Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jul 15, 2026, this market has traded between 6 percent (Jul 31, 2026) and 14 percent (Jul 15, 2026), across 861 recorded prices. The current price of 10 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (10 percent), and 1.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (11 percent).

Weekly closes

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 10 percent, with the NO outcome at 90 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.