Market reaction to US non-farm payrolls (NFP) releases
How this is computed
A move runs from the close of the last session before the event to the close 1, 5, 21 and 63 trading sessions later. The method and its limits are under Method and limits below and on the study page.
Across 330 US non-farm payrolls (NFP) releases from January 7, 2000 to the most recent on November 6, 2026, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had a median move of +0.14% over the release session and closed higher on 56% of them, against a median of +0.07% and 54% higher over every session in the study, event or not.
Kresmion measures each asset's move from the last close before every payrolls release to the close 1, 5, 21 and 63 trading sessions later, then reports the median, mean, quartiles and share of higher closes of those moves beside the same statistics over every session of the asset's history.
Over the release session1 trading session, the event inside it
| Asset | Median | Mean | Higher | Events | Middle half | Any session |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) percent | +0.14% | +0.04% | 56% | 330 | -0.54% to +0.68% | +0.07%, higher 54% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) percent | +0.12% | +0.03% | 55% | 330 | -0.82% to +0.99% | +0.11%, higher 54% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) percent | +0.21% | +0.04% | 55% | 325 | -0.76% to +0.93% | +0.10%, higher 53% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) percent | -0.05% | -0.09% | 48% | 299 | -0.83% to +0.60% | +0.05%, higher 52% |
| Gold (GLD) percent | +0.07% | +0.04% | 55% | 269 | -0.60% to +0.74% | +0.06%, higher 53% |
| Dollar index percent | -0.02% | +0.01% | 47% | 330 | -0.35% to +0.37% | 0.00%, higher 50% |
| VIX index points | -0.35 pts | -0.20 pts | 34% | 330 | -0.97 pts to +0.31 pts | -0.09 pts, higher 46% |
5 sessions later5 trading sessions
| Asset | Median | Mean | Higher | Events | Middle half | Any session |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) percent | +0.36% | 0.00% | 58% | 329 | -1.29% to +1.39% | +0.35%, higher 58% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) percent | +0.34% | +0.08% | 55% | 329 | -1.52% to +2.03% | +0.49%, higher 57% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) percent | +0.17% | -0.08% | 53% | 324 | -2.12% to +1.89% | +0.34%, higher 55% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) percent | +0.01% | -0.12% | 50% | 298 | -1.49% to +1.19% | +0.12%, higher 53% |
| Gold (GLD) percent | +0.54% | +0.48% | 60% | 268 | -0.98% to +1.87% | +0.29%, higher 55% |
| Dollar index percent | +0.02% | -0.01% | 50% | 329 | -0.67% to +0.64% | +0.01%, higher 50% |
| VIX index points | -0.22 pts | +0.22 pts | 44% | 329 | -1.50 pts to +1.06 pts | -0.14 pts, higher 47% |
21 sessions later21 trading sessions
| Asset | Median | Mean | Higher | Events | Middle half | Any session |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) percent | +1.37% | +0.75% | 64% | 329 | -1.48% to +3.52% | +1.35%, higher 65% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) percent | +1.54% | +0.91% | 61% | 329 | -2.52% to +5.08% | +1.58%, higher 62% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) percent | +1.45% | +0.88% | 61% | 324 | -2.76% to +4.81% | +1.33%, higher 60% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) percent | +0.31% | +0.27% | 53% | 298 | -2.30% to +2.54% | +0.35%, higher 53% |
| Gold (GLD) percent | +0.73% | +0.87% | 58% | 268 | -2.59% to +4.37% | +0.62%, higher 56% |
| Dollar index percent | -0.04% | 0.00% | 49% | 329 | -1.35% to +1.37% | +0.05%, higher 51% |
| VIX index points | -0.30 pts | +0.14 pts | 44% | 329 | -2.50 pts to +1.86 pts | -0.32 pts, higher 46% |
63 sessions later63 trading sessions
| Asset | Median | Mean | Higher | Events | Middle half | Any session |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) percent | +3.60% | +2.32% | 69% | 327 | -1.36% to +7.05% | +3.48%, higher 69% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) percent | +4.25% | +2.70% | 67% | 327 | -3.33% to +9.52% | +4.21%, higher 68% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) percent | +3.07% | +2.43% | 62% | 322 | -2.33% to +8.44% | +3.15%, higher 64% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) percent | +0.89% | +0.92% | 57% | 296 | -3.39% to +5.37% | +1.10%, higher 58% |
| Gold (GLD) percent | +2.76% | +2.83% | 61% | 266 | -3.26% to +7.85% | +2.51%, higher 62% |
| Dollar index percent | -0.08% | +0.01% | 49% | 327 | -2.46% to +2.47% | +0.07%, higher 51% |
| VIX index points | -0.65 pts | +0.07 pts | 44% | 327 | -3.79 pts to +2.69 pts | -0.69 pts, higher 43% |
Higher is the share of events after which the asset closed higher at that horizon. * fewer than ten events: read it as a short list of cases, not a distribution. VIX is in index points; every other asset is in percent. On wide screens, the middle half is the first to the third quartile of the moves, and any session is the same asset and horizon over every stored session with no event condition.
Every event behind these numbers with a free account
Method and limits
- Every number is a historical distribution of what already happened, not a forecast. The macro context of each event differs.
- A move runs from the close of the last session before the event to the close of the horizon session, so the 1-session move spans the announcement.
- Horizons are trading sessions: 1, 5, 21 and 63. An event too recent for a horizon is not counted at that horizon, and an asset counts only the events after its first stored close, which is why the event counts differ by asset and horizon.
- The event dates come from FRED release dates (CPI, Employment Situation).
- The full study, with every event type in one matrix: Macro event impact; its method: method and limits.
Cite this data
Kresmion measures each asset's move from the last close before every payrolls release to the close 1, 5, 21 and 63 trading sessions later, then reports the median, mean, quartiles and share of higher closes of those moves beside the same statistics over every session of the asset's history.
Upstream: FRED release dates (CPI, Employment Situation)
Kresmion, "Market reaction to US non-farm payrolls (NFP) releases, Kresmion Macro Event Impact", data as of 2026-11-06, https://kresmion.com/tools/macro-event-impact/nfp. Upstream data: FRED release dates (CPI, Employment Situation).
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/tools/macro-event-impact/nfp">Market reaction to US non-farm payrolls (NFP) releases, Kresmion Macro Event Impact (Kresmion)</a>
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