2026-07-29

Platinum volume spike - 6.5× the 20-day average (47 vs 7 avg)

Gold volume spike - 3.6× the 20-day average (1,408 vs 387 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 6.6× the 20-day average (156,953 vs 23,665 avg)

Coffee volume spike - 3.5× the 20-day average (16,261 vs 4,683 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 674.3× the 20-day average (13,688 vs 20 avg)

Gold +2.87%: significant gain on the session

Oil +6.55%: significant gain on the session

Cocoa volume spike - 2.5× the 20-day average (19,290 vs 7,617 avg)

Corn volume spike - 2.9× the 20-day average (212,169 vs 72,500 avg)

OSINT: Trump Signals US Strikes on Iran Over Jordan Attacks

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?" moved +24pp in 24h to 29%

Oil +6.64%: significant gain on the session

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?" moved -40pp in 24h to 2%

OSINT: Anglo American eyes sale of De Beers diamond unit

Oil +4.37%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Yakutia chief warns coal phase-out endangers Russia’s security

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($17,167 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?": $26,750 in orders from 16 wallets absorbed at the 90% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction

Oil +4.13%: significant gain on the session

OSINT: Iran vows to maintain full control of Strait of Hormuz

Polymarket order flow on "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?": $18,332 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 61% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": 8-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,573 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predi

OSINT: Iran launches ballistic missiles from Yazd, destination unclear

OSINT: Iran Strikes Jordan and Egypt Prompt CENTCOM Alert, US Prepares Bigger Response

Prediction market repriced: "Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?" moved -16pp in 24h to 8%

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" moved -18pp in 24h to 22%

OSINT: Fed Decision Looms, Markets Brace for Volatility

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?" moved +44pp in 24h to 93%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?" moved -27pp in 24h to 3%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($25,143 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $12,840 in orders from 19 wallets absorbed at the 48% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": $28,723 in orders from 19 wallets absorbed at the 37% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $14,341 in orders from 9 wallets absorbed at the 44% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict

Prediction market repriced: "Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-07-29?" moved +54pp in 24h to 96%

Prediction market repriced: "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?" moved +46pp in 24h to 69%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-07-29?" moved -22pp in 24h to 44%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29?" moved +34pp in 24h to 55%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?" moved +24pp in 24h to 27%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July": $10,922 in orders from 46 wallets absorbed at the 79% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jul": $11,714 in orders from 23 wallets absorbed at the 79% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?" moved +38pp in 24h to 96%

Polymarket order flow on "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?": $21,942 in orders from 12 wallets absorbed at the 87% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-07-28?" moved +29pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-07-29?" moved -15pp in 24h to 42%

OSINT: Iran launches ballistic missiles from Yazd, destination unclear

OSINT: Iran Strikes Jordan and Egypt Prompt CENTCOM Alert, US Prepares Bigger Response

OSINT: Trump Signals US Strikes on Iran Over Jordan Attacks

OSINT: Boeing incurs $280M loss on Air Force One program, total losses exceed $3B

VIX at 20.7: CAUTION territory

Prediction market repriced: "Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?" moved -19pp in 24h to 45%

Prediction market repriced: "Fed rate hike in 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 62%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?" moved +19pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 25%

Prediction market repriced: "Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?" moved -16pp in 24h to 52%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($24,114 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?" moved -24pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?" moved -31pp in 24h to 33%

Polymarket order flow on "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?": $10,963 in orders from 9 wallets absorbed at the 87% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 29?" moved +36pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?" moved +22pp in 24h to 74%

W funding -0.0216% · 2th percentile of its 109d Binance history

OSINT: 360k Korean Margin Accounts Liquidated, 62% Belong to Under-35s

OSINT: Korean Retail Traders Lose $38.7B on Leveraged Products, Citi Says

OSINT: 🔥 INSIGHT: Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have lasted an average of 383 days

OSINT: SolanaMobile allocates 27M SKR for Seeker Summer Round 2

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?" moved +18pp in 24h to 68%

OSINT: Fed Decision Looms, Markets Brace for Volatility

OSINT: BlackRock Urges Senate to Pass Crypto Clarity Act

OSINT: Meta CEO urges US to speed up AI development

OSINT: Satoshi’s ‘I Don’t Have Time…’ Quote Marks 16-Year Anniversary

Prediction market repriced: "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 29?" moved -21pp in 24h to 38%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?": 8-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,738 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?" moved -17pp in 24h to 20%

OSINT: Boeing incurs $280M loss on Air Force One program, total losses exceed $3B

OSINT: 360k Korean Margin Accounts Liquidated, 62% Belong to Under-35s

OSINT: Korean Retail Traders Lose $38.7B on Leveraged Products, Citi Says

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.1%, EPS $1.46 vs $1.3508 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 622.8%, EPS $0.97 vs $0.1342 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.7%, EPS $1.52 vs $1.438 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 1641.2%, EPS $17.5127 vs $1.0058 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.9%, EPS $3.57 vs $3.1891 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 79.7%, EPS $-0.10 vs $-0.4938 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 454.6%, EPS $0.64 vs $0.1154 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 61.2%, EPS $44.60 vs $115.0208 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 31.3%, EPS $0.75 vs $0.5712 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 33.3%, EPS $5.31 vs $3.9843 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.0%, EPS $1.91 vs $1.785 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 43.6%, EPS $6.12 vs $4.2612 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 15.5%, EPS $1.39 vs $1.6443 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.8%, EPS $1.02 vs $0.9375 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 140.5%, EPS $0.65 vs $0.2703 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.5%, EPS $3.09 vs $2.7472 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.8%, EPS $3.14 vs $3.4071 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 35.5%, EPS $-0.16 vs $-0.2479 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.9%, EPS $1.38 vs $1.3029 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.9%, EPS $2.50 vs $2.3606 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.0%, EPS $1.68 vs $1.5409 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.6%, EPS $1.09 vs $1.0041 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.5%, EPS $1.51 vs $1.4045 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 10.5%, EPS $1.53 vs $1.3851 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.0%, EPS $-0.24 vs $-0.2856 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 68.2%, EPS $0.09 vs $0.2832 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 5.1%, EPS $1.35 vs $1.4221 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.9%, EPS $2.46 vs $2.2175 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 19.2%, EPS $44.1761 vs $37.0592 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.2%, EPS $0.94 vs $0.8771 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.0%, EPS $0.53 vs $0.469 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 20.6%, EPS $0.1967 vs $0.2478 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 22.0%, EPS $0.70 vs $0.5737 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 12.6%, EPS $0.5793 vs $0.6626 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 74.0%, EPS $0.11 vs $0.4233 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 22.9%, EPS $0.79 vs $0.6426 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.8%, EPS $1.38 vs $1.1326 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 22.9%, EPS $0.52 vs $0.4231 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.1%, EPS $0.75 vs $0.707 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 27.6%, EPS $0.94 vs $0.7364 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 46.0%, EPS $0.98 vs $1.8162 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 26.2%, EPS $0.64 vs $0.5073 estimate

CubeSmart search volume spiked +33 pts, unusual interest

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 18.3%, EPS $0.24 vs $0.2936 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 31.2%, EPS $-0.47 vs $-0.6834 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 70.5%, EPS $-0.58 vs $-1.9635 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 23.0%, EPS $0.12 vs $0.1559 estimate

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.55%, above the credit-stress threshold

S&P 500 MINI: speculators net short 16,784 contracts (+2.6σ vs 52w mean), still net short but far less short than usual, positioning unwinding toward long

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?" moved +15pp in 24h to 64%

OSINT: Fed Decision Looms, Markets Brace for Volatility

OSINT: BlackRock Urges Senate to Pass Crypto Clarity Act

OSINT: Meta CEO urges US to speed up AI development

QQQ RSI 27.8, oversold (crossed below 30)

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 10.8%, EPS $4.00 vs $4.4846 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 68.1%, EPS $0.9715 vs $0.5778 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 19.4%, EPS $-0.27 vs $-0.2261 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 20.5%, EPS $0.23 vs $0.2893 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 11.6%, EPS $0.23 vs $0.2601 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.0%, EPS $1.31 vs $1.2475 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 27.9%, EPS $1.57 vs $1.2271 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.7%, EPS $0.28 vs $0.2421 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 16.5%, EPS $0.07 vs $0.0601 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 432.2%, EPS $1.90 vs $0.357 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 39.6%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.0662 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.1%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.1377 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 50.8%, EPS $0.72 vs $0.4776 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 48.7%, EPS $1.85 vs $1.2439 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.5%, EPS $7.94 vs $7.1846 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 30.7%, EPS $0.08 vs $0.0612 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 44.1%, EPS $3.09 vs $2.1437 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 25.0%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.1734 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.0%, EPS $4.52 vs $4.8577 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 67.0%, EPS $-0.97 vs $-2.9376 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 41.8%, EPS $2.91 vs $2.0517 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 36.5%, EPS $0.42 vs $0.3077 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 84.3%, EPS $2.15 vs $1.1666 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.8%, EPS $0.59 vs $0.5576 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.8%, EPS $1.33 vs $1.1197 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 116.5%, EPS $1.5449 vs $0.7137 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 35.5%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.1241 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.1%, EPS $0.74 vs $0.6161 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 426.8%, EPS $0.55 vs $0.1044 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.5%, EPS $2.54 vs $2.3203 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.7%, EPS $3.22 vs $2.831 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.3%, EPS $1.44 vs $1.1966 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 337.5%, EPS $1.78 vs $0.4069 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.0%, EPS $3.60 vs $3.0512 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 337.8%, EPS $0.6777 vs $0.1548 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 56.4%, EPS $-0.63 vs $-0.4029 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 23.6%, EPS $-0.29 vs $-0.2346 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 579.9%, EPS $-0.31 vs $0.0646 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 46.2%, EPS $-0.80 vs $-0.5473 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 22.0%, EPS $-0.23 vs $-0.2949 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 7.6%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.2045 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 17.4%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.0969 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.6%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.0893 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 54.0%, EPS $2.05 vs $1.3308 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 614.7%, EPS $0.42 vs $-0.0816 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 265.4%, EPS $0.27 vs $-0.1632 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 35.7%, EPS $-0.082 vs $-0.1275 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 23.7%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.0918 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 117.8%, EPS $0.02 vs $-0.1122 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 19.1%, EPS $-0.22 vs $-0.272 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 14.1%, EPS $1.47 vs $1.288 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 16.6%, EPS $0.40 vs $0.4794 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 32.7%, EPS $0.53 vs $0.3993 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 71.9%, EPS $2.71 vs $1.5769 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 7.6%, EPS $-0.41 vs $-0.4437 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 58.4%, EPS $-0.38 vs $-0.2399 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.3%, EPS $-0.40 vs $-0.4563 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 45.7%, EPS $0.07 vs $0.1289 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 42.9%, EPS $5.39 vs $3.7708 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 24.1%, EPS $5.14 vs $4.142 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 14.8%, EPS $0.14 vs $0.122 estimate

OSINT: Korean Retail Traders Lose $38.7B on Leveraged Products, Citi Says

OSINT: Iran launches ballistic missiles from Yazd, destination unclear

OSINT: Trump Signals US Strikes on Iran Over Jordan Attacks

OSINT: Iran Strikes Jordan and Egypt Prompt CENTCOM Alert, US Prepares Bigger Response

OSINT: 360k Korean Margin Accounts Liquidated, 62% Belong to Under-35s

EUR/USD: speculators net short 41,338 contracts (-2.5σ vs 52w mean), crowded short positioning, contrarian bull signal

OSINT: Fed Decision Looms, Markets Brace for Volatility

OSINT: BlackRock Urges Senate to Pass Crypto Clarity Act

DXY -0.41%, dollar weakness signal