USER GUIDE · CHAPTER 06
Futures, commodities, positioning and options
Futures curves, seasonality and volatility, commodities and inventories, positioning, and the options desk.
In this chapter
This chapter covers the derivatives side of Kresmion: the signed-in futures desk (quote boards, contract pages, curves, volatility, seasonality and the roll calendar) and its three public tools, the commodities pages (quotes, ratios, CFTC positioning, events and EIA inventories), the positioning pages (CFTC Commitments of Traders, New York Fed primary dealer positions, FINRA short volume and FINRA short interest) and the options desk (IV rank, put/call ratios, max pain, unusual activity, modeled greeks exposure and implied probability).
Most of it sits under Markets › Futures, Markets › Commodities and Markets › Options in the desktop menu, with the positioning pages under Tools › Positioning & Flows and Data › Capital Flows. The futures and commodities desks need a free account. The options pages and the positioning tools are public; when you are signed in, the same address opens a denser terminal version.
The pages most readers start with, and the question each answers:
- Futures overview: what moved across energy, metals, agriculture and financial futures at the last settle, and which contracts were flagged.
- Futures curves: which markets are in contango or backwardation, and how steep the front of each curve is.
- Commodities overview: where oil, metals and grains trade now, with cross-commodity ratios and speculative positioning.
- Short interest: which US stocks carry the largest short positions against their float, and what has happened since the last FINRA settlement.
- Greeks exposure: where modeled dealer gamma sits by strike, the zero-gamma flip level, the walls and the volatility structure of an underlying.
- IV rank: which names have implied volatility near the top or bottom of their own stored range.
Every figure on these pages describes positioning, prices or structure as recorded. None of it is a forecast or a trade suggestion.
Signed-in futures desk
The futures desk is a set of one-screen terminal pages under Markets › Futures. They follow the same layout rules as the signed-in macro desk: a title strip, a strip of headline figures (KPIs), then a grid of panels that fits one screen on a laptop or larger and stacks below about 1024 pixels wide.
A few things hold on every futures page:
- Section tabs. A row of text tabs in the title strip links the seven futures pages: Overview, Commodities, Financials, Curve, Volatility, Seasonality and Roll calendar. The tab for the page you are on is marked. Contract pages show the same row with no tab marked.
- Daily settle, not live. The futures boards read front-month continuous contracts at their daily end-of-day settle. A "1D" figure is the change into the latest settle, not a live move. When the newest settle is one or more weekday sessions old, the page says so in the title strip and in a Stale line under the KPIs.
- Hover a column header for what the number measures and the day it describes. Hover a row's name for its exchange, contract size, settle date and day range.
- Colour. Commodity contracts carry the amber commodities marker and financial futures the indigo macro marker. Green and red appear only on signed changes (1D moves), and a move inside ±0.1% reads as flat (grey).
- "--" means a value the source did not provide or that is not computed yet. It is never a zero.
- Sources. The last line of each page is a Sources link (Sources links).
- Signed out. A signed-out visitor sees the sign-in panel. For the curve, volatility and seasonality pages it also offers the free public version (public futures tools).
Contract symbols on these pages drop the "=F" suffix: gold's front month is GC, and its page is /futures/GC.
Futures overview
One screen that answers "what did futures do at the last settle": how many contracts rose or fell, how each asset class moved on average, the largest gains and declines, which contracts the detector flagged in the last seven days, and a quote board of every tracked contract.
- Title strip. "Futures", with the number of contracts, the scope ("energy, metals, agriculture and financial"), "front-month continuous, daily EOD settle" and the latest settle date. When the settle is behind, "N sessions old" is added.
- Latest settle. The newest settle date on the board and, beneath it, "current" or "N sessions old". Hover it for how many weekday sessions have closed since. Other desks (macro, commodities) may quote newer prices.
- Up / down. How many contracts settled above and below their prior settle, and how many were flat, out of those that reported.
- Energy mean, Metals mean, Agriculture mean, Financial mean. The unweighted average 1D % change of the contracts in each class ("of N" beneath). Unweighted means each contract counts once, whatever its size.
- Signals. How many volume and gap anomalies the detector recorded on these contracts in the last seven days, with a count by severity.
- Stale note. When the board is behind, a line under the KPIs says every 1D on the page is the change into that older settle.
- Where the day moved. One equal-size tile per contract, grouped by class. The tint shows the 1D % change against the prior settle, capped at 3% (the legend on the panel shows the scale); grey inside ±0.1%. Hover a tile for the price, the change, the settle day and its 52-week position.
- Largest gains / Largest declines. The five contracts with the largest 1D % rise and fall: Contract, Last (settle) and 1D.
- Active signals. The last seven days of detector flags on these contracts, worst first: a severity chip (CRIT, HIGH, MED, LOW; see event severity), the contract, the headline and how long ago it was detected. Hover the chip for the detector's strength out of 100. The list pages instead of scrolling (pager in the panel bar).
- The two quote boards ("Energy and metals" and "Agriculture and financial" on this page), with class section headers. Columns:
- Contract: symbol and short name, with the contract's worst event chip if it has one.
- Last: the settle. Chg: the 1D change in price units. 1D: the 1D % change ("unch" when the settle equals the prior one; hover for the note that the vendor may have repeated the prior bar).
- Day: a small track with a tick showing where the settle sat in the day's low to high range.
- 52w: position in the 52-week range, 0 at the low and 100 at the high.
- RV20: annualised 20-day realised volatility. An SQ badge marks a squeeze: RV20 at or below the 10th percentile of its own past year. Hover for RV60 and the percentile.
- COT z: the CFTC non-commercial (speculator) net position as a z-score against its trailing three years (156 weekly reports), bold at 2 or more either side; "n/a" when no CFTC market is mapped to the contract. Hover for the market name and its COT index.
- Roll: days to the front contract's next first notice day (FND) or last trading day (LTD), for example "12d FND", bold when 5 days or fewer. "--" when the roll rule could not be verified from an exchange source; hover says so.
- Vol: volume on the settle day. "--" when the continuous contract reports fewer than 5,000 contracts, which the page treats as unreliable vendor volume (hover for the reported figure).
- 30d: a sparkline of the last 30 daily closes.
- Chart: a link to the full price chart.
- On narrow screens the right-hand columns hide first.
- Refresh (title strip) reloads the three feeds; it reads "Updating" while it runs.
- Order the boards with Class (grouped by class, the default), 1D (largest gain first) or 52w (highest in range first). Missing values sort last.
- Filter contracts (search box in the first board's bar) matches name, symbol, exchange or class, and applies to both boards.
- Heat map: click a tile to select it, double-click it or press Enter to open the contract.
- Nothing on this page is remembered between visits.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A tile (double-click or Enter), a mover row, an event row, a board row | The contract page, /futures/<ROOT> (Futures contract) |
| Chart on a board row | The full price chart, /chart/commodity/<SYMBOL> |
| "+N more contracts" under the first board | Commodity futures, /futures/commodities |
| "+N more contracts" under the second board | Financial futures, /futures/financials |
| A section tab | That futures page |
| Sources | /settings/data-sources at the commodities family |
To see only commodities or only financial futures with finer groups (grains, softs, livestock; index, rates, currencies, crypto), use the Commodities and Financials tabs. To compare the 5-minute commodity snapshot instead of the settle, open the Commodities overview.
Commodity futures
The futures overview limited to energy, metals and agriculture, with the agricultural contracts split into finer groups.
Everything reads as on the overview, with these differences:
- The title is "Commodity futures" and the scope line reads "energy, metals and agriculture".
- The KPI strip shows the Energy, Metals and Agriculture means (no financial mean).
- The heat map, movers and events cover commodity contracts only.
- The two boards are Energy and metals (Energy, Metals) and Agriculture (sections Grains and oilseeds, Softs, Livestock).
- There is no "+N more" link: every contract is already on this page's boards.
The same controls as the overview: Refresh, the Class / 1D / 52w order, the contract filter and the heat map.
As on the futures overview: rows and tiles open /futures/<ROOT>, Chart opens /chart/commodity/<SYMBOL>.
The curve of each of these markets (contango or backwardation) is on Futures curves; its positioning history is on COT positioning.
Financial futures
The futures overview limited to financial futures: equity index, Treasury, currency and crypto contracts.
Everything reads as on the overview, with these differences:
- The title is "Financial futures" and the scope reads "equity index, rates, FX and crypto".
- The KPI strip shows a single Financial mean.
- The two boards are Equity index and rates (sections Equity index, Treasury rates) and FX and crypto (sections Currencies, Crypto).
- Rows carry the indigo macro marker rather than the commodities amber.
The same controls as the overview.
As on the futures overview.
Treasury futures move inversely to yields; for the yields themselves see the US yield curve tool. The COT z column shows speculator positioning in the matching CFTC financial market where one is tracked.
Futures contract page
Everything Kresmion holds on one continuous front-month contract on one screen: the settle and the day, the price history, the shape of its curve, its range, volatility and seasonal record, its next roll date, the next scheduled report that moves it, the detector's events on it, and how speculators and hedgers are positioned in the matching CFTC market.
- Title strip. The contract name, then the symbol, the exchange and "settle day (daily EOD)". On the right: the section tabs, a Watch button, an Alert button (see Using it) and Full chart.
- Last settle. The front-month continuous settle with its 1D change. Hover for the change in points.
- Day range. The settle day's low to high. Volume. Contracts traded on the settle day.
- 52w position. Where the last close sits in the trailing 52-week range, "N / 100" with a meter (0 = the 52-week low, 100 = the high).
- RV20. Annualised realised volatility over the last 20 sessions, with its percentile within the last year beneath.
- ATR 14. The 14-day average true range as a % of price, with the same in points beneath.
- Next print (crude oil, Brent, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and the Treasury, equity index and currency futures). One line under the strip with the scheduled report that moves this market: the EIA crude, gasoline or distillate stocks change, the EIA natural gas storage change, or the Fed rate decision. It gives when the next one is, in UTC, with its consensus ("consensus not published yet" before there is one), then the last one: what it printed against its consensus, in the form "EIA crude stocks <day> <time> UTC, consensus <value> · last <day>: <value> vs consensus <value>". Stock changes are in millions of barrels, gas storage in Bcf, the Fed decision as the policy rate in %. The dates and figures come from the economic calendar (Macro calendar); the consensus is the calendar's published forecast, not a Kresmion estimate.
- Price history. A daily settle chart. Hover for the price on a day.
- Range, volatility and season. A table in four groups, computed from the back-adjusted daily history (dated "daily history through day"):
- Season, <month>: the average return for the current calendar month (green above +0.1%, red below -0.1%), the share of years that month closed higher, and the years of history behind it. "not enough history" when the record is too short.
- Volatility: realised volatility over 60 sessions and the squeeze flag (on or off).
- Roll: three rows: Front contract (for example "CLZ26"), the next first notice day or last trading day for it ("Next first notice day", for example "Mon 19 Oct"; hover for the contract, the date and what the day means) and Days to it. A first notice day is when the exchange can start assigning deliveries to holders of physically delivered contracts. "schedule not verified" when we could not verify the rule from an exchange source; no date is shown then.
- Contract: exchange, contract size and asset class.
- Signals on this contract. Volume and gap anomalies from the last 30 days: time, severity chip, headline and the detector's strength out of 100. Paged.
- <Market> curve (markets with a daily curve on Futures curves). A compact chart of the settle by delivery month, front first, with the same curve about a week earlier dashed and dated in the legend. The panel header gives the state, the front-to-next spread ("F to N"), its change over about a week in percentage points ("1W", followed by "(roll)" when the front contract rolled in that week) and the settle date. Until two delivery months have settled it reads "No stored curve for <ROOT> yet."
- Who is positioned: <CFTC market>. The CFTC Commitments of Traders reading for the mapped market, dated by report week (on a market with a curve panel, a bell on this panel's header sets an alert on the COT market):
- COT index 3y: the speculator net rescaled to 0 to 100 within its own three-year range, followed by fixed words: "high end of its 3y range" at 80 or more, "low end of its 3y range" at 20 or less, otherwise "mid 3y range". A net-long position at the low end reads "(still net long)", and a net-short one at the high end "(still net short)", so the words never misstate the side.
- Net z 3y: the speculator net as a z-score against its trailing three years (156 weekly reports). Hover for "crowded vs trailing 3 years" at 2 or more either side, "within normal range" otherwise.
- Non-comm. net: the non-commercial (speculator) net position in contracts.
- A weekly line chart of the non-commercial net (solid) and the commercial (hedger) net (dotted), with a zero line. Hover for the week.
- "No CFTC Commitments of Traders market is mapped to this contract" when there is none.
- Not a tracked contract. An unknown symbol shows a panel saying so (the futures universe covers energy, metals, agriculture, equity index, Treasury, currency, bitcoin and Ethereum front months), with a button to the futures overview.
- Price history range: 3M, 1Y, 5Y, ALL (default 1Y). Each range loads the stored settles it covers; ALL loads the longest history the page serves, about ten years. A contract with a shorter series shows everything it has.
- Watch adds the contract to your watchlist (it then appears wherever your watchlist is used, for example on Home).
- Alert (beside Watch) sets an alert. On a market with a curve panel it is a curve alert that opens with Front vs next spread crosses already chosen, at a round level near the current spread (Curve flips to is the other choice); on a market without one it is an alert on the matching CFTC market, when one is mapped (Speculators stretched versus their 3-year range or Speculator net position flips sign). The bell on the positioning panel offers those COT alerts on a market that has a curve panel. See Alerts settings.
- Hover the stat cells and the KPI strip for definitions.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| Full chart, or Chart on the Price history panel | /chart/commodity/<SYMBOL> |
| Curves → on the curve panel | Futures curves opened on this market, /futures/curve?root=<ROOT> |
| COT → on the positioning panel | COT positioning on the matching market, /capital-flows/cot?market=<market> (/capital-flows/cot when none is mapped) |
| Alert, or the bell on the positioning panel | An alert panel on this page; its Manage in Settings, Alerts link opens /settings/alerts |
| A section tab | That futures page |
| Open the futures overview (unknown contract) | /futures/overview |
The curve panel shows today against a week ago; for the month-ago curve, the spread history and every other market, follow Curves →. The delivery-month table there links each month to its own page.
Delivery-month contract page
One delivery month of a futures market, as the daily curve snapshot recorded it: its settle history, how far it trades from the front month, and where it sits on today's curve.
- Title strip. "<Market>, <Month Year> contract", then the contract code, exchange, delivery month and its position on the latest curve ("month 3 of 12 on the day curve"). On the right: the section tabs and a link to the continuous contract ("CL=F continuous").
- Last settle. The latest stored settle.
- vs front month. This contract's settle against that day's front month, in %; "front" when this contract is the nearest delivery.
- Since first settle. The change from the first stored settle to the last, in %.
- Volume. Contracts traded on the last settlement day.
- Last trade. The contract's last trading day from the verified exchange rule, with "in N days" or "trading ended". Hover for the first notice day (or "Cash settled: no delivery notices") and the rule's source. "schedule not verified" when the rule could not be verified.
- Settles stored. How many daily snapshots exist. History starts at the first snapshot we stored; older settles of a contract cannot be recovered.
- Settle history. A line of every stored settle.
- Spread to the front month. The % difference to that day's front month over time, with a zero line (0 = level with the front).
- Where it sits on the <market> curve. The latest curve by delivery month, with this contract marked.
- Stored settles. Every stored day, newest first: Settlement, Settle, vs front (or a "front" tag), Front that day, Volume. Paged.
Hover the charts for values. Page through the settles with the pager.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| "<ROOT>=F continuous" | The continuous contract page, /futures/<ROOT> (Futures contract) |
| Curves on the curve panel | Futures curves, /futures/curve |
| Open the curve monitor (no stored settles yet) | /futures/curve |
A delivery month appears here only after the daily snapshot has stored at least one settle for it.
Futures curves
The shape of every tracked futures curve on one screen: which commodity markets are in contango (later months priced higher) or backwardation (later months priced lower), how steep the step from the front month to the next is, and how that step has moved day by day.
Each futures market lists several delivery months. The front month is the nearest; each later month is a separate contract. When later months settle above the front, the curve is in contango; when they settle below, it is in backwardation. For storable commodities the shape reflects storage, financing and how tight nearby supply is. This page labels a curve from the front to next spread: the next delivery's settle minus the front settle, over the front settle, in %. Above +0.25% reads contango, below -0.25% backwardation, between the two flat. Equity index, Treasury, currency and bitcoin futures price carry (financing against dividends, coupons, the other currency's interest rate, or the bitcoin basis) rather than storage, so for them the page says Next above front ("Above"), Next below front ("Below") or Flat instead, and they are left out of the contango and backwardation counts. The shape describes the market at the latest settlement; it is not a forecast of where prices go.
- Title strip. "Futures curves", "Curve structure across N markets (N commodity, N financial) · latest settlement day · structure, not a forecast".
- Contango / Backwardation / Flat. How many commodity curves are in each state, "of N".
- Deepest backwardation / Steepest contango. The lowest and highest front-to-next spread across the commodity markets, with the market's name.
- Method line. The rules above in one line; hover it for the full method.
- Every curve. One row per market, in sector order (Energy, Metals, Grains, Softs, Index, Rates, FX, Crypto):
- Market: root symbol and name. A check tag marks a data check: either a thin front contract (it traded under a fifth of the next month's volume on the settle day, typical during a roll) or, for Brent, a gap to WTI of the same delivery month beyond $8, which may mean the Brent settles differ from the ICE benchmark. Hover for the detail. A check is about the data, never about the market.
- Sector. State: Contango, Backwd, Flat (or Above, Below, Flat for financial curves). Hover for the rule.
- Front: the front-month settle (hover for its date). F to N: the front-to-next spread, %.
- Chg 1D, Chg 1W or Chg 1M (the window picked with 1D | 1W | 1M on the panel header, 1W by default): how much the front-to-next spread has changed, in percentage points, against the previous stored session (1D), the last settle 7 to 14 days back (1W) or the last settle 30 to 45 days back (1M). "--" when the stored spread history does not reach that far; hover for when it starts. An R after the number means the front contract rolled inside the window, so the two spreads compare different delivery months. Hover a cell for both spreads with their dates. The change is in neutral ink: it is a change in shape, not a good or bad move.
- Roll ann.: the annualised roll yield: the same price step annualised over the months between the two deliveries.
- COT z: the speculator net z-score against its trailing three years, from the latest weekly CFTC report, where we track that market.
- Curve: a sparkline of settle by delivery month, front at left. Spread: a sparkline of the front-to-next spread history ("new" when there is no history yet).
- <Market> curve. The selected market's settle by delivery month, front first, with a marker per month. Two dashed lines show the same market's curve about a week earlier (1W) and about a month earlier (1M), drawn by delivery month, so a month that has since expired sits at the left edge. The legend dates each line (the latest settle, "1W, <day>", "1M, <day>"). Hover a month for its settle, "% vs front" and its change against the 1W curve (or the 1M curve when there is no 1W curve). The panel header gives the root, the state, the number of months, the settle date and the dates of the dashed curves; when the stored history does not reach back a week or a month, it says "1M: not enough history" (or 1W) with the date the history starts.
- Delivery months. The selected market's months: Contract (with a "front" tag), Delivery, Settle, vs front, Vol.
- Front to next spread. The selected market's spread, one point per recorded settlement. Dashed lines mark zero, or the ±0.25% thresholds when the range is narrow enough to read them. Markets added more recently carry history only from the date they were added.
- Click a row on Every curve to chart that market in the three detail panels. The address keeps the market as
?root=<ROOT>, so a bookmark, a shared link or a tab reopens it; without one, the first market is selected. On a phone or tablet, where the board sits above the curve, picking a row scrolls the curve panel into view. - 1D | 1W | 1M on the Every curve header picks the window of the Chg column.
- Alert on the curve panel sets an alert on the selected market. It opens with Front vs next spread crosses already chosen, at a round level near the current spread (near zero, the ±0.25% contango or backwardation threshold on the spread's side); change the level, or pick Curve flips to, then Create alert. See Alerts settings.
- Each list pages with the pager in its panel bar.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A row on Every curve | The same page with that market charted, at ?root=<ROOT> |
| Alert on the curve panel | An alert panel on this page; its Manage in Settings, Alerts link opens /settings/alerts |
| Contract on the curve panel | The continuous contract page, /futures/<ROOT> (Futures contract) |
| A row on Delivery months | That month's page, /futures/<ROOT><M><YY> (Delivery-month contract) |
| A section tab | That futures page |
The Deepest backwardation and Steepest contango tiles name the two commodity markets at either end of the board, so you do not need to scan every row. A curve flipping between contango and backwardation is also logged as an event on Commodity events.
Futures volatility
Which futures markets are unusually quiet or unusually active against their own past year, which are at positioning extremes, and the shape of the equity volatility index curve.
- Title strip. "Futures volatility", "Realised volatility, one-year percentiles and range position across N contracts · compressed first · recorded time · descriptive, not a forecast".
- Compressed. How many contracts have RV20 at or below the 10th percentile of their own trailing year ("N of M").
- Lowest RV20 pctile / Highest RV20 pctile. The contract whose short-term realised volatility sits lowest (or highest) in its own year, with the percentile. Click either to open that contract.
- COT extremes. How many contracts with a tracked CFTC market have a speculator z-score of 2 or more in size, "of N tracked".
- VIX / VIX3M. The ratio of the 30-day to the three-month Cboe volatility index, with the curve's state beneath: Inverted when VIX is more than 2% above VIX3M (options price more volatility over the next 30 days than over three months), Upward sloping when it is more than 2% below (the usual shape), Flat between.
- Method line. Definitions in one line; hover for the full method.
- Which markets are compressed (the board). One row per contract:
- #: rank, compressed first, then by RV20 percentile lowest first.
- Contract, Class (a coloured chip), Last (roll-adjusted continuous settle).
- 52w: position in the 52-week range, 0 to 100, with a small track.
- RV20 and RV60: annualised realised volatility over 20 and 60 sessions.
- RV20 pctile: where today's RV20 sits within its own trailing year (low = compressed).
- ATR14: 14-day average true range as a % of price.
- State: a compressed tag, or "no".
- COT z: the speculator net z-score against its trailing three years, bold at 2 or more either side; "n/a" when untracked.
- Most compressed / Most elevated. The lowest and highest RV20 percentiles, five each, with RV20.
- Positioning extremes. Tracked markets by the size of their COT z, largest first.
- Volatility term structure. The Cboe volatility indexes at their constant maturities (VIX9D 9 days, VIX 30, VIX3M about 93, VIX6M about 184, VIX1Y 365) from daily index closes, plotted by horizon. These are index levels, not VIX futures. The header gives the state, the VIX / VIX3M ratio and VVIX (the volatility of VIX).
- VIX vs VIX3M. Daily closes of both over the stored year. The header counts the sessions the curve sat inverted and the ratio's percentile.
- Sort the board by Rank, RV20, 52w or COT z (largest size first). Missing values sink to the bottom.
- Filter (board bar) matches name, symbol or class.
- Page through the board with its pager.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A board row, a row on the three lists | The contract page, /futures/<ROOT> (Futures contract) |
| The Lowest or Highest RV20 pctile KPI | That contract's page |
| Implied vol on the board | The volatility tab of Greeks exposure, /tools/greeks-exposure?tab=vol (US equity and ETF options, a different universe) |
Compression describes a quiet tape against the market's own year; it can persist or end in either direction. Realised volatility is what prices did; for what options charge for movement, follow the Implied vol link.
Futures seasonality
How each futures contract has moved by calendar month in the stored history, with this month framed, and which contracts have averaged the strongest and weakest returns for this month and the next.
For each contract the page takes month-end to month-end returns from the roll-adjusted daily settles (completed months only), groups them by calendar month and reports the average, the share of years that month closed higher (the hit rate) and the number of years behind each cell. A cell needs at least 3 years; below that it shows "--". A seasonal average describes the past. It says nothing certain about the next occurrence, and a short sample can be dominated by one year.
- Title strip. "Futures seasonality", "Average month-end to month-end return by calendar month across N contracts, months to month · Mon framed · history, not a forecast".
- Higher in <month>. How many contracts averaged a positive return in the current month, among those with 3 or more years of it.
- Highest <month> avg / Lowest <month> avg. The best and worst average for this month, with the contract and "higher N% of Ny".
- Contracts. How many contracts are in the grid, across how many classes. Deepest sample. The most years any single cell carries.
- Energy, Metals, Agriculture, Financial (heat grids). One grid per class: a row per contract, a column per month. Tile tint grows with the size of the average, up to 4 points; within ±0.3 points it is grey. The current month's column is framed in the accent colour. Hover a tile for the average, the hit rate and the years, or "not enough history yet (N years, needs 3)".
- <Month> rank. Contracts by their average for the chosen month, in two sections (the shorter section first): "Averaged higher · highest first" and "At or below zero · lowest first", then contracts with fewer than 3 years of that month, greyed. Columns: <Month> avg, Hit (share of that month finishing higher), Yrs, Best and Worst calendar month for the contract.
- This month / next month tabs on the rank panel switch the month ranked.
- The class grids and the rank list page with their pagers.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A contract name in a grid, a rank row | The contract page, /futures/<ROOT> (Futures contract) |
| A section tab | That futures page |
The contract page shows the current month's seasonal record for that one contract in its Range, volatility and season panel.
Roll calendar
When each tracked futures contract reaches its first notice day or last trading day in the next 60 days, grouped by week, and the exchange rule behind each date.
A futures position in the front month must be closed or rolled into a later month before it expires. Two dates matter: the first notice day (FND), from which the exchange can assign deliveries to holders of physically delivered contracts, and the last trading day (LTD). Cash-settled contracts have no delivery notices. Kresmion computes these dates from each exchange's published contract rule on US exchange business days, and shows a date only when the rule was verified against an exchange source. Check the exchange's own calendar before acting on any date.
- Title strip. "Futures roll calendar", "First notice and last trade dates for the next 60 days across N contracts · computed from each exchange's rule · as of day".
- Next roll. The next verified event across all contracts, for example "CLZ26" with "first notice day 3 days" beneath.
- This week. First notice or last trade events in the current week. Next 60 days. Verified events in the window.
- Rules verified. How many contracts' next roll comes from a verified rule ("N of M"); the rest show no date.
- Next 60 days (panel). Events grouped by week ("This week", "Week of 26 Oct"): Date, Event (an FND or LTD tag), Contract (code and name; hover for the delivery month, exchange and whether it is cash settled or physically delivered), Settles (cash or delivery).
- Every contract. Each root's next first notice or last trade date, whichever comes first, soonest first, then a greyed section "Rule not verified · no date shown". Columns: Contract, Next (the contract code), Event, Date ("not verified" when withheld), In (calendar days; bold at 5 days or fewer), Rule ("LTD verified · FND verified", or which part is not verified, or "no notice before last trade"). Hover the rule for its full text and source.
Both panels page with their pagers. Hover a rule for its wording and source.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| An event row, a contract row | The continuous contract page, /futures/<ROOT> (Futures contract) |
| A section tab | That futures page |
The Roll column on the futures overview and the Roll group on each contract page read the same dates.
Public futures tools
Three futures pages are public and need no account. They are written as explanatory pages: a header with a short context line and a closed How this is computed disclosure (which holds a dated one-paragraph answer and the sources), the data, a full method section, a Cite this data block and a "Read the futures curve in context" box of related reading. When you are signed in, each of these addresses opens the matching signed-in desk instead (shown in its section).
Contango and backwardation monitor
A free look at the curve shape of four markets (crude oil, natural gas, gold and corn): whether each is in contango or backwardation, the front-to-next spread and the annualised roll yield.
- Header. "Contango and backwardation monitor", with the settlement date and "A description of structure, not a forecast."
- One card per market: the name and root symbol, a state badge (CONTANGO in teal, BACKWARDATION in amber, FLAT in grey), an Alert me button and "As of date". Then:
- Front to next spread: next delivery minus front, over front, in % (teal when positive, amber when negative). Contango above +0.25%, backwardation below -0.25%, flat between.
- Annualized roll yield: the ratio of the front settle to the next, raised to the power of 12 over the months between them, minus one, in % (the month gap is floored at one).
- Delivery months: how many are priced.
- A chart of settle by delivery month, then a Spread history strip (one point per recorded settlement; "Single snapshot so far" when there is only one).
- A table: Contract (the front marked "front"), Delivery month, Settle, Volume.
- Every futures curve we track, with a free account. A box right under the first market's card, across the full width, describing the signed-in monitor (the other commodity curves plus equity-index, Treasury, currency and bitcoin futures), with Create a free account and Sign in.
- How this is computed. The full method (the rules above), ending with the statement that the page makes no directional call.
- Alert me opens a small panel to set an alert on that curve: Curve flips to (backwardation, contango or flat) or Front vs next spread crosses a level you type, in %. It shows the current reading first. Signed out, it offers Google or email sign-in and creates the alert once you are signed in, then brings you back. See Alerts settings.
- Full method in the header jumps to the method section.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| Create a free account / Sign in in the continuation box | Sign-up or sign-in, then back to /tools/futures-curve, which then opens /futures/curve |
| Alert me, then Manage in Settings, Alerts | /settings/alerts |
| Links in "Read the futures curve in context" | A learn article on contango, /tools/futures-curve, /tools/cot-positioning, /tools/futures-seasonality |
When one of these four curves moves between contango, flat and backwardation, the change is also recorded in the commodity event feed.
Futures seasonality (public)
A free calendar-month table of how each tracked futures contract has moved, month by month.
- Header. "Futures seasonality", with the coverage window ("from to to (about N years)"). A Heads up banner appears while the history covers fewer than three years.
- The grid. One row per contract (name and class), one column per month, then Best / Worst (the contract's strongest and weakest calendar month as chips). Each cell is the average month-end to month-end return for that calendar month; green when positive, red when negative, deeper for larger averages. The current month's column is outlined. Cells with fewer than 3 years show a dash. Hover a cell for the average, the share of positive years and the years.
- On a narrow screen the grid does not scroll sideways: it shows one window of consecutive months that holds the current month (starting the month before it where the year allows), six months on a tablet and four on a phone, and a line above it says which, for example "<month> to <month> on this screen. The other 8 months and each market's best and worst month show on a wider screen." On a phone the Best / Worst column is hidden, and on both the class beside each name is hidden.
- Continuation box. "Open <contract> in the futures terminal", describing the contract page.
- How this is computed. These are front-month continuous series stitched from the active contract, so a month that spans a contract roll includes the roll gap. (The signed-in desk uses roll-adjusted settles, so its averages can differ.)
- Read the futures curve in context. The same related-reading box as on the curve monitor.
Hover cells. Full method jumps to the method.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| The continuation box buttons | Sign-up or sign-in, then the named contract page, /futures/<ROOT> |
The contract named in the continuation box is the one the dated answer sentence leads with.
Futures volatility and squeeze (public)
A free table of realised volatility across the tracked futures, with markets in a volatility compression flagged.
- Header. "Futures volatility and squeeze". A Heads up banner appears when the latest settlement is old.
- A line counting how many markets are in a volatility compression (20-day realised volatility in the bottom decile of its own year).
- The table. Contract (name and symbol), Class, RV 20d, RV 60d, RV20 1y percentile (with a bar), ATR14 %, Flag (COMPRESSED or a dash). Markets in a compression come first. On a narrow screen (a phone or a tablet) each market is a two-line row: the contract and the flag on the first line, RV 20d, RV 60d, RV20 1y percentile and ATR14 % on the second, under the same headers; the class is left out, and nothing scrolls sideways.
- Open <market> in the futures terminal. An account box right under the table, naming the table's first market, with Create a free account and Sign in: a free account opens that contract's page (its price chart, realised volatility and squeeze flag, its average return for the current calendar month, speculative positioning where the CFTC reports it, and the events recorded on it).
- How this is computed. Realised volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns over 20 or 60 sessions, annualised by the square root of 252. The percentile places today's 20-day reading within its own trailing year of rolling 20-day values: low means unusually quiet against its own recent range, high unusually active. Compressed means a percentile of 10 or below. A return that spans a contract roll includes the roll gap.
- The implied side of the same question. A block linking the volatility tab of the greeks page for US equities and ETFs.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| Options volatility structure for US equities and ETFs | Greeks exposure, volatility tab, /tools/greeks-exposure?tab=vol |
| Create a free account / Sign in (account box) | Sign-up or sign-in, then the named market's contract page, /futures/<ROOT> (Futures contract) |
Compression can persist or resolve in either direction; the page makes no directional call.
Commodities
The commodities pages sit under Markets › Commodities: an overview, a data page with CFTC positioning, the event feed and EIA inventories. All four need a free account. Typing the code CMDTY in Cmd-K, or going to /commodities, opens the overview.
Two things appear on every commodities page:
- OSINT alert strip. When an open-source intelligence alert concerns the page you are on, a thin strip under the top bar shows "OSINT ALERT", the alert text and its age. Read → opens the OSINT feed (
/intel/osint); × hides that alert for the rest of the browser session. - INTEL tab. A tab fixed to the right edge opens a slide-out panel of intelligence events related to the page, with a count badge when there are any. Whether it is open is remembered for the commodities section.
The quotes on these pages come from a front-month futures snapshot rewritten about every 5 minutes, so they can be newer than the daily settles on the futures desk.
Commodities overview
One screen that answers "what are commodities doing right now": the front-month quote board by complex, three cross-commodity ratios, where speculators stand in five key markets, and a written summary of the last day's commodity events and reports.
- Title strip. "Commodities", the number of front-month quotes, "energy, metals, agriculture" and the snapshot time. On the right: Inventories, Data, Futures curves, Physical intelligence and Refresh.
- Up / down. Board quotes with a 1D change above and below zero, "of N".
- Energy 1D, Metals 1D, Agriculture 1D. The unweighted mean 1D change of each complex's quotes (green or red outside ±0.1%).
- Board 1D mean. The unweighted mean of every quote on the board, with the 1W mean beside it.
- What moved today. The quote board in three sections: Energy (WTI crude, Brent, natural gas), Metals (gold, silver, copper) and Agriculture (corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee, cocoa), showing the quotes the snapshot carries. Columns: Commodity (name and symbol), Last, Unit (for example $/bbl), 1D, 1W (flat inside ±0.25%), 30d (a sparkline of the last 30 daily settles from the futures history).
- Cross-commodity ratios. Three ratios from the same quotes, each with a 1D change computed from the implied prior prices:
- Gold / silver: ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys.
- Copper / gold x1000: copper ($/lb) over gold ($/oz), times 1,000.
- WTI minus Brent: US crude against seaborne crude, $/bbl (its change is in points).
- Hover a ratio for what it is. A ratio describes a relationship between two prices; it is not a prediction.
- Speculative positioning. CFTC Commitments of Traders for gold, silver, copper, WTI crude and natural gas, dated "week of day": a zero-centred bar and Net % OI (the non-commercial net as a share of open interest; flat inside ±1%), z 3y (the z-score of that net share of open interest against its trailing three years, 156 weekly reports; bold at 2 or more either side) and Flag ("long extreme" or "short extreme" when the COT detector flagged the latest report). A row whose report is older than the others says so on hover.
- Commodity intelligence. A pre-written summary of the last 24 hours of commodity events and external reports, with the day it was generated and the counts it was based on. The text is cut to the panel; Full text opens it in a dialog.
- Refresh reloads the quotes and the 30-day lines.
- Hide on the intelligence panel stops the brief from loading; the panel then shows Load the brief. This choice is remembered in your browser.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A quote row | The price chart, /chart/commodity/<SYMBOL> |
| All futures on the board, or "+N more quotes" | Commodity futures, /futures/commodities |
| Futures curves (title strip) | Futures curves, /futures/curve |
| Inventories | Commodity inventories |
| Data, All COT, or any positioning row | Commodity data, /commodities/data |
| Physical intelligence | The environmental monitor, /intel/satellite |
| Full text | A dialog on this page |
The z 3y column here is the same figure as 3y z on Commodity data and on COT positioning. The futures pages show the same CFTC field under the label COT z, also against three years.
Commodity data
The full CFTC positioning table for every tracked futures market (commodities first, then financial futures), beside the snapshot quotes, with a short reading guide.
- Title strip. "Commodity data", "CFTC Commitments of Traders for every tracked market · week of day · front-month snapshot quotes".
- Markets tracked. Markets in the CFTC feed and the report date.
- Speculators net long. Markets where large speculators hold more long than short contracts, "N of M".
- Detector flags. Markets whose latest net position the COT detector flagged as extreme.
- |3y z| >= 2. Markets whose speculator share of open interest is 2 or more standard deviations from its three-year mean.
- Snapshot quotes. Commodity, Sym, Unit, Last, 1D, 1W for every quote in the 5-minute snapshot.
- Who is positioned where. One row per market, in two sections, Commodities and Financial futures:
- Spec net: non-commercial (speculator) long minus short, contracts (green when net long, red when net short).
- % OI: the speculator net over open interest, which makes markets of different sizes comparable.
- 3y z: that share against its three-year mean, in standard deviations (σ), bold at 2 or more either side.
- Comm net: commercial (hedger) net position. Open int: open interest.
- Flag: "long extreme" or "short extreme" from the COT detector. Report: the report date.
- A row whose report is older than the page's latest says so on hover.
- How to read these tables. Definitions of each column, and the reminder that positions are as of Tuesday and released on Friday, so every figure lags by a few days.
- Sort the markets with |z| (most stretched first, either side; the default), % OI (most net long to most net short) or Market (A to Z). Commodities stay above financial futures whatever the order.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A positioning row | That market on the COT desk, /capital-flows/cot?market=<MARKET> (COT positioning) |
| COT desk, "+N more markets on the COT desk", the Markets tracked KPI | /capital-flows/cot |
For a market's weekly history and its three-year index, open it on COT positioning. Stretched positioning describes crowding; it can persist or unwind.
Commodity events
The latest events the detector recorded on commodity data, newest first, with what each one measured.
- Header. "Commodity events", a line with how many of the latest events are loaded, how long ago the newest arrived and "detector runs every 15 minutes", and section pills: Overview, Data, Inventories, Events, Futures.
- Critical, High, Medium, Low. How many of the latest events carry each severity (event severity).
- What the detector flagged. The feed, grouped by UTC day. Each item has a severity badge, the asset symbol and headline, then the event type, "value x" and "threshold y" (what it saw and the line it crossed), "AI reviewed" when a reviewer pass ran, the data source and a body you can expand with Show more.
- By type. A count of the latest events by type.
- What an event is. An event comes from a rule the detector evaluates on the commodity data it holds: a large daily move, a speculative-positioning extreme, a futures curve flipping between contango and backwardation, or an energy event from open sources. It describes what happened, not what comes next.
- Refresh reloads the feed. It also refreshes by itself every 15 minutes.
- Severity pills (All, Critical, High, Medium, Low, each with its count) filter the feed.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A section pill | That commodities page; Futures opens /futures/commodities |
| Sources | /settings/data-sources at the commodities family |
Feed items are not links. To read a flagged contract, open it from the futures overview; every commodity event across all asset classes is also on the main event feed.
Commodity inventories
Where US oil, product and natural gas stocks sit against the usual level for the same week of the year, from the EIA weekly reports, and how each series has moved over the past year.
- Title strip. "Commodity inventories", "EIA weekly stocks, N series · latest week day · levels, not a forecast".
- KPI strip. The first four series (for example crude oil, natural gas), each with its latest level and unit and, as the change figure, its deviation from the five-year average for the same calendar week (green above, red below, flat within ±1%). Hover for the EIA week and the five-year average itself.
- EIA prints. One line under the KPI strip. "Next:" gives the day and time (UTC) of the next petroleum release, with the crude consensus, and of the next natural gas release, with its consensus. "Last:" gives the last crude and natural gas prints against their consensus, each with its day. Crude in millions of barrels, gas in Bcf. From the economic calendar (Macro calendar); the consensus is a published forecast, not a Kresmion estimate.
- Where stocks sit against the usual week. Every series: Series, EIA id, Week of, Latest, Unit, Wk chg (week-on-week change in the series' unit), Cons. (for crude, gasoline, distillate and natural gas: the consensus for that week's change, in the series' unit, from the calendar; hover for the reported change against it, or "No EIA print on the calendar for the week of …"), 5y avg (five-year average for the same calendar week), vs 5y (the latest level against that average, %). Comparing to the same week strips out the normal seasonal pattern of stocks. The crude, gasoline, distillate and natural gas rows open the futures they move (the panel header says "a row opens its futures page").
- One chart per series. The last 52 weekly levels. A short dotted tick at the latest week marks that week's five-year average; the source gives no five-year path through the year, so no full line is drawn. Hover for the week.
- How the EIA publishes (title strip) opens a dialog: petroleum stocks are published on Wednesday and natural gas on Thursday, each for the week ending the prior Friday; how the deviation is computed.
- Chart another inventory series: the last chart slot has a picker for any series not already charted.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| The crude oil, gasoline, distillate or natural gas row | The futures it moves: /futures/CL, /futures/RB, /futures/HO or /futures/NG (Futures contract) |
| CL futures →, NG futures →, RB futures →, HO futures → (table header) | /futures/CL, /futures/NG, /futures/RB, /futures/HO |
The dialog and the chart picker stay on the page.
A positive vs 5y means stocks are above the usual level for the time of year. Levels and deviations describe what was reported; they are not a directional call. The contract pages for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil and natural gas carry the same next release on their Next print line.
Positioning
These pages describe who holds what: large speculators and hedgers in futures (CFTC), the primary dealers in US government and agency debt (New York Fed), daily short-sale flow (FINRA short volume) and outstanding short positions (FINRA short interest). The public tools sit under Tools › Positioning & Flows; short interest and the signed-in COT desk sit under Data › Capital Flows.
Short volume and short interest are different datasets and answer different questions. Short volume is one day of selling flow reported off exchange, much of it market-maker hedging. Short interest is the outstanding short position at a settlement date, published twice a month. A high short-volume ratio does not mean a stock is heavily shorted.
CFTC COT positioning (public tool)
A free table of where large speculators and commercials sit across the tracked CFTC futures markets, and how stretched speculator positioning is against its own three-year range.
- Header. "CFTC COT positioning", "Large speculators and commercials across N futures markets. CFTC week of date (N days ago)." A coverage line states how many markets the tool covers. A Heads up banner appears when the latest release on file is more than 14 days old.
- The table. One row per market:
- Market, with a small bell to set an alert on it.
- Open Interest, Commercial (hedger) Net, Speculator Net (contracts).
- Spec Net WoW: the change in the speculator net from the prior release (teal when up, amber when down: a change in positioning, not a price call).
- Spec % of OI: the speculator net as a share of open interest.
- 3y COT Index: the speculator net rescaled to 0 to 100 within its own three-year range, drawn as a bar.
- 3y z-score: the speculator share of open interest minus its three-year mean, over its three-year standard deviation (the current week excluded from its own baseline), in sigma.
- 52w trend: a sparkline of the speculator net over the last 52 reports.
- Positioning: words from the z-score: "speculators stretched long (>2 sigma)" or "(>2.5 sigma)" at 2 or more (or "short"), "leaning long of its 3-year range" at 1 or more, "within its 3-year range" otherwise, "no 3-year baseline yet" when history is short. Stretched rows are highlighted in the accent colour.
- Follow positioning extremes in your event feed. A box: when a market reaches 2 sigma or more, Kresmion records a positioning event from that week's CFTC report. A free account opens the event feed, and event alerts can be switched on in the account settings.
- How to read this. Commercials are hedgers (producers and users of the underlying); non-commercials are large speculators (funds); the report is published every Friday for positions held the prior Tuesday.
- The bell beside a market opens the alert panel with two conditions: Speculators stretched versus their 3-year range (choose stretched long or short and a z level) and Speculator net position flips sign. Signed out, it signs you in first and comes back.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| The continuation box buttons | Sign-up or sign-in, then the event feed, /signals |
| Links in "Read the futures curve in context" | Learn articles and the other public futures tools |
Signed in, use COT positioning for sorting, a market's weekly chart and its full report history.
Primary dealer positions
How the primary dealers (the roughly two dozen banks and broker-dealers that trade US government securities directly with the New York Fed) are positioned, week by week, in Treasuries, agency debt, agency mortgage-backed securities and corporate debt, from the New York Fed's FR2004 statistics.
Each week the dealers report their net outright positions (long holdings minus short holdings) by asset class. A positive value means dealers are net long that asset; a negative value means net short. The New York Fed publishes with roughly a nine-day lag. This is the closest public proxy for dealer positioning; it is not prime-brokerage desk data, and it is not a call on any market.
- Header. "Primary dealer positions", "Weekly net outright positions by asset class, New York Fed FR2004. Week of date (N days ago)." A Heads up banner appears when the latest week is more than 21 days old.
- One card per asset class: the latest net position in $ billions (amber when negative) and the week-over-week change ("+$1.2B WoW").
- The weekly table. Week (latest highlighted), one column per asset class, Total, about 14 weeks.
- What this is, and what it is not. The explanation above, with the source line.
- Title strip. "Primary dealer positions", "NY Fed FR2004 net outright positions · week of date (Nd ago)", and the reminder that it is a public proxy, not prime-brokerage data.
- KPI strip. One tile per class (Treasury, Agency & GSE, Agency MBS, Corporate) and a Total, each with the net position and its change on the prior week.
- Net positions by asset class. One small chart per class, each on its own scale so the Treasury book does not flatten the smaller classes. Hovering one week marks it on all four charts.
- By asset class. Latest, 1W change, the change over the weeks held (14W), Low and High over the period.
- Weekly positions. The weekly table, newest first, latest week tinted. Paged.
- Changes are green or red only beyond $50M; class colours only identify the class.
- Signed in: What this is, and what it is not (title strip) opens the method in a dialog. Hover or use the arrow keys on the charts to step through weeks.
No links leave the page besides Sources.
Dealer positioning moves slowly and describes inventory, not intent. Treasury auction results are on the Treasury auctions tool, /tools/treasury-auctions.
Off-exchange short volume
Each day's FINRA Reg SHO off-exchange short-sale volume for covered US stocks and ETFs: what share of each symbol's off-exchange volume was sold short, and how unusual that share is for the symbol itself.
The short-volume ratio is short-sale volume over total off-exchange volume reported to FINRA facilities (TRF and ADF) for that symbol and day; a 60% ratio means 60 of every 100 reported shares were sold short. It includes market-maker hedging (a wholesaler selling short to fill a buy order counts), and it is off-exchange volume only, not the whole market. The deviation (z, in σ) compares today's ratio with the symbol's own trailing 20-session mean and standard deviation: inside 1 is ordinary for that symbol, 2 notable, 3 rare. It needs at least 10 stored sessions and a non-zero spread, otherwise it is "Not measured". Daily change is in percentage points (60% to 65% is +5.0 pp). A high ratio alone does not indicate conviction or a short squeeze.
- Header. "Off-exchange short volume", "FINRA Reg SHO daily short-sale volume for covered US stocks and ETFs, session of date. Short volume is daily trading flow, including market-maker hedging, not short interest."
- Symbols covered / Above the volume floor / Median short-volume ratio. The day's coverage, how many symbols cleared the liquidity floor (a minimum off-exchange volume, stated in shares) and the median ratio among them.
- A warning appears when the latest file is more than four days old.
- Daily activity. The board, with a note on the current order. Columns: Company / symbol, Short-volume ratio (with a bar), Ratio deviation, Daily change pp, Short volume, Off-exchange volume. "Not measured" cells say why on hover.
- Understanding the numbers. The definitions above, the FINRA attribution and the expected date of the next file.
- Search ticker (type and Search) finds symbols beginning with what you typed, including symbols below the volume floor. Clear removes the search.
- Highest deviation (the default, above the floor) or Highest ratio (every symbol, including thinly traded ones, where tiny volumes can produce extreme ratios).
- Previous / Next page through the board (the line beside them shows which rows of how many symbols you are on). The search, order and page are in the address, so a view can be shared.
- Title strip. "Off-exchange short volume", "FINRA Reg SHO · trading day date · N symbols in the source file, N above the N share floor". Method jumps to the method panel.
- Mean ratio, Median ratio (with one standard deviation across symbols), Symbols shown (what the filters match, of all covered), Liquidity floor (the day's own median off-exchange volume, and how many thin names it hides, or "off"), Next FINRA file (expected date and how old the latest is; a file three or four days old is normal for this feed).
- Short volume is not short interest. A standing caveat line.
- Where today's ratios sit. A histogram of the day's ratios above the floor, each bar holding a tenth of the symbols (so height shows how tightly that tenth is packed), with the median dashed and the open symbol marked.
- Moved most since the prior session / Moved most over five sessions. The four largest rises and falls in the ratio (percentage points) among symbols above the floor. The change is red or green by sign; the tag beside it is today's ratio, washed gold when above the symbol's own mean and fuchsia when below, once it is 1 standard deviation or more away.
- <Symbol>: ratio against its own mean (opens when you pick a symbol). The symbol's stored ratio history with its own mean and a ±1 standard deviation band, then a facts panel: ratio today, own 20-day mean, own spread, z, 1 and 5 session changes, off-exchange volume, exempt share (short volume marked exempt from the Reg SHO price test, largely market making), sessions stored, and a bar splitting the day's off-exchange volume into short and exempt. Close hides it.
- Daily activity (board). # (position across every page), Symbol, Name, Short ratio (washed gold or fuchsia by its z band), Sector, Off-exch vol, z, 1 session, 5 sessions, Exempt, Ratio 49d (sparkline). A column with no value on the current view is hidden and named under the board. A legend explains the wash bands (1, 2 and 3 standard deviations).
- Understanding the numbers and Methodology and source panels.
- Order the board by z, Ratio, 1 sess, 5 sess or Volume; High first / Low first reverses it.
- Floor: at least N shares (on, the default) or Include thin names.
- Sector: any sector present that day, or Every sector.
- Symbol: type a ticker and press Enter or Find; Clear <SYMBOL> removes it.
- Click a board row or a mover to open its detail; click it again to close.
- The ordering, floor, sector, open symbol (
?sym=) and page are all in the address, so the exact view can be shared.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A row or mover (signed in) | The same page with that symbol's detail open (?sym=<SYMBOL>) |
| The continuation box (public) | Sign-up or sign-in, then this page, opened on the leading symbol's history when one is named |
| "Reload the latest snapshot" / "Clear search and view all results" | /tools/short-volume |
For outstanding short positions against float, use Short interest. Symbols are not links to company pages here.
Short interest
Which US-listed names carry the largest short positions against their float, how long those positions would take to cover, how they changed since the last settlement, and what has happened to price, volume and short-sale flow since the position was measured.
FINRA publishes consolidated short interest twice a month, as of a settlement date, with a publication lag. % of float divides the short position by a float Kresmion derives from SEC filings: shares outstanding less the affiliate holdings we can observe (Section 16 insiders and affiliate 13D/G blocks; passive index filers stay in the float). Affiliates we have not observed are still inside the denominator, so the float is an upper bound and the percentage a lower bound: the true figure is at or above the one shown (the leading ≥). % of shs out divides by all shares outstanding, needs no affiliate data and is always the smaller ratio. Days to cover is FINRA's own ratio of the short position to average daily volume.
- Title strip. "Short interest", "FINRA consolidated short interest, twice-monthly settlements · % of float where a float can be derived, a lower bound", with the controls on the right.
- With % of float / Shs out only / No denominator. Over every shorted name in the latest settlement: how many have a float percentage, how many only a shares-outstanding ratio (no affiliate data), and how many neither. Shorted names: the universe.
- Settled. The settlement date and how many days old it is (hover for FINRA's publication lag). Next publication (or Publication due, "due, not stored yet"): FINRA's next scheduled publication.
- Shorted names (the table). The top 200 rows of the chosen ranking, paged to fit. Each "?" in a header opens an explainer. Columns (the column tabs choose which show):
- Ticker. Short shares (FINRA's reported position).
- % of float, with confidence bars after the value (three filled is high confidence, one low). A blank shows a reason token instead: NO AFFIL DATA (no ownership filings read, so only % of shares outstanding is published), PRIOR PERIOD (float is derived for the newest settlement only), MULTI-CLASS (no class-specific share count), NO FLOAT LEFT (observed affiliates hold the whole count), DENOM REJECTED (the share count was too old or smaller than the short position), NO SHARE DATA. A blank is unknown, never zero.
- Float (the derived float, an upper bound). % of shs out ("NO SHARE COUNT" when there is none).
- D/C: days to cover. FINRA caps the value at 999.99 for two reasons: a real ratio past the cap reads ">999.99"; a name with no volume reads "NOT MEASURABLE". Neither enters a ranking as an extreme.
- WoW: change in the short position against the prior settlement.
- Since: price change from the settlement date to the latest close. Blank when either end is missing; refused when the price jumps fourfold or more inside the window (a split, not a move).
- Rel vol: average daily volume since settlement over the 30 days before (above 1 = trading heavier).
- Short flow: FINRA daily short-sale share of off-exchange volume since the settlement, and its change in points against the window before.
- Trend: a sparkline of short shares across every stored settlement (a direction only).
- Pressure: how many of five named conditions hold, out of five (a count, not a squeeze score; cost to borrow and utilisation are not available here).
- Catalysts: counts with their windows: insider buys and sells over 90 days (B/S), affiliate 13D/G blocks, congressional disclosures over 90 days (CG) and days to the next scheduled earnings (E). "quiet" means every lane was checked and holds nothing; "quiet?" means the affiliate lane could not be checked.
- Settled (date). Signal: SURGE or DROP when the detector flagged a large change in the position.
- →: the company page.
- Rankings. Four top-five boards, as tabs: Crowded (highest % of float), Builds (largest WoW increases), Cover (largest decreases), Exits (most days to cover). A superlative says which end of a ranking a name sits on, never what to do about it.
- Pressure conditions. The five conditions with their rules and how many fetched rows meet each: CROWDED (at or above 20% of the derived float), SLOW EXIT (5 or more days to cover), PRICE AGAINST (up 10% or more since settlement), THIN FLOAT (fewer than 50 million shares in the derived float), VOLUME (1.5x or more of pre-settlement average volume). A missing input reads the same as a false condition.
- Coverage. Over every shorted name in the latest settlement: the three nested tiers with counts and shares, why floats are missing (by reason) and how to read each token.
- Map (column tab). A crowding map of the same rows: % of float across, days to cover up, with the 20% and 5-day thresholds drawn; builds are filled discs and covers hollow rings. Names with a capped days to cover are left off and counted above the plot.
- Settlement detail (opens when you pick a row). A drawer with the row's figures (position, prior settlement, denominators, drift, flow) and an AI-written summary, "Why it may matter" and context, marked "AI-generated from the row above; check the filing before relying on it."
- Rank by (title strip): % of float (the default; names with no float sort last), Days to cover, WoW move (positions under 50,000 shares sort after the material ones) or Newest. The ranking decides which 200 rows arrive.
- Tradeable only (on by default) keeps issuers above $300M market cap and $5 a share, and shows how many rows it excludes. Click to include everything.
- Search ticker filters the 200 rows; a ticker outside them is looked up across every settlement and its own history is shown. Escape clears it.
- Column tabs: Position, Since, All (the default on very wide screens) or Map.
- Click a pressure condition to filter the table to rows that meet it; selecting several combines them (AND). Click again to remove.
- Click a row (or a ranking row) to open the settlement detail; Escape or the backdrop closes it.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A table row, a ranking row, a map mark | The settlement detail drawer on this page |
| The → at the end of a row | The company page, /companies/<TICKER> (Company page) |
| A pressure condition | The table filtered to that condition |
Read % of float together with Since and Short flow: a heavy short position on a name that has since risen describes pressure on the shorts, the same number on a name that has fallen describes the position working; neither is a forecast. FINRA publishes consolidated short interest for exchange-listed and OTC equities only, so funds outside that scope are not on record.
Options desk
The options desk sits under Markets › Options: an overview and boards for IV rank, put/call ratios, max pain and unusual activity, plus the modeled greeks exposure and implied probability tools (which also appear under Tools › Positioning & Flows). Every page is built from end-of-day snapshots of US listed options chains for a fixed universe of large stocks and ETFs, captured after the US close. A session we did not capture stays missing; it is never filled from a neighbouring day.
Every options page is public. When you are signed in, the same address opens a terminal desk with the same figures plus, on some pages, more: the IV level on the IV rank board, strikes on unusual activity, the full greeks suite. Both versions carry one tab row for the section: Overview, IV rank, Put/call, Max pain, Unusual activity, Greeks, Implied probability.
None of these figures is a signed move, so the boards use category colours, never green and red: indigo for implied volatility, cyan and violet for put/call, amber for max pain, pink for unusual activity.
How to read options data
The options pages use a small vocabulary. Each term below is read the way these pages compute it. All of them describe where options volume, open interest and implied volatility sit; none is a view on where the underlying goes.
- Implied volatility (IV). The volatility an option's price implies, annualised, in %. The desk's headline IV is the 30-day at-the-money figure: the listed expiry nearest 30 days (inside 14 to 60 days), at the strike nearest spot.
- IV rank. Where today's 30-day IV sits between the lowest (0) and highest (100) readings we have stored for that name. IV percentile is the share of stored sessions with a lower reading. Both need 60 stored sessions and cover only the sessions we hold, never a full year, so a newly added name shows "building history". A high rank means options on that name are expensive against their own stored range; it says nothing about direction.
- Term structure. At-the-money IV plotted by days to expiry. Normally later expiries carry higher IV; a front that sits above the back usually reflects a known event (earnings, a data release) inside the near expiry.
- Skew (25-delta). Put IV minus call IV at the 25-delta strikes for one expiry, in vol points. Positive means puts are priced richer than calls, which is the usual state for equity indexes because puts are bought as protection.
- Implied against realized. The 30-day IV beside the 20-session realised volatility from daily closes. When implied is above realised, options charge more than the stock has been moving. A large negative gap often means the trailing window still contains an event, such as an earnings gap, that the forward window no longer prices.
- Put/call ratio. Put volume over call volume for a session across every listed expiry; the open interest ratio is the same over open interest. A put is bought to hedge as often as to bet on a fall, so a high ratio describes where volume went, not which way anyone expects the price to go. A session under 1,000 contracts is marked low volume.
- Max pain. The listed strike at which the total intrinsic value owed to option holders at expiry would be smallest, from each strike's open interest. It describes where open interest sits; it is not a target or a forecast.
- Unusual activity. A contract whose volume in one session was many times the open interest it started the day with. A trade can open or close a position, and the side that initiated it is not known.
- GEX (gamma exposure). A model of the dollar gamma dealers would carry, per 1% move in the underlying, under one assumption: dealers are net long the call open interest and short the put open interest. Positive net GEX (long gamma) means modeled hedging tends to dampen moves; negative (short gamma) means it tends to amplify them. It is an estimate, not observed dealer data.
- Zero-gamma flip. The price at which modeled net gamma changes sign. Below it the modeled hedging pressure flips. When there is no sign change inside the modeled range, no level is shown.
- Walls. The call wall is searched above spot and the put wall below it, within ±20% of the strike nearest spot. The headline wall is the gamma-weighted strike (where modeled dollar gamma is heaviest on that side); the open-interest wall (the strike with the most open interest) is shown beside it. The two often disagree on the put side because deep out-of-the-money puts pile up open interest as tail hedges.
- The other greeks. DEX: modeled dollar delta. VEX: dollar vega per volatility point; vanna (how delta shifts as IV moves) and vomma (how vega changes as IV moves) are shown with it. TEX: theta, the premium the book decays by per calendar day. CEX: charm, how delta decays per day. Speed and zomma: how the gamma profile itself moves with spot and with IV, so how quickly today's flip level can migrate.
- Implied probability. The risk-neutral distribution an expiry's option prices imply. It includes the risk premium investors pay for protection, so it is a pricing of uncertainty, not a forecast; tails are usually priced higher than they turn out.
Options overview
The headline readings of the last options session on one page: the universe put/call ratio, which names have implied volatility at the top or bottom of their own range, max pain for the index and macro ETFs, and how many contracts traded unusually.
- Header. "Options", "What US listed options showed in the last session…", the section pills and a closed disclosure holding the dated answer sentence and the method lines.
- Put/call volume, all names (with the open interest ratio), Names with an IV rank ("N of M", with the 60 sessions needed), Unusual activity (contracts on the board and the session) and Session.
- Highest IV rank / Lowest IV rank. Names nearest the top and the bottom of their own stored range.
- Highest put/call volume / Lowest put/call volume. Puts traded per call traded, highest and lowest.
- Max pain: index and macro ETFs. Each ETF's max pain for its next monthly expiry, with its distance from spot.
- More options tools. Links to unusual activity, greeks exposure and implied probability, each with a one-line description.
- Method and Cite this data close the page.
"Options", "US listed options, session of date". The KPI strip shows P/C volume for all names, ETFs and stocks (each with its open interest ratio), Names with an IV rank and Unusual activity. The same six panels follow, as compact tables with tinted tiles: IV rank on an indigo scale (deeper = nearer the top of its range), put/call cyan where puts outweigh calls and violet where calls do, max pain distance amber (deeper = farther from spot).
Every panel links to its full board. Signed in, each KPI and each table row opens the board too.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| IV rank board / Board on an IV panel, an IV row (signed in), the IV KPI | IV rank, /tools/options-iv-rank |
| Put/call board / Board on a put/call panel, a put/call row or KPI | Put/call ratios, /tools/options-put-call |
| Max pain board / Board, a max pain row | Max pain, /tools/options-max-pain |
| Unusual options activity, the Unusual activity KPI | Unusual options activity |
| Greeks exposure | Greeks exposure |
| Implied probability | Implied probability |
Rows on the public overview are not links; use the panel's board link.
IV rank
Where each name's 30-day implied volatility sits within the readings we have stored for it (IV rank), so you can see which names' options are priced near the top or bottom of their own range.
- Header. "IV rank", with the definition in the context line.
- Names ranked ("N of M", with the sessions needed), Highest in its range, Lowest in its range (ticker and rank) and Session.
- IV rank by name. Name (ticker, name, and a marker for ETF or single stock), IV rank (a tinted tile, indigo deepening toward 100), IV percentile, Sessions held (with the first stored date), Note (why a name has no rank: "building history: N of 60 sessions stored", "no range yet: every stored reading is the same", "last reading is older than the latest session").
All / ETFs / Single stocks pills; a Filter by ticker or name box; click a column header to sort.
- "IV rank", "30-day implied volatility in its own stored range · date".
- IV rank by name. Name, Rank, Pctile, IV 30d (the level, signed in only), 1D (change in vol points), Sessions. Names without a rank are greyed; hover for why. The panel header notes "IV level shown (signed in)".
- <Ticker> · <name> detail: IV rank, IV percentile, sessions stored, since, and signed in the IV 30d with its days to expiry, the 1-day change, the front-month IV and the stored range (low to high), then the method line.
All / ETFs / Stocks segments; page through with the pager; click a row to load its detail.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A row (signed in) | That name's detail on this page |
| "<TICKER> term structure and skew" (signed in) | The volatility tab of Greeks exposure, /tools/greeks-exposure?ticker=<TICKER>&tab=vol, open on that name. Signed out, the volatility tab asks you to create a free account. |
A rank needs 60 stored sessions, so recently added names rank later; the Sessions column tells you how deep each range is.
Put/call ratios
Puts traded per call traded, and put open interest per call open interest, for each name and across the universe, with the history of either (Put/call ratio).
- Aggregates. The volume and open interest ratios for All names, ETFs and Single stocks, each summing the put and call legs across names first.
- Put/call history: <All names or ticker>. Every stored session: the volume ratio and the open interest ratio, with a dashed line at 1 (as many puts as calls).
- Put/call by name. Name, Volume ratio and Open interest ratio as tinted tiles: cyan where puts outweigh calls, violet where calls do, grey near 1 (log scale, capped at 4 times either way). A dimmed volume tile means fewer than 1,000 contracts traded that session.
- Signed in the aggregates sit in a Universe totals panel with the method note.
- Chart: pick All names, ETFs or Single stocks for the history. Public: the chart link on a row charts that name ("charted" when selected). Signed in: click a row.
- All / ETFs / Single stocks (or Stocks) filter the name table. Public: a filter box and sortable headers. Signed in: the pager.
- Hover the chart (or use the arrow keys) for a session's values.
Rows and chart controls stay on this page.
Compare a name's ratio with its own history rather than with other names: some names carry structurally high put volume because they are used for hedging.
Max pain
For each name, the strike at which its listed options would pay their holders the least at expiry, and how far that strike sits from the last stored price (Max pain).
- Max pain by name. Each name's next monthly expiry (or its nearest listed one): Name, Expiry (with days to it), Max pain (the strike), From spot (the strike against the stored spot, %, as an amber tile that deepens with distance up to 10%).
- Every stored expiry. Public: a row with more than one expiry shows "N expiries"; it opens a panel "<TICKER>: max pain by expiry" with one tile per expiry. Signed in: the <TICKER> · every stored expiry panel beside the table (SPY by default) lists Expiry, Days, Max pain and From spot, then the method.
All / ETFs / Single stocks filters. Public: filter box, sortable headers, N expiries / hide expiries, close. Signed in: click a row to load its expiries; the pager pages the table.
Rows stay on this page.
Max pain moves as open interest changes each session; it describes where open interest sits, not where the price is headed.
Unusual options activity
The option contracts that traded far above the open interest they started the session with, largest estimated premium first.
- The rule (Method panel): more than 2,000 contracts traded, more than 5 times the open interest at the start of the session, more than 2 days to expiry, and an estimated premium above $250k. Open interest in the chain is the prior session's, so "Vol / prior OI" reads "traded N times the open interest it started the day with"; "new" means there was none. Estimated premium is volume times the last price times 100, shown as a bucket ($250k to 1M, $1M to 5M, $5M+). Sessions where most busy contracts carry no open interest are a capture problem and are not listed.
- Contracts listed, Names, Calls, Puts (signed in: Contracts, Names, Calls, Puts in the KPI strip).
- Largest contracts by estimated premium. # (rank in the session), Name (public) or Contract (signed in: ticker, expiry, strike and C or P), Side (a Call or Put chip in two neutral hues; a side is a category, not a direction), Expiry, DTE, Vol / prior OI (or Vol / OI), Est. premium. The public note says "strikes are in the signed-in view".
- Names with the most listed contracts (signed in: Most listed names): Contracts, Calls, Puts (signed in C / P), Largest premium bucket.
- Per session (signed in). The last four months: contracts and names per session.
All / Calls / Puts; a ticker filter (public: "Filter by ticker"; signed in: the Ticker box); public headers sort; signed in the board pages.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A contract row or a name row (signed in) | The company page, /companies/<TICKER> (Company page) |
The board says what traded, not why: a large print can be a hedge, a roll or the closing of an old position.
Greeks exposure
A modeled estimate of the options exposure dealers carry in each underlying of the options universe, greek by greek: where gamma clusters by strike, the zero-gamma flip level, the call and put walls, delta, vega, theta and charm, and the volatility structure (term structure, skew, implied against realised). Read it as positioning context: where hedging flows may cluster and whether they tend to dampen or amplify moves. It is not observed dealer data and not a forecast (how to read greeks).
- Header. "Options greeks exposure (modeled)", "Modeled dealer options exposure across N underlyings from end-of-day open interest and implied volatility. An estimate, not observed dealer data." Notices appear when the snapshot is old ("Heads up") or when a name's chain came back essentially empty and its figures are withheld for the session (the rows are kept and marked, not removed).
- Tabs GEX, DEX, VEX, TEX, CEX, VOL come first, with the snapshot's as-of line beside them ("As of end of day <date> … Modeled from end-of-day exchange-published options chains"; under the tabs on a narrow screen). On a phone the six tabs sit on one row.
- Locked tabs. Without an account, every tab except GEX shows a card instead of data: "FREE ACCOUNT", "<What the tab shows> is part of the full greeks suite (DEX, VEX, TEX, CEX, VOL), which requires a free Kresmion account. The GEX tab stays open to everyone." (for example "Delta exposure" or "The volatility structure"), the buttons Create a free account and Sign in, and "You will come back to this tab." On a locked tab this card comes before the underlying selector.
- Underlying selector. Chips for the most-read names and a search box; signed out, the box lists the names in the public snapshot. On a wide screen it sits above the tab's data; on a phone it follows the data, and picking a name there scrolls back up to the tabs when they are off screen.
- GEX tab. The tiles first: Net GEX (with the regime words "net long gamma: hedging tends to dampen moves" or "net short gamma: hedging tends to amplify moves"), Call GEX, Put GEX, Zero-gamma flip ("modeled hedging pressure flips sign below this level") and Spot, each with its change against the prior stored session. Then a sentence explaining the bar colours and the gamma profile chart: modeled signed dollar gamma per strike near spot, teal bars positive gamma, amber negative; larger bars are where modeled hedging flows cluster.
- Open the full modeled greeks suite (signed out). A box describing what an account adds, right under the gamma profile, followed by "GEX is the free tab, served from the public gamma snapshot. The full suite (DEX, VEX, TEX, CEX, VOL) needs a free account."
- Universe table. Underlying, Spot, Net GEX ($/1% move), Call GEX, Put GEX, Zero-gamma flip (hover for the distance from spot), Modeled regime ("long γ" or "short γ"). Withheld or new names carry a marker. It lists the top 10 by the current sort (plus the selected name, if the cut would hide it) and a button "Show all N underlyings (+K more)"; once expanded, "Show the top 10" folds it back. A list only one or two rows longer than ten is shown whole. On a phone the table keeps three columns: Underlying, Net GEX and Zero-gamma flip.
- Coverage. After the tab's data, the coverage line (how many underlyings the snapshot covers) and, signed out, a note on what the free tab and the account each include.
- Modeling assumptions (read before using). The dealer sign assumption (net long calls, short puts; if it is wrong for a name, that name's sign can flip), open interest as a positioning proxy, prior-day open interest, Black-Scholes inputs (spot, the 3-month T-bill rate), a static snapshot, the universe and the cadence (one snapshot per trading day, after the close; nothing updates intraday).
- Understand options positioning. Related reading: learn articles on dealer gamma and walls, and implied probability.
Click a chip, search a name, or click a universe row to load it. Click a tab (the address changes to ?tab=…, so a tab can be shared, and signing up from the page brings you back to the tab you were on). Sort the universe table by clicking a header (Net GEX sorts by size; Modeled regime groups by sign); Show all N underlyings lists every row.
- Title strip. "Options greeks exposure", with the options section tabs and a segmented control for the seven tabs: GEX, DEX, VEX, TEX, CEX, VOL, EARN.
- Control bar. Shortcuts to the largest books by net gamma, a ticker search over the whole modeled universe, and a coverage line. The page opens on SPY, or on the name in a
?ticker=link when that name is in the modeled universe. - Notices. Stale. (the snapshot is old), Withheld. (the name's chain came back essentially empty), Legacy snapshot. (the GEX figures come from the public gamma snapshot because the full suite could not load).
- KPI strip (greek tabs). Net, Call and Put for the tab's greek with the change against the prior session, Spot, and on GEX the Zero-gamma flip.
- By-strike chart. The tab's greek per strike near spot ("Gamma by strike", "Delta by strike", "Vega by strike", "Theta by strike"). Positive modeled exposure is drawn in the greek's colour and negative in a muted tone of the same colour; neither is a direction. Window buttons show ±5%, ±10% (the default) or ±20% around spot; your choice is remembered in this browser. Hover, focus or use the arrow keys for a bar's value.
- GEX tab. Beside the profile, Call and put walls: the gamma walls (headline) and the open-interest walls, each with Strike, vs spot and Chg / OI (strike change against the prior session for gamma walls, contracts at the strike for open-interest walls). Notes appear when both walls sit on one strike (common where strikes are widely spaced against the price), when an open-interest wall sits at the edge of the ±20% window (larger open interest may sit further out), and when the two definitions disagree. How the walls are defined opens the rule. Below: Zomma by strike and How this gamma profile moves (net, call and put speed and zomma with their changes). Then the universe table: Ticker, Spot, Net GEX, Call GEX, Put GEX, Zero-gamma flip (with distance from spot), Gamma sign.
- DEX tab. Delta by strike and "Reading delta exposure".
- VEX tab. Vega by strike, Vanna and vomma (net, call, put), and Vomma by strike. VEX is read as vega here; vanna, which some tools call VEX, is kept separate.
- TEX tab. Theta by strike and "How to read theta exposure": a positive net means the modeled book collects decay on balance, a negative one that it pays; decay concentrates where open interest sits closest to the money and nearest expiry; a deep in-the-money put can show positive theta.
- CEX tab. Charm exposure: how modeled dollar delta decays per calendar day. No by-strike profile is published for charm.
- VOL tab.
- KPIs: Implied vol, ATM ~30d, Realized vol, 20d, Implied minus realized (vol points; the sign is shown, not coloured, because a premium is not a move) and 20d realized pctile (in its own stored history).
- ATM implied vol term structure: IV by days to expiry. 25-delta skew per expiry: put IV minus call IV; gold bars where puts are richer, muted bars where calls are. Hovering a point or bar marks the same expiry on the other chart and in the table.
- Implied against realized: two bars on one axis, with a sentence saying whether the option market is charging more or less than the stock has been moving.
- Realized term: close-to-close volatility over four windows; the 20-session figure (tinted) is the one the premium is measured against. Beneath it, where that figure sits in its own history.
- How much the volatility itself moves: the expectation (vol of implied vol, on the ~30-day ATM IV) and the outcome (vol of realised vol), each over 30 sessions, or "N of 31 sessions stored" while history builds. Their levels are not comparable with each other.
- Expiries: Expiry, DTE, ATM IV, 25d skew, Contracts. Click a row to mark it on both charts.
- EARN tab (signed in only). The earnings-move layer for the selected name: KPIs Prints with both sides, Realized larger ("N of M" prints where the realised move beat the implied move), Median implied / realized and Next print. A chart per print shows the implied move (the at-the-money straddle on the last chain before the print, as a ± band) and the realised move as a dot inside or outside it. Tables: Printing in the next N sessions, <TICKER>: last N prints (Date, Window, Implied, Realized, Implied - realized, Net GEX into the print, Date from: the earnings calendar or the 8-K Item 2.02 filing) and Latest print per name. A record of past prints, not a forecast.
- Modeling assumptions and how to read this page. The same assumptions as the public page, plus the chart colour rules.
- Pick a tab with the segmented control; the address keeps it as
?tab=…. - Pick a name with a shortcut, the search box, a universe row, or (on EARN) a name in any of its tables; the whole page follows that name.
- Window buttons on each by-strike chart; hover and arrow keys on every chart.
| You click | You land on |
|---|---|
| A tab | The same page at ?tab=<tab> (GEX has no parameter) |
| A chip, shortcut, universe row, EARN name | The same page with that underlying selected |
| Create a free account / Sign in (locked tab card), or the account box under the gamma profile | Sign-up or sign-in, then back to the same tab (a new account goes through onboarding and the tour first) |
| Links under "Understand options positioning" | Learn articles, the public gamma snapshot, /tools/options-implied-probability |
Read the flip level together with spot: a spot above the flip sits in the modeled long-gamma zone, below it in the short-gamma zone, under the stated assumption. For futures realised volatility rather than equity options, see Futures volatility.
Implied probability
The price distribution one expiry's option prices imply for an underlying: the risk-neutral density at expiry, the probability of finishing above or below levels around spot, and the one-standard-deviation implied move (Implied probability).
- Header. "Implied probability", "The risk-neutral distribution US options prices imply for each expiry. Risk-neutral probabilities carry a risk premium; they are not predictions." A coverage line follows.
- Ticker (with its spot) and Expiry pickers, and the days to expiry.
- Risk-neutral PDF: <ticker> on <expiry>. The density over strikes, with spot dashed and the one-sigma band dotted. The subtitle gives spot, liquid strikes out of total, and the risk-free rate (the 3-month Treasury bill).
- Cumulative probability above level. Threshold (10% and 5% below spot, spot, 5%, 10% and 20% above), $ Level, Implied P.
- 1-σ implied move (16th to 84th percentile). ± a % of spot and in dollars, with the sentence "roughly a 68% probability that <ticker> closes within ±… by <expiry>" and the total probability of the fit (a clean fit reads 1.000; accepted within ±0.10).
- Uncomputable when an expiry fails the no-arbitrage or integration checks; try another expiry (far-dated or thin chains often fail).
- Methodology and disclosure.
- Title strip. "Options-implied probability" with quick picks for SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA, the Ticker and Expiry pickers and Method.
- Spot, Expiry, 1σ implied move, Above <level> and Below <level> (one minus above).
- Implied distribution at expiry. The density split at the chosen level. A Noisy fit note appears when the total probability is far from 1, and the tails are then less reliable.
- Probability by level. Level, Price, Above, Below and a split bar. Click a row to split the chart there.
- Implied range and fit, then Method and caveats.
Pick a ticker and an expiry (the default expiry is chosen for you). Signed in: the level tabs on the chart (-10% to +20%) or a row in Probability by level split the distribution; Method jumps to the method panel. Hover the chart or use the arrow keys to read a strike.
Controls stay on this page.
Risk-neutral tails are usually priced higher than they turn out, because protection carries a premium. Compare expiries rather than reading one number as a probability of the event.
Where to find it
- See what futures did at the last settle → Futures overview, Markets › Futures › Overview
- See only grains, softs and livestock futures → Commodity futures, Agriculture board
- See equity index, Treasury, currency or bitcoin futures → Financial futures
- Open one contract's chart, volatility, season and positioning → Futures contract,
/futures/<ROOT>(for example/futures/GC) - Find which futures markets are in contango or backwardation → Futures curves, the Contango and Backwardation KPIs
- Read one delivery month's settles and its spread to the front → Delivery-month contract, from the Delivery months panel of the curve page
- Find the steepest contango or deepest backwardation → Futures curves, the two extreme KPIs
- See how a curve has changed over the last day, week or month → Futures curves, the dashed 1W and 1M curves and the Chg column
- Get an alert when a curve's front to next spread crosses a level → Alert on Futures curves or on a contract page
- See when the next EIA report or Fed decision is due and how the last one compared with consensus → the Next print line on a contract page, or the EIA prints line on Commodity inventories
- Find futures with unusually quiet realised volatility → Futures volatility, Most compressed
- Check whether the VIX curve is inverted → Futures volatility, VIX / VIX3M and Volatility term structure
- See how a contract has done in this calendar month historically → Futures seasonality, the month rank, or the Season group on the contract page
- Find the next first notice day or last trading day → Roll calendar, or the Roll column on the futures overview
- Look at futures curves without an account → Contango and backwardation monitor,
/tools/futures-curve - Get an alert when a curve flips between contango and backwardation → Alert me on the public curve monitor
- Read live commodity quotes and the gold/silver ratio → Commodities overview (Cmd-K
CMDTY) - Find where speculators are stretched in commodity futures → Commodity data, sorted by |z|, then COT positioning
- See the latest commodity detector events → Commodity events
- Compare US crude or gas stocks with the usual level for the week → Commodity inventories, vs 5y
- Read CFTC positioning without an account → CFTC COT positioning,
/tools/cot-positioning - Set an alert when speculators reach a 3-year extreme in a market → the bell on CFTC COT positioning
- See how primary dealers are positioned in Treasuries → Primary dealer positions
- Find stocks whose short-sale share of volume is unusual for them today → Off-exchange short volume, ordered by deviation
- Read one symbol's short-volume history → Off-exchange short volume, signed in, click the row
- Find the most shorted stocks against their float → Short interest, rank by % of float, or the Crowded ranking
- Find shorts that have built or covered the most since the last settlement → Short interest, Builds and Cover rankings
- Filter short positions by crowded float and price moving against shorts → Short interest, Pressure conditions
- See the headline options readings of the last session → Options overview, Markets › Options › Overview
- Find which names have implied volatility near the top of their range → IV rank
- See a name's implied volatility level and one-day change → IV rank, signed in
- Read the universe put/call ratio and its history → Put/call ratios
- Find a name's max pain for each expiry → Max pain, click the row
- See option contracts that traded far above their open interest → Unusual options activity
- Find the zero-gamma flip level for SPY → Greeks exposure, GEX tab (Cmd-K
GAMMA) - Find a name's call and put walls → Greeks exposure, GEX tab, signed in
- Read the ATM implied volatility term structure and 25-delta skew → Greeks exposure, VOL tab (Cmd-K
VOL) - Compare implied and realised volatility for a stock → Greeks exposure, VOL tab, Implied against realized
- Compare earnings straddle-implied moves with what happened → Greeks exposure, EARN tab, signed in
- See the probability options imply of finishing above a level → Implied probability
- Learn what GEX, walls, IV rank, skew, put/call and max pain mean → How to read options data