Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 24, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 19 percent YES, down 3.0 points in the last 24 hours, on $5.6M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 19 percent (Aug 24, 2026) and 60 percent (Aug 8, 2026), across 1,016 recorded prices. The current price of 19 percent is 37.0 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (56 percent), and 31.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (50 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 49% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 46% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 56% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 57% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 57% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 22% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 19% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 18 percent and the best ask is 20 percent, a spread of 2.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-24 17:04 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 19 percent, with the NO outcome at 81 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-24 16:56 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.