Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Part of: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.