2026-07-29

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-07-29?" moved -22pp in 24h to 44%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29?" moved +34pp in 24h to 55%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?" moved +24pp in 24h to 27%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July": $10,922 in orders from 46 wallets absorbed at the 79% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jul": $11,714 in orders from 23 wallets absorbed at the 79% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?" moved +38pp in 24h to 96%

Polymarket order flow on "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?": $21,942 in orders from 12 wallets absorbed at the 87% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-07-28?" moved +29pp in 24h to 82%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($24,114 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-07-29?" moved -17pp in 24h to 44%

Prediction market repriced: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?" moved -16pp in 24h to 48%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FK Kauno Žalgiris win on 2026-07-29?" moved -18pp in 24h to 37%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?" moved +18pp in 24h to 40%

VIX at 19.6: CAUTION territory

OSINT: Dow Jones drops 800 pts as chips fall, hike odds rise, Trump vows Iran strike

Prediction market repriced: "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" moved -16pp in 24h to 36%

OSINT: Assassin Targets Drone Mogul Andrei Cherezov in Tula, Survives Attack

Prediction market repriced: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?" moved -15pp in 24h to 57%

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?" moved +24pp in 24h to 29%

Oil +6.64%: significant gain on the session

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?" moved -40pp in 24h to 2%

OSINT: Anglo American eyes sale of De Beers diamond unit

Oil +4.37%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Yakutia chief warns coal phase-out endangers Russia’s security

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($17,167 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?": $26,750 in orders from 16 wallets absorbed at the 90% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction

Oil +4.13%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Iran vows to maintain full control of Strait of Hormuz

Polymarket order flow on "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?": $18,332 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 61% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": 8-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,573 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predi

OSINT: Fed Decision Looms, Markets Brace for Volatility

Gold +1.33%: significant gain on the session

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" moved -17pp in 24h to 44%

OSINT: Dow Jones drops 800 pts as chips fall, hike odds rise, Trump vows Iran strike

OSINT: Assassin Targets Drone Mogul Andrei Cherezov in Tula, Survives Attack

Prediction market repriced: "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 29?" moved -21pp in 24h to 38%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?": 8-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,738 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?" moved +15pp in 24h to 64%

OSINT: BlackRock Urges Senate to Pass Crypto Clarity Act

OSINT: Fed Decision Looms, Markets Brace for Volatility

OSINT: Meta CEO urges US to speed up AI development

QQQ RSI 27.8, oversold (crossed below 30)

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 10.8%, EPS $4.00 vs $4.4846 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 68.1%, EPS $0.9715 vs $0.5778 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 19.4%, EPS $-0.27 vs $-0.2261 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 20.5%, EPS $0.23 vs $0.2893 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 11.6%, EPS $0.23 vs $0.2601 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.0%, EPS $1.31 vs $1.2475 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 27.9%, EPS $1.57 vs $1.2271 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.7%, EPS $0.28 vs $0.2421 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 16.5%, EPS $0.07 vs $0.0601 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 432.2%, EPS $1.90 vs $0.357 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 39.6%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.0662 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.1%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.1377 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 50.8%, EPS $0.72 vs $0.4776 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 48.7%, EPS $1.85 vs $1.2439 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.5%, EPS $7.94 vs $7.1846 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 30.7%, EPS $0.08 vs $0.0612 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 44.1%, EPS $3.09 vs $2.1437 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 25.0%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.1734 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.0%, EPS $4.52 vs $4.8577 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 67.0%, EPS $-0.97 vs $-2.9376 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 41.8%, EPS $2.91 vs $2.0517 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 36.5%, EPS $0.42 vs $0.3077 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 84.3%, EPS $2.15 vs $1.1666 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.8%, EPS $0.59 vs $0.5576 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.8%, EPS $1.33 vs $1.1197 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 116.5%, EPS $1.5449 vs $0.7137 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 35.5%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.1241 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.1%, EPS $0.74 vs $0.6161 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 426.8%, EPS $0.55 vs $0.1044 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.5%, EPS $2.54 vs $2.3203 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.7%, EPS $3.22 vs $2.831 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.3%, EPS $1.44 vs $1.1966 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 337.5%, EPS $1.78 vs $0.4069 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.0%, EPS $3.60 vs $3.0512 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 337.8%, EPS $0.6777 vs $0.1548 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 56.4%, EPS $-0.63 vs $-0.4029 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 23.6%, EPS $-0.29 vs $-0.2346 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 579.9%, EPS $-0.31 vs $0.0646 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 46.2%, EPS $-0.80 vs $-0.5473 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 22.0%, EPS $-0.23 vs $-0.2949 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 7.6%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.2045 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.6%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.0893 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 17.4%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.0969 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 54.0%, EPS $2.05 vs $1.3308 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 265.4%, EPS $0.27 vs $-0.1632 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 614.7%, EPS $0.42 vs $-0.0816 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 35.7%, EPS $-0.082 vs $-0.1275 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 23.7%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.0918 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 117.8%, EPS $0.02 vs $-0.1122 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 19.1%, EPS $-0.22 vs $-0.272 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 14.1%, EPS $1.47 vs $1.288 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 16.6%, EPS $0.40 vs $0.4794 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 32.7%, EPS $0.53 vs $0.3993 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 71.9%, EPS $2.71 vs $1.5769 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 7.6%, EPS $-0.41 vs $-0.4437 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 58.4%, EPS $-0.38 vs $-0.2399 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 45.7%, EPS $0.07 vs $0.1289 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.3%, EPS $-0.40 vs $-0.4563 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 42.9%, EPS $5.39 vs $3.7708 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 24.1%, EPS $5.14 vs $4.142 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 14.8%, EPS $0.14 vs $0.122 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 16.1%, EPS $0.84 vs $0.7235 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 27.3%, EPS $-1.494 vs $-2.0553 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 30.0%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.0714 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 6.0%, EPS $-0.21 vs $-0.2235 estimate

Prediction market repriced: "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?" moved -20pp in 24h to 38%

OSINT: Senate Democrats May Back CLARITY Act, Signaling Crypto Regulation

OSINT: Fauci Invokes Fifth Amendment to Sidestep Senate Covid Inquiry

OSINT: Zuckerberg Calls for Faster US AI Development, Warns Against Over-Regulation

Prediction market repriced: "Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?" moved +18pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?" moved +18pp in 24h to 60%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?" moved -16pp in 24h to 10%

CubeSmart search volume spiked +33 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Tether's USAT Stablecoin Goes Live on Celo, Expands Beyond Ethereum

OSINT: JPMorgan Predicts Fed Holds Rates Today

OSINT: MoonPay unveils PayBox, AI-enabled non-custodial wallet for token trading

OSINT: Dow Jones drops 800 pts as chips fall, hike odds rise, Trump vows Iran strike

Prediction market repriced: "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?" moved -18pp in 24h to 8%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?" moved +19pp in 24h to 93%

OSINT: Assassin Targets Drone Mogul Andrei Cherezov in Tula, Survives Attack

OSINT: FOMC Meeting Today: Experts Debate Potential Fed Rate Cut

OSINT: Cava faces $2.2B insider trading lawsuit

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.5%, EPS $0.91 vs $0.8238 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 19.8%, EPS $0.35 vs $0.4363 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 11.1%, EPS $5.71 vs $5.1379 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 12.1%, EPS $2.82 vs $2.5148 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 10.5%, EPS $0.23 vs $0.257 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.7%, EPS $0.92 vs $0.9965 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.4%, EPS $0.77 vs $0.7306 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 45.1%, EPS $-1.22 vs $-0.8407 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.7%, EPS $0.24 vs $0.1989 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 46.1%, EPS $1.64 vs $1.1227 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.1%, EPS $2.87 vs $2.6317 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 67.9%, EPS $0.02 vs $0.0623 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.0%, EPS $0.27 vs $0.2904 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 51.1%, EPS $0.05 vs $0.0331 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 94.6%, EPS $0.01 vs $0.1838 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 452.9%, EPS $0.18 vs $-0.051 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.7%, EPS $1.07 vs $1.0027 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 51.4%, EPS $-2.04 vs $-1.347 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 712.2%, EPS $-0.09 vs $0.0147 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 3459.3%, EPS $0.84 vs $0.0236 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 34.6%, EPS $0.11 vs $0.1683 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 70.9%, EPS $0.92 vs $0.5383 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $1.59 vs $1.3133 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.6%, EPS $0.56 vs $0.4931 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.2%, EPS $0.78 vs $0.7413 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 8.3%, EPS $0.28 vs $0.3053 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.8%, EPS $0.26 vs $0.2412 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 24.9%, EPS $0.23 vs $0.1841 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 11.3%, EPS $0.45 vs $0.5075 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 124.8%, EPS $0.02 vs $-0.0808 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.8%, EPS $1.04 vs $1.104 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 7.6%, EPS $1 vs $0.9293 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 33.1%, EPS $0.87 vs $0.6538 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 15.9%, EPS $4.73 vs $4.08 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.5%, EPS $1.55 vs $1.4688 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.9%, EPS $0.47 vs $0.4356 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 30.3%, EPS $0.78 vs $0.5984 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.1%, EPS $6.06 vs $5.656 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 14.6%, EPS $0.39 vs $0.4566 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 5.4%, EPS $0.19 vs $0.1802 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 15.3%, EPS $0.77 vs $0.9094 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 132.8%, EPS $0.58 vs $0.2491 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 100.0%, EPS $0 vs $-0.0248 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 513.9%, EPS $0.31 vs $0.0505 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 405.0%, EPS $0.51 vs $0.101 estimate

Bond issued at elevated rate 6.25%, above the credit-stress threshold

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?" moved -31pp in 24h to 33%

Polymarket order flow on "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?": $10,963 in orders from 9 wallets absorbed at the 87% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 29?" moved +36pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?" moved +22pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?" moved +18pp in 24h to 68%

OSINT: BlackRock Urges Senate to Pass Crypto Clarity Act

OSINT: Meta CEO urges US to speed up AI development

OSINT: Fed Decision Looms, Markets Brace for Volatility

OSINT: Satoshi’s ‘I Don’t Have Time…’ Quote Marks 16-Year Anniversary

OSINT: Senate Democrats May Back CLARITY Act, Signaling Crypto Regulation

OSINT: Analyst predicts $11 million Bitcoin price by Q1 2036

OSINT: US lawmakers push to amend BRCA protections for crypto developers

OSINT: Zuckerberg Calls for Faster US AI Development, Warns Against Over-Regulation

OSINT: Fauci Invokes Fifth Amendment to Sidestep Senate Covid Inquiry

OSINT: MoonPay unveils PayBox, AI-enabled non-custodial wallet for token trading

OSINT: Crypto ETFs see divergent flows: Bitcoin out, Ethereum in

OSINT: Whale 0xC8b5 Takes $37.3M 3x Long Position in SKHX, Nets $778K Profit

OSINT: Tether's USAT Stablecoin Goes Live on Celo, Expands Beyond Ethereum

OSINT: FOMC Meeting Today: Experts Debate Potential Fed Rate Cut

OSINT: TradFi Perpetual Open Interest Doubles to $2B, Binance Holds 35% Share

OSINT: BlackRock Urges Senate to Pass Crypto Clarity Act

OSINT: Fed Decision Looms, Markets Brace for Volatility

DXY -0.41%, dollar weakness signal

OSINT: Analyst predicts $11 million Bitcoin price by Q1 2036

OSINT: Fauci Invokes Fifth Amendment to Sidestep Senate Covid Inquiry

OSINT: JPMorgan Predicts Fed Holds Rates Today

OSINT: Tether's USAT Stablecoin Goes Live on Celo, Expands Beyond Ethereum

OSINT: Dow Jones drops 800 pts as chips fall, hike odds rise, Trump vows Iran strike

OSINT: Assassin Targets Drone Mogul Andrei Cherezov in Tula, Survives Attack

OSINT: FOMC Meeting Today: Experts Debate Potential Fed Rate Cut