Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Part of: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" at 5 percent YES, on $4.9M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 5 percent (Aug 12, 2026) and 6 percent (Aug 4, 2026), across 1,250 recorded prices. The current price of 5 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (5 percent), and 0.9 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (6 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 6% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 6% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 5% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 5 percent, with the NO outcome at 95 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 06:29 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.