2026-07-17

Prediction market repriced: "Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 17?" moved +75pp in 24h to 96%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?" moved -80pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-07-17?" moved -28pp in 24h to 20%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-07-17?" moved +42pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CS Cristal win on 2026-07-17?" moved +20pp in 24h to 88%

Algo flow pattern on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($36,109 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement

Algo flow pattern on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": 11 fills from 10 wallets absorbed at 25.0% ($31,925), consistent with hidden resting size at the level

Prediction market repriced: "Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?" moved +25pp in 24h to 65%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-07-17?" moved +42pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Henan FC win on 2026-07-17?" moved +28pp in 24h to 97%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-07-18?" moved -27pp in 24h to 26%

Algo flow pattern on "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 202": 8-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($13,661 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement

Prediction market repriced: "Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?" moved +20pp in 24h to 58%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-07-16?" moved +49pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-07-16?" moved -40pp in 24h to 8%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-07-16?" moved -30pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Atlante FC win on 2026-07-16?" moved +42pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-07-16?" moved -44pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5" moved +28pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Will EC Bahia win on 2026-07-17?" moved +19pp in 24h to 86%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?" moved -15pp in 24h to 55%

VIX at 18.8: CAUTION territory

Prediction market repriced: "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?" moved -18pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?" moved -20pp in 24h to 38%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?" moved -15pp in 24h to 24%

VIX at 19.4: CAUTION territory

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" moved -19pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-07-16?" moved -16pp in 24h to 24%

VIX at 18.0: CAUTION territory

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 26%

Prediction market repriced: "Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?" moved -16pp in 24h to 50%

Financial conditions loosening: NFCI at -0.54, liquidity supportive

Australian Wheat Belt: crop water stress detected (3.1σ above baseline) - potential ZW=F supply pressure

OSINT: US Senators Release Draft Bill Targeting Buyers of Russian Oil

OSINT: Iran Orders Power Cuts After US Energy Strikes; IRGC Claims Hit on Qatar Base

OSINT: IRGC Allegedly Attacks US Special Ops Base at al‑Tanf, Syria

OSINT: Russia to import gasoline from India as 40% of refineries offline

OIL RSI 77.7 - overbought (crossed above 70)

Oil +3.36%: significant gain on the session

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?" moved +15pp in 24h to 35%

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?" moved +15pp in 24h to 64%

OIL RSI 77.3 - overbought (crossed above 70)

Oil +1.62%: significant gain on the session

OIL RSI 75.8 - overbought (crossed above 70)

Oil -1.20%: significant decline on the session

OIL RSI 74.7 - overbought (crossed above 70)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?" moved +19pp in 24h to 60%

Gold -1.27%: significant decline on the session

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 18?" moved +40pp in 24h to 90%

BTC ETF inflow of $711M - institutional buying

ETH ETF inflow of $171M - institutional buying

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 9AM ET" moved +24pp in 24h to 75%

TNSR open interest -69.4% - OI collapse

ENA open interest -89.8% - OI collapse

JTO open interest -55.9% - OI collapse

STRK open interest -80.3% - OI collapse

ME open interest -71.4% - OI collapse

KMNO open interest -43.1% - OI collapse

PYTH open interest -53.0% - OI collapse

W open interest -78.6% - OI collapse

DRIFT open interest -22.2% - OI collapse

JUP open interest +135.8% - OI surge

SEI open interest -79.4% - OI collapse

IO open interest -61.0% - OI collapse

EIGEN open interest -69.9% - OI collapse

Algo flow pattern on "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?": 7-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($58,711 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement

ADA open interest +241.4% - OI surge

UNI open interest -44.6% - OI collapse

OP open interest -58.5% - OI collapse

DOGE open interest -26.4% - OI collapse

LINK open interest +141.4% - OI surge

DOT open interest -41.0% - OI collapse

BCH open interest -72.0% - OI collapse

ATOM open interest -74.7% - OI collapse

ARB open interest +225.3% - OI surge

APT open interest -76.2% - OI collapse

XRP open interest +42.2% - OI surge

AVAX open interest +53.4% - OI surge

INJ open interest -30.7% - OI collapse

TIA open interest +463.2% - OI surge

SUI open interest +58.0% - OI surge

LTC open interest -35.8% - OI collapse

NEAR open interest +206.5% - OI surge

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?" moved -21pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 17?" moved -21pp in 24h to 78%

SOL open interest -51.8% - OI collapse

BTC open interest -44.6% - OI collapse

ETH open interest +29.5% - OI surge

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17?" moved -42pp in 24h to 8%

W open interest +129.1% - OI surge

DRIFT open interest +33.8% - OI surge

KMNO open interest +242.4% - OI surge

SEI open interest -79.2% - OI collapse

TNSR open interest -69.2% - OI collapse

IO open interest -50.2% - OI collapse

ME open interest -70.8% - OI collapse

ENA open interest -90.0% - OI collapse

EIGEN open interest -70.0% - OI collapse

JTO open interest +91.4% - OI surge

JUP open interest +134.4% - OI surge

PYTH open interest -67.8% - OI collapse

STRK open interest +130.1% - OI surge

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?" moved -37pp in 24h to 32%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?" moved -24pp in 24h to 18%

APT open interest -72.7% - OI collapse

BCH open interest +927.3% - OI surge

ATOM open interest -86.5% - OI collapse

SUI open interest -55.7% - OI collapse

INJ open interest +68.0% - OI surge

XRP open interest -82.1% - OI collapse

LINK open interest +71.7% - OI surge

NEAR open interest -64.9% - OI collapse

LTC open interest +300.9% - OI surge

ADA open interest -70.5% - OI collapse

OP open interest +27.9% - OI surge

UNI open interest +88.7% - OI surge

DOGE open interest +85.1% - OI surge

AVAX open interest -80.7% - OI collapse

ARB open interest -74.7% - OI collapse

TIA open interest +56.9% - OI surge

DOT open interest +530.0% - OI surge

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on July 18?" moved +16pp in 24h to 66%

SOL RSI 25.7 - oversold (crossed below 30)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?" moved +15pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?" moved -19pp in 24h to 24%

SOL RSI 24.3 - oversold (crossed below 30)

NEAR funding -0.0203% · 1th percentile of its 180d Binance history

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?" moved +17pp in 24h to 88%

SOL RSI 24.7 - oversold (crossed below 30)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?" moved -15pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?" moved +20pp in 24h to 48%

Phase 3 trial terminated early - ELI Switching to Duloxetine to Ameliorate SSRI-Induced Sexual Dysfunction

Phase 3 trial terminated early - PFIZER A 10-week Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of PD 0332334 in Patients Wit

Phase 3 trial terminated early - PFIZER Growth Hormone in Children With Juvenile Rheumatoid Arthritis (JRA) and With Cro

Phase 3 trial terminated early - PFIZER A 10-week Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of PD 0332334 for the Treatme

Phase 3 trial terminated early - PFIZER Study to Test the Combination of Voriconazole and Anidulafungin in Patients Who

Phase 3 trial terminated early - PFIZER Safety of Celecoxib in Patients With Crohn's Disease

Phase 3 trial terminated early - PFIZER Safety Study to Assess Opiate Withdrawal Signs and Symptoms in Opioid Dependent

Phase 3 trial terminated early - Merck MK0767 Added to Insulin Therapy in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes (0767-030)

Phase 3 trial terminated early - Merck Efficacy of Infliximab in the Treatment of Patients Affected by Corticodependent

Phase 3 trial terminated early - Merck Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin With or Without Bintrafusp Alfa (M7824) in Participan

Phase 3 trial terminated early - Merck A Study of ProQuad™ in Healthy Children in Korea (V221-023)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?" moved +23pp in 24h to 37%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?" moved -26pp in 24h to 38%

ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 65.7% - EPS $0.84 vs $2.4488 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.6% - EPS $1.02 vs $0.966 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 15.8% - EPS $0.66 vs $0.7834 estimate

Q2-2025: Beat consensus by 21.5% - EPS $1.06 vs $0.8723 estimate

Q3-2025: Missed consensus by 12.8% - EPS $0.87 vs $0.9979 estimate

Q4-2025: Missed consensus by 12.1% - EPS $0.862 vs $0.9804 estimate

Q4-2025: Missed consensus by 25553.6% - EPS $-117.75 vs $-0.459 estimate

Q3-2025: Beat consensus by 26.5% - EPS $-1.35 vs $-1.836 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 179.8% - EPS $0.48 vs $-0.6018 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 23.0% - EPS $-0.71 vs $-0.5771 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 50.3% - EPS $-0.65 vs $-0.4325 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 75.5% - EPS $-0.02 vs $-0.0816 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 67.3% - EPS $-0.03 vs $-0.0918 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 17.8% - EPS $0.87 vs $1.0588 estimate

Q4-2025: Beat consensus by 16.5% - EPS $0.31 vs $0.266 estimate

Q3-2022: Missed consensus by 81.0% - EPS $-120 vs $-66.3 estimate

Q2-2022: Missed consensus by 194.1% - EPS $-60 vs $-20.4 estimate

Q4-2022: Missed consensus by 684.3% - EPS $-80 vs $-10.2 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.7% - EPS $0.24 vs $0.1989 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 26.5% - EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.068 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 215.8% - EPS $1.14 vs $-0.9843 estimate

Q4-2025: Missed consensus by 15.9% - EPS $0.64 vs $0.7609 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 18.6% - EPS $-0.91 vs $-1.1175 estimate

Q2-2025: Missed consensus by 28.7% - EPS $-2.1 vs $-1.632 estimate

Q1-2025: Beat consensus by 13.7% - EPS $-2.2 vs $-2.55 estimate

Q3-2025: Missed consensus by 28.2% - EPS $-1.7 vs $-1.326 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.4% - EPS $7.58 vs $6.9263 estimate

Q4-2025: Beat consensus by 474.1% - EPS $2.48 vs $-0.663 estimate

Q3-2025: Missed consensus by 80.4% - EPS $0.08 vs $0.408 estimate

Q3-2025: Missed consensus by 16.2% - EPS $1.04 vs $1.241 estimate

Q4-2025: Missed consensus by 6.0% - EPS $0.28 vs $0.298 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.6% - EPS $0.06 vs $0.051 estimate

Prediction market repriced: "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" moved +15pp in 24h to 33%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2" moved -18pp in 24h to 40%

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

MSFT RSI 77.5 - overbought (crossed above 70)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?" moved -15pp in 24h to 60%

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

Prediction market repriced: "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?" moved -16pp in 24h to 68%

MSFT RSI 77.5 - overbought (crossed above 70)