.04% hit 47% | +0.05% hit 53% | +0.24% hit 58% | +0.12% hit 54% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) percent | +0.28% hit 56% | -0.35% hit 40% | +0.43% hit 59% | +0.08% hit 52% | +0.19% hit 55% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) percent | 0.00% hit 50% | +0.41% hit 58% | +0.29% hit 75% | +0.11% hit 54% | -0.06% hit 48% |
| Gold (GLD) percent | +0.15% hit 54% | -0.38% hit 45% | +0.01% hit 50% | +0.17% hit 54% | +0.07% hit 56% |
| Dollar index percent | -0.06% hit 45% | -0.04% hit 47% | -0.07% hit 41% | -0.02% hit 48% | -0.02% hit 47% |
| VIX points | -0.39 pts hit 34% | -0.32 pts hit 47% | -0.34 pts hit 41% | -0.26 pts hit 37% | -0.35 pts hit 34% |
* fewer than ten events: read it as a short list of cases, not a distribution. VIX is in index points; every other asset is in percent.
Every horizon, per eventmedian, interquartile range, hit rate against the baseline hit rate, and the median against the baseline median
Fed hold 145 events, 2000 to 2026-07-29
| Asset | 1 session | 5 sessions | 21 sessions | 63 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +0.13% -0.32% to +0.86% hit 57% vs 54% vs base +0.07% | +0.30% -0.77% to +1.60% hit 58% vs 58% vs base -0.06% | +2.09% -0.26% to +3.77% hit 73% vs 65% vs base +0.73% | +4.28% -0.59% to +7.51% hit 72% vs 69% vs base +0.78% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | +0.38% -0.35% to +1.16% hit 63% vs 54% vs base +0.27% | +0.70% -1.58% to +2.32% hit 57% vs 57% vs base +0.21% | +2.52% -0.92% to +5.33% hit 70% vs 63% vs base +0.93% | +5.17% -0.05% to +9.82% hit 74% vs 68% vs base +0.94% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | +0.28% -0.67% to +1.28% hit 56% vs 53% vs base +0.18% | +0.49% -1.58% to +2.05% hit 58% vs 55% vs base +0.15% | +2.28% -1.73% to +4.84% hit 65% vs 60% vs base +0.92% | +3.44% -2.14% to +8.67% hit 65% vs 64% vs base +0.26% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) | 0.00% -0.61% to +0.59% hit 50% vs 52% vs base -0.05% | +0.16% -1.04% to +1.53% hit 53% vs 53% vs base +0.04% | +0.54% -1.57% to +2.66% hit 54% vs 53% vs base +0.20% | +1.55% -3.46% to +5.43% hit 61% vs 58% vs base +0.44% |
| Gold (GLD) | +0.15% -0.72% to +0.74% hit 54% vs 53% vs base +0.09% | +0.01% -1.80% to +1.06% hit 50% vs 55% vs base -0.29% | +0.89% -2.25% to +3.88% hit 60% vs 56% vs base +0.26% | +1.56% -3.57% to +7.23% hit 59% vs 62% vs base -0.97% |
| Dollar index | -0.06% -0.39% to +0.26% hit 45% vs 50% vs base -0.06% | +0.03% -0.76% to +0.73% hit 50% vs 50% vs base +0.02% | +0.10% -1.41% to +1.35% hit 52% vs 51% vs base +0.06% | +0.25% -2.57% to +2.20% hit 55% vs 51% vs base +0.20% |
| VIX | -0.39 pts -1.25 pts to +0.17 pts hit 34% vs 46% vs base -0.30 pts | -0.19 pts -1.57 pts to +1.10 pts hit 46% vs 46% vs base -0.04 pts | -0.87 pts -2.84 pts to +1.10 pts hit 32% vs 46% vs base -0.55 pts | -0.41 pts -3.93 pts to +2.39 pts hit 44% vs 43% vs base +0.29 pts |
Fed cut 25bp 15 events, 2001 to 2025-12-10
| Asset | 1 session | 5 sessions | 21 sessions | 63 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -0.12% -1.05% to +0.18% hit 40% vs 54% vs base -0.19% | -0.07% -0.94% to +0.90% hit 47% vs 58% vs base -0.42% | -0.03% -2.46% to +1.45% hit 47% vs 65% vs base -1.39% | +1.31% -7.41% to +3.05% hit 53% vs 69% vs base -2.19% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | -0.04% -1.10% to +0.52% hit 47% vs 54% vs base -0.15% | +0.77% -2.14% to +2.19% hit 53% vs 57% vs base +0.28% | +0.39% -4.60% to +3.06% hit 53% vs 63% vs base -1.21% | -0.42% -9.84% to +4.12% hit 47% vs 68% vs base -4.65% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | -0.35% -0.83% to +0.62% hit 40% vs 53% vs base -0.45% | -0.26% -2.99% to +1.51% hit 40% vs 55% vs base -0.60% | -0.55% -4.83% to +3.84% hit 47% vs 60% vs base -1.91% | -0.60% -7.86% to +4.94% hit 40% vs 64% vs base -3.79% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) | +0.41% -0.93% to +0.92% hit 58% vs 52% vs base +0.36% | -0.27% -1.43% to +0.19% hit 42% vs 53% vs base -0.39% | +0.75% -1.50% to +3.40% hit 67% vs 53% vs base +0.41% | -0.14% -1.19% to +4.74% hit 42% vs 58% vs base -1.26% |
| Gold (GLD) | -0.38% -1.04% to +0.76% hit 45% vs 53% vs base -0.44% | +0.96% -0.80% to +2.12% hit 55% vs 55% vs base +0.66% | +3.77% -0.01% to +7.26% hit 73% vs 56% vs base +3.13% | +14.16% +5.72% to +19.34% hit 91% vs 62% vs base +11.64% |
| Dollar index | -0.04% -0.33% to +0.30% hit 47% vs 50% vs base -0.04% | +0.15% -0.26% to +1.26% hit 60% vs 50% vs base +0.14% | +0.18% -0.21% to +0.88% hit 60% vs 51% vs base +0.14% | +0.18% -2.26% to +0.93% hit 53% vs 51% vs base +0.13% |
| VIX | -0.32 pts -0.76 pts to +1.04 pts hit 47% vs 46% vs base -0.23 pts | -0.45 pts -1.81 pts to +1.45 pts hit 40% vs 46% vs base -0.30 pts | -0.76 pts -2.13 pts to +2.81 pts hit 47% vs 46% vs base -0.44 pts | +0.46 pts -0.65 pts to +4.27 pts hit 67% vs 43% vs base +1.16 pts |
Fed hike 25bp 34 events, 2000 to 2026-09-16
| Asset | 1 session | 5 sessions | 21 sessions | 63 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +0.05% -0.52% to +0.59% hit 53% vs 54% vs base -0.02% | +0.01% -0.89% to +1.20% hit 50% vs 58% vs base -0.35% | +0.43% -1.71% to +2.67% hit 58% vs 65% vs base -0.92% | +2.75% +0.28% to +5.32% hit 76% vs 69% vs base -0.75% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | +0.05% -0.43% to +0.65% hit 53% vs 54% vs base -0.06% | +0.34% -1.35% to +1.59% hit 56% vs 57% vs base -0.15% | +0.74% -2.55% to +4.61% hit 55% vs 63% vs base -0.86% | +4.34% -5.92% to +8.70% hit 58% vs 68% vs base +0.12% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | +0.43% -0.54% to +0.76% hit 59% vs 53% vs base +0.33% | +0.61% -1.69% to +1.52% hit 59% vs 55% vs base +0.27% | +0.76% -2.68% to +2.68% hit 61% vs 60% vs base -0.60% | +2.62% -3.42% to +7.22% hit 65% vs 64% vs base -0.57% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) | +0.29% +0.06% to +0.79% hit 75% vs 52% vs base +0.24% | +0.30% -0.55% to +1.40% hit 53% vs 53% vs base +0.19% | +0.70% -1.47% to +2.73% hit 61% vs 53% vs base +0.35% | +1.45% -1.30% to +3.54% hit 61% vs 58% vs base +0.34% |
| Gold (GLD) | +0.01% -0.59% to +0.90% hit 50% vs 53% vs base -0.05% | +0.23% -1.56% to +1.44% hit 57% vs 55% vs base -0.07% | +2.26% -2.24% to +3.31% hit 63% vs 56% vs base +1.62% | +4.52% +0.32% to +5.63% hit 78% vs 62% vs base +1.99% |
| Dollar index | -0.07% -0.64% to +0.15% hit 41% vs 50% vs base -0.07% | -0.20% -0.67% to +0.96% hit 47% vs 50% vs base -0.21% | +0.38% -1.01% to +1.27% hit 58% vs 51% vs base +0.34% | -0.20% -1.15% to +1.42% hit 45% vs 51% vs base -0.26% |
| VIX | -0.34 pts -0.74 pts to +0.42 pts hit 41% vs 46% vs base -0.24 pts | -0.08 pts -1.31 pts to +0.60 pts hit 47% vs 46% vs base +0.07 pts | -0.20 pts -2.13 pts to +0.90 pts hit 48% vs 46% vs base +0.12 pts | -1.51 pts -2.48 pts to +0.88 pts hit 39% vs 43% vs base -0.81 pts |
CPI release 340 events, 2000 to 2026-09-11
| Asset | 1 session | 5 sessions | 21 sessions | 63 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +0.13% -0.41% to +0.63% hit 57% vs 54% vs base +0.07% | +0.39% -0.91% to +1.36% hit 59% vs 58% vs base +0.03% | +1.35% -1.38% to +3.51% hit 63% vs 65% vs base 0.00% | +3.49% -1.62% to +6.99% hit 70% vs 69% vs base -0.01% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | +0.24% -0.45% to +0.92% hit 58% vs 54% vs base +0.13% | +0.51% -1.30% to +1.95% hit 59% vs 57% vs base +0.02% | +1.46% -2.24% to +4.78% hit 62% vs 63% vs base -0.14% | +4.42% -1.99% to +9.28% hit 68% vs 68% vs base +0.19% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | +0.08% -0.67% to +0.86% hit 52% vs 53% vs base -0.02% | +0.31% -1.40% to +2.04% hit 56% vs 55% vs base -0.03% | +1.37% -2.27% to +4.52% hit 61% vs 60% vs base +0.01% | +2.92% -3.35% to +8.65% hit 63% vs 64% vs base -0.27% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) | +0.11% -0.51% to +0.66% hit 54% vs 52% vs base +0.06% | +0.23% -0.87% to +1.25% hit 57% vs 53% vs base +0.11% | +0.27% -1.95% to +2.53% hit 53% vs 53% vs base -0.07% | +1.25% -3.38% to +5.07% hit 61% vs 58% vs base +0.13% |
| Gold (GLD) | +0.17% -0.47% to +0.70% hit 54% vs 53% vs base +0.11% | +0.26% -1.14% to +1.78% hit 55% vs 55% vs base -0.04% | +0.53% -2.13% to +3.86% hit 57% vs 56% vs base -0.11% | +2.76% -3.11% to +8.05% hit 62% vs 62% vs base +0.23% |
| Dollar index | -0.02% -0.35% to +0.30% hit 48% vs 50% vs base -0.02% | +0.03% -0.69% to +0.67% hit 51% vs 50% vs base +0.01% | +0.06% -1.61% to +1.49% hit 51% vs 51% vs base +0.02% | +0.08% -2.53% to +2.46% hit 51% vs 51% vs base +0.02% |
| VIX | -0.26 pts -0.95 pts to +0.30 pts hit 37% vs 46% vs base -0.17 pts | -0.51 pts -1.86 pts to +0.89 pts hit 39% vs 46% vs base -0.36 pts | -0.52 pts -2.95 pts to +1.85 pts hit 44% vs 46% vs base -0.20 pts | -0.78 pts -3.81 pts to +3.04 pts hit 43% vs 43% vs base -0.07 pts |
Payrolls (NFP) 329 events, 2000 to 2026-10-02
| Asset | 1 session | 5 sessions | 21 sessions | 63 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +0.14% -0.55% to +0.68% hit 56% vs 54% vs base +0.07% | +0.36% -1.29% to +1.39% hit 58% vs 58% vs base +0.01% | +1.40% -1.51% to +3.53% hit 64% vs 65% vs base +0.04% | +3.62% -1.36% to +7.05% hit 70% vs 69% vs base +0.12% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | +0.12% -0.82% to +0.98% hit 54% vs 54% vs base +0.01% | +0.34% -1.52% to +2.03% hit 55% vs 57% vs base -0.15% | +1.56% -2.41% to +5.08% hit 61% vs 63% vs base -0.04% | +4.25% -3.33% to +9.55% hit 67% vs 68% vs base +0.03% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | +0.19% -0.76% to +0.91% hit 55% vs 53% vs base +0.09% | +0.17% -2.12% to +1.89% hit 53% vs 55% vs base -0.17% | +1.47% -2.76% to +4.81% hit 61% vs 60% vs base +0.11% | +3.10% -2.31% to +8.48% hit 63% vs 64% vs base -0.09% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) | -0.06% -0.83% to +0.60% hit 48% vs 52% vs base -0.10% | +0.01% -1.49% to +1.19% hit 50% vs 53% vs base -0.10% | +0.30% -2.31% to +2.50% hit 53% vs 53% vs base -0.04% | +0.89% -3.41% to +5.37% hit 58% vs 58% vs base -0.23% |
| Gold (GLD) | +0.07% -0.60% to +0.74% hit 56% vs 53% vs base +0.01% | +0.54% -0.98% to +1.87% hit 60% vs 55% vs base +0.24% | +0.76% -2.57% to +4.37% hit 58% vs 56% vs base +0.12% | +2.76% -3.21% to +7.88% hit 62% vs 62% vs base +0.24% |
| Dollar index | -0.02% -0.36% to +0.37% hit 47% vs 50% vs base -0.02% | +0.02% -0.67% to +0.64% hit 50% vs 50% vs base +0.01% | -0.03% -1.37% to +1.38% hit 49% vs 51% vs base -0.08% | -0.09% -2.46% to +2.49% hit 48% vs 51% vs base -0.15% |
| VIX | -0.35 pts -0.96 pts to +0.31 pts hit 34% vs 46% vs base -0.26 pts | -0.22 pts -1.50 pts to +1.06 pts hit 44% vs 46% vs base -0.07 pts | -0.30 pts -2.50 pts to +1.78 pts hit 44% vs 46% vs base +0.02 pts | -0.65 pts -3.79 pts to +2.67 pts hit 44% vs 43% vs base +0.05 pts |
The full event study with a free account
Signed-in readers get every event behind each cell (date, surprise, VIX at the event and the move at every horizon), the hawkish, in-line and dovish Fed buckets, the other twelve assets including continuous futures, the 50bp moves, the cumulative path from 5 sessions before to 30 after, and CSV export.
Method and limits
- Every number is a historical distribution of what already happened, not a forecast. The macro context of each event differs.
- A move runs from the close of the last session before the event to the close of the horizon session, so the 1-session move spans the announcement.
- Horizons are trading sessions: 1, 5, 21 and 63.
- The baseline is the same asset and horizon over every stored session with no condition attached; "vs base" is the event median minus that baseline median.
- Coverage: ETF closes from 2000-01-03, continuous futures from 2016-07-19. Fed surprise buckets (signed-in) use the 2-year Treasury yield change across the decision as the proxy.
Cite this data
Kresmion measures each asset's move from the last close before every Fed decision, CPI release and payroll release to the close 1, 5, 21 and 63 trading sessions later, then reports the median, quartiles and hit rate of those moves beside the same statistics over every session of the asset's history.
Upstream: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar, FRED Fed funds target range, FRED release dates (CPI, Employment Situation), FRED 2-year Treasury yield (DGS2)
Kresmion, "Kresmion Macro Event Impact", data as of 2026-10-02, https://kresmion.com/tools/macro-event-impact. Upstream data: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar; FRED Fed funds target range; FRED release dates (CPI, Employment Situation); FRED 2-year Treasury yield (DGS2).
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/tools/macro-event-impact">Kresmion Macro Event Impact (Kresmion)</a>