Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Part of: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 15% as of Oct 15, 2026, 09:17 UTC, down from 18% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 12 percent (Sep 13, 2026) and 21 percent (Jul 16, 2026), across 2,885 recorded prices. The current price of 15 percent is 2.4 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (18 percent), and 2.7 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (13 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 19% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 18% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 17% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 15% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 15% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 14% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 13% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 16% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 16% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 17% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 15% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 15% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 15 percent, with the NO outcome at 85 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 559652
Kresmion, "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 559652.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568">Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 09:17 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.