Macro, rates, capital flows and FX

This chapter covers the macro side of Kresmion: the regime read and the signed-in macro desk, the public pages on central banks, money markets, the Fed, sovereign spreads, economic surprises and official statistics, the capital flows desk (CFTC positioning, 13F, TIC, BIS), the currency pages, and the daily brief and research notes. Most signed-in pages sit under Markets › Macro, Markets › Forex and Data › Capital Flows in the desktop menu. Several public pages show a denser signed-in layout at the same address once you log in.

The pages most readers start with, and the question each answers:

• Macro overview: what the cross-asset backdrop looks like today, and how the regime read is built.
• Economic calendar: what data and policy events are due next, and how the last ones landed.
• Fed hub: when the next FOMC meeting is, and how futures markets price the path of the policy rate.
• Central banks: what each central bank has set its policy rate at, and when it last moved.
• COT positioning: how large speculators are positioned in futures, relative to their own history.
• FX monitor: where the major currencies stand on official reference rates.

Signed-in macro desk

The signed-in macro desk is a set of one-screen terminal pages under Markets › Macro. Each page opens with a title strip (title, a context line with the data's as-of, and the page's own controls on the right), a strip of headline figures (KPIs), then a grid of panels that fits one screen on a laptop or larger. Below about 1024 pixels wide the panels stack and the page scrolls.

A few rules hold on every page in this group, so they are explained once here:

• Hover a column header to see what the number measures and the day it describes ("1D change, last session, as of day").
• Hover a panel title for a one-line description of the panel.
• Long lists page instead of scrolling. The pager (for example "1-12 of 40" with arrows) sits in the panel's top bar.
• Colour. Green and red appear only on a signed change (a move up or down). Levels, relationships and directions of trade use neutral or series colours. The sign is always printed beside the colour.
• "--" means a value the source did not provide. It is never a zero.
• Sources. The last line of each page is a Sources link that opens the /settings/data-sources page at the macro family, where the full attribution text lives.
• Signed out. Every page here needs a free account. A signed-out visitor sees a sign-in card with "Create a free account" and "Sign in"; for the overview and calendar the card also offers a free public page ("Macro regime" at /macro/regime, "Central bank policy rates" at /macro/central-banks).

Typing /macro on its own takes you to the overview.

Macro overview

One screen that answers "what is the cross-asset backdrop today, why, and what moved": the regime reading and the factors behind it, world equity indices, US rate and volatility gauges, cross-asset risk gauges, Fed decision odds and the start of today's daily brief.

• Title strip. "Macro", with a context line such as "Engine inputs as of day, computed time · N world indices". The Daily brief button on the right opens the full brief.
• KPI strip.
  • Regime: the engine's label for the smoothed score (Risk-on, Risk-off or Transitional style wording as the engine publishes it). The small figure beside it is the regime's age in weekday sessions ("N sess"); hover for whether that is sessions in this regime or sessions since the last change.
  • Regime score: the smoothed composite on a scale of -1 to +1, with the raw (unsmoothed) figure under it ("raw score"). Hover: the buckets sit at ±0.17 and ±0.50.
  • Conviction: how firmly the evidence backs the label (for example "high"), with a figure out of 100. It is the weaker of two parts: the share of factor weight pointing the way of the label (for Neutral, how balanced the factors are) and how far the score sits from the edge where the label would be lost. High from 70, medium from 40, low below.
  • US 10Y: the 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, labelled "FRED", dated by its observation day.
  • Dollar index: the ICE US Dollar Index from our 5-minute snapshot, with its 1-day change. It is the same figure the forex dashboard shows.
  • VIX: the CBOE Volatility Index daily close and its 1-day change.
  • S&P 500: the last close and 1-day change, the same row as the world indices board.
• Regime score panel. A horizontal track cut into five buckets: Strong risk-off (-1 to -0.50), Risk-off (-0.50 to -0.17), Neutral (-0.17 to +0.17), Risk-on (+0.17 to +0.50) and Strong risk-on (+0.50 to +1). A marker shows where today's smoothed score sits, the bucket it lands in is highlighted and named ("Neutral bucket"), and ticks mark the edges. Hover a segment for its range. Below the track, four one-line cross-asset reads (Equities, Credit, Rates, FX) give the engine's word for each market, computed from equity momentum, the high-yield spread, the 10-year real yield and AUD/JPY respectively. "not reported" means the engine published no read for that market today.
• What drives the score. One row per factor, heaviest weight first: Liquidity (40%), Risk appetite (30%), Growth (20%), Volatility (10%). Columns: Wt (weight in the composite), z (the factor's z-score, clipped at 3), a signed bar, and Contrib. (the factor's z times its weight). The last row, Raw sum, adds the four contributions: that is the raw composite before smoothing. A factor with a large positive contribution is pushing the score toward risk-on; a large negative one toward risk-off. The meta line names the engine day; if a newer day exists that has not yet been scored, it says "newer row ... not yet scored".
• Regime inputs. Every indicator behind the factors with its z (the z-score of its change over its last five observations, clipped at 3) and Source (the date of the source observation). The meta line counts how many inputs are publishing ("N of M publishing"). "not tracked" (with "n/t" in the date column) means the input produced no value today or its source is older than its cadence allows: it is left out of its factor, never counted as zero. "Licensed" marks a licensed series whose values we do not display. A second section, Stored engine indicators, lists the levels the engine stored with their source.
• Engine reading. The engine's written interpretation of the day's score, clamped to fit. The button under it reads Read all when text is cut, or How the score is built when it fits; both open a dialog with the full reading and the method note: inputs are z-scored changes clipped to 3, a factor is the mean of the inputs available that day, the four contributions sum to the raw composite, and the strip's score is the raw figure smoothed (50% this session's raw plus 50% the previous session's smoothed score; the engine computes on weekdays only), so raw and smoothed differ by design. Labels are fixed functions of the numbers, with hysteresis: a label is only left toward zero once the score is 0.05 back past its edge.
• World indices. Equity indices grouped by region; each region header carries the region's average 1D move ("region · avg 1D move"). Columns: Close, a diverging bar on a scale shared by every index, and 1D (last session). The meta line counts breadth ("1D · N up, N down, N flat"). "n/r" means no change was reported.
• US gauges. Daily closes for the remaining US gauges (the 5-year yield and other series not already in the strip). Columns: Last, 1D (percent for prices, basis points for yields), a 30d sparkline and the 30D low / high.
• Cross-asset risk. Volatility, credit, safe-haven, commodity and FX gauges for the last session. Kind is a two-letter tag (VO volatility, CR credit, SH safe haven, CM commodity, FX); hover for the word. Level and 1D are the latest values (WTI, gold and silver come from the commodities desk snapshot, hover for which). Read is a fixed rule on the level and the day's change (for example VIX above 30), not a forecast.
• Fed decision odds. The next FOMC meetings (rows, dated from the Fed hub's meeting calendar) against outcomes (columns Hold, -25, -50+, +25, +50+). Each cell is the Polymarket YES price for that outcome, a crowd estimate; the highest cell in a row is emphasised.
• Daily brief. The opening paragraphs of today's brief, paged to fit, with a footer counting the engine events and external reports behind it.

• Panels with more rows than fit show a pager in the panel bar (Regime inputs, World indices, US gauges, Cross-asset risk).
• Hover any number for its horizon and as-of; hover a factor or input name for its full label or source.
• Timestamps display in your browser's time zone; date-only labels are UTC days.
• Data refreshes on its own: the regime every few minutes, Fed odds every 5 minutes, the brief every 30 minutes.

The score is smoothed, so it moves less than the raw figure: compare the two in the Regime score KPI to see whether today's raw reading is pulling the smoothed one up or down. To see why the label changed, read What drives the score first (which factor carries the largest contribution), then Regime inputs (which indicator moved). The public version of this read, without the factor tables, is /macro/regime. For the Fed path in more depth use /macro/fed.

Daily brief (signed in)

Reading the morning note on the regime, key risks and what is scheduled, with the current regime beside it and the archive of past briefs one click away.

• Title strip. "Daily brief", with a context line counting the briefs in the archive. Buttons: Regime dashboard and Calendar.
• KPI strip.
  • Brief: the day the note was written for, marked "latest" or "archive".
  • Regime today: the current regime label with its smoothed score. When you are reading an older brief, the horizon reads "now, not this note": the regime shown is today's, not the regime on the brief's day.
  • Signals and External reports: how many engine events and external (OSINT) reports the writer read for this note.
  • Reading time (at 200 words per minute, with the word count) and Sections.
• Today's brief / Brief panel. The note itself, set in columns. Its sections, when present, are Summary, Overview, Macro regime, Key risks, Market context and What to watch, each with a coloured marker. The Macro regime section ends with a "Regime dashboard →" link and What to watch with an "Economic calendar →" link. Figures are set in aligned numerals. A long brief pages a panel-width at a time.
• Regime panel. The same five-bucket score track as the overview (Strong risk-off to Strong risk-on, edges at ±0.17 and ±0.50), the regime word and conviction, the raw score and sessions in this regime, and a small factor table (Wt, z). The meta line says "current reading, not this note's" when you read an archived brief.
• Archive. Up to 90 past briefs, newest first, each with its date and "N sig · N ext" (events and external reports). The selected one is highlighted.

• ‹ Older / Newer › in the brief panel's bar step through the archive one day at a time.
• The date picker in the Archive bar jumps to any listed day; clicking a row in the Archive does the same.
• The chosen day is written into the address as ?date=YYYY-MM-DD, so you can bookmark or share a specific brief. Picking the latest brief removes the parameter.
• The latest brief refreshes every 30 minutes while the page is open.

This is the signed-in reading view. The public daily brief archive lives at /daily-brief, and the community copy at /briefs. The overview shows the first paragraphs of the same brief in its Daily brief panel.

Macro calendar

Seeing which economic releases are due today, what each print was against its forecast, and how a fixed cross-asset panel moved in the 30 or 60 minutes after it, plus the same release's last twelve prints and the week ahead.

• Title strip. "Macro calendar", with the feed's as-of time (in your zone and in UTC) and the refresh rate: "refreshing every 60 s" while a release is close, otherwise "refreshing every 10 min".
• KPI strip.
  • Releases: releases in the window (today plus or minus one day) that pass your filters.
  • Printed: how many of them have an actual.
  • Reacted, 30 min (or 60 min): how many have a measured reaction at the chosen window.
  • Next print: the next release still to come, with a countdown.
  • Next 7 days: releases still to print from now to the end of the seventh day, same filters.
  • If the feed fails, the KPIs say "feed unavailable" rather than showing a number.
• Releases and reactions (the main table). One header per day in your time zone, with a relative tag (for example "today") and the event count. Columns:
  • Time: the release time in your zone (the header shows the zone; hover a time for UTC). A minute shared by several releases shows its time once.
  • Event: importance bars (amber, one to three, attention only, not direction), the country code and the release name.
  • Prev, Fcst, Actual: the previous value, the forecast and the print. "·" means none was published; "not seen" means the actual has not been read yet.
  • Surp: the actual against the forecast. It is deliberately uncoloured, because the same sign means opposite things on different indicators (a beat on payrolls versus a rise in claims).
  • Seen: how long after the release minute we first read the actual.
  • Reaction columns, grouped under Equities (SPX, NDX, RTY), Rates · credit (TLT, HYG), FX (DXY, USDJPY), Cmdty (Gold, WTI), Crypto (BTC) and Vol (VIX): each asset's move from the last sample 5 minutes before the print to the first sample after the window, in percent (VIX in index points, marked "pts"). Green is up, red is down.
  • States instead of numbers: awaiting print (with a countdown) spans the row before the release; print not seen yet; 30 min reaction due HH:MM while the window is still running; no trade where the price did not change because the market was closed (US equities, TLT and HYG outside the cash session), shortened to n/t in a single cell; gap when no sample exists within 10 minutes (hover for the reason). A "no trade" is not a measured zero.
  • On a narrower screen some reaction columns step out (Russell first, then VIX, HYG and so on); the meta line names them and they still appear in the base rate panel.
• Base rate: country release. The selected release's last twelve prints, newest first: Print (date), Actual, Fcst, Surp, and the same reaction columns at the chosen window. "no reaction recorded" or "no reaction data" fill a row without samples. Until you pick a row it shows the latest printed release. History only, no forecast.
• Next 7 days. Bars of releases per day for the next week, with the next release named, and a list from the selected day to the end of the week (time in your zone, country, release name). Within the same minute the more important release is listed first.
• How to read (button in the table's bar) opens a dialog that repeats these rules.

• Country toggles in the title strip: US, EU, GB, JP, CN, CA, AU, or All. You can switch on several at once.
• Importance: Low+, Medium+ (the default) or High.
• Window: 30 min or 60 min, which changes every reaction cell, the Reacted KPI and the base rate.
• Country and importance are saved in the address (?countries=US,EU&min=high), so a filtered view can be bookmarked. The window resets to 30 minutes on reload.
• Click a row (or focus it and press Enter or Space) to load that release's base rate.
• Click a bar in Next 7 days to start the list on that day.
• Below 1024 pixels wide the table becomes a card list; tap a card to open its last twelve prints inline.

To judge whether today's surprise is unusual for that release, click the row and compare its Surp and reactions with the twelve earlier prints. Country pages (Country page) show each country's releases for the next 14 days. The reaction measures what prices did around the minute, not why.

Correlation matrix

Seeing which assets in a basket move together or in opposite directions over 30, 60 or 90 days, how one pair's relationship compares with its own past year, and how tightly markets as a whole are moving together.

• Colour. A correlation is a relationship, not a move, so this page never uses red and green: cyan means the pair moves together, fuchsia means it moves opposite, deeper with strength. Asset-class swatches (crypto, equities, rates, commodities, FX) use their section colour.
• KPI strip.
  • Average correlation: the average absolute pairwise correlation of the stored snapshot basket over 30 days, with its band and "alert" when it is at or above the alert threshold; a small meter shows it on 0 to 1.
  • Most together and Most opposite: the strongest positive and negative pairs in your basket, with the pair named. "no positive pair" / "no negative pair" when none exists.
  • Basket: assets and pair count.
• How the basket moves together. A heat-tile matrix of pairwise correlations of daily returns over the window. Assets are reordered so the closest movers sit side by side, and runs of tightly linked assets are labelled (EQUITIES, BONDS, COMMODITIES or "GROUP A"). The diagonal (an asset with itself) is blank. Hover a tile for the pair, its correlation and the window.
• Strongest pairs. Two sections, Move together and Move opposite, five pairs each, with a diverging bar and the correlation (r).
• Pair panel (titled with the pair, "A / B"). Facts for the selected pair, computed live: Current, 12-month mean, Percentile (where today sits in its own 12-month history), Window, Lead / lag ("A leads B by N days" or "No clear lead or lag") and, when there is a lead, Best lagged r. A sentence places the percentile in a fixed bucket: below the 25th percentile, within the middle half, above the 75th, or above the 90th.
• Rolling correlation. The pair's rolling correlation over the last 12 months on a fixed -1 to +1 axis, with its 12-month mean dotted. History only, no projection.
• How tightly markets move together. The stored snapshot basket's 30-day average on a 0 to 1 track with three bands: Moving independently (under 0.4), Elevated (0.4 to 0.7), Spiking (0.7 and above), the alert threshold dashed, and a sentence stating where the reading sits.
• Basket. The current assets as chips, with "N of 12" and whether it is a preset or custom.

• Basket preset (title strip): Watchlist, Crypto, Macro (the default) or Stocks. Watchlist uses the tickers on your watchlist that the page supports and needs at least two.
• Window: 30D, 60D or 90D.
• Add an asset: type in "+ add ticker" (suggestions by exact ticker, prefix, contains, then name); Enter adds the top suggestion, Escape clears. Remove an asset with the × on its chip. Up to 12 assets; at least two are needed. Adding or removing makes the basket custom, which is computed live; presets use a stored snapshot.
• Save keeps the basket in this browser for your next visit. Image copies the matrix to the clipboard as a PNG (or downloads it if the clipboard is blocked).
• Click a matrix tile or a Strongest pairs row to pick that pair for the Pair and Rolling panels. Without a pick they show the strongest pair. Release (or Escape) drops the pick.

A high Average correlation means assets have been moving as one block, so spreading across them has given less variety than usual over the window. Compare the 30D and 90D windows to see whether a relationship is new or established.

Country risk

Comparing countries by their country risk premium and equity risk premium, seeing the spread inside each region, and opening any country's page.

• Title strip. "Country risk", with "Damodaran country and equity risk premiums · edition of month year". A premium is a level, never a move, so no red or green is used.
• KPI strip. Countries (in view, with a premium, of those listed), Median premium of the rows in view, At zero premium (countries rated as mature markets), Highest premium (with the country), and Verified ratings (countries with at least one verified sovereign rating).
• Country risk premium, world (map). Countries shaded on a sequential scale: darker is a higher premium over a mature market; hatched means no premium reported. Switch to Region colouring with the tab. Hover a country for its card; the selected or searched country is outlined in orange.
• Spread within each region. One row per region, plus "Every region": With premium (countries with a premium / countries listed), Median, and a strip where each country is a dot on the premium axis with the region's median as a tick.
• Countries by risk premium (table). Country (with its region swatch), ISO, Ratings (verified) (the agencies' own ratings, never combined; "not shown" when none is verified; hover for agency, rating and outlook), Country risk premium (with a level bar), Equity risk premium, and FX vs base (the currency pair against your chosen base). In "One list" mode a Region column appears.
• List mode. When no Damodaran edition is stored yet, the page lists every country A-Z without premium columns, colours or KPI values, and says so. A missing premium is not zero.

• Search (or press / anywhere on the page): country name, ISO code or currency. Escape clears it.
• Base: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, CAD or CNY for the FX column. It changes this table only; the country page keeps its own currency figures.
• Rating by (an agency) and the tier switch All / Investment / Speculative / Not shown, filtering on that one agency's scale (investment grade is BBB- / Baa3 and above). Shown only when verified ratings exist.
• Map: drag to pan, wheel or the + / - buttons to zoom, the expand button to show the whole world; the search on the map zooms to a country and pins its card. Keyboard: + / - / 0 and the arrow keys.
• Region rows filter the map and the table; click the same row again (or "Every region") to clear.
• Table sort: Riskiest, Safest, A-Z; group: By region or One list. "Clear filters" appears when nothing matches.

Use the region strip to spot outliers inside a region before opening a country. Ratings appear only where we could verify them against an official source, so a blank is "not verified", not "unrated".

Country page

One screen per country: its risk premiums and rating, policy rate and markets, its 10-year spread, releases due in the next two weeks, what happened there in the last 30 days, what it trades, sovereign ratings, basic facts and recent World Bank research.

• Title strip. The country's name, with region, ISO-2 / ISO-3 codes and currency. Under it, a row of macro section tabs (Overview, Brief, Calendar, Liquidity, Central banks, Money markets, Fed hub, Surprise, Economics, Sovereign spreads, Correlation, Countries, Trade, Markets, Events) with Countries marked current. On the right, ☆ Watch adds the country to My list (it reads ★ Watching once it is there; hover it to Remove), and Economic statistics opens the country's official statistics.
• KPI strip. Shown when available:
  • Country risk premium (over a mature equity risk premium), Equity risk premium (total) and Default spread (sovereign), as published by Damodaran via Finnhub. A missing one reads "not reported".
  • Rating, agency: the first verified agency's rating with its outlook, dated by the latest action.
  • Policy rate: the central bank's rate (a target range shows as a range), from our central bank table, the same reading as /macro/central-banks and the Fed hub.
  • For the United States: US 10Y (FRED daily), EUR/USD (latest daily bar; hover explains it can differ from the ECB fixing on the FX monitor) and Dollar index.
  • For other countries: the currency pair against the US dollar (daily close and 1D) and the country's equity index (latest daily bar and 1D), or "not mapped" when we have no index for it.
• Market-implied credit: 10Y spread. A Kresmion calculation, not a credit rating. Rows: 10Y (the country's 10-year yield, monthly average for the latest month), vs Bund (country 10Y minus the German 10Y, same month) and vs US Treasury, each with Level, 1M bp and 12M bp changes. Wider spreads read in the down colour. A Rank vs Bund line ("N of M", widest = 1) and a monthly chart of the spread over the Bund (solid) and over Treasuries (dashed). Hover a row for the legs and sources. If the latest month has no Bund leg yet, the row names the last month that has one.
• Due in the next 14 days. The country's scheduled releases: When (UTC), Release, Imp. (importance), Previous, Forecast, with the calendar source named in the meta line.
• Events (the last 30 days; times in UTC, the source's own). Two sections, each with its total on its label:
  • Official record · N: official releases that name the country (routine ones included), plus the headline releases of its own government (the United Kingdom's for GB; a European Union member never takes the EU's), newest first, each with an Official record chip.
  • Reported · N: news and OSINT stories that name the country, in the sources' words, each with its status chip (Official record, Official source, Confirmed (N) or Single source, as on OSINT).
  • Confirmed only (N) keeps the stories with an official record or two or more independent sources; N is how many qualify. Independent sources are counted only on stories grouped since 2026-10-27, so few stories are confirmed yet; with none, a line under the table says so.
  • The panel shows the rows that fit, always at least one Reported row; +N events opens every row in a window. An empty section reads "None in the last 30 days".
  • In a narrow panel the status is a one-word tag before the title and titles take two lines; on a phone the full chip sits under the title.
  • All → opens the Official wire filtered to the country, routine records included, every date: the list holds every record the panel counted.
• Sovereign credit ratings (shown only when at least one rating is verified). One row per agency: Agency, Rating, Outlook ("not confirmed" when the source did not confirm it), Change (▲ up or ▼ down from the previous rating) and Action (the date of the latest agency action, or the date first reported). Ratings are the agencies' own opinions; we do not combine or average them. Hover a row for its provenance: the publisher it was read from, or, for a rating found in a news report, the outlet, date and headline and the official source it was confirmed against, plus the next review date and "A newer report is awaiting verification" when that applies.
• What it trades (UN Comtrade, goods only, annual). A summary line: Exports, Imports, Balance (surplus or deficit) and Top-3 chapters as a share of exports. A ranked table switchable between Exports, Imports, Destinations and Origins, with a bar and the US dollar value. Some reporters lag by several years; the meta line names the year.
• Facts. Region, sub-region, currency, ISO codes, numeric code, central bank. When no rating is shown, a Credit ratings line says why ("no permitted source", "no verified rating yet" or "could not be read right now"); when premiums are missing, a Risk premiums line says "not reported".
• World Bank research. Documents from the last 10 years, newest first, with the count of older ones not shown.

• In What it trades on the Exports list, click an HS chapter to see the HS headings inside it; Back to chapters returns. The other lists are not drillable.
• In Events, click a row to open its page; turn on Confirmed only to keep the confirmed stories.
• ☆ Watch puts the country on My list, on Digest: its official records then reach your digest, Since your last visit on My list, and the World panel's On your list.
• Lists that are longer than the panel page in the panel bar.
• Hover KPI values and table rows for sources, observation dates and provenance.

The spread panel and the rating panel answer different questions: the spread is what bond markets price today, the rating is an agency's published opinion with its own date. A country missing from the spreads set says "This country is not in the sovereign spreads set."

Liquidity

Tracking US dollar liquidity: the Fed balance sheet, reverse repo, bank reserves, net liquidity, money supply, financial conditions, credit spreads and leading labour and inflation prints, summarised in one liquidity score.

• Title strip. "Liquidity", with "updated time UTC".
• KPI strip. Liquidity score (-3 to +3, with its band and a meter), Net liquidity ($ trillions, 4-week change), Reverse repo ($ billions, 4-week change), NFCI (with its label), HY spread (bp, with its trend), 10Y breakeven, Fed balance sheet ($ trillions, 4-week change) and M2 (year-on-year change). "live FRED read empty", "inputs not read" or "licensed series" replace a value that was not available.
• Net Fed liquidity. A weekly chart of the Fed balance sheet minus the reverse repo minus the Treasury General Account, in $ trillions. Tabs 2008, 2020, 2022 and 2024 replace the chart with a short note on a past episode (the financial crisis, the COVID shock, the start of quantitative tightening, the reverse repo unwind), for scale.
• What changed. Five rows: Net Fed liquidity, Fed balance sheet, Reverse repo (RRP), Bank reserves, M2 money supply. Columns: History (sparkline on its own scale), Level, Change (4 weeks; M2 year on year), the horizon, Trend and As of. "(stored)" marks a figure taken from the stored series, the same one the Fed hub uses, because this page's live read came back empty; net liquidity is never rebuilt that way, because its legs print on different days. Hover a series name for its note (for example "High RRP = excess liquidity in the system").
• Liquidity score. A five-band track: Drain (-3 to -1.5), Contracting (-1.5 to -0.5), Mixed (-0.5 to +0.5), Expanding (+0.5 to +1.5), Surge (+1.5 to +3), with a marker and the score. The text below gives the summary and the method: weighted 5-day momentum z-scores of net liquidity (30%), NFCI (25%, inverted), the high-yield spread (20%, inverted), M2 growth (15%) and jobless claims (10%, inverted). If some inputs were not read, it says how many and that the weights renormalise over the rest; if none were read, no score is shown.
• Financial conditions. NFCI (Chicago Fed) and STLFSI4 (St. Louis Fed), weekly, with labels: 0 is average, above 0 is tighter. A chart draws both.
• Credit conditions. ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads: High-yield OAS, Investment-grade OAS, HY / IG ratio, Spread trend. When the series is licensed for display, the panel says so instead of showing values.
• Leading indicators. Initial jobless claims, Claims, 4-week average, Claims trend (flagged when the 4-week average is above the recession-warning threshold), 10Y breakeven, Breakeven vs 2.25% (with a Fed pressure note when medium or high), 30Y mortgage rate, UMich sentiment ("low (below 65)", "normal range" or "high (above 95)").

Switch the Net Fed liquidity panel between Chart and the four episodes. Hover any "--" for the reason ("Not read from FRED on the last refresh"). The page has no outbound links other than Sources.

Net liquidity can rise without the Fed balance sheet growing when the reverse repo or the Treasury account falls; compare the three rows in What changed. For the Fed's balance sheet, reserves and meeting path in depth, use /macro/fed; for short-term funding rates, /macro/money-markets.

Macro prediction markets

Browsing open Polymarket prediction markets tagged macro (rates, inflation, growth, policy questions): what repriced in the last day, where the crowd prices each question, where the volume is and what resolves soon. Prices are crowd estimates, not forecasts by us.

• KPI strip. Open markets in view (the top 60 by lifetime volume are loaded; markets past their scheduled close are hidden), Volume (lifetime, USD), Volume 24h, Largest 24h move (the biggest YES repricing of at least 3 percentage points, with the question), Closing in 30d, and Kalshi match, in view (how many of these markets we matched to the same question on Kalshi).
• What moved. Markets whose YES price moved 3 pp or more in 24 hours, with YES and 24h change.
• Open markets. The table: the question, YES (last traded price), 24h and 7d changes in percentage points, 7d path sparkline, Volume, Vol 24h, Liquidity (resting order-book depth), Closes, and Kalshi (the matched Kalshi price) when any market in view is matched.
• Crowd prices and volume. One lane per Polymarket topic; each dot is a market at its YES price, sized by volume; the lane label carries the topic's lifetime volume.
• When they resolve. Scheduled closes per day for the next 7 or 30 days, a line counting markets by time to close, and a list of the next markets to close. A market can settle earlier or later than scheduled.

• Search ("Search markets: fed, bitcoin…", 3 characters or more) searches beyond the loaded 60.
• YES price band: Any, <10%, 35-65%, >90%.
• Sort the table by Volume, 24h move or Close.
• Click a topic lane label to show only that topic (again to show all); the active filters show in the context line with an × to clear.
• 7d / 30d on When they resolve; click a day bar to list that day's closes.

The Fed decision odds on the Macro overview come from the same venue, already arranged by meeting. For every topic and the cross-venue consensus, use the prediction markets hub at /intel/polymarket.

Macro events

Seeing which macro assets (rates, yields, volatility, global indices, shipping rates) our cross-asset detector has flagged, of what type and severity, and when. An event reports what the detector saw, not a forecast.

• Header. "Macro events", with a context line naming the cross-asset detector and its 15-minute cadence, and section pills for the other macro pages (Events current).
• Filters panel. Coloured pills for every event Type (with counts), Severity (Critical, High, Medium, Low, each with a glyph of one to four bars) and Asset (symbols with counts).
• When events fired. A stacked bar timeline by type: per hour over the last 24 hours, or per 6 hours over 7 days (UTC). Only active (not expired) events are counted, by the time they were detected. A legend names the type colours; the eight most frequent types get their own colour and the rest share grey "Other types".
• How severe. A bar split by severity (Critical pink, High amber, Medium violet, Low sky, unrated grey) with clickable counts. Severity is the detector's own label.
• Which assets are firing what. A grid of assets by event type; a deeper tint means more events.
• Latest events. Cards, newest first (12 at first): type chip, asset, severity chip, time since detection (hover for the exact UTC time), headline and the first line of the detector's note. Show more opens the full note, Value and Threshold where the detector recorded them, the detection time, the data source, and "Note reviewed by AI" when that applies.

• Click any pill, a severity count or a grid cell to filter; click it again to clear. Clear filters resets all. Each visual keeps its own dimension whole (the timeline still shows every type when you filter by type) so you can see what you are filtering out.
• 24h / 7d switches the timeline window.
• Show all N / Show the newest 12 expands the card list; Refresh reloads now (the page also refreshes every 15 minutes).

Up to the newest 100 active events are loaded. For events across every asset class use the event feed at /signals.

Global trade map

Exploring bilateral goods trade by product between every pair of countries, year by year: the largest exporter-to-importer corridors, who exports and imports most, trade balances, and a side-by-side comparison of up to five exporters. Data is CEPII BACI, annual, which reconciles what the exporter and the importer each declared, so a corridor will not match either country's own customs release exactly.

• Title strip. "Global trade map", with the years covered, the BACI version and load date. On first open it shows "the top 60 corridors of latest year, semiconductors". Values are thousand US dollars as published, converted for display. Gold means exports and blue means imports (a direction of trade, not a move).
• Filter bar. Material theme (a curated set of HS6 product lines, with the line count, or "Any product"), an HS product search (code or description, for example "854" or "lithium"), Exporter, swap, Importer, Year, and clear. A theme total is the sum of its curated lines, never "total trade".
• KPI strip. Trade in slice (total value), Corridors (exporter-importer pairs with trade), then either Top exporter and Top importer (with world share) or, when a country is selected, its Top destination / source and Top product exported / imported.
• Slice view panels.
  • Largest corridors, year. Ribbons from exporters (left) to importers (right). Only the top corridors that fit are drawn, so a country's bar is its value in the drawn corridors, not its total. With no filter at all the panel asks you to pick a product, an exporter or an importer and offers the theme chips.
  • Top exporters (or Export / Import partners of country): rank, country, value, Share, and a "+ compare" button.
  • Top importers (or Products exported by / imported by country, ranked at HS4 or theme level).
  • Trade balance, year. Exports minus imports of the product for the biggest traders: gold to the right means exports exceed imports, blue to the left the opposite.
  • Where product flows (map). Arcs for the largest corridors, the thickest the largest; the meta line notes corridors without a location.
  • Corridors / Slice by year. List: every corridor largest first with Exporter, Importer, Value, Share of slice and, where reported, Quantity in tons. Years: the slice's value (and quantity) per year. BACI is annual only; nothing is divided into months.
• Compare view panels. Compare exporters (one line per exporter per year, as Value or World share; share needs a product), Exporters compared (Exports, YoY, World share, Share chg in pp, 5y CAGR, and with two or more countries Imports and Net), Where their exports go (each exporter's destinations by share of its own exports), and Add an exporter (suggestions from the slice's top exporters).

• Every filter is written into the address (?product=theme:semiconductors&exporter=KOR&year=2024&compare=KOR,JPN), so any slice can be bookmarked or shared. clear returns to the default slice.
• Slice / Compare (N) in the title strip switches views; N is the number of compared exporters (up to 5).
• Click a row in Top exporters to set that country as exporter (or, with an exporter already set, as importer); in Top importers to set the importer or, on a country's product list, to filter to that product. Click an exporter or importer code in Corridors to set it. Click a country on the map to fill the empty side (exporter first), or click it again to release it.
• + compare on a ranking, a row in Trade balance, or a row in Add an exporter adds a country to the comparison; remove takes it out.
• On a shorter laptop window the page scrolls rather than squeezing the panels.

To answer "who supplies country X with product Y", set the importer and the product, then read Top exporters. To see a country's whole export mix, pick "Any product" and set it as exporter. A country's own trade profile in brief (UN Comtrade) is on its Country page.

Public macro pages

These pages answer the questions on rates and official statistics that most readers ask first: what each central bank has set, where US overnight funding trades, what the Fed is scheduled to do and how markets price it, how far government bond yields sit from the Bund and the Treasury, and how recent data landed against consensus. Most of them work without an account. When you are signed in, the same address opens a denser desk inside the app with more panels; the URL in your address bar does not change. Each section below says what an anonymous visitor sees and what a signed-in reader sees. Economic statistics is the exception: it is signed in only.

All of these pages live in the desktop menu under Markets › Macro, and each has a Cmd-K code. The small grey code beside a page title (for example CENB) is a button: click it to open the Cmd-K palette with that code already typed.

Central bank policy rates

One table of every policy rate Kresmion covers: the level, the instrument the bank actually sets, when it last changed and by how much, and the page each number came from. Signed in, it becomes a desk for reading the whole policy cycle at once.

• Header. "Central bank policy rates" with the date the rates are observed to. Below it a short summary paragraph states how many banks are tracked, which rows are checked by hand, the Fed's target range midpoint, the ECB deposit facility rate, the highest and lowest rate in the table, and how many rates come from a bank's own register rather than the BIS series.
• Region buttons. All, Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa. Each regional button shows how many jurisdictions it holds.
• Table columns.
  • Jurisdiction: the ISO country code, the country name, and the bank name underneath. A small dagger after the bank name means the instrument differs from what the name suggests; hover the bank name for the explanation.
  • Instrument: the rate the bank sets (for example a target range, a deposit facility rate, a bank rate).
  • Rate: the level in percent. "no policy rate" means the jurisdiction sets none (Singapore steers its exchange rate instead). "withheld" means the source has not published for longer than the page's age limit, so the value is hidden rather than shown as current. "n/a" means no sourced observation.
  • Last change: the size of the last move in basis points and its date. The number is coloured by direction: red for a hike, green for a cut. The colour marks the direction only and is not a judgement. An asterisk means the change is known only to the month, because older history is a month-end series. Hover for the exact wording.
  • Observed: the date of the latest observation. An amber "-Nd" tag means that observation is N days older than the freshest rate in the table (a rate stays true until it changes, so older is unconfirmed, not wrong). "STALLED Nd" means the source has published nothing for N days. "STALE" appears on a hand-maintained row whose bank has held a scheduled decision since the value was last checked.
  • Source: a link to the page the number came from, labelled BIS, Bank (the bank's own register), FRED, or Manual (checked by hand; no automated feed). After it come up to three links to the bank's own stats, calendar (meeting dates) and press pages. Hover the source label for how that row is sourced.
• Notes under the table. The source and citation line for the BIS, the date rates are observed to, how many rates come from bank registers, a lag notice, and the footnotes for the asterisk and the dagger.
• On a narrow screen the table turns into one card per jurisdiction with the same fields.

• Click a region button to filter. Click Jurisdiction, Rate or Last change to sort; click again to reverse. Unpublished or withheld rates always sink to the bottom when you sort by rate.
• Nothing is remembered between visits.

• Summary strip: Jurisdictions (with how many are read directly from the bank and how many are stalled), Easing 12m (banks with a net cut over 12 months, plus how many are tightening and unchanged), Moves 90d (rate changes in the last 90 days), Highest rate, Lowest rate, and Next G10 decision.
• Moves, last 90 days: every rate change in the window, newest first: Jurisdiction, Date, Move in basis points (red up, green down) with a bar sized to the move, and To (the level after the move).
• Policy rates: the board. Columns: Jurisdiction (with a colour swatch for its region), Bank and instrument, Rate with a bar (bar colour is the region, not a market reading), Last chg in bp, Changed (date), Hold (months since the last change), Net 12m and Net 24m (net basis points over 12 and 24 months), Stance (Tighten, Ease, Hold, No hist.), Source (BIS, Bank, FRED, Manual; links out when a source page exists) and Observed. Dimmed rows are withheld or have no policy rate. Columns drop off as the window narrows.
• Next decisions: bars counting G10 rate decisions per day over the next 21 days, a "Next:" tag, and a list of the next scheduled decision per bank. These dates are a convenience from the shared macro calendar; each bank's own calendar, linked on its row, is the authority.
• Stance mix, 12 months: how many jurisdictions are easing, unchanged, tightening or have no history over the window, with counts and shares.
• Compare rates: a step chart of month-end policy rate history for up to five jurisdictions (it starts with the US, euro area, UK and Japan). A line labelled "mid" is a target range drawn at its midpoint.

• On the Policy rates board, order by Rate, Region or Latest, filter with the region buttons (All, Americas, Europe, APAC, MEA, each with a count), or type in the search box (country, code or bank). The board pages in its header bar.
• Click any row in Moves, Policy rates or Next decisions to open the bank drawer on the right. It shows This number (level, instrument, observed date, age, where it comes from with a link), History (a sparkline), Moves (every dated change), Decisions read from the bank (with "effective" dates, and tags such as quarantined or superseded where they apply), Scheduled decisions, and The bank's own pages (home, statistics, calendar, press). Press Escape or the close button to shut it.
• In Compare rates, pick a window (5Y, 10Y, 25Y), add a jurisdiction with Add…, and remove one with the × on its pill.
• If your session has lapsed, the cycle columns show a note asking you to reload; the rates shown are then the public table.

To see who moved most recently, sort by Last change on the public page, or read Moves, last 90 days on the desk. For FX-focused central bank pages by currency, see the forex section of this chapter. For the Fed specifically, the Fed hub has the FOMC calendar and decision pricing.

Money markets

Every US overnight rate, where it sits inside the Fed's target range, and what it last did. It answers "is overnight funding trading where the Fed wants it, and is anything strained?"

• Corridor line. One sentence above the table: the federal funds target range, its midpoint, interest on reserve balances (IORB), and the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) award rate.
• Rates table. One row per instrument, grouped and labelled underneath: Administered, Unsecured overnight, Secured overnight, SOFR averages, Bills (investment basis or discount basis), Commercial paper, Quantities.
  • Rate: the instrument name. Level: its latest value. 1D, 1W, 1M: changes in basis points over a day, a week and a month.
  • In band (position in the range): 0% at the floor of the target range, 100% at the ceiling. It is not clamped, so a rate printing outside the range shows below 0% or above 100% and is coloured amber.
  • vs IORB: distance from interest on reserve balances in basis points.
  • Volume: dollars transacted behind the print, in billions (where the publisher reports it).
  • As of: each row's own observation date (publishers run on different clocks). Source: NY Fed (the New York Fed's own publication, which carries the volume and percentiles) or FRED.
  • A note under the table explains that bill rows quoted on a discount basis are not directly comparable with policy rates, and gives the date the administered rates are already set through.
• The corridor, last 12 months. A chart with the target range as a shaded band, the administered rates (IORB, ON RRP) drawn as steps, and market rates inside. A gap in a market rate line is a day with no print.
• Bills against the policy midpoint. Each Treasury bill tenor's yield minus the policy midpoint in basis points, with the caveat that applies to that comparison.

Sort by Level or 1D by clicking the column header. Hover column headers and cells for definitions. On a phone, rows become cards.

• Summary strip: Fed funds target (range, midpoint and width), IORB (with ON RRP and the discount rate), EFFR and SOFR (each with its distance from IORB), SOFR volume, and ON RRP take-up.
• The Fed corridor: the same band chart, with a window switch of 3M, 6M or 1Y.
• Where rates sit: two tabs. Overnight draws each overnight rate as a marker on a bar spanning the range, with ticks for IORB and ON RRP, plus its level and band position. Bills lists each bill's yield and its distance from the midpoint.
• Spreads: six spreads (SOFR minus IORB, SOFR minus EFFR, EFFR minus IORB, SOFR minus ON RRP, SOFR minus BGCR, financial minus non-financial commercial paper) with a one-year sparkline, Now (bp, coloured by sign), Pctl (today's spread ranked against its own one-year window; refused when the sample is too small) and the one-year Median.
• Every instrument: the full registry grouped as above, with Level, 1D, 1M, vs IORB, In band, 1-99th (the width between the 1st and 99th percentile of the day's transactions), Volume, Source and Observed. A "d" marks a discount-basis quote.
• Funding stress: two tabs. Dispersion charts the 1st-to-99th percentile width of each day's trades over a year for the rate you pick (the interquartile width dotted). Calendar compares month ends, quarter ends, year ends and tax dates with ordinary days: n (how many such dates), Spread and Excess (mean spread minus ordinary days), Width and its Excess, and the most recent dates. Under the minimum sample no mean is printed, and the n is shown instead.
• Repo and reverse repo operations: every Fed operation in the last 90 days: Date, Operation, Accepted and Submitted ($bn), Cpty (counterparties) and Rate (award rate; a dim figure is the offering rate when there was no award).

Switch the corridor window, the Overnight/Bills tab, the Dispersion/Calendar tab and the rate it applies to. Filter Every instrument with the search box (instrument or group). Click a row in Where rates sit or Every instrument to open the rate drawer: level, as-of date, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month and 1 year changes, a history chart, and the publisher, publication, series start date and source. Long lists page in their header bars.

The fastest stress read is the In band column: a rate drifting toward or past 100% is trading at the top of the corridor. For the Fed's balance sheet and reserves, see the Fed hub.

Fed hub

The Federal Reserve on one page: when the FOMC meets, what it published, how decision markets price each outcome, where overnight rates sit in the corridor, and what the balance sheet is doing.

• On this page links jump to Decision odds, Corridor, Balance sheet and Calendar. A closed Method disclosure explains the rules: decision odds are prices of event contracts on Polymarket, not a forecast, and the outcomes need not sum to exactly 100; each chart day is the last price captured that UTC day; a move is listed when one outcome changed by 5 points or more day to day; balance-sheet changes compare observations 28 and 364 days apart; SOMA holdings are par values.
• Summary strip: Next FOMC decision, Highest-priced outcome, Fed funds target range, Reserve balances, SOMA holdings.
• Rate decision odds by meeting. Pick a meeting (each shows its date and days to go). A chart draws each outcome's price over time (No change, Cut 25 bp, Cut 50 bp or more, Hike 25 bp, Hike 50 bp or more), with the 2-year Treasury yield alongside. Now, by outcome shows the current price of each outcome as bars. Largest day-to-day moves on this ladder lists each big move with the Fed events that happened that day or the day before (shown by date, not claimed as the cause).
• Kalshi comparison. Anonymous visitors see a prompt to sign in; signed-in readers see Polymarket and Kalshi side by side per outcome with Kalshi open interest.
• Where overnight rates sit in the range. Each overnight rate as a position from floor (0%) to ceiling (100%), plus the target range, IORB, ON RRP award rate and discount window primary credit rate.
• Reserves and the balance sheet. Weekly H.4.1 series via FRED in billions, with 4-week and 52-week changes (ON RRP daily).
• SOMA holdings by security type. Par value by type for the latest week; switch between Level, 4 weeks and 52 weeks, with a mix bar.
• FOMC calendar. Scheduled decision days with days to go and whether projections are published. Recent meeting rows link to the Statement, Minutes and Projections ("none" when no projections were published).
• Monetary policy releases. Federal Reserve press releases, newest first.
• New York Fed operations. The latest result of each operation type: date, accepted amount, counterparties, rate.
• More on the Fed. Related pages with one line each.

• Summary strip: Next FOMC decision, Highest-priced outcome, Widest venue gap (the outcome where Polymarket and Kalshi differ most), Fed funds target (with IORB and ON RRP), Reserve balances (4-week change), SOMA holdings (52-week change).
• Rate decision odds: the price chart per outcome for the meeting you pick in the meeting tabs.
• 2-year Treasury yield / Implied policy rate: two tabs. 2Y charts the 2-year yield against the target range. Path is the Fed futures path: the end-of-month policy rate implied after each upcoming meeting, against today's target range. It is our calculation from 30-Day Fed Funds futures closes, not a venue price and not a forecast by Kresmion: each month's contract prices that month's average effective rate (100 minus the price), and the change at a decision month is split into whole 25 bp steps.
• Now, by outcome: tab Prices lists each outcome with Poly (Polymarket price), a fill bar, Kalshi, Futures (the futures-implied probability), Gap (Polymarket minus Kalshi, in points), Volume and Book ("thin" when the venue reports under $50k of liquidity on that leg). Hover a Futures cell for the expected change in basis points at that meeting. Tab Gap charts the Polymarket minus Kalshi gap over time. A gap is a difference between two order books, not an error in either. Below sits the list of largest daily moves with the events beside them, and, when other markets exist on the same meeting, a link to them.
• Corridor: tab Rates (each overnight rate's Level, In range, vs IORB and Date) and tab Ops (latest repo and reverse repo operations).
• Fed holdings: tab H.4.1 (weekly balance-sheet series with Level, 4w and 52w changes) and tab SOMA (holdings by security type with Share).
• Fed calendar: a list you filter with the view menu: All events, FOMC, Fed releases, US data (high-importance US releases), Meeting docs (Statement, Minutes, SEP per meeting). Upcoming decisions come first, then the past 90 days newest first.
• Method and related pages (button in the page header) opens the method notes and the related links.

Pick a meeting to redraw the odds. On the desk, switch tabs in each panel; rows in the calendar open the release or document. Nothing is saved between visits.

Polymarket, Kalshi and the futures column are three independent reads of the same meeting; where they disagree, the Gap column and chart show by how much. Minutes arrive about three weeks after each meeting.

Sovereign spreads

Each country's 10-year government bond yield and how far it sits above or below the German Bund and the US 10-year Treasury, in basis points, with the 1-month and 12-month change.

• Header with the newest month in the table. The closed Method disclosure explains how yields are built: monthly averages of 10-year benchmark yields as published (ECB long-term rates for EU members, OECD long-term rates for other OECD countries; Colombia from the OECD Data Explorer, China from the Ministry of Finance curve, the US from the H.15 10-year constant maturity series).
• A bold line reads Market-implied credit: 10Y spread (Kresmion calculation, not a credit rating). A wider spread means investors demand more yield than for Germany or the US; it mixes credit risk with liquidity, supply and, outside the euro area, currency and inflation expectations.
• Summary box with the newest month (flagged "stale" when a newer month has not arrived yet) and source links.
• 10-year spreads by country. Columns: Country, 10Y % (monthly average), then Spread vs German Bund, bp (vs Bund, 1M, 12M), then Spread vs US Treasury, bp (vs UST, 1M, 12M), then As of (the month both legs describe). The 1M and 12M cells are heat tiles: red when the spread widened, green when it narrowed, deeper with size (full at 60 bp). A coloured badge under the yield names the source (ECB, OECD, H.15, MOF); a note explains special constructions such as Colombia and China. "older" flags a country whose newest month trails the table's newest month.
• Sources and terms and Cite this data close the page.

Click any column header to sort; the default is vs Bund, widest first. Hover a header for its definition.

• A vs Bund / vs UST switch at the top sets which spread the summary and moves panel use.
• Summary strip: Widest and Tightest spread (with the country and its 12-month change), Widened most and Narrowed most over one month, and Countries (how many are ranked in the newest month).
• Largest 1M moves: countries ranked by the size of the one-month change in either direction, with the spread, 1M and 12M tiles (red widened, green narrowed) and the source.
• 10-year spreads by country: the full table with 10Y %, vs Bund, Bund 1M, Bund 12M, vs UST, UST 1M, UST 12M and As of ("old" marks a country that has not published the newest month). Sort with the tabs: Spread, 1M, 12M, 10Y, A-Z.
• Method and limits: the method text, marked "not a credit rating".

Data is monthly and trails the market by several weeks (the ECB publishes each month around the middle of the next). Sovereign credit ratings, where the rated government publishes them, are on the signed-in country page. For daily sovereign yields and curves, use the yield curves desk (Tools › Cross-Asset & Macro › Yield Curves, Cmd-K WB or GC).

Economic surprise index

How far recent economic releases landed above or below the consensus that preceded them, measured against each indicator's own history. Above zero means releases beat consensus on balance over the window.

• Index, trailing 90 days: the headline level, a standardised score. Green above zero, red below, amber when near zero. The colour shows the sign of the reading, not a view.
• Percentile: where today's reading sits among the daily readings of the last five years (the sub-line states how many).
• Change, 1 week and Change, 1 month.
• Releases in window: how many scored releases the window holds; "thin sample" when it is small. If there are too few, the page prints no index reading and says how many it needs.
• Inflation, separately: the inflation sub-index with its sample size. It is reported on its own and never added into the headline, because a hotter print is a beat in the data sense, which is not the same as good news.
• A one-sentence reading of the headline, then a chart of the index over the last two years.
• How the window's prints landed: a table by category (Category, Sub-index, Beat, Missed, In line, Releases) plus a Headline row. Beats and misses are counted in the direction that means a stronger economy, so a lower-than-expected unemployment rate counts as a beat. Categories tagged "separate" are outside the headline.
• The source, method and a licence caveat close the page: the individual releases and their consensus figures are shown only on the signed-in desk.

• A window switch at the top: 30D, 60D, 90D, 180D. It sets the window for the contributions and releases panels.
• Summary strip: Headline (with the 1-week change), 1M change, Percentile, Beat / missed (with in-line count and sample), Inflation (separate).
• Headline mix: a short line naming what drives the headline.
• The index: tab Chart draws the index over 1Y, 2Y, 5Y or 10Y, one line per economy that serves an index, with each economy's inflation sub-index dotted. Tab Coverage lists each economy: whether the index is served, scored releases, total releases, and the reason when it is not.
• Category sub-indices: each category with a bar, z (the sub-index), n, Beat, Miss and In line, plus an "All scored" row.
• What moved the headline: the largest contributions in the window: Release, Date and Contrib. (its share of the level).
• Releases in the window: tab Scored lists every scored release: Date, Indicator ("inv" marks one where a higher print means a weaker economy), Category, Actual, Consensus, Surprise (actual minus consensus in its own unit), z (standardised, positive means a stronger economy), Basis n (history behind the standardisation), Weight and Contrib. The Contrib. column sums to the level. Tab Refused lists releases inside the window that are not in the index, with the reason. Filter with the search box.
• Indicators: every indicator with Scored, Hit (share of prints that beat consensus toward a stronger economy, shown only from 8 scored prints), Mean z, Last and Last z. Click a row to open its drawer with each print's actual against its consensus.
• Reactions: tab Points scatters each standardised surprise against what the market did 30 or 60 minutes after the print (switch with 30m / 60m); a fit line is drawn only from ten paired observations. Tab Slopes lists, per indicator, n, r (correlation) and Slope (the move per one standard deviation of surprise).

The consensus behind every number comes from the macro calendar feed; this page is kept out of search engines while that source question is open, and says so. For the release dates themselves, see the economic calendar (Cmd-K ECO).

Macro regime (public)

One read per weekday session of the cross-asset backdrop: a label from Strong Risk-On to Strong Risk-Off, the composite score behind it, and how long it has held.

• Header with the date of the latest reading. The closed Method disclosure gives the rules as the page states them: fifteen inputs, each scored as a z-score of its recent change against its own history and clipped at plus or minus 3, averaged into four factors weighted Growth 20%, Liquidity 40%, Risk appetite 30% and Volatility 10%; the composite is smoothed on every run (50% new raw, 50% the previous session's smoothed score); the label is a banding of the smoothed score (edges at about plus or minus 0.17 and 0.5) with hysteresis: a label is entered at those edges but only left toward zero once the score is 0.05 back past its edge (Risk-On is kept above about +0.12, Risk-Off below about -0.12, the Strong labels beyond about plus or minus 0.45), while a move away from zero, or across it, changes the label at once. Conviction is the weaker of the share of factor weight pointing the way of the label and the score's distance from the edge where the label would be lost (high from 70 out of 100, medium from 40, low below). The engine computes on weekdays only, so every reading is a session and there are no weekend readings; a regime change is announced on Kresmion's public channels only after the new label has held for five consecutive sessions. It describes the backdrop the inputs show; it is not a forecast.
• Regime card: the current label, coloured green for risk-on labels, red for risk-off, sand for neutral (the colours identify the label only), and its date ("no newer reading stored" when the latest day is missing).
• Composite score: the smoothed score; above zero leans risk-on.
• Conviction and dwell: the engine's conviction with its figure out of 100, how many sessions the regime has held, "changed on this reading" on a transition day, and the score the label is kept above or below (for Neutral, the two edges where it would change).
• Summary box in one or two sentences, with sources.
• The last N sessions: a strip with one bar per session; bar height is the score and colour is the label. Hover a bar for its date, label and score.
• Regime spells in that window: each run of the same label, newest first: Regime, From, To, Sessions.
• What drives the reading, with a free account: what signing in adds (the factor breakdown, every z-scored input with its date, the written interpretation, the cross-asset overview).

To see the factors and inputs, sign in and open Cmd-K REGIME.

Economic statistics

Official statistics for every covered economy in one table, as the World Bank and the OECD publish them: annual for most economies, monthly or quarterly for OECD members. No forecasts by Kresmion.

• Header line: how many economies, how many World Bank and OECD series are stored, and when they were last fetched. Each cell is the newest published value.
• Summary strip: Economies (in view, out of the total), Series (distinct series stored), Newest fetch (rows do not share one date, because economies publish on different days).
• Ranked: (indicator). The economies in view ranked on one indicator: Economy, the value, and Period of its newest value with the source (WB = World Bank, annual; OECD = monthly or quarterly).
• Economies by indicator. One row per economy with columns GDP (current US$, annual), Real GDP growth (% per year), Inflation (CPI, % y/y), Unemployment (% of labour force), Industrial production (% y/y, OECD), Retail volume (% y/y, OECD), Current account (% of GDP), Govt debt (central, % of GDP) and Population. A dot means no published value. Growth-type columns are tinted green above zero and red below, deeper with size; the tint marks the sign, not a judgement. Hover a figure for its period, source and series.
• How to read this table: the method text, and the sources and terms (World Bank CC BY 4.0, OECD terms).

• Search by name or ISO-3 code (for example BRA) and pick a region from the menu at the top.
• In Ranked, choose the indicator from the menu and High or Low.
• In the main table, choose the sort column from the menu and High/Low (or A-Z/Z-A for Economy). The table pages in its header bar.

For market-based country data and the sovereign ratings panel, use the signed-in country page (/macro/country/<ISO2>), linked from each economy page.

Economy statistics

Every World Bank and OECD series stored for one economy, with a chart and the OECD's own projections.

• Header with the country name and ISO-3 code.
• Every series: Indicator, Unit, Latest (newest published value), Period, y/y (year on year, our calculation; in points for a rate), Trend (sparkline of up to the last 40 periods), From (first period), Src (source) and Open.
• History chart: the series selected in the table, as published. The Level / Y/Y switch changes the view. Where the OECD has published projections, they continue the line dashed with dots.
• OECD Economic Outlook projections: the OECD's projections for this economy by year, as the OECD published them, with the last historical year; they are not Kresmion figures. The edition and publication date are in the panel header.
• Sources: the datasets and terms links.

Click a row in Every series to chart it. Switch Level or Y/Y.

One series

The full history of one statistic for one economy, compared with up to five other economies.

• Summary strip: Latest (as published, with its period), Year on year (our calculation from the published values), Previous period (and the change to the latest), History (number of observations and the first period).
• History chart: your economy and any compared ones, each in its own colour, with the OECD projection dashed when there is one. A reference line at zero appears on the Y/Y view and for rates. When you compare index levels, the page reminds you that base periods differ and to use the Y/Y view.
• Newest periods: Period, Value (as published) and y/y.
• About this series: Source (with a link to the dataset), Code, Cadence, Licence (linked), Attribution, Source updated, Year on year (what the y/y means for this unit), Projection, Method.

• Switch Level / Y/Y. Type a name or ISO code in "Compare: name or ISO code" to add an economy (up to five beside yours); remove one with its ×. An economy without this series is shown as "(no series)".
• Your choices are kept in the address (?view=yoy, ?compare=), so you can bookmark or share a comparison.

Capital flows

The capital flows desk follows where money is positioned and parked: large speculators in futures (CFTC Commitments of Traders), large funds in US equities (SEC Form 13F), foreign holders of US Treasuries (US Treasury TIC) and cross-border credit and policy rates (Bank for International Settlements). Every page in this group is signed in; open any of them from the desktop menu Data › Capital Flows. Typing /capital-flows on its own opens the overview.

All five pages share the same terminal layout: a title strip with the page name and a context line (source, report date, when the data was last fetched), a strip of headline figures (KPIs) and a grid of panels. Each KPI and numeric column carries its own horizon (weekly, quarter, 1M) and an "as of" date on hover. At the bottom, a Sources link opens the Capital flows entry of the Data sources page (/settings/data-sources#flows), where the full source text for each page is listed.

Capital flows overview

One screen that answers three questions at once: where has futures positioning last reached an extreme, which foreign holders changed their US Treasury holdings the most last month, and did 13F filers add or exit more positions last quarter.

• Title strip. "Capital flows", with the context line "Futures positioning (CFTC), 13F holdings (SEC) and Treasury holders (TIC)" and the time of the last fetch. The page refreshes itself every minute.
• COT markets. How many CFTC Commitments of Traders markets are on file (weekly data).
• Extreme readings. How many extreme positioning readings were recorded across those markets in the last 14 days.
• 13F funds. How many funds have a 13F-HR filing on file for the latest quarter; the quarter is the "as of".
• Treasury holders. The month-on-month change, in billions of dollars, in the holdings of the major foreign holders of US Treasuries, as a signed figure (for example +$12.3B). Green means holdings rose, red means they fell; a change smaller than $1B stays neutral. The TIC month is the "as of".
• Where futures positioning last hit an extreme. One row per market whose latest extreme reading is on file, newest report first:
  • Market: the market's display name.
  • Reading: "Extreme long" or "Extreme short" (the side of the extreme).
  • Net z, 3y: the large-speculator (non-commercial) net as a share of open interest, as a z-score against its own trailing three years (156 weekly reports), with its sign, for example +2.31σ. It is shown in neutral ink: the sign tells you the direction, the size tells you how unusual it is. It is the same reading as the 3y z on COT positioning.
  • Report: the CFTC report date (Tuesday positions). A report older than three weeks is dimmed and shows its age ("3 weeks ago"), so an old extreme is not mistaken for a current one.
• Largest Treasury holder changes. Two rows from the latest TIC month against the month before: Largest add and Largest cut, each with the holder (country) and the 1M change in billions of dollars. Changes under $0.5B read as flat.
• What 13F filers did last quarter. Two counts from the latest quarter's 13F filings: Adds (new positions plus large adds) and Exits (closed positions plus large exits). The bar and the sentence under it give adds as a share of all flagged position changes ("Adds were 58% of the flagged position changes in 2026Q2"). It is a count of position changes, not a dollar flow.

• Refresh (top right) reloads the data now; it reads "Updating" while it runs.
• Hover a KPI or a column header for its full definition and as-of date.
• Hover a market name in the COT table for its full CFTC name.

• The overview's Net z, 3y is the COT page's 3y z; the COT page's Method gives the full definition.
• For cross-border credit and policy rates, open BIS statistics; they are not summarised here.

COT positioning

Where large speculators stand in each CFTC futures market against their own last three years, which markets are stretched, and how one market's positioning has moved week by week over the past year.

• Title strip. "Futures positioning (COT)", with the number of CFTC futures markets, the "positions as of" date, and the reminder "weekly, lagged · positioning context, not a trade signal". The CFTC publishes every Friday for positions held the prior Tuesday, so every figure is a few days old by design.
• Markets. How many markets are tracked, and underneath how many sit 2 or more standard deviations (2σ) from their three-year mean.
• Positions as of. The Tuesday the latest report describes, "Tuesday positions, released Friday", and how many days ago that was.
• Nearest its 3y high / Nearest its 3y low. The market whose speculator net sits highest (or lowest) in its own three-year range, with its index value ("index 97 of 100") and up to two markets tied with it. These name positioning extremes, not a call.
• Detector flags. How many markets' latest report was flagged as a long or short extreme, followed by their names (or "none").
• Stale note. When the newest report on file is more than 14 days old, a "Stale" line under the KPIs says so; the figures are then the last confirmed readings.
• Positioning by market (the board). One row per market, from the latest report:
  • A coloured square before the name marks the market's group: energy and metals (commodities colour), rates, FX, equity index, crypto, and volatility and other (neutral). It only identifies the group; hover the name to read it.
  • 3y idx: the 3-year COT index, the speculator net rescaled to 0 to 100 within its own three-year range (0 = the 3y low, 100 = the 3y high). 3y range draws the same value as a marker on a bar.
  • 3y z: the speculator share of open interest minus its three-year mean, divided by its three-year standard deviation (the current week is left out of its own baseline). Values at 2σ or beyond are bold.
  • Spec net: the large-speculator (non-commercial) net position in contracts, signed (positive = net long).
  • Wk chg: the change in the speculator net since the prior release, in contracts; the only signed colour on the board (green up, red down).
  • % OI: the speculator net as a share of open interest.
  • Positioning: words that follow the 3y z deterministically: "near 3y high" or "near 3y low" at |z| of 2 or more, "above 3y mean" or "below 3y mean" at 1 or more, otherwise "inside 3y range", and "no baseline" when three years of history are not yet available. They describe where the speculator share sits against its own past, never a side: a net long market can be "near 3y low" (longs at their smallest in three years). Hover for the full sentence with the side and the size.
  • Flag: "long extreme" or "short extreme" when the detector marked that report.
  • 52w net: a sparkline of the speculator net over the last 52 weekly reports.
  • Futures: for a market Kresmion also tracks as a futures contract, a link to its futures page, named by its root ("CL →" for crude oil); "--" otherwise. The mapped markets are WTI crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, copper, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq minis, the 10-year T-note, the euro, yen, pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, and bitcoin.
  • Comm net: the commercial (hedger) net position, contracts. Open int: open interest, contracts.
  • On narrow screens the right-hand columns are hidden first. A row whose report is older than the page's latest report says so on hover.
• <Market>: speculator net. A line chart of the selected market's speculator net, one point per weekly report, with a zero line ("flat"). The panel header gives the positioning words and z; hover the header for the full sentence and the 52-week high and low. Hover the chart for the report date, share of open interest and z on that week. The header also carries Alert and, for a mapped market, "<ROOT> futures →".
• <Market>: weekly reports. The selected market's last 52 reports, newest first: Report date, Spec net, % OI, 3y z, Comm net, Open int and Flag ("long ext" or "short ext"; hover for the full word).
• A "--" anywhere means the value is not available yet.

• Sort the board with the tabs on its header: Group (the default: grouped, then A to Z), |z| (most stretched first, either side), Wk chg (largest weekly change), 3y idx (highest index first). The board is paged; use the pager on the panel header.
• Click a row to chart that market and load its weekly reports. The URL updates to ?market=<market>, so you can bookmark or share the view. With no market in the URL, the page opens on the most stretched market (largest |z|).
• Method (top right) opens the method text: what commercials and non-commercials are, how the 3y z, 3y COT index, Wk chg, Positioning and Flag are computed, and what the group colours mean.
• Alert on the chart panel sets an alert on the selected market: Speculators stretched versus their 3-year range (stretched long or short, at a z you choose) or Speculator net position flips sign. See Alerts settings.
• Hover any column header for its definition and as-of date.

• To find the most crowded markets, sort by |z|; to find what moved this week, sort by Wk chg.
• Stretched positioning describes crowding. It can persist or unwind; the page does not forecast either.
• The capital flows overview lists the markets whose latest extreme is on file and links each straight to its view here.

Institutional holdings (13F)

The largest reported positions of the funds Kresmion tracks, quarter by quarter, as filed on SEC Form 13F-HR: who holds what, how big each position is in the fund's book, and whether the share count rose or fell against the prior quarter.

• Title strip. "Institutional holdings (13F)", "Largest reported positions of tracked funds, by market value", the latest quarter on file, and "loaded monthly" with the fetch time. 13F filings are due 45 days after each quarter end, so the newest quarter always lags.
• Holdings shown. How many positions the current filters return, "of N" in total, top by value.
• Market value. The summed market value of the rows shown. With "All quarters" selected it is withheld ("pick one quarter to sum"), because the same holding repeats once per quarter and a sum would count one book several times.
• Funds. How many distinct filers appear in the rows shown.
• Added / cut. How many rows had a share count above / below the prior quarter's.
• 13F calendar. One line on the filing schedule: "Next 2026Q3 · due Nov 14" when the latest quarter is loaded, "<quarter> filed · loads <date>" when filings are in but not yet loaded, or "<quarter> due, not loaded".
• Largest positions (the table).
  • Fund (hover for its SEC CIK number), Ticker ("no ticker" when the security has none), Company.
  • A small "put" or "call" tag beside the company marks an options overlay reported on the 13F: its market value is the underlying notional, not a share position.
  • Quarter, Shares held at quarter end, Value (market value at quarter end), % port (share of that fund's 13F portfolio).
  • QoQ: the share-count change against the prior quarter, signed and coloured (green up, red down, neutral under 0.5%). "new" means no prior-quarter row (first quarter reported); "resumed" means the prior quarter held only a placeholder-size position; "--" means no usable prior-quarter row.
  • Reading: a neutral word for the change: "new position", "large add", "increased", "added", "held", "trimmed", "reduced", "closed", "large exit", "consensus add" or "consensus cut". A reading that does not agree with the actual share change is hidden ("--"), so the word never contradicts the number.
• Funds in view. Each fund among the rows shown, with its number of Rows and their summed Value (withheld for all quarters).
• 13F calendar (panel). The filing facts: latest quarter loaded, expected quarter, status ("current", "filed, loading", "due, not loaded"), next quarter, quarter end, filing deadline, next check, cadence and a note.

• Fund picker (title strip): "All tracked funds" or one fund.
• Quarter picker: each available quarter (the newest is marked "(latest)", and is the default) or "All quarters".
• Clear appears when any filter is set and resets fund, ticker and quarter.
• Ticker search box on the table header: type a ticker; it applies after a short pause.
• Sort tabs on the table: Value (default), Weight (% of portfolio), QoQ (largest increase first), Fund (A to Z, then value). The table and the funds list are paged.
• Click a fund in "Funds in view" to filter the table to that fund; click it again to widen back to all funds.
• When no row matches, the empty state offers Clear filters.

Only the ticker in a positions row is a link; the rest of the row is not.

• To see who holds a stock, type its ticker in the search box and sort by Value or Weight.
• To read one fund's book, pick it in the Fund picker and sort by Weight.
• Use one quarter at a time for value totals; "All quarters" is for scanning history.
• The capital flows overview gives the quarter's adds versus exits at a glance.

Foreign holders of US Treasuries (TIC)

Who holds US Treasury securities abroad, how much, and who added or cut the most last month, from the US Treasury International Capital (TIC) report "Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities".

• Title strip. "Foreign holders of US Treasuries", the total held by all reporting countries, the number of countries, the month, and the reminder that the Treasury publishes with about a six-week lag.
• Foreign holdings. Total foreign holdings of US Treasuries at month end, all reporting countries.
• Top N holders. The net month-on-month change across the major holders, in billions of dollars, signed and coloured; underneath, how many of them changed.
• Largest increase / Largest decrease. The reporting country with the biggest rise / fall, with its change in billions.
• Flagged moves. How many rows passed the flag thresholds this month.
• Thresholds note. "A major move needs both $10B or more AND 3% or more month on month; a flagged move needs $5B or more OR 3% or more."
• Top N major holders and Other reporting countries. The same columns for each group: Country, Holdings ($ billions), 1M $ (change in billions), 1M % (change in percent) and Reading. Changes within $0.5B read as flat; outside it they are green (increase) or red (decrease). A major move is bold. Reading is a neutral tag: "Accumulation", "Selloff", "Major accumulation" or "Major selloff"; hover it for the row's rationale.
• Moves past the thresholds. Only the flagged rows, largest first, with Country, 1M $ and Reading.

• Sort tabs on the major holders panel (they sort both holder tables): Size (largest holdings first, the default), $ cut, $ add, % cut, % add. Your choice is kept in the URL (?sort=) and remembered in this browser for your next visit.
• Hover a Reading tag for the per-row rationale.
• Tables are paged on their headers.

• To find the month's largest seller, sort by $ cut; for relative moves among smaller holders, sort Other reporting countries by % cut or % add.
• TIC holdings are reported by the country where the securities are held in custody, so a financial centre can stand in for investors elsewhere. Treat a country as a custody location, not always as the final owner.

BIS statistics

Three cross-country reads from the Bank for International Settlements data portal: where central bank policy rates stand and which ones just moved, where private credit looks stretched (credit-to-GDP gap and debt service ratios), and how far each currency's real effective exchange rate sits from its 2020 level.

• Title strip. "BIS statistics: Policy rates, credit and debt-service ratios, effective exchange rates", with the fetch time.
• Rates changed. How many central banks' policy rate differs from their prior reading on file, "of N central banks".
• Flagged elevated. Countries whose credit gap is above 10% or whose debt service ratio is above 20% (latest quarter).
• On watch. Countries whose credit gap is above 2% or debt service ratio above 15%, below the elevated lines.
• Countries. Countries with any BIS indicator on file, and how many have credit data.
• Policy rates. Central banks with a policy rate on file.
• Policy rates (panel). One row per central bank: a two-letter country chip and name, a bar scaled to the highest rate, Rate (latest reading, %), Chg (change against the prior reading, in percentage points; "no prior" when there is none) and As of. A rate level is neutral ink; only the change carries a sign colour. Hover Chg for the prior reading.
• Where credit looks stretched. Flagged countries first: Credit gap (credit-to-GDP gap, %), DSR (debt service ratio of the private non-financial sector, %), Credit, $B (total credit to the private non-financial sector, $ billions), EER (real broad effective exchange rate, 2020 = 100) and Flag ("watch", "elevated", or "normal"). The flag is the worse of the credit gap and DSR readings, on Kresmion's fixed thresholds stated in the panel description. Hover a figure for its period. Countries with only a policy rate appear in the rates panel instead.
• Distance from 2020 (EER). Each currency area's real broad effective exchange rate against 2020 = 100, drawn as a bar either side of a centre line (right of the line: above its 2020 level; left: below). Reading says "overvalued" above 110 and "undervalued" below 90 (fixed thresholds), otherwise "within 90-110". This is a level against a base year, not a recent move.

• Sort policy rates with the tabs: Moved (largest change first, the default), Rate (highest first), A-Z.
• Tables are paged on their headers. Hover column headers for the BIS series each one comes from.

Rows on this page are not links.

• Start with Moved to see which central banks changed policy since their last reading, then open Central banks for meeting detail.
• A high debt service ratio describes how much income goes to servicing debt; the flag marks it against fixed lines, not against each country's own history.

Foreign exchange

Kresmion has two sets of currency pages. The four Forex desk pages (/forex/overview, /forex/calendar, /forex/countries, /forex/signals) are signed-in workspace pages built on a 5-minute market snapshot of the major pairs and the dollar index. The six FX section pages under /markets/forex (Monitor, Positioning, Central banks, Carry, Seasonality, Volatility) are public and built only on official daily reference data: the ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates, the Federal Reserve H.10 release, CFTC Commitments of Traders and BIS central bank policy rates. Anyone can open the /markets/forex pages without an account. When you are signed in, the same URL shows a denser one-screen "terminal" layout of the same numbers; the address in your browser does not change. Each section below says what differs between the two layouts.

All six /markets/forex pages appear in the desktop menu under Markets › Forex, after the four desk pages. On the public layout every page carries a row of section tabs (Monitor, Positioning, Central banks, Carry, Seasonality, Volatility); the signed-in layouts drop that row (the menu lists the same pages) except on a single central bank's page.

None of the FX pages has its own Cmd-K function code. Type the page name ("FX monitor", "carry", "positioning") in the Cmd-K palette to find it.

Forex overview

One screen that answers "what did currencies do today, what is scheduled this week, and where do policy rates and speculative positioning stand". It is the starting point of the signed-in Forex desk.

• Title strip. "Forex", followed by how many major pairs are on the board and the time of the rate snapshot ("rates <time>"). If the snapshot has not been written yet a line under the KPI strip says so; the page checks again every 2 minutes.
• KPI strip.
  • ICE dollar index (DXY): the ICE US Dollar Index level with its 1D change. It is not the Federal Reserve's broad dollar index shown on the FX monitor. The tooltip says in fixed words whether the day's move was "up more than 0.2%", "down more than 0.2%" or "within +/-0.2%". It is a band, not a view on direction.
  • DXY 24h range: the index's low and high over the last 24 hours.
  • US 2Y and US 10Y: the 2-year and 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yields from FRED (daily H.15 series), each dated by its own observation. These series usually trail the current day by one day.
  • 2s10s: 10-year minus 2-year yield in basis points. A positive value means the curve slopes upward; a negative one means it is inverted. When the two yields carry different observation dates the sub-label reads "dates differ".
  • Macro regime: Kresmion's cross-asset regime label (see Macro overview).
• Which currencies moved. Each currency's 1D move against the US dollar, largest gain first. For a pair quoted as USD/XXX (USD/JPY, USD/CAD) the sign is flipped, so a falling USD/JPY shows as a rising yen. The USD row is the dollar index's own 1D move. The bar is centred on zero: to the right is a gain against the dollar, to the left a loss. Moves within plus or minus 0.05% read as neutral (grey).
• Major pairs. One row per pair from the 5-minute snapshot: Rate (precision fits the size: USD/JPY two decimals, EUR/USD five), 1D and 1W percentage change (grey inside 0.05% and 0.1%), a 24h range bar where the tick marks where the last rate sits between the 24-hour low (left) and high (right), and a 7d sparkline. A pair the snapshot carries without any 1D, 1W or 7-day data is left off the board and named in the panel header as "not quoted". A dimmed row means that pair was not reported in this snapshot; hover it for the reason.
• Week ahead. High-importance economic releases in the next 7 days, in UTC. Each line gives the day and time, the country chip and the event. Before release you see "F" (forecast) and "P" (previous); after release "A" (actual) and "F".
• Policy rates. The central banks behind the traded pairs, in a fixed order (US, euro area, UK, Japan, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, China, New Zealand). The Fed is shown as its 25 bp target range (for example 3.75-4.00) because the underlying series publishes the midpoint; every other bank shows its single rate. The bar compares levels across banks. A STALLED <n>d tag means the source has not published a new observation for that many days; the rate is still shown because a policy rate stays in force until changed, and past 60 days it is withheld instead. A STALE since <date> tag marks a hand-maintained rate whose scheduled decision date has passed without a check. When the panel is empty it says why (no answer, banks withheld as stale, or no row yet).
• Positioning, FX futures. CFTC non-commercial (large speculator) net position for EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, MXN and the US dollar index, from the weekly report named in the header. Net % OI is the net as a share of open interest (green above +1%, red below -1%, grey between). z 3y is the z-score of that net share of open interest against its trailing three years (156 weekly reports); it is bold at 2 or more in either direction. Flag reads "long extreme" or "short extreme" when Kresmion's COT detector flagged the position against its history.
• FX intelligence. A written summary of the last 24 hours of FX events and external reports, with the day it was generated and the counts it was based on. "Full text" opens the whole brief in a dialog. "Hide" collapses it and the choice is remembered in this browser; "Load the brief" brings it back.
• Sources line at the foot names every provider on the page.

• Refresh (title strip) reloads the rates, dollar index, calendar, policy rates, yields and regime at once. Rates also refresh by themselves every 2 minutes.
• Panels fit the screen; when a list has more rows than fit, a "+N more →" link appears at its foot.
• Hover any column header or value for its exact definition and date.

The pair rates here come from a market snapshot every 5 minutes; the /markets/forex pages use the ECB's once-a-day reference rate, so the two can differ by the intraday move. For a currency's policy-rate history open its central bank page.

Forex calendar

The economic calendar seen by currency: which scheduled releases (central bank decisions, CPI, payrolls, GDP) fall on which currency, when the next high-impact one is, and how busy each day is.

• Header. "FX event calendar", with the time the calendar was last read. The tabs under it (Overview, Countries, Calendar, Events) switch between the four Forex desk pages.
• Next high-impact release. The next high-importance event still ahead in the window: currency badge, country code, event name, forecast and previous values, a live countdown (days and hours, then minutes and seconds, then "live now"), and the release time in UTC. The note gives the currency and the USD pair it is quoted in (DXY for the dollar itself).
• Window and impact. The currency load tiles: up to 12 currencies, busiest first (high-impact events weigh three times a medium one). Each tile shows the currency, its USD pair, a stacked bar (dark = high, mid = medium, faint = low impact) and the event count with how many are high.
• Releases per day. Shown for the 7-day and 14-day windows: one bar per day, the busiest day in orange.
• Release timeline. Events grouped by day (today's heading in the accent colour), each day with its event and high-impact count. Each row: time in UTC, currency badge, event name (bold when high impact; "released" once past), then fcst, prev, act and the impact word. An arrow next to the actual marks it above (green ▲) or below (red ▼) the forecast. The next high-impact row is highlighted. The panel note gives the event count and says times are in UTC; days are UTC days.
• Currency is derived from the country code (the calendar carries no currency field): all euro-area member countries map to EUR.

• Window pills: Today, 7 days (default), 14 days.
• Impact pills: High only, High + med (default), All.
• Click a currency tile to show only that currency's releases; click it again, or the "<CCY> ✕" pill, to clear.
• Click a bar in Releases per day to scroll the timeline to that day.
• The page refreshes every 15 minutes. If a window hits the 500-row limit a note asks you to narrow the window or impact filter.
• Filters are not remembered between visits.

Times here are UTC, the same as the Week ahead panel on the Forex overview. For a single bank's meeting dates the bank's own calendar is the authority; its central bank page links it.

Currencies by issuer

Twenty currencies (ten G10, ten emerging) next to the sovereign that issues them: country risk premium, equity risk premium, policy rate and the currency's own weekly move against the dollar. It answers "which currency stands on the riskiest sovereign, and which pays the highest policy rate".

• Header. "Currencies by issuer", with how many of the 20 issuers were resolved. Tabs switch to the other Forex desk pages.
• Summary strip. Widest premium (the highest country risk premium and its currency), Highest policy rate (with its bank), Stalled rate sources (how many policy rates come from a source that has stopped publishing; served and flagged, withheld after 60 days), Issuers resolved (each currency is pinned to its sovereign by ISO country code).
• Sovereign risk behind the currency table:
  • CCY and Issuer (the country name, with its G10 or EM bloc). The euro is anchored to Germany, the area's benchmark issuer.
  • Country risk premium: Aswath Damodaran's country risk premium (NYU Stern) for the issuing sovereign, with a bar scaled to the widest premium on the page. "not reported" when missing.
  • ERP: Damodaran's equity risk premium for that country.
  • Policy: the central bank policy rate in force, with a STALLED tag when its source has stopped publishing (same rule as on the Forex overview).
  • 1w vs USD: the currency's own move against the dollar over one week from the FX snapshot, green when it gained. "base" on the USD row; "no cross" when the snapshot carries no USD pair for that currency.
  • The note above the table says how many rows are shown, the date of the Damodaran edition, and on how many currencies the weekly move is available.
  • There is no rating column. Credit ratings, where the rated government publishes them, are on each Country page with the agency and the date; today that covers only a few of these 20 issuers, too few for a column here.
• One currency, N sovereigns. The euro-area members ranked by country risk premium, showing the spread that the single euro row hides.
• A premium describes the sovereign, not the exchange rate.

• All / G10 / EM pills filter the table.
• Click any column header to sort (it opens sorted by country risk premium, lowest first).
• Hover the Policy value for the bank's name and a STALLED tag for what it means.

For the policy rate's full history and the next decision open the currency's central bank page; for risk premia across every country see Countries.

Forex events

The latest events Kresmion's detector raised on FX data. An event comes from a rule the detector evaluates on the FX data it holds, such as a large daily dollar-index move or a policy rate above the detector's level for that bank. Each row gives the value it saw and the threshold it crossed. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

• Header. "Forex events", how many of the latest events are loaded (up to 20), how long ago the newest arrived, and "detector runs every 15 minutes". Tabs switch to the other Forex desk pages.
• Severity strip. Counts of Critical, High, Medium and Low among the latest events. Severity is the detector's own ladder.
• What the detector flagged. Newest first, grouped by UTC day. Each item: time, severity badge, the symbol in bold, the headline, then the event type, "value <x>" (what the detector saw), "threshold <y>" (the level it crossed), "AI reviewed" when an AI pass checked it, and the source the detector read. Long descriptions are cut at 200 characters with "Show more".
• By type. How many of the latest events fall in each event type.
• What an event is. The plain definition above.

• Severity pills (All, Critical, High, Medium, Low, each with its count) filter the feed.
• Refresh reloads the feed; it also refreshes every 15 minutes.

Events across every asset class are on the main event feed (EVT). Positioning extremes in currency futures are read in detail on FX positioning.

FX monitor

How far every tracked currency pair moved over one day to one year, which G10 currency was strongest and weakest, and where the Federal Reserve's dollar indexes stand. Every pair is computed from the ECB euro reference rates of the same day, so all pairs share one fixing time. These are daily reference points (set around 14:10 CET, published around 16:00 CET on TARGET working days), not live quotes.

• Pair groups. Majors (the seven most traded dollar pairs), Crosses (no US dollar leg, such as GBP/JPY), Emerging and Asia (units of the local currency per US dollar). A pair without the euro is the ratio of its two euro rates of that day.
• Moves (signed in: "Pair moves"; public: "How far did each pair move?"). One row per pair: Last (ECB reference rate; "not tracked" if none), percentage change over 1D, 1W, 1M, 3M, YTD, 1Y, 1D z, 1Y vol and a 60 days sparkline. Each change cell is a tile: green when the first currency rose against the second (EUR/USD up means the euro bought more dollars), red when it fell, grey under the column's threshold (0.1% for 1D, 0.25% for 1W, 0.5% for 1M, 1% for 3M, 1.5% for YTD and 1Y). Each column has its own colour scale. A change whose look-back has no rate within a week of its date shows "--".
  • 1D z: the latest daily move divided by the pair's typical daily move over the past 252 days. A z of 2 means the day was about two typical days' worth of movement. Grey under 1.
  • 1Y vol: annualised realised volatility over the last 252 published days, in percent.
• Tiles view / Currency heatmap. The same moves as one coloured tile per pair, by group, for one horizon (1D, 1W, 1M or YTD). Hover a tile for its figures.
• Pair chart. The selected pair's ECB reference rate over 3M, 1Y, 5Y or Max (Max goes back to 4 January 1999). Above the chart: the last rate, the 1D change in price and percent, then 1W, 1M, YTD and 1Y changes, 1Y vol and the 1D z.
• G10 strength. Each G10 currency's average move against the other nine, equal weight, over 1D, 1W (default) or 1M, ranked. The ten scores describe the same moves from ten sides, so they net to about zero. If a G10 rate is missing at either end of the window the ranking says "Not enough history".
• KPI strip. Strongest G10 and Weakest G10 on the strength window, Biggest 1D move (largest absolute 1D change, with its z in the tooltip), Fed broad dollar index (the Federal Reserve's Broad index, level and 1W change; not the ICE DXY on the Forex overview), Pairs up / down on 1D (flat = within 0.1%).
• Fed dollar indexes. The Federal Reserve's published nominal Broad, AFE (advanced foreign economies) and EME (emerging market economies) indexes, January 2006 = 100, with a 3M, 6M or 1Y chart. A higher index means the dollar buys more foreign currency. Broad covers 26 currencies weighted by US trade. These are the Board's own levels, not a Kresmion calculation and not the ICE US Dollar Index. H.10 is a weekly release, so the latest level can be several days old; "(stale)" marks a payload that is behind.
• Public only. An answer box at the top states, in one paragraph, the strongest and weakest G10 currencies over a week and the Broad index level, with its date and sources. A "Cite this data" block at the foot gives a citation.
• Sources and licence notices. The ECB and Federal Reserve attribution lines. On the public page they are the footer; signed in, they sit in a block just below the one-screen grid.

• Signed-in layout: the moves panel has Table / Tiles tabs. In Table, the group tabs are All, Majors, Crosses, Emerging; in Tiles, the horizon tabs are 1D, 1W, 1M, YTD. The pair chart has a pair picker (grouped by Majors, Crosses, Emerging and Asia) and range tabs. Method (title strip) opens the full method in a dialog.
• Public layout: pair strip with a "Choose a currency pair" selector, heatmap with 1D/1W/1M/YTD pills, group pills (All, Majors, Crosses, Emerging) and a "Filter pair or currency" search over the moves table. The method sits in the header disclosure.
• Click a row or tile to load that pair in the chart.
• Click a currency in G10 strength to filter the moves table to the pairs with that currency on a leg; click it again, or the "<CCY> pairs ✕" chip, to clear.
• Click Broad, AFE or EME to show or hide that line on the dollar chart.
• Your choices are kept in the URL (?pair=, ?sw= strength window, ?ccy= currency filter, ?g= group, ?h= heatmap horizon on the public page), so a copied link opens the same view.

The Forex desk's overview links here as "FX monitor". For the realised volatility of every pair against its own year, see FX volatility.

FX positioning

Where large speculators sit in ten currency futures (euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso, Brazilian real, and the US dollar index), each measured against its own trailing three years. Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy, futures only), public domain.

• Header. "FX positioning", the number of contracts, the report date, and "(stale: older than one weekly cycle)" when the newest report is behind. The report describes positions on the Tuesday and is released the Friday after.
• KPI strip (signed in). Net long (how many contracts speculators are net long), Stretched, |z| >= 2, At a 3y range edge (net in the top or bottom 5% of its three years), US dollar index futures (speculator net; positive = net long the dollar), CFTC report date.
• Where speculators sit in each currency. One row per contract:
  • Net: non-commercial long minus short contracts. Positive = net long the named currency against the US dollar (the CME contracts are quoted in dollars per unit of foreign currency); for the dollar index, net long the dollar.
  • % OI: that net as a share of open interest, which makes contracts of different size comparable.
  • Wk chg and Wk % OI: change since the previous weekly report, in contracts and in points of open interest.
  • 3y pctl: where this week's net sits among the trailing 156 weekly reports (0 = the most short, 100 = the most long), shown once 26 weeks are stored. Tinted toward green at the long end and red at the short end, grey from 40 to 60.
  • 3y z: the share of open interest against its own 156-week mean and standard deviation (this week excluded). Grey within 0.5, ringed at 2 or more.
  • Positioning: fixed words. "Stretched long" (net long and more long than in its 3-year range), "Stretched short", "Shorts unwinding" (still net short but far less short than its norm), "Longs unwinding", "top 5%" or "bottom 5%" of the range, "inside" its norm, or "no baseline" before 8 weeks of history. The chart header adds how long a flag has held ("3 weeks running", "last <date>", "first in stored history"). These describe where positioning sits and make no call on price.
  • Net, 52w: sparkline of the net over the last year.
• Positioning map / 12 weeks. The map is one tile per contract tinted by the current sort metric. "12 weeks" shows the last twelve weekly reports as 3-year percentile tiles, so you can see a position building or unwinding.
• History chart. The selected contract's net position over 6M, 1Y or 3Y, with the 3-year 5th to 95th percentile shaded, the 3-year median and zero ("flat") as reference lines. The header gives the contract, its open interest and the report date.
• Public layout adds jump links (Positioning, 12-week history, Weekly shifts, Method), a "Biggest shifts this week" panel (change in net as points of open interest), a contract strip for the selected row, an answer box and a citation block.
• Quarterly contract expiries can move open interest sharply in one week; the z is still shown then.

• Signed in: sort tabs Contract, Week chg (by absolute size), Pctl, z; the map tints by the same choice. Public: click a column header to sort, and pick the map metric (3y percentile, 3y z, Week change).
• Click a row or tile, or use the contract picker on the chart, to chart that contract. Hover a tile or chart point for exact values.
• Method (signed in, title strip) opens the full method.
• The metric choice is kept in the URL (?m=).

Commodity, rates and equity-index futures positioning is on COT positioning. The Forex overview shows a short version of this table with the same three-year z-scores.

Central banks by currency

Every currency's policy rate on one page (32 central banks): the level now, the last move, whether the bank has been hiking, cutting or on hold over 12 months, the next scheduled decision, and what Polymarket prices for that decision.

• Header. The number of currencies and the date the rates are as of. BIS publishes policy rates a few days late, so a decision this week may not show yet; the page states the lag.
• KPI strip (signed in). Currencies with a rate, Hiking (12-month net above zero), Cutting (below zero), On hold (no net change, including "reversed" banks that moved and came back), Next decision (the soonest scheduled decision; click to open that bank), Decision markets (banks with an open Polymarket market on their next single decision).
• Policy rates now. A bar per currency, highest first, coloured by the 12-month cycle: green hiking, red cutting, grey on hold, a separate colour for "Moved and reversed", faint for "Not enough history".
• All central banks table: Ccy, Central bank, Rate (USD shows the midpoint of the Fed's target range, with the range in the tooltip), Last (size of the last move in bp), Moved on (dated to the day where the daily series reaches it, else to the month), 12m net (change between the month-end level 12 months ago and now, in bp; tinted by size and sign, zero grey), 12 months sparkline of month-end levels, Cycle, Next decision date, Polymarket (the highest price among the outcomes of the soonest open single-decision market, or "rate markets" when only other markets exist, or "none").
• Hiking, cutting and on hold are read off the 12-month net change, never off the direction of the last move.
• Next decision source. Where Kresmion holds the bank's own calendar (the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendar) that date is used. For other banks the date comes from the shared macro calendar and is marked * (a convenience only; the bank's own calendar is the authority). The * look-up needs you to be signed in.
• Polymarket prices are crowd prices, not a forecast.

• Signed in: sort tabs Rate (default), 12m net, Last move, A-Z; the table pages when it does not fit. USD and EUR are pinned first. Method opens the method.
• Public: a "Filter currency, bank or cycle" search and sortable column headers; on a phone the table becomes a list.
• Hover a bar for rate, last move, 12m net and cycle.

The same policy rates feed Carry and the macro Central banks page, so the numbers agree across them.

Central bank page

One central bank in depth: the policy rate now, its history back to the start of the series, every recent move, the next scheduled decision and what the decision market prices for it, plus links to the bank's own calendar and press releases. Pages exist for 32 currencies: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD, SEK, NOK, DKK, CNY, INR, KRW, HKD, IDR, MYR, THB, PHP, MXN, BRL, CLP, COP, PEN, ZAR, TRY, ILS, PLN, CZK, HUF, RON, ISK. Any other code returns "not found"; an upper-case code redirects to the lower-case page.

• KPI strip (signed in) / identity strip (public). Policy rate (the level, with its source and observation date; USD is the midpoint of the target range), Last move (size, hike or cut, and date), 12-month cycle (the cycle word, with hikes and cuts inside the window in the tooltip), Next decision (from the bank's calendar, or from the shared macro calendar marked as such), Top outcome (the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket for the next decision).
• Policy rate history. A step line of month-end levels over 5Y, 10Y or Max; the header gives the first and last month shown.
• Decision odds / Next decision on Polymarket. Each outcome of the soonest open market on a single decision by this bank: outcome, price bar, Price (last traded or quoted YES price, in percent) and Volume (USD). The header names the event, its closing date and total traded. Prices are crowd prices, not a forecast.
• Recent rate changes. Date, change in bp, level before (From) and after (To). Changes are dated to the day inside the stored daily window, else to the month.
• Other markets. The bank's other open Polymarket rate markets (counts of cuts, year-end levels), by volume.
• Official sources. Meeting calendar, press releases and statistics on the bank's own site, the source of the current level where it is not BIS, the BIS policy rate series, and a link back to all banks.
• Method. How the level, moves, cycle and next date are read.
• Public layout adds an answer sentence, an "Other currencies" row of links to all 32 bank pages, and a citation block.

• Range tabs 5Y, 10Y, Max (kept in the URL as ?range=).
• Click a row in Recent rate changes to place the chart's marker on that month.
• Signed in: the currency picker in the title strip jumps to another bank, and the Forex section links (Monitor, Positioning, Central banks, Carry, Seasonality, Volatility) sit in the title strip.

For the Fed, the Fed hub adds the FOMC calendar, decision odds and the balance sheet.

Rate differentials and carry

How far each currency's policy rate sits above or below the US dollar's (or the euro's), how that gap changed, and how large it is relative to the currency's recent volatility. It also shows whether, over the past year, wider differentials came with currency gains.

• Differential (Diff pp). The currency's policy rate minus the Federal Reserve's (or the ECB's) policy rate, in percentage points. Policy rates are annual, so the gap is already annualised. It is a gap between two overnight policy rates, not a deposit or forward rate.
• Δ3M bp / Δ12M bp. Change in the differential, in basis points, between the month-end policy levels 3 and 12 months before the latest month and now.
• Spot 3M % / Spot 1Y %. The currency's change in value against the base, from the ECB reference rates. Positive = the currency gained.
• 3M vol %. Annualised standard deviation of the last 63 daily changes (at least 40 needed).
• Carry/vol. Differential divided by 3M vol: how many units of recent volatility the rate gap is. Currencies held to an anchor by policy (HKD, DKK) carry a peg tag: their volatility is tiny, so a small gap gives a large ratio.
• Tiles. Green = policy rate above the base's, the gap widened, or the currency gained; red = the opposite. Each column has its own scale and grey band.
• "not tracked" marks a currency without a current policy rate or without an ECB reference rate, never a zero.
• KPI strip (signed in) / panels (public). The base's policy rate (with its bank), Widest differential, Top carry / vol (among currencies without a peg), Above / below base counts, Median 3M vol, and the US Treasury 2Y and Euro area 2Y yields with their 3-month change. Only these two official 2-year series are held, so a 2-year differential for every currency is not tracked; the two are shown side by side, not subtracted.
• Carry per unit of volatility. Bars, highest first; faded bars are pegs. An outlier is clipped at the chart edge with its value printed.
• Did wider differentials come with currency gains? A scatter of differential (horizontal) against the 1-year spot move (vertical); hollow dots are pegs. It describes the past year, not a relation that holds.
• Carry board / Differentials, moves and volatility. The full table, one row per currency, with G10 and Emerging swatches.

• vs US dollar / vs euro switch (kept in the URL as ?vs=).
• Signed in: sort tabs Carry/vol (default), Diff, 1Y, A-Z; the table pages. Hover or click a bar or dot to select that currency; the selection line above the table shows its figures with a link to its central bank and a Clear button. Method opens the method.
• Public: sortable table headers; hover a bar or dot for its values, click to select.

This page measures what the rate gap and the currency did; it is not a return forecast. Policy rates here are the same as on Central banks by currency.

FX seasonality

How each currency pair has moved, on average, in each calendar month since 1999, and whether that average can be told apart from noise. Calendar averages describe the past; they are not forecasts.

• Monthly return. The last published ECB reference rate of a month against the last rate of the previous month. Only consecutive completed months count. The month in progress is shown on its own as "so far" and never enters an average. History starts on 4 January 1999; a currency the ECB began publishing later starts later.
• Per calendar month: the mean and median across years, how many years rose, and t = mean divided by its standard error. An average with |t| under 2 is within noise: it cannot be told apart from zero with that many years. An average needs at least 3 years.
• KPI strip (signed in). For the selected pair and the current calendar month: average (since the first year), Rose in <month> (years up of years with a return), <month> so far (month-to-date, "not in any average"), Highest month and Lowest month by average, Pairs higher in <month> (how many pairs average above zero, and how many of those are clear of noise).
• <Pair> by calendar month. A bar per month (the average), a median tick and a dot per year.
• Best <month>s. Every pair's average in the pinned month, highest first, with years rose and t; bold = 2 or more standard errors.
• Every pair by month. Heat tiles of the average return per pair and month: green up, red down, grey under the deadband, the current month framed, a ring on an average 2 or more standard errors from zero. The header reports how many tiles clear that bar against how many would by chance alone (about one in twenty).
• <Pair> by year. Years view: each completed month's return, newest year first. Stats view: per month the average, median, years up and t.
• Public layout uses question titles ("How has <pair> moved in each calendar month?", "Which pairs have risen in <month>?", "Every pair by calendar month"), plus an answer box and citation block.
• The major currency pairs on your own dashboard (public layout). An account box under the month chart, across the full width (between the chart and the ranking on a phone): a free account adds My dashboard, which, with FX picked, opens on the dollar index and the major pairs and the speculators' net position in currency futures from the weekly CFTC report. Create a free account and Sign in.

• Choose the pair with the pair picker; signed in, the page stays on one URL with ?pair= updated.
• Click a month bar to pin it (the ranking follows); the arrow keys move the pinned month.
• Group tabs on the grid: All, Majors, Crosses, Emerging.
• Click a year row in the year grid to highlight that year's dots in the chart.
• This page scrolls: the year-by-year grid sits below the first screen.

With hundreds of pair-month averages, a single ringed tile is weak evidence; the header's "by chance" count is there for that reason.

FX volatility and correlation

Whether each pair's realised volatility is high or low against its own past year, and which currencies move together against the dollar, against the Fed's Broad dollar index and against US yields. Realised from daily fixings, not option-implied.

• Realised volatility. Standard deviation of daily changes over the last 21 (1M), 63 (3M) and 252 (1Y) published days, annualised, in percent, from the ECB reference rates.
• Pctl. Where today's 1M reading ranks among the pair's daily 1M readings over the past year (needs 180). "Top decile" means the last month was among the most volatile of the year for that pair; it says nothing about the months ahead.
• 1M/3M. 1M vol divided by 3M vol: "1M above 3M" at 1.1 or more, "1M below 3M" at 0.9 or less, else "flat".
• KPI strip (signed in). For the selected pair: 1M, 3M and 1Y vol, 1M in its year (percentile), 1M / 3M, Past-year 1M range (lowest to highest).
• Vol vs own year (public: "Is each pair's volatility high or low against its own past year?"). Every pair: a range bar from its lowest to highest 1M reading of the year with today's reading marked, 1M, 3M, 1Y, Pctl, 1M/3M and a sparkline of 1M vol over the year.
• Realised vol chart. The pair's rolling 1M (solid) and 3M (dotted) vol over 1Y, 2Y or 5Y, with the high and low of the range in the header.
• Which currencies move together? A correlation matrix of 15 currencies, each measured in US dollars, over 1M, 3M or 1Y of common days. Green = the two moved the same way on the same days, red = opposite ways, grey within 0.2. Pairings lists the tightest and loosest pairs. $ and yields shows each currency's correlation with the Broad dollar index and the US 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields; these columns use the Fed's noon New York rates, the same clock as the Broad index, and a few hours separate them from end-of-day yields. Gold, crude oil and equity indexes are marked as not tracked here.
• Rolling correlation. A currency against the dollar index, or the pairing you picked, as a rolling 3-month correlation over two years (needs 45 common days).

• Signed in: sort tabs Group, 1M, Pctl; the pair picker on the chart; range tabs 1Y, 2Y, 5Y; matrix view tabs Matrix, Pairings, $ and yields (the matrix is hidden on a phone); window tabs 1M, 3M, 1Y; rolling tabs vs $ index (with a currency picker) and Pairing.
• Click a pair row to chart it. Click a matrix tile or a pairing to chart that pairing's rolling correlation.
• Your pair, window and currency are kept in the URL.

For futures volatility see the futures pages; for option-implied volatility use Cmd-K VOL.

Daily briefs and research notes

Kresmion publishes two kinds of written pieces, and they live in separate places:

• Daily Brief: an automated daily market summary written by software from Kresmion's own data (events, the macro regime, positioning, on-chain flows) and published after automated checks. Signed in, read it at /briefs; the public archive is /daily-brief. Today's brief also has its own focused signed-in page, Daily brief (/macro/brief, Cmd-K BRIEF).
• Research Notes: longer, source-cited analysis from Kresmion Research. Signed in at /research-notes; the public archive is /notes.

Both are information only and make no buy or sell recommendations. Signed out, /briefs and /research-notes show a sign-in panel with a link to the public archive.

Daily Brief archive (signed in)

Every published Daily Brief in one list inside the terminal, so you can find a past day's summary without leaving the app.

• Header. "Daily Brief", with how many automated daily summaries are on file and the date of the oldest.
• Month panels. One panel per month, newest first, titled "<Month Year> · N briefs". Each row shows the day (short date) and the brief's headline. Up to the 120 most recent briefs are listed.
• Footer. A reminder that the briefs are written by software from Kresmion data and published after automated checks, with links to Research Notes and the public archive.

Scroll the months; click a row to read that day's brief.

Headlines name the day's main event, so scanning a month panel is a quick way to see how the regime and the lead story evolved.

A day's Daily Brief (signed in)

Reading one day's automated brief inside the terminal.

• Header. The brief's headline, the long date and "automated daily summary". When a Research Note was published the same day, a "Research note for this date" link appears here.
• Body. The brief itself. It is usually organised as Overview (the regime label and the day's main facts), Macro Regime (the four factor scores behind the label: growth, risk appetite, liquidity, volatility), Key Risks (notable filings and stresses), Market Context (yields, the curve slope, breakeven inflation, mortgage rates, financial conditions, the Fed balance sheet, the dollar index, crypto prices) and Watch (the next scheduled release that bears on the day's read). The exact sections follow the day's data.
• Sources cited. The data families the brief drew on (for example SEC EDGAR filings, the macro economic calendar, BIS indicators, FRED series, the macro regime model).
• Footer. "Kresmion publishes information, not investment advice", with a link to the public copy of the same brief.

Read top to bottom; use the links in the body where present.

If a date holds only a Research Note and no brief, /briefs/<date> opens the note reader instead; a date with neither shows "not found".

Daily Brief (public)

The public, shareable archive of the automated Daily Brief: one entry per day, readable without an account.

• Intro. What the brief is: an automated daily market summary generated from Kresmion's own data (the events that fired, the macro and positioning backdrop, notable on-chain flows), written by software and published after automated checks, information only.
• List. The 60 most recent briefs, newest first, each with its long date and headline. Before the first brief is published the page says "The next daily brief will appear here once it is published."
• Localised hubs. Same list with the intro and dates in that language and a note that daily briefs are published in English. A row opens the translated page when a translation exists, otherwise the English brief.
• An RSS feed of the briefs is available at /daily-brief/feed.xml.

Click a row to read it. The breadcrumb (Home › Daily Brief) returns to the home page.

Signed in, the same briefs are listed inside the terminal at Daily Brief archive.

A day's Daily Brief (public)

One day's automated brief as a public page you can read and share.

• Header. "Daily Brief · <date>", the headline and a one-line reminder that it is automated, generated from Kresmion's data, published after automated checks and information only.
• Share buttons. X, LinkedIn, Reddit and Copy link.
• Research note link. When a Research Note was published the same day: "Research note for this date: <title> →".
• Body. The same text as the signed-in reader (see A day's Daily Brief, signed in for the usual sections).
• Sources. The data families the brief cited.
• Sign-up card. "Get the smart money brief": enter an email to receive the brief when the data has something in it (no fixed schedule, unsubscribe any time), or join the Telegram channel for live alerts.
• Footer. Links to Research Notes and the methodology.
• Translated pages show the date in the local format, the brief's themes and tickers as pills, the machine-translated body, a note that the English original is authoritative, and a "Read the English original" link.

Share with the buttons, subscribe with the card, or follow the links.

An old /daily-brief/<date> link for a day that only ever held a Research Note forwards permanently to /notes/<date>, so older shared links keep working.

Research Notes (signed in)

The front page of Kresmion Research's long-form notes (macro regime, positioning, filings, on-chain flows), laid out like a news front page, with theme filters and search.

• Header. "Research Notes", the number of notes and the date of the first one.
• Theme filter. "All" plus the twelve most covered themes, each with a coloured square and its note count.
• Lead story. The newest note, large: themes (as coloured squares), headline, deck (subtitle), the opening lines, then date, reading time and up to six tickers. A strip of colour squares under it shows all its themes. Each story has a top rule in its lead theme's colour; colours are categorical (one per theme), not a rating.
• Recent notes. The next three notes in a column beside the lead.
• Month sections. Every earlier note as a story card, grouped by month ("September 2026 · 4 notes").
• Footer. Notes cite their sources; information only. Links to the public archive and to the Daily Brief.

• Theme filter. Click a theme to show only notes carrying it (the URL becomes ?theme=<theme>); click "All" to clear. A theme with no notes shows "Show every note".
• Search. The box above the filters searches headline, deck, opening lines, themes, tickers and the date; every word you type must match ("nvda gamma", "rates", "september", "2026-09"). Press / to jump to the box (on a keyboard). Results replace the front page with a grid of matches inside the current theme; the query is kept in the URL (?q=) so a search can be shared. "Clear search" or the × button restores the front page.

Search a ticker to find every note that discussed it; combine a theme filter with a month name to narrow further.

A research note (signed in)

Reading one Research Note inside the terminal.

• Theme rule and kicker. A top rule in the lead theme's colour, then each theme with its colour square.
• Headline and deck. The title is split into a headline and a deck (subtitle) when it has two parts.
• Meta line. The long date, the reading time ("N min read", at about 200 words a minute) and the tickers the note covers as chips.
• Body. The note, with its own sections, tables and charts as written.
• Sources cited. The sources the note drew on.
• Footer. Information, not advice; links to the methodology and to the public copy of the note.

Read top to bottom; follow links in the body.

If a date holds only a Daily Brief, /research-notes/<date> opens the brief reader instead.

Where to find it

• Find today's risk-on / risk-off regime and the factor driving it → Macro overview
• Find the Fed decision odds for the next FOMC meetings → Macro overview
• Find what CPI or payrolls printed against the forecast, and how markets moved after → Macro calendar
• Find which assets move together or opposite over 30, 60 or 90 days → Correlation matrix
• Find a country's risk premium compared with its region → Country risk
• See what happened in a country in the last 30 days, official and reported → Country page, Events.
• Follow a country's official records in a digest → Country page, ☆ Watch (then My list).
• Find a country's sovereign credit ratings and 10-year spread over the Bund → Country page
• Find net Fed liquidity, reverse repo and bank reserves → Liquidity
• Find open prediction markets on rates, inflation or growth → Macro prediction markets
• Find the latest detector events on yields, volatility or global indices → Macro events
• Find who exports a product (for example semiconductors) to which country → Global trade map
• Find the policy rate of any central bank and when it last moved → Central bank policy rates
• Find where SOFR and fed funds sit inside the Fed's target range → Money markets
• Find the next FOMC decision date and how markets price it → Fed hub
• Find the policy rate path implied by fed funds futures → Fed hub
• Find Italy's or France's 10-year spread over the Bund → Sovereign spreads
• Find whether US data is beating or missing consensus → Economic surprise index
• Find today's risk-on or risk-off regime without an account → Macro regime (public)
• Find a country's GDP growth, inflation or government debt → Economic statistics
• Compare one statistic across several economies → One series
• Find where futures speculators are most stretched against their own history → COT positioning (sort by |z|)
• Find which futures markets last hit a positioning extreme → Capital flows overview
• Find which funds hold a stock on their 13F → Institutional holdings (13F) (type the ticker)
• Find one fund's largest 13F positions and quarter-on-quarter changes → Institutional holdings (13F)
• Find which country holds the most US Treasuries, and who sold last month → Foreign holders of US Treasuries (TIC)
• Find central bank policy rates that just changed, across countries → BIS statistics
• Find countries with a high credit-to-GDP gap or debt service ratio → BIS statistics
• Find a past day's automated Daily Brief → Daily Brief archive (signed in) or Daily Brief (public)
• Find every research note that mentioned a ticker or theme → Research Notes (search or theme filter)
• Find today's biggest currency moves against the dollar → Forex overview
• Find the next high-impact release for a currency, with a countdown → Forex calendar
• Find a currency's issuing sovereign risk premium and policy rate → Currencies by issuer
• Find FX events the detector raised today → Forex events
• Find every pair's 1D to 1Y move at the ECB reference rate → FX monitor
• Find where speculators sit in euro or yen futures against three years → FX positioning
• Find which central banks are hiking or cutting over 12 months → Central banks by currency
• Find a central bank's rate history and next decision odds → Central bank page
• Find each currency's policy-rate gap to the dollar or the euro and carry per unit of volatility → Rate differentials and carry
• Find how a pair has moved in each calendar month since 1999 → FX seasonality
• Find whether a pair's volatility is high against its own year, and which currencies move together → FX volatility and correlation