Crypto and prediction markets

This chapter covers two areas. The first is crypto: the signed-in crypto desk (prices and movers, derivatives, spot ETF flows, large on-chain transfers, exchange holdings, DEX activity, events and news) and three public crypto pages (the token unlock calendar, the per-token due-diligence page and the exchange flow tracker). The second is prediction markets: how to read odds, the signed-in prediction-markets desk with its tools, and the public odds pages. Crypto pages sit under Markets › Crypto in the desktop menu. The prediction-markets desk sits under Intelligence › Community Intel › Prediction Markets, and the public odds pages are under Odds in the public site menu.

The pages most readers start with, and the question each answers:

• Crypto overview: what moved in crypto today, and how derivatives, ETF flows and large transfers look.
• Whale transfers: which large on-chain transfers just moved coins into or out of exchanges.
• Crypto ETF flows: how much money went into or out of US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, by issuer.
• Token DD: which tokens have large unlocks coming, and how concentrated their holders are.
• Prediction markets hub: what prediction markets are pricing now, what moved and what closes soon.
• Public odds: the same live odds for anyone, with no account.

Before reading any odds page, read How to read prediction markets. It explains YES prices, points, volume, liquidity, resolution and calibration once, for every page in this chapter.

Signed-in crypto desk

The signed-in crypto desk is a set of one-screen terminal pages under Markets › Crypto in the desktop menu: Overview, Prediction markets, Events, Whales, Exchanges, Exchange Flow, Token DD, Derivatives, ETF Flows, News and DEX (with Solana and Ethereum under it). The menu's ★ Most used block also pins Crypto markets (the overview) and ETF flows, and Intelligence › ★ Most used › Whale activity opens the whale page. Typing /crypto on its own takes you to the overview. Exchange Flow and Token DD are public pages and are covered in Exchange flow and Token DD.

Most pages here share one layout and a few rules, explained once:

• Title strip. The page title, a context line (what is covered and when the data is from) and the page's own controls on the right (a coin or asset switch, filters, a Refresh button).
• KPI strip. A row of headline figures. Each tile names its window ("24h", "7d", "latest", "session") and its as-of time; hover a tile for exactly what it measures. On a narrow window the lowest-priority tiles drop out first. A tile with an arrow or underline is a link.
• Panels. Each panel has a title bar with a short meta line (source, window, as-of). A link at the right of the bar, written as a word and an arrow (for example Derivatives →), opens the deeper page. Hover a panel title for a one-line description where one exists.
• Column headers. Hover a column header for what the number is and the moment it describes.
• Paging, not scrolling. A long list shows a pager in the panel bar ("1-12 of 40" with arrows). A list cut to fit ends with a "+N more" line that opens the full page.
• Colour. Green and red appear only on a signed change (a price move, a funding sign, a net creation or redemption). Shares, balances, directions of transfer and buy shares stay in neutral ink. The sign is always printed beside the colour, and tiny moves inside a small dead band read as flat.
• "--" means the source gave no value. It is never a zero. Where nothing was stored for a window, the panel says so in words ("No data is not a reading of $0").
• Sources. The last line of each page is a Sources link to /settings/data-sources, opened at the crypto family (the prediction markets board opens the markets family). Vendor credits the source requires (CoinGecko, alternative.me, Jupiter) stay visible on the page.
• Signed out. Every page in this group needs a free account. A signed-out visitor sees a sign-in card; for the whale page the card also offers the public Exchange flow page.

Events, News and the older page headers show a row of section pills (Overview, Markets, Derivatives, ETF flows, Whales, Exchanges, DEX, News, plus the current page). They jump between the crypto pages; Markets opens the overview at its Markets panel.

Crypto overview

One screen that answers "what moved in crypto today, and what do derivatives, ETF flows and large transfers look like": prices and movers, a market heatmap, liquidations, funding by venue, open interest, US spot ETF flows and the latest large on-chain transfers.

• Title strip. "Crypto markets", with a context line such as "N tracked coins · prices time (UTC time)". Refresh re-reads prices, liquidations, transfers and funding at once; it reads "Updating" while it works. The page also refreshes itself every minute while the tab is visible.
• KPI strip.
  • Market cap: the whole crypto market cap as CoinGecko lists it, with its 24h change. If that figure is unavailable the tile becomes Tracked cap, the sum of the coins in the Markets table only ("N coins only"), which is smaller than the whole market.
  • Bitcoin: BTC's price and 24h change, the same row as the Markets table. Hover for the 24h low and high (Binance spot, rolling 24 hours). Click to open the BTC chart.
  • BTC dominance: Bitcoin's share of the whole market cap, with Ethereum's share under it ("ETH n%") and a meter out of 100. If CoinGecko's figure is missing the tile becomes BTC share, Bitcoin's share of the tracked coins only, which reads higher than the whole-market figure.
  • Fear & Greed: the daily Crypto Fear & Greed index (0 to 100) from alternative.me, with its classification and 7-day change where the strip is wide, and a meter. The small "alternative.me" link opens the index's own page.
  • BTC ETF flow: net creations into US spot Bitcoin ETFs on the latest session with a reported value. It reads BTC ETF subtotal when not every fund reported that day. The sub-line says "net", "N newer pending" (later sessions not reported yet) or "withheld (licence)". A pending session is never shown as zero. Click to open Crypto ETF flows.
  • Liquidations: realised liquidations over 24 hours on the covered venue(s) only, named on the tile, with the long share. It is not a whole-market total. "none stored" means no event was stored in the window.
  • BTC funding: the mean of the latest settled BTC perpetual funding across Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid, annualised. Positive means longs pay shorts. Click to open Crypto derivatives.
  • Volume 24h: 24-hour volume across every venue CoinGecko tracks.
• Top movers. The five largest 24h gainers beside the five largest decliners among the tracked coins, with price and 24h change. "No coin is up on 24h" (or down) appears when one side is empty.
• Market heatmap. One tile per tracked coin, stablecoins left out. Tile area is market cap (CoinGecko); tint is the change over the window you pick with the 1h / 24h / 7d switch (Binance spot; 1h uses the last hourly close). The legend on the right shows the scale: the tint saturates at ±2% for 1h, ±8% for 24h and ±20% for 7d, and moves within ±0.1% read as flat. Hover a tile for price, cap and all three changes. The meta line counts coins without a cap that are not drawn.
• Markets. Every tracked coin, ranked by market cap. Columns: # (rank by cap), Coin (symbol and name), Price, 1h (from Binance hourly candles), 24h, 7d, Mkt cap (CoinGecko), Vol 24h (Binance spot USDT pair only; "no pair" when the coin has no Binance pair), Funding (Binance perpetual funding, annualised, latest settled; + means longs pay shorts), 24h range (a track from the 24h low to the 24h high with a dot at the current price) and 7d trend (a sparkline of hourly closes). Hover the coin for its rank, 24h low and high, or a note that a coin without a Binance pair has no volume, 1h or trend. Columns drop out as the panel narrows.
• Liquidations 24h. A bar per hour for the last 24 hours (hours in UTC). Bars above the centre line are shorts liquidated; bars below are longs. This is a side, not a gain or loss, so the bars are neutral ink. The stat line gives the 24h total, the last hour and the long share; hover an hour to read its longs and shorts instead. Under the chart, the three largest single liquidations: coin, side, price and how long ago. The meta line names the covered venues and how many symbols they cover.
• Funding by venue. A heat grid: one row per perpetual (ordered by market cap), one column per venue (Binance, Bybit, OKX, Hyperliquid). Each cell is the latest settled funding rate annualised in % a year; positive means longs pay shorts, negative shorts pay longs. Venues settle every 1 to 8 hours and each rate is scaled by its venue's interval. The tint saturates at ±25% a year; values within ±1% read as flat. The meta line shows the next settlement time. A "+N perps" line opens the derivatives page.
• Open interest. BTC, ETH and SOL perpetuals on Binance. Columns: Perp, OI (open interest in USD; hover for the total across venues), 7d (change in open interest over 7 days), 7d trend (hourly sparkline), Long % (share of Binance top accounts net long), Basis (perpetual mark against spot) and All venues (open interest summed across venues). If the source has not answered within 15 seconds the panel says so with a Retry.
• Spot ETF net flows. Two columns, Bitcoin and Ethereum. Each shows total assets under management (AUM), the latest reported session's net flow (signed, green for net creations, red for net redemptions), its date and whether it covers "all funds" or only some ("9/12 funds"), any newer pending sessions, and a 5-session sum ("5 sess. part" when one of the five is a subtotal). Under it, a strip of the last 20 sessions: a solid bar is a complete total, a hollow bar is a partial subtotal, a flat grey mark is a session with nothing reported. Hover a bar for its date, value and coverage. When daily flows are withheld under the data licence the panel says "Daily flows withheld (licence), N sessions" with an Issuer flows → link.
• Large on-chain transfers. The newest large transfers touching known exchange wallets, with same-owner moves excluded. The stat line gives 24h volume and the largest transfer. Each row: how long ago, the asset, a short direction (Inflow to an exchange, Outflow from one, Exch. to exch., Wallet for wallet to wallet), the route ("from label to to label", "Unlabelled wallet" when unknown) and the USD value. This panel also leaves out Bitcoin exchange outflows, whose attribution is the least complete. Whale transfers explains how to read these rows.

• Refresh re-reads the live panels. Nothing else needs a click to update.
• The 1h / 24h / 7d switch on the heatmap changes the tint window; it does not change tile sizes.
• The Rank / 24h / 7d switch on the Markets panel sorts by market cap, by 24h change or by 7d change (largest first). The pager pages the table.
• Hover any hour on the liquidations chart, any bar on an ETF strip or any heatmap tile to read its figures.
• Settings on this page (sort, heatmap window) are not remembered between visits.

The Liquidations KPI and the Liquidations 24h panel have no outbound link: the derivatives page shows funding, open interest and options, not liquidations, so the overview is the one place to read the liquidation bars across coins (a single coin's liquidations are on its Token DD page). To compare one coin against the rest, sort Markets by 24h and look at where it sits; to see a coin's longer history, click its row for the chart.

Crypto prediction markets

The crypto slice of the prediction-market board: which crypto questions are trading on Polymarket, where the crowd prices them, what repriced in the last day and what closes next. It is the same board as the signed-in prediction markets hub, opened on crypto markets and grouped by coin, without the hub's cross-venue panels.

• Title strip. "Crypto prediction markets", with "N open Polymarket markets tagged crypto · crowd prices, not a forecast". A price on this page is the last traded price of a YES share, which you can read as the crowd's implied chance of YES; it is never our forecast. Markets past their scheduled close and resolved markets are hidden.
• KPI strip (every figure from the markets in view, after your filters):
  • Open markets: how many markets are in view ("of N" when a filter is on). The top 60 by lifetime volume are loaded.
  • Volume: their lifetime traded volume in USD. Volume 24h: what traded in the last 24 hours.
  • Largest 24h move: the biggest change in a YES price in percentage points (pp) over 24 hours, with the question; click it to open that market. Only moves of 3 pp or more count; "none of 3 pp+ in top 60" means nothing moved that much.
  • Closing in 30d: how many markets are scheduled to close within 30 days, and how long until the next. A market can settle earlier or later than its scheduled close.
  • Kalshi match, in view: how many of the markets in view we matched to the same question on Kalshi.
• What moved. Markets whose YES price moved 3 pp or more in 24 hours, largest first: question, YES and 24h change in pp (green up, red down, moves under 0.5 pp read as flat). When nothing in view moved, a link offers the count of movers across all live markets.
• Open markets. Every market in view. Columns: Question (with a colour swatch for its coin), YES (last traded YES price), 24h and 7d change in pp, 7d path (a sparkline of our snapshots of the YES price), Volume (lifetime, USD), Vol 24h, Liquidity (resting order-book liquidity, USD), Closes (scheduled close; hover for the time left) and Kalshi (the Kalshi YES price of the same question, "listed" when matched without a price; the column appears only when at least one market in view is matched). Wide columns drop out on smaller screens.
• Crowd prices and volume. The main chart. Each lane is a coin (the first coin we tag on the market; coins with fewer than three markets fold into Other coins). Each dot is a market placed at its YES price from 0% to 100%, sized by its volume. The lane label carries the lane's lifetime volume. Read it as "where is the money and where is it priced": a lane crowded near 0% or 100% holds questions the crowd treats as nearly settled.
• When they resolve. A stat line counts markets in view by time to scheduled close (7d, 30d, 3 mo, later, no date). A bar per day shows how many close each day over the next 7 or 30 days, with a "Next:" tag naming the next close. Beside it, the next markets to close with their date and YES price.

• Search ("Search markets: fed, bitcoin…") searches every market in the chosen scope once you type 3 characters, not only the 60 loaded. The panels then read "Search results".
• Crypto / All / Macro / Equities switches what is loaded. Crypto groups the lanes by coin; the other loads group them by topic.
• Any / <10% / 35-65% / >90% keeps only markets whose YES price is in that band (long shots, toss-ups, near-certainties).
• Click a lane label on the price chart to show only that coin across the whole page; click it again to show all. Active filters appear in the context line with a × that clears them.
• Volume / 24h move / Close sorts the Open markets table.
• 7d / 30d on When they resolve changes the window (it opens on the shortest window that holds a close). Click a day bar to list only that day's closes; click again to clear.
• Filters and sort are not remembered between visits.

To see every topic at once with the cross-venue and calibration panels, open the full prediction markets hub. For a public view without signing in, use /odds.

Crypto events

The list of threshold events our detector found on crypto data (funding, ETF flows, open interest and more): what crossed a fixed line, by how much, and when.

• Header. "Crypto market events", "Threshold events on crypto data (funding, ETF flows, open interest and more) · detector runs every 15 min", and the crypto section pills.
• Latest events

  Up to 20 active events, grouped by the UTC day they were detected, newest first. Each row shows:

  • the detection time;
  • a badge with the asset and the kind of event (for example "BTC · Funding rate", "ETH · ETF flow", "Open interest");
  • the headline, followed by a neutral severity badge (Critical, High, Medium or Low, the detector's own ladder);
  • the trigger line, "Value x · threshold y": the figure that was read and the line it crossed;
  • the body text, cut at about 200 characters with Show more / Show less;
  • the source the detector read, and "AI-reviewed" when a model wrote the text from the figures. The panel note counts the active events. An event is not coloured by direction: it describes what happened, not what happens next.
• In this list

  Counts of the listed events By severity and By kind.

• What an event is. A short note: an event fires when a tracked figure crosses a fixed threshold; it describes what happened; text marked AI-reviewed was written by a model from the figures.

• Refresh re-reads the list (it reads "Refreshing…" while it works). The list also refreshes every 15 minutes on its own.
• Show more expands a long body.

Event rows are not links. To check a funding or open-interest event, open Crypto derivatives; for an ETF-flow event, Crypto ETF flows.

"No active crypto events" is a normal state on a quiet day. For events across every market, use the event feed under Intelligence › Events › All events.

Whale transfers

The tape of large on-chain transfers (over $100K) that touch known exchange wallets on Ethereum, Bitcoin and Solana: who sent what to whom, in which direction relative to exchanges, and how sure we are of the wallet labels. It also holds your own wallet watches.

Each row is one on-chain transaction our tracker picked up. Four things decide what it means:

1. The two sides. From and To carry a wallet label when we know the owner ("Binance", "Coinbase", "OKX" and so on) or read "unlabelled" when we do not. Hover a side for the full address. Labels come from a registry of known exchange wallets: addresses each exchange published in its own proof-of-reserves, or a public attribution. A label names who controls the wallet, not who the customer behind the transfer is.

2. The direction, a fixed rule on the labels:

   • Exchange inflow: an unlabelled or non-exchange wallet sent to a known exchange wallet. Coins moved onto an exchange.
   • Exchange outflow: a known exchange wallet sent to a wallet outside it. Coins left the exchange. Outflow attribution is partial on every venue (exchanges pay out from many wallets we cannot all see), so outflow totals are a floor, not a market total.
   • Exchange to exchange: both sides are exchange wallets of different exchanges.
   • Wallet to wallet: a large transfer between two wallets that is neither into nor out of a known exchange wallet. The direction is a description of where coins went. It is not a reading of intent: a deposit to an exchange can be collateral, a transfer between a customer's own accounts, or a sale; the data cannot tell these apart.

3. The attribution tag (the right-hand column) says how strong the ownership claim is:

   • Internal: the same owner is on both sides, established on attributed-or-better wallet evidence (for example an exchange moving coins between its own hot and cold wallets). These rows are shown on the tape but excluded from every flow total we publish.
   • Same entity?: both sides resolve to the same entity, but only on a label inferred from sweep behaviour. The row is counted as flow and flagged, because that inference cannot tell an exchange-owned deposit address from a third party who only ever sends to that exchange.
   • Heuristic: the weakest label on the row is inferred from sweep behaviour, not confirmed by an issuer or a third-party attribution.
   • No tag: both labels are confirmed (or the unlabelled side is simply unknown).
4. The size. Amount is the number of coins moved; USD is the value at transfer time, so a USD figure does not change when the price moves afterwards.

Our tracker samples the chains around the wallets in its registry. It is not a census of every large transfer, and coverage differs by exchange and chain: an exchange or chain with few known wallets shows fewer transfers, which is not the same as fewer transfers happening.

• Title strip. "Whale transfers", "On-chain transfers over $100K touching known exchange wallets · ETH, BTC, SOL", and four filters on the right.
• KPI strip (from a summary refreshed about every 10 minutes; every 24h window ends at the computation time):
  • Volume 24h: USD value of the transfers in the window, with the transfer count. Same-owner moves are excluded.
  • To exchanges: transfers into known exchange wallets, USD.
  • From exchanges: transfers out of known exchange wallets, USD, marked "attribution partial": a floor, not a market total. Both are magnitudes in neutral ink.
  • Largest transfer, 30d: the single largest transfer in the last 30 days (a 30-day figure, labelled as one).
  • Summary computed: when the summary behind these tiles was computed (UTC). The tape below is read live, so it can show newer rows than the tiles count.
• Transfers. The latest 100 matching transfers. In time order the rows are grouped under a UTC day heading and the UTC column shows HH:MM; in USD order the column carries the full date. Columns: UTC, Chain (ETH, BTC, SOL), From, To, Amount (coins), USD (with the asset), Direction and Attribution. Hover an Internal row for why it is excluded from totals. The meta line reads "latest N" ("N matching" with a filter on) and the newest transfer's time.
• Your wallet watches. Up to 5 addresses you watch ("N of 5 · ETH, SOL, BTC"). Each line: chain, shortened address (hover for the full one), your label, your alert threshold and a Remove button. Transfers at or above your threshold appear in Watch events and as in-app notifications, with counterparty labels where we can attribute them.
• Watch events. What your watched addresses did, newest first, in UTC: date and time, chain, "address received" or "sent", the amount and asset, the counterparty label when known (hover for its confidence tier), and the USD value. "No events yet" until a watched address moves funds.

• Chain (All, ETH, BTC, SOL), Direction (All, Inflow, Outflow, Wallet to wallet), Exchange (All, Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Bybit, Crypto.com) and Asset (All, BTC, ETH, SOL, USDT, USDC) filter the tape. They combine; the KPI tiles do not change with them.
• Time / USD sorts the tape by newest or by largest. The pager pages it.
• Add a watch: pick the chain (ETH, SOL or BTC), paste the address, add an optional label, set the alert threshold in USD (at least $10,000, in steps of $10,000; $100,000 by default) and press Watch. An error (for example an invalid address) shows under the form. When all 5 slots are in use the form is replaced by a note: remove one to add another.
• Remove deletes a watch at once.
• The tape and your watches refresh every minute. Filters are not remembered; your watches are saved to your account.

Transfer rows are not links; hover a From or To cell to copy the address from the tooltip.

To find the largest moves of the day, set Sort to USD. To isolate coins moving onto one exchange, set Direction to Inflow and Exchange to that venue. For net flows per exchange over time, use Exchange flow; for balances, Exchange holdings.

Exchange holdings

How much the known wallets of each exchange hold on chain, in what assets, and how that changed: a view of tracked exchange balances on Ethereum, Bitcoin and Solana.

Every figure here is the balance of the wallets in our registry, not an exchange's full reserves: exchanges hold more than their published addresses, and coverage differs by exchange and chain.

• Title strip. "Exchange holdings", "On-chain balances of known exchange wallets · ETH, BTC, SOL chains · refreshed every 6h · latest time". Holdings are slow to load; if your browser has an earlier copy it paints first and the line says "your last loaded copy, refreshing" (or "the refresh failed").
• KPI strip.
  • Total tracked: the sum of every tracked wallet balance, USD.
  • Net flow 24h: whale-size transfers into the tracked exchange wallets minus transfers out, last 24 hours, valued at transfer time, with "in x · out y" under it. Price moves do not enter it. Because outflow attribution is partial on every venue, it is not a market net flow and is shown in neutral ink.
  • Stablecoin share: USDT + USDC + DAI as a share of the tracked balances, with a meter and the change against 7 days ago in percentage points. "no 7d change" when only the level is available.
  • BTC share: BTC as a share of the tracked balances, with the change against yesterday in percentage points.
  • Largest holder: the exchange with the largest tracked balance and its share.
  • Exchanges: how many exchanges have a tracked balance.
• By exchange. One row per exchange, largest first: Exchange, Tracked (balance, USD), Share (of every tracked balance), Bal chg 24h (24h change of the tracked balance in USD, price moves included), Bal chg %, Chains and Updated. The balance change includes price moves, so it is not a net flow: it can differ in sign from the Net flow KPI. Only the % change is coloured.
• Holdings mix. A ring of the whole tracked balance, split by Asset or by Exchange (tabs), with the total in the centre. Each asset keeps one colour on the whole page (ring, legend, tables, history line): the five largest assets have a colour, the rest are neutral.
• <Exchange> holdings. The selected exchange (the largest, until you pick one). A By chain line gives the value held on each chain's wallets, every token on that chain ("Ethereum" means every token on the Ethereum wallets, not only ETH). Below it, a ring of the exchange's balance by asset with coin amounts in the legend.
• <Exchange>, 30 days. Daily history of the selected exchange: Total (solid), BTC and Stables (USDT + USDC + DAI, dotted), in USD. It needs at least 3 stored days.
• By asset. Every asset across the tracked exchanges: Held (USD), Share and a bar in the asset's colour.

• Click an exchange row to load its holdings ring and its 30-day history into the two panels; the row stays highlighted.
• Asset / Exchange on Holdings mix switches the split.
• Hover a chart line for its value on a day. The pagers page the tables.
• The page re-reads holdings every 30 minutes and the flow figures every 5 minutes.

A falling balance with a flat Net flow usually reflects a price move in the held assets rather than coins leaving. To see the transfers behind the net flow, open Whale transfers filtered to that exchange.

Crypto derivatives

How BTC, ETH and SOL perpetual futures are positioned: funding (who pays whom), open interest, the long / short account split, the basis, the same perpetual on each venue, and BTC and ETH options on Deribit. It describes positioning; it does not forecast it.

• Title strip. "Crypto derivatives", "COIN perpetual futures · Binance, Bybit, OKX, Hyperliquid · options: Deribit · as of time · refreshes every 5 min", and the BTC / ETH / SOL switch.
• KPI strip.
  • Funding, current: Binance's premium-index funding rate for the next settlement, per 8 hours, with the annualised rate and who pays ("longs pay shorts", "shorts pay longs" or "near zero" within ±0.01%). Positive is green, negative red, as a sign only.
  • Open interest: Binance perpetual open interest in USD, with the coin amount under it.
  • All-venue OI: the stored cross-venue rollup of perpetual open interest, with "rollup of N venues · M of 4 live now" and any listed venue not in it. It has its own time, so it can differ from the per-venue table.
  • OI-weighted funding: funding weighted by each venue's open interest, per 8 hours.
  • Basis: the perpetual mark price against the spot index on Binance.
• Funding history. The settled funding rate per 8 hours on Binance over 24h / 7d / 30d, with a zero line. Binance settles every 8 hours, so 24 hours holds about three prints; with fewer than six prints the line is drawn as held steps with a dot per print. The stat line gives Avg, Low, High and Last settled (with its time). Note the difference: the KPI is the rate for the next settlement, this panel is rates already settled.
• Open interest history. Binance open interest at 1h / 4h / 1d points, with Start, Latest and Change (first to last, %).
• By venue. The perpetual on Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid: Open interest, Funding 8h (latest print), L/S (long / short account ratio) and Mark (perpetual mark price). A venue without a snapshot from the last 30 minutes shows "no venue data", or the venues share one dimmed row ("no read in 30 min") that names them; hover for why. We never show another venue's figures under a venue's name.
• Long / short accounts. Binance's split of accounts long and short as two percentages and a bar, with the ratio. It counts accounts, not position size: a high long share says many accounts are long, not that most money is.
• Options (BTC and ETH only; SOL reads "Not tracked for SOL: Deribit lists options on BTC and ETH only"). The latest Deribit snapshot:
  • ATM implied vol, 30d: at-the-money implied volatility for 30 days.
  • 25d skew, 30d (put - call) and Skew reads: positive means puts are priced richer than calls; the words are "puts richer than calls", "calls richer than puts" or "within 3 vol points".
  • Term, front to 60d+ and Term reads: front-month against 60-day-plus implied vol, read as "contango: longer-dated vol higher", "backwardation: near-term vol higher" or "flat within 1 vol point".
  • Put / call ratio (OI): put open interest over call open interest.
  • Max pain: the strike with the least option-holder payout at expiry.
  • Total options OI: options open interest in USD.

• BTC / ETH / SOL switches every panel to that coin.
• 24h / 7d / 30d sets the funding history window; 1h / 4h / 1d sets the open-interest point spacing.
• Hover a chart for the value at a point and a header for its definition.
• The coin and windows are not remembered between visits.

This page has no outbound links besides Sources. For funding across many perpetuals at once and for liquidations, use Crypto overview.

Read funding and open interest together: rising open interest with rising positive funding describes more leveraged long positioning being added; the page shows the figures, not a call on what follows. For a coin's options outside BTC and ETH there is no data here.

Crypto ETF flows

Daily money in and out of the US spot Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana ETFs: net creations and redemptions per session and per fund, assets under management, each fund's NAV, price, fee and premium, and how each flow figure was obtained.

A fund's daily flow is the change in its published shares outstanding for the session, times its NAV, from the issuers' own data (iShares, Grayscale, Franklin, 21Shares, Bitwise), each under its own share-date convention. Sessions up to 2026-09-18 also come from a third-party flow tally. Not every issuer publishes a share count, so most days cover only some of the funds:

• A day is a total only when every fund on our dated list of US spot ETFs reported.
• Otherwise it is a subtotal, labelled with the number of funds and the share of their AUM it covers ("Subtotal, 9 of 12 funds").
• A day whose authoritative value is unavailable is withheld, never estimated: you see a gap, not a guess.
• SOL flows are derived from changes in AUM and NAV (no published per-fund source) and cover only the SOL funds we track, so every SOL figure is a subtotal.

• Title strip. "Crypto ETF flows", "US spot ASSET ETFs · N funds listed · per-fund flows: issuer data (shares outstanding × NAV); third-party flow history to 2026-09-18 · updated every 4 hours", and the BTC / ETH / SOL switch.
• KPI strip. Green for net creations (money in), red for net redemptions (money out); flows within ±$1M read as flat.
  • Latest session, total (or subtotal 9/12): net flow on the latest session with a reported value, with its coverage line. Hover for the funds that did not report.
  • 7-day total / 7-day subtotal: the sum over the last 7 days ("N sessions reported, not all funds" when a subtotal). If no session in the last 7 days reported, the tile becomes Last N reported sessions with their date span.
  • 30-day / 90-day / 180-day total or subtotal: the sum over the window you pick; "gaps excluded" when some days are missing.
  • <ASSET> ETF AUM: total assets of the tracked funds. Largest fund: its ticker and AUM.
• Scope note. One line under the strip: either "Complete for this window." or "Reported subtotals, not market totals." followed by the scope statement above. When session flows are withheld under the data licence, it reads "Session flows withheld." with the reason and how many sessions.
• Daily net flows. One bar per session over 30D / 90D / 180D: up for net creations, down for net redemptions. A hollow bar is a subtotal (not every fund reported); a dotted gap is withheld. Hover a bar for the date, the value, "net creations" or "net redemptions", the coverage and the funds not reported. When nothing can be drawn the panel says so in a sentence.
• Funds. One row per fund: ETF (ticker; hover for the full name), Issuer, AUM, Share (of the tracked funds' AUM), NAV (per share), Price (market price), P/D (premium or discount to NAV; NAV and price are observed at different times, so a small figure is noise), Fee (expense ratio), Volume (daily, USD), Net flow (latest session) and Flow quality. The stat line above gives the latest session's Total (or Reported subtotal), "N of M funds reported" and total AUM.
• AUM by issuer. Each issuer's share of the tracked AUM with a bar, and its AUM. This is where to read the issuer split of the market.
• Flow quality. What each tag in the Funds table means; tags present today are listed first, the rest dimmed:
  • reported · issuer: shares outstanding × NAV from the issuer's own data.
  • reported · history: as reported by the third-party flow tally (sessions to 2026-09-18).
  • estimated: from a share count the issuer does not publish; not a reported flow.
  • pending: no flow for this session yet; withheld, not estimated.
  • weekend: US ETFs do not settle creations or redemptions on weekends; the true flow is zero.
  • derived · AUM/NAV: estimated from the fund's AUM and NAV change (can absorb price movement; lower confidence).
  • no baseline, source changed, stale AUM, not established: no flow was computed, for the stated reason; a gap, not a zero.
  • low confidence: kept, but implausibly large against the fund's AUM.
  • rejected: the computed flow exceeded the fund's AUM and was withheld.
  • mismatch · under review: the reported flow disagrees with the market-adjusted AUM change on consecutive days. The panel's description notes that reported flows are cross-checked against the AUM identity whenever AUM is updating; the check catches gross errors, not small ones.

• BTC / ETH / SOL switches the whole page.
• 30D / 90D / 180D sets the bar window and the period KPI.
• AUM / Flow / Fee sorts the Funds table (largest AUM, largest latest flow, or lowest fee first).
• Hover a fund's Flow quality tag for its meaning. The pagers page the tables.

Rows are not links on this page.

Before comparing two days, check both are totals: a subtotal day with fewer funds reporting can look smaller only because a large fund is missing. Verify against the fund issuer before relying on any single figure, as the page itself advises. The overview's ETF panel shows the BTC and ETH latest sessions side by side.

Crypto news

The latest crypto headlines from the outlets we read, in one list, tagged by keyword.

• Header. "Crypto news", "third-party headlines from outlets · tagged by keyword", and the crypto section pills.
• Latest headlines. Up to 30 articles about Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, ETFs and crypto, grouped by day, newest first. Each row: the publish time, a keyword tag, the headline, a short summary where the outlet gave one, and the outlet. Headlines are external reports, shown as the outlet published them. The panel note counts the articles. If one outlet failed or has not refreshed in the last hour, a note above the list names it.
• Tags. A tag is a keyword match, not an assessment of the story: ETF if the headline or summary mentions an ETF; Regulation for SEC or regulation; Risk for a hack or exploit; otherwise Market.
• Headlines by tag. How many listed headlines carry each tag.

The list loads on open and refreshes when you return to the tab after five minutes. There are no filters.

The outlets are read every 15 minutes, so a breaking story can take that long to appear.

DEX activity

Decentralised exchange activity at a glance: Solana and Ethereum compared side by side (volume, buy share, liquidity, new pools, events, protocol share), and the top pools by 24h volume on six chain views.

• Title strip. "DEX activity", "Decentralised exchange pools: liquidity, volume and signals, Solana and Ethereum side by side · as of time". The comparison is computed live when the cache is cold and can take several seconds; meanwhile the last copy your browser saw is shown, marked "(earlier snapshot, refreshing)". If it is still loading after 5 seconds a panel says so with a Retry, and it gives up after 25 seconds rather than spinning.
• KPI strip. For each of Solana and Ethereum:
  • <Chain> volume: 24h volume across every pool we track on the chain (not only the pools in the table). Click to open that chain's desk.
  • <Chain> buy share: buys as a share of buy and sell transactions over 24 hours, with a meter. It counts transactions, not dollars, and is a number, not a reading of pressure.
• Top pools by 24h volume. The chosen chain's pools, largest volume first: Pair (base / quote token), DEX, Price (the base token's USD price), Vol 24h, Liquidity, 24h (price change) and Txns 24h. A pool price is that pool's own reserve ratio, so a thin pool can print an absurd price. Rows whose price disagrees with the rest of the list (more than 20% from the median price of the same token, a stablecoin far from $1, or a pool listed under a raw contract address) are dimmed and their price and 24h change read "unreliable"; their volume stays. The stat line counts the pools listed, the unreliable prices and the DEX listed most.
• Solana and Ethereum panels. For each chain over 24 hours on tracked pools: Liquidity, New pools, Buys / sells (transaction counts), Active signals, then Share of 24h volume by DEX protocol.

• ETH / SOL / ARB / Base / BSC / Uni V3 switches the pools table between Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum, Base, BNB Smart Chain and the Uniswap V3 view. The pager pages it.
• The comparison refreshes every 5 minutes. The chain choice is not remembered.

Arbitrum, Base and BSC appear only in the pools table; the deep chain desks exist for Solana and Ethereum.

Solana DEX and Ethereum DEX

One chain's decentralised exchanges in depth: chain and pool volume, liquidity, buy share, the top pairs, what is spiking or newly launched, protocol and category shares, trade cost and pool risk, and a summary with the chain's active DEX events. The Solana desk adds Jupiter's top traded tokens with their organic share.

Both desks share one layout; differences are noted.

• Title strip. "Solana DEX" or "Ethereum DEX", "Pool-level activity, slippage modelling and signals across chain DEXs · as of time · refreshes every 5 min".
• KPI strip.
  • Chain volume: 24h volume of every protocol on the chain, from the DefiLlama aggregator ("all protocols"). When unavailable the tile becomes Pool volume (tracked pools, with the last hour).
  • Tracked pools: 24h volume across the pools we track, with "N% of chain" (hover for the number of protocols on chain).
  • Liquidity: total liquidity of the tracked pools, with new pools in 24h.
  • Buy share: buys / (buys + sells) by transaction count over 24h, with the counts and a meter.
  • Stablecoin volume: 24h volume in stablecoin pools and its share of DEX volume.
  • Meme volume (Solana) or LST volume (Ethereum, liquid staking token pools): 24h volume and share.
  • PumpSwap (Solana only): the 24h volume of PumpSwap, the largest single Solana DEX by volume, with its pair count and share of tracked-pool volume.
• Top pairs by 24h volume. Pair, DEX, Price, Vol 24h, Liquidity, 24h change, Buys and Sells (transaction counts). Prices that the list contradicts are dimmed and read "unreliable", as on DEX activity.
• Hourly volume spikes / Launched in the last 24h (tabs Spikes and New). Spikes: pairs whose last-hour volume is high against their baseline hour, with Vol 1h and Vs base (for example "4.2x"). New: pools among the top pairs created in the last 24 hours, newest first, with Vol 24h and Listed time.
• Jupiter top traded (Solana only). Up to 25 tokens by 24h aggregator volume on Jupiter. The stat line covers every token Jupiter ranked: top volume, the organic share (after Jupiter filters wash and circular trades) and how many are high-organic. Columns: Token with tags (DD when we have a Token DD page; Jupiter's organic score label; the age since its first pool; SUS when the token is unverified on Jupiter and its organic score label is low), Vol 24h, Organic (share of volume; bands: high 10% or more, mid 3 to 10%, low under 3%), Org buy (organic buyers), Net buy (net buyers), Traders, Holders, Top hold (share held by the top holders), Liquidity, Price and 24h. A foot line gives the source, window and as-of, with the Powered by Jupiter credit. When Jupiter is unreachable the panel says so with its note.
• Share of 24h volume / Volume by category (tabs Protocol and Category). Protocol share uses every protocol on chain (DefiLlama) when available, otherwise the tracked pools (the meta line says which); Category splits tracked-pool volume into Meme, Stable, Blue chip, New launch and Other (or, when the source gives no categories, Stable, Meme or LST, and Other). Columns: name, a bar, Share and Vol 24h.
• Trade cost. A stat line with the simulated price impact of a market order of $10K, $100K and $1M (SOL to USDC on Solana via a Jupiter quote, "N routes"; WETH to USDC on Ethereum, marked "est."). Slippage is simulated, not quoted. When the quote source is unreachable the line says so with a Retry. Below it, one of three lists (tabs):
  • Thin: pools whose 24h volume is large against their liquidity: Vol 24h, Liq, Vol/liq (for example "12.0x").
  • Security: pools flagged by GoPlus: Pool (shortened address), Score (risk score out of 100) and Flags.
  • Curve (Ethereum only): Curve pools with TVL, Imbal. (largest deviation of a coin's balance from an even split) and Status (Balanced or Imbalanced, the source's own flag).
• Summary / Active DEX signals / Trending themes, cross-chain (tabs Summary, Signals, Themes).
  • Summary: a short text written by an AI model each hour from the figures at that time, stamped "AI-written time". It is withheld when it was written more than about an hour before the figures on screen, so its numbers would not disagree with the strip.
  • Signals: the active DEX events on this chain, each with a severity chip, the asset and the headline.
  • Themes: trending token themes across every chain (DexScreener), with 24h volume and token count.

• Each panel's tabs switch its list; the pagers page them.
• Hover a column header for its definition and a dimmed row for why its price is unreliable.
• The desk refreshes every 5 minutes. Tabs are not remembered.

A pool with a high Vol/liq on the Thin list trades a lot against little depth, so its price moves on small orders; read it with the Trade cost line. For holder concentration and unlock schedules on a Solana token, open its Token DD page.

Public crypto pages

Three crypto pages are open to everyone, with no account: the token unlock calendar, the per-token due-diligence page, and the exchange flow tracker. Each has two versions at the same address. A signed-out visitor (and every search engine or AI assistant) gets a short public snapshot: a one-sentence answer, a small table, a method note, a "Cite this data" box and a sign-in card. Once you are signed in, the same address opens the full signed-in desk inside the terminal shell; the address bar does not change. You never need to type a different URL.

In the desktop menu all three sit under Markets › Crypto: Token DD (the calendar and token pages) and Exchange Flow. A signed-out visitor who opens the signed-in Whales desk is offered the public exchange flow snapshot as its nearest public page.

Every public snapshot follows the same pattern, so it is explained once here:

• Answer line. A box near the top with one plain sentence that states the key figure, then "As of date" (with "(stale: newer data has not arrived yet)" when the data is older than the page expects), the upstream source links, and a Method and limitations link that jumps to the method note on the same page.
• Method and limitations. A closed disclosure under the title (on the exchange flow page, a section near the bottom) that lists exactly how the numbers are built and what they leave out. Read it before quoting a figure.
• Sign-in card. Describes what the signed-in version adds, with Create an account (to /auth/signup) and Sign in (to /auth/login). Both bring you back to the same page afterwards.
• Cite this data. A box at the bottom with the page title, its permanent address, the as-of date, the upstream sources and the one-line calculation, ready to copy into a note or a citation.
• "not stated" in a cell means the source does not publish that value. It is never a zero.

Token unlock calendar (Token DD)

When is the next scheduled token unlock for each token we track, how large is it, and (signed in) how large is it compared with the trading depth behind the token. An "unlock" here is a dated entry on a project's own published vesting schedule: tokens that become transferable on that date. It is not a transfer and not a sale.

• Title and context line. "Token unlock calendar", with "Next tranches on hand-verified unlock schedules for the N tokens Kresmion tracks · from today". Dates are UTC.
• Method and limitations (closed by default). Tranches are compiled by hand from each project's own published schedule (foundation documentation, governance records, vesting contracts), never from aggregators, and re-verified quarterly. A schedule not re-verified within 120 days is marked stale. The "next tranche" is the first scheduled date on or after today; when several categories unlock that day, their tokens and shares are summed (the share is left out if any of them has none). The page shows no price.
• Answer line. One sentence naming how many tokens are tracked and which token unlocks soonest. Its sources are the published schedules of the soonest tokens. The as-of label adds when the shown schedules were last verified ("schedules last verified between date and date").
• Next tranche per token

  Up to 10 tokens with the soonest next tranche, soonest first. Columns:

  • Token: the symbol (a link) and the token's name.
  • Chain: the network the token lives on, or "not stated".
  • Next tranche: the date of the next scheduled unlock.
  • Tokens: how many tokens unlock that day, as the project publishes it.
  • Share of max supply: those tokens as a percentage of the project's stated maximum supply.
  • Category: who the tokens belong to as the schedule names it (for example team, investors, ecosystem). Several categories are joined with commas.
  • Schedule verified: the day we last checked the schedule against its source.
  • Published source: the website the schedule comes from, linked. If no tracked token has a tranche ahead, the table is replaced by "No tracked token has a tranche on its verified unlock schedule on or after date."
• Also tracked

  Under the table, every other tracked token as a link, so you can open any token's page even if its next unlock is far away.

• Sign-in card ("Full Token DD ledger after sign-in") and Cite this data, as described in the group introduction.

Reading it (signed in: the Token DD board). One screen titled Token DD, with the context line "N curated tokens · N with a tranche still ahead · schedules hand-verified quarterly · dates UTC, today date".

• KPI strip.
  • Tokens tracked: how many tokens are in the curated set, with the number that still have a tranche ahead ("ahead").
  • Next tranche: the soonest unlock date, the token beside it and "in Nd" (or "today"). Click it to open that token's page. Hover for the share of supply.
  • Tranches in 30d: tokens whose next tranche falls within a month.
  • Ranked on liquidity: "N of M", how many tokens have both a price and a liquidity reading and can therefore be ranked (shown only when market data is available).
  • Top-20 readings: how many tokens carry a top-20 holder reading, and whether any is older than 3 days ("N older than" / "all within", 3d).
• Unlock calendar. A 90-day timeline (today, 30d, 60d, 90d). Each token whose next tranche falls inside 90 days gets a pin on the line and a label with its symbol and the days to go. When labels would overlap they step up into extra lanes. Tokens that do not fit on the line are listed under it ("Also inside 90 days (no room on the line): ..."), and tokens further out are listed as "Later than 90 days: SYM (date)". The coloured dot beside each symbol is the token's chain; the legend under the line names each chain colour. The same chain colour is used on every panel of the page. Hover a label for the date, the share of supply and the token count.
• Every token

  The full table, paged (the pager sits in the panel's top bar). With market data, rows are ranked by xLiq, highest first; without it, by soonest tranche. Columns:

  • Token, Chain (colour swatch and name).
  • Next unlock: the date, or "complete" (the schedule has no tranche left) or "no schedule" (we hold no schedule for it). Hover for the verification date.
  • In: days to the next tranche, or "today".
  • Tokens: tokens released at the next tranche.
  • Unlock $: those tokens at the latest price.
  • xLiq: unlock dollars divided by the token's liquidity on decentralised exchanges (DEX). This is the ranking key. A tranche worth 15x the depth standing behind it is a very different event from one worth 0.4x, even if both are the same share of supply.
  • xDEX 24h: unlock dollars divided by the last 24 hours of DEX trading volume. Centralised exchange volume is not in it, so for a token that trades mostly on centralised venues this ratio overstates the unlock's size relative to real turnover.
  • % supply: share of max supply at the next tranche.
  • Price and 24h: the latest price and its 24-hour change (green up, red down, the only red and green on the page). Hover the price for when it was read; "(stale: older than 6 hours)" flags an old reading.
  • Top-20: the share of supply held by the 20 largest token accounts, read from the Solana ledger. Only Solana tokens carry it; "--" means not a Solana token or no successful reading. A greyed value is more than 3 days old (hover: "as of date"). A greyed row has no measured value in any column yet; it stays on the board so the gap is visible. When market data cannot be read, the Unlock $, xLiq, xDEX 24h, Price and 24h columns are not shown at all.
• Next tranche size

  The same tokens as a bar list, with a two-way switch: vs liquidity (xLiq and Unlock $, largest first) or % supply (share of supply and date, largest first). Bars are coloured by chain.

• Top-20 holders. Solana tokens ranked by the share held by their 20 largest token accounts, with the reading date (greyed when older than 3 days) and a bar out of 100%.
• Stated limits. The page's own caveats in plain text, clamped to fit; open it for all of it. It explains xLiq and xDEX 24h, that top-20 accounts include exchange omnibus and vesting contracts (accounts, not people), which tokens have no market data, and which prices are stale.
• Sources line at the bottom, linking to the crypto section of /settings/data-sources.

• Public: the page has no controls. Click a symbol to open its token page.
• Signed in: page the Every token, Next tranche size and Top-20 holders panels with their pagers; switch the size panel between vs liquidity and % supply; hover any column header for what the number measures and its as-of time; hover a row's cells for dates and staleness.

The signed-in board's default order (highest xLiq first) puts the unlocks that are largest relative to on-chain depth at the top. A large share of supply with a small xLiq means plenty of on-chain depth relative to the unlock; the reverse means the unlock is large relative to what trades. For the market backdrop, see the Crypto overview.

Token DD page

For one token: what unlocks next and when, how much of the supply is scheduled to unlock over the coming year, how concentrated the largest holders are and, signed in, the derivatives and volume context around it.

• Title. "SYMBOL token unlocks and holder concentration", with the token's name and chain under it. Breadcrumbs lead back to Token DD.
• Method and limitations. As on the calendar, plus: each row is one category of tokens scheduled on that date; the share is of max supply as the project publishes it; top-account concentration is read once a day from the Solana ledger and counts token accounts, not people (exchange omnibus, vesting and program accounts included); a reading is shown only when a scan succeeded in the last 30 days.
• Answer line. One sentence with the next tranche and, for Solana tokens, the latest top-account reading. Sources are the published schedule pages and, for Solana tokens, the token's mint account on the Solana ledger.
• Next tranches on the verified unlock schedule. Up to 6 upcoming tranches ("N of M upcoming, from date"). Columns Date, Category, Tokens, Share of max supply and Published source. If we hold no schedule: "Kresmion holds no verified unlock schedule for SYMBOL." If the schedule has ended, a sentence says so.
• Largest token accounts on Solana. One row from the latest successful daily scan: Scan date, Top 5 accounts and Top 20 accounts (share of total supply), and Mint (a link to the token on Solana Explorer). A non-Solana token says "Kresmion scans the largest token accounts for Solana tokens only"; a Solana token with no recent scan says when the last attempt was.
• All tracked tokens link, then the sign-in card and Cite this data.

An address that matches no tracked token shows the site's "not found" page.

One screen titled with the chain tag and the symbol. The context line reads "Name · token unlocks, holder concentration and derivatives context", and for a Solana token adds the Jupiter spot time, the Solana block it was read at and a visible Powered by Jupiter credit.

• Title-bar actions. Watch (adds the token to your watchlist) and Token DD (back to the calendar).
• KPI strip.
  • Last price with its 24h change, from the same market snapshot as the crypto overview. For a Solana token the snapshot does not list, the tile reads Price with "Jupiter spot" under it; "not tracked" means no price is stored.
  • Liquidity and Organic score (Solana tokens with a Jupiter reading): DEX liquidity and Jupiter's own organic-activity label for the token.
  • Funding: open-interest-weighted funding across the tracked exchanges, annualised (per-8-hour rate x 3 x 365), with the per-8-hour rate under it. Positive means longs pay shorts.
  • Open interest: total open interest across tracked exchanges.
  • DEX share: the share of spot volume on tracked markets that traded on decentralised exchanges.
  • Liquidations: realised liquidations in the last 24 hours on the covered venues (named in the tile), with the event count. "not covered for this token" means the liquidation feed does not include it; "none recorded" means it is covered and nothing was liquidated. This is not a whole-market total.
• Next unlock. Date and days to go, Amount (tokens), % of max supply ("not published" when the project gives none), Source (site and kind; hover for the address and verification date), Schedule ("verified date", or "re-verification overdue" in warning colour) and Following dates (the next few dates with their shares).
• Release curve, next 12 months. A step line of the running share of max supply scheduled to unlock from today to one year ahead, with ticks at +3, +6 and +9 months. Above it: Unlocked by date (the total), Unlock dates (how many dates and tranches) and Largest single date. The shape tells a single cliff from a steady drip that reach the same total. A tranche without a published share is left out, so the curve is a floor; a note says how many were left out.
• Unlock schedule, next 18 months. Every tranche, paged: Date, Category (a cliff tag marks a cliff unlock), Amount, % supply and Notes (the curator's note; hover a row to read it in full).
• Holder concentration. For Solana tokens: Top 5 accounts, Top 20 accounts, Top-20 trend (a sparkline over the stored days, up to 180), Exchange-labeled in top 20 (how many of the 20 accounts are known exchange wallets) and As of (in warning colour when the reading is old; hover for how many days). A second block, "Jupiter, a different set", shows Jupiter's Holders count and Top holders share. These count a different set of accounts and are never merged with the top-20 series. "Top-account scan not supported for this token (account set too large)" appears for tokens with too many accounts to scan.
• Derivatives and volume. Funding: how many exchanges are tracked, the Funding percentile (where today's funding sits within this token's own settled funding history on Binance, for example "92nd"; hover for the window and interval count) and the Funding history window. Liquidations, last 24h: Long positions and Short positions liquidated, in dollars (words, not colours). DEX / CEX volume: the latest DEX and centralised exchange volumes and the range of the DEX share over the stored window.
• Event history. The latest 15 detector events for the token, paged: date, a severity chip, the event type and the headline (hover for the full text). "No events recorded for SYMBOL." otherwise.
• What is tracked for this token? For a token with no schedule and no holder reading (Bitcoin, Ethereum and most large tokens), the four unlock and holder panels are replaced by one coverage panel: a row per data set (unlock schedule, holder history, Jupiter snapshot, derivatives, DEX share, liquidations, events) reading "tracked", "not tracked", "could not load" or a reason. It ends with links to Crypto markets and the Token DD list.
• Sources line at the bottom.

• Public: no controls; follow the source links to check a schedule yourself.
• Signed in: page the schedule and event panels; hover KPI tiles and table cells for definitions and dates; press Watch to follow the token from your watchlist.

Signed in, you can type any symbol into the address (for example /crypto/tokens/BTC): you get the coverage panel plus the price, derivatives and event context we hold. The public page only exists for tokens in the curated set.

Exchange flow tracker

How much of an asset moved into and out of the wallets of tracked centralised exchanges, counting only large ("whale-class") transfers. Money moving into exchanges and money moving out are shown separately; we describe the direction of travel, not what it means for price.

Reading it (public snapshot: the Solana leg). The public page covers only transfers recorded on Solana.

• Title. "Exchange Flow Tracker", with "Public snapshot: transfers of $100K or more between tracked exchanges' Solana wallets and outside addresses".
• Answer line. One sentence with the 7-day totals, dated to the minute (UTC) with the time of the latest recorded Solana transfer. It is flagged stale when the latest transfer is more than 24 hours old.
• Last 7 days on Solana. One row each for USDC, USDT and SOL: Into exchanges (amount), Transfers in (count), Out of exchanges and Transfers out. USDC and USDT are in dollars at their $1 peg; SOL is in SOL (the public page carries no SOL price). "none" means no qualifying transfer. The meta line names the exchanges seen in the window.
• Latest transfers. The 10 most recent qualifying transfers in the last 30 days: Time (UTC), Asset, Direction ("Into exchange" or "Out of exchange", or "a tracked exchange" when unnamed), Amount, Other side (a known label, or "unlabelled address") and Transaction (the start of the transaction signature, linked).
• Sign-in card, then Method and limitations: we read the Solana transactions of a curated list of exchange wallets about every 10 to 15 minutes and keep transfers worth $100,000 or more; a transfer is "into" an exchange when the receiving wallet is attributed to it and "out of" it when the sending wallet is; same-entity moves (one exchange's wallet to another of its own) are excluded, and transfers between two different exchanges are counted in neither direction; this is a sample, not a census, so transfers can be missed. A Data sources link opens the methodology page.

Reading it (signed in: the full tracker). One screen titled Exchange flow. The context line reads "Whale-class transfers into and out of tracked exchange wallets · BTC, ETH, USDC, USDT · updated about every 10 minutes · as of time (age)", and "refreshing" while new data loads.

• Asset switch (top right): BTC, ETH, USDC, USDT. It sets the asset for every panel except the first four tiles.
• KPI strip.
  • BTC net, ETH net, USDC net, USDT net: each asset's 24-hour net flow (into minus out of exchanges), as an arrow and a signed dollar figure, with "more into exchanges", "more out of exchanges" or "balanced". These sum every labelled exchange in the tape, not only the exchanges in the table. Net is shown without red or green on purpose: outflow attribution is partial on every venue, so the sign is the only reading it carries.
  • Asset into exchanges and Asset out of exchanges: the chosen asset's 24-hour gross legs (hover for the amount in units).
  • Measured exchanges: "N / M", how many of the tracked exchanges have wallet coverage on the chosen asset's chain. The rest are unmeasured, not flat.
• Feed delayed note: appears under the strip when the latest on-chain observation is old, with its age.
• Asset flow (main chart). A switch sets the window: 24h (hourly buckets), 7d or 30d (daily buckets). Inflow bars sit above the zero rule, outflow bars below it, and a line traces net. Hover a bucket, or use the arrow keys (Home and End jump to the ends), for "time · into $ · out $ · net $"; click to pin a bucket and Esc or click again to release. A Transfers link in the panel bar opens the Whales desk.
• Where it moved. A ring of the chosen asset's measured flow (inflow plus outflow) by exchange over the window, with the measured total in the centre. Exchanges not tracked for the asset are left out, so a share is of what was measured, not of the market.
• Stablecoin net flow. USDC plus USDT net flow for the window, with a plain sentence ("more USDC + USDT moved into exchanges than out", the reverse, or "roughly balanced") and a bar per bucket above or below zero.
• Per exchange · asset · window. A paged table of the exchanges in our wallet registry: Exchange (colour swatch; hollow when not tracked), Into, Out of, Net (arrow and signed dollars), Share (of all measured flow) and Status ("Tracked", "Tracked · asymmetric coverage", "Coverage pending · ingestion in progress", or "Not tracked · asset"). "not measured" means unmeasured for this asset, not zero. These columns add up to less than the strip's figures, because the strip counts every labelled exchange. A Holdings link opens the Exchanges desk.
• Data coverage. Two tabs. Matrix: exchanges down, chains across; a filled dot is tracked, a half dot partial, a hollow dot not tracked, and a star after a chain name marks a chain with limited coverage. Notes: each chain's coverage note in full, plus the reminder that the figures count only whale-threshold transfers and can under-count retail flow.
• Excluded from the flow. What was taken out of every figure above for the chosen asset: Same-entity moves removed and their count, Raw gross inflow against Filtered inflow (for comparison), Exchange-to-exchange routing and its count, and a 24h block with routing and same-entity exclusions. "none detected" means the flows are shown unadjusted.
• Sources line at the bottom.

Public: no controls; click a transaction to verify it on the ledger. Signed in: pick the asset (top right) and the window (chart panel); page the per-exchange and coverage tables; switch coverage between Matrix and Notes; hover any tile, header or cell for its definition.

Compare the stablecoin panel with the BTC and ETH tiles: stablecoins moving onto exchanges and coins moving off are separate events, and the page keeps them separate. For individual large transfers with wallet labels, use Whales; for spot ETF creations and redemptions, see ETF flows.

How to read prediction markets

Every prediction-market page in Kresmion shows prices that traders set on two venues, Polymarket and Kalshi. We report those prices as they stand; they are not a Kresmion forecast and not advice. The terms below mean the same thing on every page in this chapter, so they are explained once here.

• A market is one yes-or-no question ("Will the Fed cut rates at the December meeting?"). Several related markets often belong to one event (each possible outcome of the December meeting is its own market). Pages show the event's title beside or under the question when it differs.
• YES price. The last traded price of a YES share, printed as a percentage. A YES share pays out 1 dollar if the question resolves YES and nothing if it resolves NO, so a price of 62% means traders were paying 62 cents for that dollar. Read it as "the crowd prices this at 62%", a price, not a probability we computed. The NO price is the other side of the same question; on a liquid market YES plus NO sits close to 100%.
• Moves are in percentage points (pp). A market that goes from 40% to 46% moved +6.0 pp, not 15%. Kresmion colours a move green (up) or red (down) only when it is larger than half a point; smaller moves print in neutral ink. The sign is always printed beside the colour.
• Volume. The dollar value traded in the market. Lifetime volume counts everything since the market opened; 24h volume counts the last day only. An event's volume adds up all its outcome markets; Kresmion pages show the market's own volume unless they say "event".
• Liquidity and the book. Liquidity is the dollar value of orders resting in the order book, waiting to be filled. The bid is the best price someone will pay for a YES share, the ask the best price someone will sell at, both in cents; the spread is the gap between them in points. A thin book (little liquidity, a wide spread) means a small trade can move the price, so a sharp move on a thin market says less than the same move on a deep one.
• Scheduled close and resolution. The close date is the venue's scheduled end of trading. A market can settle earlier (the event happened) or later (the outcome took time to confirm). How it settles is set by the venue's own resolution rules, the text you can read on each market page; the rules, not the question's headline, decide edge cases.
• Resolved markets leave the live boards, not the record. Once a market resolves, or passes its scheduled close, it drops out of every live board, screener, movers list and related-market link in this chapter. Its outcome is kept and feeds the calibration record. On the public side, a settled market's own /odds/<market> page stays up as a dated record with the outcome and the price path; see Public market page. On the signed-in desk, a market Kresmion no longer tracks shows "Market not found".
• A venue gap is not a move. When Polymarket and Kalshi quote the same question, the gap is Polymarket's YES price minus Kalshi's, in points. Gaps often reflect fees, slightly different wording or resolution criteria, settlement timing or a thin book on one side. Kresmion never colours a gap red or green.
• Calibration. Calibration asks: of all past markets the crowd priced near 30% a week before close, how many actually resolved YES? If about 30% did, prices in that band lined up with outcomes. The Brier score summarises this over many markets: 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is what you would score by always pricing 50%. It is a record of past markets, never a forecast of an open one.
• "--" means the venue did not report the value. It is never a zero.

Prediction markets desk

The signed-in prediction-markets desk lives under Intelligence › Community Intel › Prediction Markets in the desktop menu. Hover that row for its five tools: Market Movers, Divergence Scanner, Resolution Calendar, Crowd Calibration and Most Active Wallets. From anywhere in the app you can also press g then x for the hub, or g then y for Market Movers, or type the Cmd-K code ODDS (alias PM). Typing three or more characters in the Cmd-K palette also lists up to six matching live markets, each opening its market page.

How the pages fit together:

• The hub is the board of every open market. Every question, on every page in this group, opens the same market page.
• The four tool pages (Divergence, Calendar, Calibration, Wallets) carry a row of section pills under their title: Hub, Movers, Divergence, Calendar, Calibration, Wallets. The current page's pill is highlighted; each pill opens that page.
• Each page ends with a Sources line naming where its figures come from; its link opens /settings/data-sources at the markets family.
• The hub, the market page and Movers are one-screen terminal pages: long tables page instead of scrolling (the pager, such as "1-12 of 60", sits in the panel's top bar), columns step out on narrow screens and come back on wide ones, and hovering a column header explains the figure and the time it describes.

These pages need a free account. A signed-out visitor who opens /intel/polymarket is taken to the public odds hub instead. Any /intel/markets/... page shows a sign-in card with a link to "Prediction market odds", the same public hub.

Prediction markets hub

One screen that answers "what are prediction markets pricing right now, what moved, what closes soon, and where do the two venues agree": every open Polymarket market across all topics, with Kalshi's price beside it when the same question trades there.

• Title strip. "Prediction markets", with a context line such as "N open Polymarket markets across every topic · crowd prices, not a forecast". While you search it reads "N open markets matching text". When a topic or price-band filter is on, the filter is named at the end of the line with a small ×; click it to clear both filters.
• KPI strip. Every figure counts the markets in view, after your filters.
  • Open markets: how many open markets are shown ("loaded" when not searching, "matching" during a search). With a filter on, "of N" gives the unfiltered count. The board loads the 60 largest markets by lifetime volume for the chosen scope; markets past their scheduled close are hidden.
  • Volume: the lifetime traded volume of those markets, in US dollars.
  • Volume 24h: what they traded in the last 24 hours ("not reported" when the venue gave no 24h figure).
  • Largest 24h move: the biggest 24-hour repricing of 3 points or more, with its question. Click it to open that market. On the default load (All, no search) this reads the wider movers feed: every live market with at least $10K of volume, sports excluded, the same set as Market movers. With a scope, filter or search, it reads only the markets in view. "none of 3 pp+" means nothing qualified.
  • Closing in 30d: markets in view scheduled to close within 30 days, with the time to the next close ("in 4d"). Hover for the next question.
  • Kalshi match, in view: how many of the markets in view Kresmion matched to the same question on Kalshi ("of N open"). Click to open the Divergence scanner.
• What moved. Markets whose YES price moved 3 points or more in 24 hours, largest first. Columns: Question (with a coloured dot for its topic), YES (the last traded YES price) and 24h (the change in points). The meta line says which set it reads ("all live markets, $10K+ volume, sports excluded", "top 60 by volume" or "search results"). If nothing in view moved 3 points but the wider feed did, the empty panel offers a link such as "Movers: N moved 3 pp+ across all live markets". "+N more moves" at the foot opens Movers.
• Open markets (titled Search results while you search). Every market in view, paged to fit. Columns, as space allows:
  • Question, with its topic dot. Questions are shortened so the distinguishing words (a strike, a date) come first; hover for the full question and its event.
  • YES: the last traded YES price with a small level bar in the topic colour.
  • 24h and 7d: the change of the YES price in points over each window.
  • 7d path: a sparkline of the YES price over the last seven days, from Kresmion's own snapshots.
  • Volume (lifetime), Vol 24h and Liquidity (resting order-book dollars). The last two appear only on wide screens.
  • Closes: the scheduled close date ("no date" when the venue set none). Hover for the time left; a market can settle earlier or later.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi's YES price for the same question, shown only when at least one market in view is matched. "listed" means matched but Kalshi's price is not in the latest feed. Hover for the Kalshi ticker and the gap (Polymarket minus Kalshi).
• Crowd prices and volume. The main chart. Each lane is a topic (Polymarket's own category, such as Politics, Macro, Crypto, Geopolitics; "Other" when untagged), most volume first. Each dot is one market placed at its YES price on a 0 to 100% axis, sized by its lifetime volume, so you can see at a glance where the money sits and whether a topic's markets cluster near certainty or near a coin flip. When dots crowd one spot they fold into a "+N" tag; hover it for the list. The lane label carries the topic's lifetime volume; hover it for the number of open markets and the topic's share of the volume loaded.
• When they resolve. A small count line ("7d N · 30d N · 3 mo N · later N", plus "no date" when some markets have none), then a bar per day for the next 7 or 30 days counting scheduled closes, with a "Next:" tag naming the next market to close. Beside it, the list of the next markets to close (date, question, YES price). The window opens on the shortest one that holds at least one close.
• Venues and Calibration (one panel with two tabs).
  • Venues lists questions Kresmion merged across Polymarket and Kalshi in every topic, not only the markets in view (so its count differs from the KPI). Columns: Question, Venues ("P" Polymarket, "K" Kalshi, "P+K" both), Cons. (the consensus: a volume-weighted YES price across the venues listing the question), 24h (the consensus change in points) and Volume (across both venues). The meta line counts how many questions are on both venues.
  • Calibration shows how past prices lined up with outcomes, one row per price band: Priced (the band, such as 30-40%), n (resolved markets in it), Resolved YES vs price (a bar for the share that resolved YES with a tick at the mean crowd price), YES (the share that resolved YES) and Gap (resolved rate minus mean price, in points; a record, not a move). The meta line gives the sample size, the lead ("price 7d before close") and the overall Brier score. When the resolved set mixes very different market types (short-dated price ladders and event questions), the pooled rate is withheld: the cells read "w/h" and a line says "YES rate withheld: mixed market types" (hover it for why). "--" on a band means too few resolved markets to publish it.

• Search ("Search markets: fed, bitcoin…"): type three or more characters to search every open market in the scope, not only the 60 loaded. The table becomes Search results and the KPIs recount for the matches.
• Scope (All, Crypto, Macro, Equities): which markets to load, by the asset class Kresmion tags on each market. Changing scope clears the topic filter.
• Price band (Any, <10%, 35-65%, >90%): keep only markets whose YES price sits in that band. Use <10% to scan long shots, 35-65% for genuinely contested questions, >90% for near-certainties.
• Topic filter: click a lane label in Crowd prices and volume to show only that topic across the whole page; click it again to show every topic.
• Sort the open-markets table by Volume, 24h move (largest absolute move first) or Close (soonest first).
• When they resolve: switch between 7d and 30d; click a day's bar to list only that day's closes, click it again to clear.
• Venues / Calibration tabs switch the last panel.
• Hover any dot, bar, column header or truncated question for the full text and figures. The board refreshes every five minutes.

To find a specific market, search here or type its words in Cmd-K. The same board, grouped by coin and loading crypto markets first, is the crypto prediction markets page. A market that has resolved is no longer on this board; see the calibration record for how resolved markets are scored.

Market page

Everything about one market on one screen: where the YES price is and how it got there, the event's other outcomes, the same question on Kalshi, how deep the order book is and what a trade would cost, who traded it, related Kresmion events, and how it resolves.

• Title strip. The full question as the title. The context line gives the event title (when different), the category, "scheduled close date" (or "no scheduled close"), "updated time ago", "resolved: outcome" when it has settled, and "crowd price, not a forecast". On the right: ← Prediction markets (back to the hub), Polymarket ↗ and, when matched, Kalshi ↗ (the market on each venue's own site, in a new tab).
• KPI strip.
  • YES price: the last traded YES price on Polymarket with its 24-hour change in points. Hover for the NO price.
  • 7d move and 30d move: the change of the YES price over each window, in points.
  • Volume: lifetime volume, with the 24h volume under it, and the whole event's volume ("event $…") when the event is larger than this one market.
  • Book: resting liquidity in dollars, with the best bid / ask in cents per YES share and the spread in points ("not quoted" when there is no book).
  • Scheduled close: the time left ("in 12d") with the close date, "can settle early or late"; or Resolved with the outcome.
• How has the price moved? A line chart of the YES price in percent over time (UTC), recorded each time the price moves. When the market belongs to a larger event, up to five other outcomes are drawn as dotted lines in their own colours, and the legend labels each by the words that make it different ("Increase 25 bps", "Decrease 50 bps"). Hover for the value at any time. "Not enough history yet" means the market is new or rarely trades.
• Other outcomes of the event. Every sibling market of the event: Outcome (the distinguishing words; hover for the full question), YES, 24h (points) and Volume. "This market is the only outcome of its event" when there are none.
• Polymarket vs Kalshi (tab Venues). When the question is matched on Kalshi, a dumbbell on one 0 to 100% axis shows each venue's YES price as a dot (labelled "PM x%" and "Kalshi y%") joined by a bar, with "gap ±N pp" in the corner. Under it: Kalshi liquidity, Kalshi closes and the Kalshi market ticker. The gap is Polymarket minus Kalshi and is never coloured as a move. "Not matched on Kalshi" when the matcher has not paired the question.
• Facts (second tab of the same panel): Venue, Category ("not classified" when untagged), Event, Scheduled close, Status (Open, or Resolved with the outcome), NO price, Underlying (the asset symbols Kresmion mapped to the market, "not mapped" when none) and Market id.
• How deep is the book? The live YES side of the order book, refreshed about every 60 seconds. Three tabs:
  • Depth: the best levels first, up to 20. Bid $ and Ask $ are the dollars resting at each level; Bid ¢ and Ask ¢ the prices in cents per YES share.
  • Fills: a summary: bid / ask, spread, bid depth and ask depth in dollars, and the average price a $1K and a $10K buy or sell would fill at if it walked the visible book ("too thin" when the book cannot absorb it).
  • Cost: the cost of crossing the book now for a $1K and a $10K buy and sell, in basis points of the stake: Slip bps (slippage walking the book), Fee bps (the venue's taker fee at the executed price), Total, and Resting saves (what a resting limit order would avoid, on markets where only takers pay). A line above the table says what share of the $1K cost is the fee. When the venue's fee schedule for the market is unknown, the tab says so and shows no table.
• Who traded it? Public wallet activity, three tabs:
  • Fills: the largest fills of the last 24 hours: Side (Buy or Sell, with the outcome), Notional (dollars), Price, Wallet (the Polymarket pseudonym, or a shortened address) and UTC time.
  • Holders: the top holders at the latest snapshot: Side (Yes or No), Shares and Wallet.
  • Patterns (with a count when any): repeated behaviour detected over the last 48 hours in public fills and the visible book, each with its evidence: TWAP-like clips (similar-sized orders at regular intervals), Level absorption (many fills from several wallets absorbed at one price, consistent with hidden resting size) and Resting ladder (orders stacked at evenly spaced prices, consistent with programmatic placement). These are inferences from the data shown, not statements about who is trading or why.
• Kresmion context. For the underlying asset(s) mapped to the market (up to two), recent Kresmion events with their severity chip, and for crypto markets the recent whale transfers ("To exchange" or "From exchange", amount and exchange), newest first. "No underlying asset is mapped to this market yet" when nothing is mapped; mapping runs every six hours.
• How does it resolve? (tab Rules): the venue's own resolution text, with Full rules on Polymarket ↗. Tab Notes explains how to read the page: why venue gaps exist, that fill estimates walk only the visible book, how the fee works (the fee per share is a rate times price times one minus price, charged to takers; as a share of your stake it bites hardest on cheap outcomes, as a share of winnings on favourites), the limits of the wallet tape and the pattern detector, and the odds note.

• Switch the Venues / Facts, Depth / Fills / Cost, Fills / Holders / Patterns and Rules / Notes tabs. The page opens on Venues, Depth, Fills and Rules.
• Hover the chart for exact values; hover any truncated cell for its full text.
• Page through Other outcomes of the event with the pager in its bar.
• The page refreshes every five minutes; the book every minute.

"Market not found" with "It may have resolved and left the tracked set, or the link is wrong" means Kresmion no longer tracks that id; use Back to prediction markets. "Market could not load" is a temporary loading failure, not a sign the market has closed: press retry.

Read the resolution rules before reading much into a close date. On a wide spread or a "too thin" fill, a large move may be one small trade. A market that sits in a larger event is easiest to read with the dotted sibling lines on: the outcomes of one event should add up to roughly 100%.

Market movers

Which live prediction markets repriced the most over the last 24 hours or 7 days, by topic, plus the markets that opened in the last two days. It also carries a search over every live market.

• Title strip. "Market movers", with the context line "Largest YES-price repricings across live prediction markets · at least $10K volume · sports excluded (movers and new listings) · crowd prices, not a forecast" and the topic when one is selected. The 24h / 7d switch on the right sets the window for the whole page.
• KPI strip.
  • Repriced: how many markets qualified: the 30 largest moves in the window among live markets with at least $10K of volume, sports excluded.
  • Moved up and Moved down: how many of them are higher or lower than at the start of the window, ignoring moves under half a point.
  • Largest 24h move (or 7d): the biggest mover's distinguishing words with its change in points. Click it to open that market.
  • New listings: markets opened in the last 48 hours (non-sports), up to 15 listed.
• What repriced, 24 hours (or 7 days; Search results while you search). Largest move first. Columns:
  • Question, with its topic dot.
  • 24h ago → now (wide screens only): the move as a track on a 0 to 100% scale; the hollow dot is the YES price at the start of the window and the bar runs to today's price, green up, red down.
  • YES: today's YES price with its level bar.
  • 24h (the window you chose) and 7d (the other window): changes in points.
  • 7d path: sparkline of the last seven days.
  • Volume, Vol 24h, Liquidity, Closes, and Kalshi (only when a row is matched; hover for the ticker and the gap). While the Kalshi matches load, the panel's meta line says "Kalshi loading", and after 15 seconds "Kalshi slow, column when it lands".
• By topic. One row per topic (plus All topics): Mkts (markets repriced), Up and Down (outside the half-point deadband). Read it to see whether a day's repricing is concentrated in one topic, for example Politics after a debate.
• New listings. Markets opened in the last 48 hours, ranked by their early volume: Question, YES, Volume (since listing), Closes and Listed (when Kresmion first saw it). Sports-tagged markets are left out; a market the venue has not tagged yet can still appear.

• 24h / 7d switches the window for the KPIs, the table and the topic counts.
• Search markets (in the table bar): three or more characters search every live Polymarket market; the table lists the matches, largest move in the window first.
• Click a topic row to filter the table and KPIs to that topic; click it again, or All topics, to clear.
• Page each panel with the pager in its bar. The page refreshes every five minutes (new listings every ten).

"No qualifying moves yet" usually means the window has just begun to accumulate a baseline. A move on a market with little liquidity can be one trade; check the Liquidity column or the market page's book before reading much into it.

Divergence scanner

Where Polymarket and Kalshi price the same question differently, widest gap first.

• Header. "Cross-venue divergence", with the line "The same question priced on Polymarket and Kalshi, widest gap first · pairs are matched automatically and accumulate over time · crowd prices, not a forecast", and the section pills.
• KPI tiles.
  • Matched pairs live: how many question pairs are matched and quoting on both venues, with "Polymarket higher on N".
  • Gap of 3pp or more: pairs where the venues disagree by at least three points.
  • Widest gap: the largest gap (Polymarket minus Kalshi) and its question.
  • Hidden, frozen leg: pairs left out because one venue's quote showed no price or volume movement in 72 hours; a frozen quote makes the gap unreliable.
• Where do the venues disagree? One row per pair on a shared 0 to 100% YES axis: a dot for Polymarket and a dot for Kalshi (colours in the legend at the top right), joined by a neutral bar, with the gap beside it, widest first. Under the chart: "Gaps can reflect fees, resolution-criteria differences, settlement timing, or thin liquidity; judge each pair on its own terms", plus how many pairs were hidden for a frozen leg.
• Every matched pair. A sortable table of the same pairs, one row per Polymarket market: Question, YES (Polymarket), 7d (Polymarket sparkline), Volume, Liquidity, Closes (the Polymarket close date; Kalshi's can differ), Kalshi YES, Gap (bold at 3 points or more), Kalshi liq. (wide screens) and Venues (links to both venues). When one Polymarket market is matched to two Kalshi tickers, the table keeps the widest pair and a note says how many further matches appear only in the chart. No colour on this page is a signed reading: a gap is not a move.

• Click any column header in the table to sort; it opens sorted by gap, widest first.
• Type in the table's search box to filter questions.
• Click (or press Enter on) a row to open the market. The page refreshes every five minutes.

Before treating a gap as a disagreement, open the market page and compare the two venues' resolution rules and close dates: most persistent gaps trace back to different wording or timing.

Resolution calendar

Which sizable markets are scheduled to close in the next 14 days, week by week.

• Header. "Resolution calendar": "Markets scheduled to close in the next 14 days · at least $5K volume · a scheduled close is not a settlement date". Sports markets are left out.
• Topic pills. "All topics" and one pill per topic with its count, in the topic's colour.
• KPI tiles. Closing in 14 days (markets in view), Closing in 7 days (scheduled, can settle earlier or later), Busiest day (the date with the most closes, and how many) and Volume at stake (lifetime volume of those markets, with what they traded in 24h).
• When do they close? "N closing in the next 7 (or 14) days", a bar per day counting closes with the next market named, then How far out they close: a coloured strip and legend splitting the markets by time to close (7 days or less, 8 to 30 days, and so on; colours run warm for near to cool for far, a time scale, not a market reading), then Next to close: up to eight markets with their topic colour, question, date and time left.
• One panel per week, titled "This week · Mon to Sun", "Next week · …" or "Week of …", soonest close first. Each is the standard market table: Question, YES, 24h Δ, 7d sparkline, Volume (24h under it), Liquidity, Closes, Venue (Polymarket, plus Kalshi when matched, with the gap) and Topic (when All topics is selected).

• Click a topic pill to show only that topic (KPIs, timeline and weeks follow); click it again or All topics to clear.
• Switch the timeline between 7 days and 14 days.
• Sort any week's table by its headers, or filter it with its search box. The page refreshes every ten minutes.

A scheduled close is the end of trading, not the moment the answer is known: check the market's How does it resolve? panel for the settlement source and timing.

Crowd calibration

How well past prediction-market prices lined up with what actually happened. It covers resolved Polymarket markets only, scoring each by its price a set number of days before close (seven by default, printed on the page). It is a record of past markets, not a forecast of any open one.

• Header. "Crowd calibration": "How often the market price N days before close matched the outcome · resolved markets only · a record of past markets, not a forecast".
• KPI tiles.
  • Resolved sample: how many resolved markets are scored, at the stated lead.
  • Brier score: the average squared distance between the crowd price and the outcome (1 for YES, 0 for NO). 0 is perfect; 0.25 is what always pricing 50% scores. "not published" when the sample mixes market types that cannot be pooled.
  • Priced under 10%: of the markets priced under 10%, the share that resolved YES, with their average price and sample size. If long shots resolve YES more often than they were priced, the crowd underpriced them; less often, it overpriced them.
  • Priced over 90%: the same for near-certainties.
• Did prices match outcomes? A reliability diagram. The x axis is the crowd price N days before close, the y axis the share that resolved YES. Each blue dot is a price band at its mean price, sized by how many markets it holds, joined by a line. The dashed diagonal ("price = outcome rate") is perfect calibration: a dot above it means prices in that band resolved YES more often than priced, below it less often. Hover a dot for the band, the price, the resolved rate, the gap in points and the sample. With + Categories, each topic adds a diamond in its colour at its own mean price and resolved rate.
• Brier score by category. One bar per topic with at least three resolved markets, best (lowest) first, in topic colours. The dashed line marks 0.25 (always pricing 50%) and a solid line the score of all markets together.
• By category. A sortable table: Category, Markets, Brier, Crowd price (mean), Resolved YES (rate) and Gap (resolved rate minus mean price, in points).

• Price bands / + Categories toggles the category diamonds on the diagram.
• Sort the table by any header. Hover bars and dots for exact figures.
• "No resolved markets captured yet" means the record is still filling; it grows with every resolution sweep.

A small sample makes any band noisy: always read the dot size or n before the gap. Calibration does not say whether any open market is mispriced; it describes how this venue's prices have behaved on questions that have already settled.

Most active wallets

Which public Polymarket wallets traded the most notional across the top tracked markets in the last 24 hours or 7 days. It measures activity, not skill: profit and loss is not computed.

• Header. "Most active wallets": "Wallets across the top prediction markets, ranked by observed fill notional · public on-chain activity · activity, not skill". The fills come from Polymarket's public data on about the 100 largest tracked markets, sports excluded.
• Window. 24h / 7d pills under the header.
• KPI tiles. Wallets, 24h (the top 30 by notional), Their notional (bought plus sold, observed fills), Bought share (bought as a share of bought plus sold, with both amounts) and Their net flow (bought minus sold, green when positive, red when negative).
• Who is trading the most? One bar per wallet, largest first, on a shared scale: the blue part is notional bought, the violet part notional sold (sides, not signed readings). Each row gives the pseudonym (or a shortened address), "N fills · N markets", the total and the net (bought minus sold, signed and coloured). Under the bars: "A wallet is a pseudonymous address, not a person: one trader can run many wallets, and a wallet can be a bot, a vault or a market maker quoting both sides. The bars are notional traded, not profit."
• Every wallet. The same 30 wallets as a sortable table: Wallet, Fills, Markets, Bought, Sold, Net and Total. It opens sorted by total.

• Switch 24h / 7d. Sort the table by any header. Click a bar or a row (or press Enter) to open the wallet. The page refreshes every five minutes.

A wallet with large bought and sold amounts and a small net is often quoting both sides (market making); a large one-sided net is a directional flow in the observed fills, which still says nothing about the wallet's other positions.

Wallet profile

What one public Polymarket wallet traded over the last 30 days, and which markets it is a top holder in.

• Header. The wallet's Polymarket pseudonym (or a shortened address) as the title; under it the full address, "last seen time ago" and Polymarket profile ↗. Above the header, ← Most active wallets; the section pills sit under the title with Wallets highlighted.
• Activity strip. 30-day notional (bought plus sold), 30d fills, Markets traded, First seen and Last seen (when Kresmion's tape first and last recorded a fill).
• Where did it trade? 30-day flow per market: Market (the question, with "last outcome traded: Yes/No/outcome"), Bought, Sold, Net (signed and coloured), Fills and Last fill. Opens sorted by bought.
• Recent fills. The latest 15: Side (Buy or Sell and the outcome), Market, Notional and Price.
• Top holder in. Markets where the wallet appears among the top holders at the latest snapshot, with the side (Yes or No) and the shares held. "Not among the top holders of any tracked market" when none.
• "No recorded activity for this wallet" means Kresmion's tape has no fill for that address, with a link back to the wallet list. If the profile could not load at all, the page says "This wallet could not load right now" with a Try again button.

Sort the tables by their headers; click any market row, fill or holding to open the market.

A pseudonym is the name the wallet chose on Polymarket; it identifies the address, not a person.

Public odds pages

The public odds pages show prediction-market prices to everyone, with no account: the odds index at /odds, one page per market at /odds/<market>, the 2026 US midterms board, and the prediction market screener. All public odds pages show Polymarket prices only. The signed-in prediction markets hub adds a second venue, cross-venue comparison, order flow and the analysis tools. For how to read a YES price as a probability, see How to read prediction markets.

You reach them from the public site menu (Odds, and Midterms 2026 while the 2026 midterm markets are live), from the public tools list (/tools), and from search engines. A signed-out visitor who opens a signed-in prediction markets page is offered /odds instead (the hub at /intel/polymarket sends a signed-out visitor straight there).

A market counts as live, and appears in the lists on these pages, while all of the following hold: the venue has not settled it, its scheduled end date is no more than 7 days past, its price updated within the last 24 hours, and its YES price sits between 1% and 99%. The moment a market settles it leaves every live list (the index, the movers, "other outcomes" and "more markets" links) but keeps its own page as a dated record (see Market page).

Every page carries the same closing notice: we report prediction market prices as market data, we are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, nothing is an invitation to trade, and prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction.

Prediction market odds index

What prediction markets currently price for Fed decisions, Bitcoin levels, elections and geopolitics, which prices moved most in the last day, and which large markets settled recently.

• Header. "Live event odds, from the crowd", with a line explaining the source (Polymarket, refreshed continuously) and that these are crowd probability estimates, not financial advice.
• PINNED: 2026 midterms board. A banner linking to the midterms board, with Open the board. It carries no number, so it can never disagree with the board.
• Biggest moves, last 24 hours. Up to 10 markets with the largest 24-hour change. Each row shows the question, the YES price in percent, the change in percentage points ("+3.2pp 24h" in green, "-3.2pp 24h" in red; moves under 0.05 points are not printed) and lifetime volume. The note under the list states the filter: markets that settle more than a day from now, with at least $50K traded; weather, match-result and post-count markets are left out.
• Largest markets settled in the last 14 days. Up to 12 settled markets in politics, geopolitics, macro, finance and crypto, largest by volume. Each row reads "Resolved YES", "Resolved NO" or "Closed" (closed without a recorded outcome) with the settlement date. Each one opens its dated record.
• Largest live markets by category. Chips jump to each group: Politics and elections, Macro and the Fed, Finance and markets, Crypto, Geopolitics, Other markets. Each group lists up to 8 of the largest live markets by volume, with the YES price and lifetime volume. "Odds are refreshing, check back in a moment" appears if the list could not load.
• About these numbers. Three questions that open on click: what the percentages mean (the live YES price, read as the crowd's probability estimate), how often it updates (the largest markets every few minutes, every live market at least every six hours), and that it is not advice. The source line says percentages are YES prices and volume is lifetime traded volume in US dollars.
• Email and Telegram card. "Get the morning brief by email" with an email box, or "Join on Telegram" for live alerts.

The page is rebuilt at most every 5 minutes.

Click a category chip to scroll to its group. Click any row to open the market. The question boxes in About these numbers expand on click.

Volume is the quickest check on a price: a move on a thin market can be one trade. For more movers with search, use the screener; signed in, Market movers has the full ranking.

Public market page

One market in detail: its current YES price, how it moved, how deep its order book is, how it resolves, and related markets. Once settled, the same address shows the venue's recorded outcome and the price path that led to it.

• Header. "← All prediction markets", then the question as the title and "Part of: event" when the market belongs to a multi-outcome event.
• Answer line. One dated sentence with the YES price and its change from a week before, sourced to the market's record on the Polymarket API. Flagged stale when the price is more than 24 hours old. Method and limitations opens the prediction-markets section of the methodology page.
• Headline figures. Yes probability (large, in percent), 24h change (percentage points, green up, red down), 7d change (percentage points, neutral colour), Volume (lifetime) and Resolves by (the scheduled end date).
• Alert me on this market. Opens a small panel to set an alert on this number: Probability crosses a level (1 to 99%), Moves in a day by a number of points, or Market resolves. Signed out, you can fill it in; Create a free account to set this alert saves your choice and creates the alert once you have signed in.
• 2026 midterms board link: shown on any market that belongs to the midterms board.
• Probability history. A line of the recorded YES price, with gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
• History in numbers. The same history as text: the range since the first recorded price ("traded between low percent (date) and high percent (date), across N recorded prices") and where today's price stands against 7 and 30 days ago. Tiles: Lifetime high, Lifetime low, 7 days ago, 30 days ago and Recorded prices. A 7-day or 30-day mark is left out when no price was recorded close enough to that date. Weekly closes: the last recorded YES price of each week, oldest first.
• Market liquidity. From the latest order-book snapshot: Best bid, Best ask, Mid (all in percent), Spread (in percentage points), Bid depth within 1% and Ask depth within 1% (dollars resting within 1% of the mid). A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price; depth indicates how much can trade near the current price. On a low-priced market the 1% band can be narrower than the gap to the best quote, so a side reads "in spread" and the page shows Resting at best bid / ask instead. The capture time is printed in UTC.
• Other outcomes in this event. The sibling markets of a multi-outcome event with their YES prices. Each one is a separate market, so their prices need not add up to 100.
• Market details. Lifetime volume, 24h volume, Liquidity, Resolution date, Category, and Venues: Polymarket (a link only for a standalone yes/no market).
• How this market resolves. A plain reading of the price ("The market currently prices the YES outcome at N percent, with the NO outcome at 100 minus N percent") and the venue's own resolution rules and source, verbatim.
• More category markets, Background reading (explainer articles), Cite this data, the email and Telegram card, and the source line with the last update time in UTC.

The address keeps working, and becomes a dated record:

• A status badge, Resolved YES, Resolved NO or Closed (closed without a recorded outcome), with the settlement date, and "Every price on this page is a dated historical record".
• Outcome card: the venue's recorded resolution, Settled (the venue's own close time, which can be earlier than the Scheduled end), Last recorded price, Last price recorded on, 7 days before that, Lifetime volume and Category. The outcome always comes from the venue's settlement, never from the last price.
• Probability path: one point per day over the market's whole life, the recorded range, and weekly closes.
• How this market resolved (the venue's rules), live markets in the same event, other settled outcomes in the event, live and recently settled markets in the same category, and background reading.

What changes when a market settles: it disappears from the live lists everywhere (the index, movers, screener, sibling and related links, and the midterms board). It can still appear in Largest markets settled in the last 14 days on the index and in "settled" lists on related pages. Search engines are asked to index only the settled records likely to stay useful (a recorded YES or NO outcome, not sports or uncategorised, at least $100,000 traded, settled within the last 12 months, and not a recurring daily or price-ladder market); the rest stay reachable but are marked not to be indexed. The odds sitemap lists live markets with at least $10,000 traded (no sports) plus that indexable settled set.

A market that drops out of the live set without being settled (for example a price above 99% or below 1%, or no update for a day) shows "Market not found" until the venue settles it. That page says so: a market leaves the live list at 1% or 99% or when the venue stops updating it, and its page comes back as a dated record once the venue settles it; otherwise the link may be mistyped or the venue may have changed the address.

The page has no filters: every number is printed as text. Use Alert me on this market to be notified. Click sibling and related rows to move across an event.

Check the spread and depth before reading much into a small move: a wide spread means the "price" is a midpoint between two distant quotes. A settled record's "7 days before that" figure shows what the market priced a week before it closed. Signed in, Market detail adds the second venue and order flow.

2026 midterms board

One board for the US elections of November 3, 2026: what Polymarket prices for Senate and House control, every recorded Senate, governor and House race, how deep the order books are, and what moved this week.

• Header. "2026 midterms: what the markets price", with one answer sentence ("Polymarket prices Democratic control of the Senate at N% and of the House at N%, as of time") and an election-day countdown ("N days", then "Results pending venue settlement" after the vote).
• Senate control after Nov 3 and House control after Nov 3 cards. Dem YES and Rep YES rows, each with the price (the mid of the YES book, in percent) and the bid / ask under it. Dem 24h and Dem 7d: the Democratic leg's change in percentage points (green up, red down; blank when no price was recorded close enough to the lookback). A sparkline shows the Democratic YES price over 30 days, hourly, with its range. Captured time (UTC) shows when the price was read, with a stale tag when it is old. Each party leg is its own market, so the two prices are quoted independently and need not add up to 100; we never derive one from the other. Dem full record and Rep full record open the market pages, and an alert control sits under each card.
• Balance of power, both chambers. One bar split between the combined outcomes (Dem Senate, Dem House; Rep Senate, Dem House; Rep Senate, Rep House; Dem Senate, Rep House; Other), each its own market. The note gives the sum of their YES prices; the bar widths are scaled to 100. Each label opens its market.
• Race board. Tables for Senate, Governor and House (the 20 House districts closest to 50, with Show the other N House districts for the rest). Races are ordered closest to 50 first, then by volume. Columns: Race, Dem YES (shaded blue above 50, amber below), Rep YES, 7d (the Democratic leg, or the named leg when no party leg exists), Bid / ask, Depth 1% (bid / ask dollars within 1% of the mid from a book recorded in the last few hours, "n/a" otherwise, "in spread" when the band is narrower than the gap to the best quote) and Volume. Other candidates appear in small type under the race name. A race whose last capture is old shows its capture time. Races the venue has not listed are absent.
• Market depth: price impact of a $1k and $10k order. For the four control legs and the ten largest races: the average fill price walking the latest recorded order book for a $1,000 and a $10,000 order on the Ask side (taking offered YES shares) and the Bid side (taking resting bids), the distance from the best level in points, and the taker fee in basis points. "not fillable" means the order runs past the recorded price levels. Books older than the stated age are not used, and the note names any control leg left out for that reason.
• Biggest moves this week. The ten midterm markets with the largest absolute 7-day change: 7d ago (with its date), Now and Change.
• How settled politics markets resolved. A calibration table of past settled Polymarket politics markets, grouped by their recorded price before settlement: Recorded price (the band), Markets, Avg price and Resolved YES (the share that resolved YES). If markets in the 60 to 70 band resolved YES about 65% of the time, prices in that band matched outcomes on this sample. It is a record of past markets, not a forecast. The signed-in Crowd calibration page has the full study.
• Seat counts, popular vote and other midterm markets. Partial ladders with YES, 7d, Bid / ask and Volume. The buckets do not cover every outcome, so no seat distribution is drawn from them.
• Open this board in the Kresmion terminal. Signed out: Create a free account or Continue with Google. Signed in: Open the terminal.
• Method and sources, Questions (what the numbers mean, why the two legs need not sum to 100, how often it updates, not advice) and Cite this data.

The page is rebuilt at most once a minute. Control markets are captured about every 5 minutes, race markets on a slower rotation of under an hour.

Expand the remaining House districts with the summary line under the House table. Expand the questions. Set an alert from a control card. Click any race or market to open its page.

Read the bid / ask beside every price: the board shows mids, and a wide gap on a thin race means the mid is soft. The depth table shows what a $10k order would do to the price, which is often more telling than the price itself.

Prediction market screener

The biggest probability repricings across live prediction markets over 24 hours or 7 days, and a quick search across thousands of questions.

• Header. "Prediction market screener", with a method note: we rank Polymarket markets by their 24-hour and 7-day probability moves; the prices are Polymarket's, not our estimate. It covers every topic Polymarket lists, from Fed decisions and elections to short-dated weather, tweet-count and daily up-or-down markets, which often lead the list; only sports markets are excluded from the movers list.
• Rows. Up to 20 markets. Each shows the question (with the event name in small type under it), the YES price in percent, the move in percentage points for the chosen window ("+4.1pp 24h", green up, red down; hidden under 0.05 points) and lifetime volume. "n/a" means no price recorded. Short-dated markets such as daily price levels, weather and post counts can appear here, because the ranking is purely by size of move.

• 24h movers / 7d movers buttons switch the ranking window.
• Search box ("Search any market: fed, bitcoin, election..."): type 3 or more characters to replace the movers list with up to 20 matching markets. The window buttons hide while a search is active; clear the box to return to the movers.
• "No markets match that search" or "No qualifying moves right now" appear when there is nothing to show.

Filter out noise by checking volume first: a 40-point move on a market that settles today is usually the market converging on a known result. Signed in, Market movers shows the full ranking.

Where to find it

• See today's biggest crypto gainers and decliners → Crypto overview, Top movers (g then c)
• Check BTC dominance or the Fear & Greed index → Crypto overview, KPI strip
• See liquidations by hour over the last 24 hours → Crypto overview, Liquidations 24h
• Compare funding rates across venues → Crypto overview, Funding by venue
• Read BTC funding history, open interest or the long/short split → Crypto derivatives
• See BTC or ETH options skew, max pain or the put/call ratio → Crypto derivatives, Options
• Find yesterday's net flow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs → Crypto ETF flows (Cmd-K ETF)
• See which ETF issuer holds the most assets → Crypto ETF flows, AUM by issuer
• Find large transfers into one exchange today → Whale transfers (Cmd-K WHALE), Direction and Exchange filters
• Get alerted when a wallet moves funds → Whale transfers, Your wallet watches
• See how much each exchange holds on chain → Exchange holdings
• See large BTC, ETH, USDC or USDT flows into or out of exchanges without an account → Exchange flow
• See which exchanges and chains the flow data covers → Exchange flow, Data coverage
• Find crypto questions on Polymarket and their odds → Crypto prediction markets
• See active crypto threshold events → Crypto events
• Read the latest crypto headlines → Crypto news
• Find the top Solana pools or the most traded tokens on Solana → Solana DEX
• Check the slippage of a large swap on Ethereum → Ethereum DEX, Trade cost
• See which token unlocks next → Token DD (/crypto/tokens)
• Check a token's unlock schedule and holder concentration → Token DD page, /crypto/tokens/<SYMBOL>
• Learn what a YES price of 62% means → How to read prediction markets
• See every open prediction market and what moved → Prediction markets hub (Cmd-K ODDS, g then x)
• Find a specific prediction market by keyword → Cmd-K (type 3 or more characters), or the hub's search box
• See the biggest 24h or 7d repricings → Market movers (g then y)
• See markets opened in the last 48 hours → Market movers, New listings
• Read one market's price history, order book and resolution rules → Market page
• See what a $10K trade would cost on a market → Market page, How deep is the book?, Cost tab
• See who traded a market and the largest fills → Market page, Who traded it?
• Compare Polymarket and Kalshi on the same question → Divergence scanner
• See which markets close in the next two weeks → Resolution calendar
• Check how well past prices matched outcomes → Crowd calibration
• See the most active prediction-market wallets → Most active wallets
• Look up one wallet's trades and holdings → Wallet profile
• Browse live odds without an account → Public odds, /odds
• See how a settled market resolved and its price path → its public market page, /odds/<market>
• Set an alert when a market crosses a level → Public market page, Alert me on this market
• See Senate and House control odds → 2026 midterms board
• Screen live markets by move and volume without an account → Prediction market screener