2026-08-09

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-08-09?" moved +63pp in 24h to 88%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?" moved +74pp in 24h to 93%

china_us_west shipping +11.4%, potential inflation signal

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($71,353 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Beau Hossler win the 2026 Wyndham Championship?" moved -28pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-08-09?" moved +24pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-08-09?" moved +42pp in 24h to 62%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Royal Antwerp FC win on 2026-08-09?" moved -22pp in 24h to 30%

Prediction market repriced: "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?" moved -21pp in 24h to 8%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-08-09?" moved +45pp in 24h to 62%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Rangers FC win on 2026-08-09?" moved -44pp in 24h to 18%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Twente win on 2026-08-09?" moved -40pp in 24h to 4%

china_us_west shipping +11.4%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Sion win on 2026-08-09?" moved -40pp in 24h to 26%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-09?" moved +28pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-08-09?" moved -24pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-08-09?" moved +51pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-09?" moved +25pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?" moved +21pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?" moved +27pp in 24h to 30%

Prediction market repriced: "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?" moved +22pp in 24h to 48%

china_us_west shipping +11.4%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?" moved +31pp in 24h to 66%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $25,454 in orders from 48 wallets absorbed at the 63% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($14,956 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($17,314 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" moved +29pp in 24h to 56%

Polymarket order flow on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($13,989 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction m

china_us_west shipping +11.4%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30?" moved -35pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-08-08?" moved +20pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?" moved +30pp in 24h to 50%

OSINT: US Defense Push Accelerates Weapon Production Amid Iran War Shortages

OSINT: Russia May Cancel Water Canal Environmental Damage Fees

Prediction market repriced: "Will Once Caldas win on 2026-08-09?" moved -16pp in 24h to 34%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-08-09?" moved +19pp in 24h to 64%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-08-09?" moved -19pp in 24h to 26%

OSINT: US Navy Deploys 20 Warships, Including USS Ross, Amid Red Sea Tensions

OSINT: Trump says US is low-keying Iran talks, options to walk away shrink

OSINT: US Navy Deploys 20 Warships, Including USS Ross, Amid Red Sea Tensions

OSINT: Saudi UAV Crash Involving Possible Chinese Wing Loong II

OSINT: US Army M109A7 Paladin Howitzers Conduct Live-Fire Drill in Poland

OSINT: US E-3G AWACS Departs Germany for Saudi Arabia Amid Iran Conflict

Prediction market repriced: "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 52%

OSINT: UK-made Spartan APC fitted with giant anti-drone cage joins Ukrainian forces

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 30%

OSINT: Interest in PACAF tanker sighting raises regional military alert

OSINT: US Army V Corps commander in Poland removed amid NATO tensions

OSINT: U.S. MQ-9A Reaper Drone Crashes Near Djibouti's Chabelley Airfield

OSINT: Trump's Aggressive Acquisition of US Production Assets Raises Market Concerns

Prediction market repriced: "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?" moved +15pp in 24h to 47%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" moved -17pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?" moved -20pp in 24h to 20%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Porto win on 2026-08-09?" moved +15pp in 24h to 98%

Prediction market repriced: "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" moved -18pp in 24h to 24%

Prediction market repriced: "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" moved -18pp in 24h to 24%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 44%

OSINT: South Africa ramps up deportation offensive amid migrant crackdown

OSINT: Rheinmetall CEO Flags Rising Global Threats, Boosting Defense Outlook

OSINT: 12 F-35A 'VT' Jets Arrive in CENTCOM Feb 2026

OSINT: South Korea worries NK training troops in Ukraine for future aggression

Sugar No. 11 volume spike - 3.3× the 20-day average (209,693 vs 63,228 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 5.8× the 20-day average (38 vs 6 avg)

OSINT: Gen Z Home-Living Hits 50%, Boosting Financial Support Trends

Soybeans volume spike - 2.8× the 20-day average (73,091 vs 26,319 avg)

Polymarket order flow on "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?": $22,002 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 44% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" moved -22pp in 24h to 14%

OSINT: Trump Mulls Walking Away from Iran War if Strait Reopens

OSINT: Iran threatens to keep Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets demands

Brazil Minas Gerais: crop water stress detected (2.6σ above baseline) - potential KC=F supply pressure

OSINT: Policymakers Consider Money Printing to Boost Stocks, Warn of Bubble Risks

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": $13,953 in orders from 13 wallets absorbed at the 78% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict

OSINT: US Defense Push Accelerates Weapon Production Amid Iran War Shortages

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($65,547 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predic

OSINT: Russia May Cancel Water Canal Environmental Damage Fees

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($136,629 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?" moved +15pp in 24h to 84%

OSINT: US Navy Deploys 20 Warships, Including USS Ross, Amid Red Sea Tensions

OSINT: Trump says US is low-keying Iran talks, options to walk away shrink

OSINT: Saudi UAV Crash Involving Possible Chinese Wing Loong II

Oil +1.10%: significant gain on the session

Gold +1.41%: significant gain on the session

Coffee volume spike - 2.2× the 20-day average (21,753 vs 9,947 avg)

Sugar No. 11 rose 5.9% vs prior close ($15.57 → $16.49)

OSINT: US E-3G AWACS Departs Germany for Saudi Arabia Amid Iran Conflict

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 254,489 contracts, 65.20% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($41,219 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

GOLD RSI 74.0, overbought (crossed above 70)

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" moved -18pp in 24h to 40%

OSINT: Interest in PACAF tanker sighting raises regional military alert

OSINT: Trump's Aggressive Acquisition of US Production Assets Raises Market Concerns

OSINT: Rheinmetall CEO Flags Rising Global Threats, Boosting Defense Outlook

OSINT: US Economic Data & OPEC Report Set to Drive Markets This Week

Polymarket order flow on "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?": $11,339 in orders from 12 wallets absorbed at the 57% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,752 contracts, 18.63% of open interest (+2.7σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

ARB funding -0.0256% · 1th percentile of its 203d Binance history

ARB funding -0.0255% · 1th percentile of its 203d Binance history

KMNO funding -0.1309% · 1th percentile of its 119d Binance history

TOAD/SOL has $37.5M 24h volume on $521K liquidity (72x turnover): thin market, elevated slippage

KMNO funding -0.1102% · 1th percentile of its 119d Binance history

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9?" moved -20pp in 24h to 30%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?" moved -16pp in 24h to 34%

OSINT: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong praises crypto’s role in global financial access

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.53x): on-chain trade volume 0.53x liquidity

OSINT: Dollar Weakness Relieves Pressure on Bitcoin, Boosts Crypto Sentiment

OSINT: Roughnecks Pauses BIP-110 Mining, Minor Hashrate Still Active

OSINT: US M2 Money Supply Hits Record $23.2T

KMNO funding -0.0411% · 2th percentile of its 120d Binance history

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on August 9?" moved +19pp in 24h to 70%

Debt issued with acquisition financing named as the use of proceeds

OSINT: Nearly 40% of Near-Retirees Lack Any Retirement Account, Fortune Reports

OSINT: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong praises crypto’s role in global financial access

OSINT: Gen Z Home-Living Hits 50%, Boosting Financial Support Trends

7 congress members traded LTH: net selling (0B/0S)

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 14,639 contracts, 4.82% of open interest (-2.1σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 29.2%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.1836 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 15.1%, EPS $0.34 vs $0.4003 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.4%, EPS $0.21 vs $0.1868 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 121.3%, EPS $0.95 vs $0.4293 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 47.9%, EPS $0.09 vs $0.1727 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 11.7%, EPS $39.25 vs $35.1395 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.7%, EPS $1.26 vs $1.1382 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 63.3%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.0796 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.9%, EPS $0.40 vs $0.3308 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.1%, EPS $-0.28 vs $-0.2952 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 28.5%, EPS $-0.90 vs $-1.2587 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 9.9%, EPS $0.65 vs $0.5916 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.1%, EPS $0.93 vs $0.8296 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $0.17 vs $0.1404 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.1%, EPS $0.43 vs $0.3642 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $1.37 vs $1.1312 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 163.6%, EPS $0.64 vs $0.2428 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.5%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.1287 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.3%, EPS $-0.33 vs $-0.2912 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.3%, EPS $0.9728 vs $0.9148 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 185.3%, EPS $-0.11 vs $0.1289 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.0%, EPS $1.87 vs $2.1482 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 41.5%, EPS $1.17 vs $0.8269 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 55.7%, EPS $0.42 vs $0.2697 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 58.0%, EPS $0.03 vs $0.0714 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 94.5%, EPS $0.01 vs $0.1813 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 284.6%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.0572 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 70.3%, EPS $0.43 vs $0.2525 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 19.5%, EPS $1.34 vs $1.1213 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 85.0%, EPS $0.54 vs $3.5941 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 9.6%, EPS $-0.43 vs $-0.3924 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 27.9%, EPS $0.17 vs $0.1329 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.4%, EPS $0.33 vs $0.3044 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.2%, EPS $0.27 vs $0.245 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 103.4%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.1819 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 23.7%, EPS $1.79 vs $1.4468 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 52.2%, EPS $0.59 vs $0.3877 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.9%, EPS $2.08 vs $1.8101 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.3%, EPS $0.47 vs $0.4148 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.1%, EPS $0.78 vs $0.8221 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 62.3%, EPS $-0.10 vs $-0.2652 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 1031.1%, EPS $1.27 vs $-0.1364 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 172.2%, EPS $-0.65 vs $-0.2388 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 42.3%, EPS $0.17 vs $0.2947 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.7%, EPS $0.69 vs $0.653 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 165.4%, EPS $-0.09 vs $0.1377 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 66.4%, EPS $0.19 vs $0.5661 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 1157.5%, EPS $1.8397 vs $0.1463 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.0%, EPS $5.45 vs $4.5046 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 784.0%, EPS $2.58 vs $-0.3772 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.2%, EPS $0.82 vs $0.7121 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.1%, EPS $0.422 vs $0.3939 estimate

OSINT: UK-made Spartan APC fitted with giant anti-drone cage joins Ukrainian forces

Phillips 66 search volume spiked +34 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: U.S. MQ-9A Reaper Drone Crashes Near Djibouti's Chabelley Airfield

OSINT: Trump's Aggressive Acquisition of US Production Assets Raises Market Concerns

OSINT: US M2 Money Supply Hits Record $23.2T

OSINT: Berkshire Hathaway Deploys Cash into Alphabet and Share Buybacks

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.0%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.4%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 4.829%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 6.15%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.243%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.168%, above the credit-stress threshold

Large debt issuance: $1.0B due 2034

Large debt issuance: $1.2B due 2030

Large debt issuance: $1.2B at 4.5% due 2028

7 congress members traded LTH: net selling (0B/0S)

OSINT: US Defense Push Accelerates Weapon Production Amid Iran War Shortages

OSINT: Russia May Cancel Water Canal Environmental Damage Fees

OSINT: Nearly 40% of Near-Retirees Lack Any Retirement Account, Fortune Reports

OSINT: Japan's Top Life Insurers Record $96B Bond Losses in Q2 2026

OSINT: Trump says US is low-keying Iran talks, options to walk away shrink

OSINT: US Navy Deploys 20 Warships, Including USS Ross, Amid Red Sea Tensions

OSINT: US E-3G AWACS Departs Germany for Saudi Arabia Amid Iran Conflict

DXY RSI 29.5, oversold (crossed below 30)

OSINT: US Army V Corps commander in Poland removed amid NATO tensions

OSINT: U.S. MQ-9A Reaper Drone Crashes Near Djibouti's Chabelley Airfield

OSINT: Interest in PACAF tanker sighting raises regional military alert

Prediction market repriced: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" moved -17pp in 24h to 3%

OSINT: Dollar Weakness Relieves Pressure on Bitcoin, Boosts Crypto Sentiment

OSINT: US M2 Money Supply Hits Record $23.2T

OSINT: South Africa ramps up deportation offensive amid migrant crackdown

OSINT: Rheinmetall CEO Flags Rising Global Threats, Boosting Defense Outlook

OSINT: South Korea worries NK training troops in Ukraine for future aggression