Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 5% as of Oct 15, 2026, 09:45 UTC, up from 3% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Oct 8, 2026) and 30 percent (Jul 14, 2026), across 4,239 recorded prices. The current price of 5 percent is 2.6 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (3 percent), and 3.4 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (9 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 25% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 22% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 25% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 9% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 8% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 9% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 9% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 6% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 4% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 4% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 4% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 5% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 5 percent and the best ask is 5 percent, a spread of 0.5 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.051 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $0 at the best bid and $81 at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-15 09:46 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 5 percent, with the NO outcome at 95 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
More crypto markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 701502
Kresmion, "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-bitcoin-dip-to-45000-by-december-31-2026-674-923-755-971-998-525-926-245-316-517-544-589-965-923-986-841-815-224-586-231-289-533-573. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 701502.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-bitcoin-dip-to-45000-by-december-31-2026-674-923-755-971-998-525-926-245-316-517-544-589-965-923-986-841-815-224-586-231-289-533-573">Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 09:45 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.