Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jul 17, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Jul 20, 2026) and 5 percent (Aug 14, 2026), across 892 recorded prices. The current price of 4 percent is 0.9 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (3 percent), and 0.3 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (3 percent).

Weekly closes

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 4 percent, with the NO outcome at 96 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

More macro markets

Live markets in the same category, priced by the same venue.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.