PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Part of: United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?" resolved No; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 21, 2026.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 1125102. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 16, 2026 to Sep 21, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Sep 16, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 20, 2026) to 7% (Sep 18, 2026), across 180 recorded prices.
How this market resolved
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled politics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1125102
Kresmion, "Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-21, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-united-russia-win-between-295-and-309-seats-in-the-next-russian-state-duma-election. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1125102.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.