Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Part of: Fed Decision in September?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" at 45 percent YES, up 14.0 points in the last 24 hours, on $12.9M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 25, 2026, this market has traded between 16 percent (May 25, 2026) and 60 percent (Jul 31, 2026), across 7,704 recorded prices. The current price of 45 percent is 14.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (31 percent), and 9.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (54 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | 16% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 37% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 50% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 57% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 36% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 25% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 32% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 45% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 45 percent and the best ask is 46 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-29 05:26 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 45 percent, with the NO outcome at 55 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:37 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.