Kresmion signals archive
255 cross-asset signals fired across commodity, crypto, equity, forex, macro. See also the Kresmion brief for 2026-08-28.
macro (20)
- criticalPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?" moved -61pp in 24h to 3%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved -53pp in 24h to 3%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?" moved +26pp in 24h to 46%
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $26,128 in orders from 7 wallets absorbed at the 70% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict
tanker_freight_etf shipping +17.8%, potential inflation signal
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Games Total: O/U 3.5" moved -40pp in 24h to 28%
Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": $17,409 in orders from 7 wallets absorbed at the 68% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predictio
tanker_freight_etf shipping +17.8%, potential inflation signal
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($14,609 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?" moved -22pp in 24h to 39%
tanker_freight_etf shipping +17.8%, potential inflation signal
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-28?" moved -16pp in 24h to 28%
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-08-28?" moved +19pp in 24h to 64%
OSINT: Shen Liantao Warns of Imminent Fundamental Economic Reset
OSINT: Shen Liantao Warns of Imminent Fundamental Economic Reset
OSINT: Venezuela Mulls OPEC Exit, Could Shift Oil Market Dynamics
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 65%
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($18,274 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
OSINT: Russia dismisses EU negotiation initiatives, says Galuzin
OSINT: Wheat and Corn Prices Surge
equity (109)
3 insiders at CRWV sold $49.1M this week
2 insiders at THC sold $28.0M this week
3 insiders at SCHW sold $34.2M this week
3 insiders at JMKE sold $120.8M this week
4 insiders at LITE sold $45.5M this week
3 insiders at CRWV sold $49.1M this week
2 insiders at THC sold $28.0M this week
3 insiders at SCHW sold $34.2M this week
3 insiders at JMKE sold $120.8M this week
4 insiders at LITE sold $45.5M this week
3 insiders at CRWV sold $49.1M this week
3 insiders at SCHW sold $34.2M this week
5 insiders at SE sold $19.9M this week
5 insiders at DASH sold $23.8M this week
2 insiders at THC sold $28.0M this week
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 96.1%, EPS $-0.17 vs $-0.0867 estimate
Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 21.2%, EPS $0.60 vs $0.4949 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 272.8%, EPS $-0.58 vs $-0.1556 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 210.9%, EPS $-1.30 vs $-0.4182 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 59.3%, EPS $-0.09 vs $-0.221 estimate
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 48.9%, EPS $0.53 vs $0.356 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 30.7%, EPS $0.16 vs $0.1224 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 61.4%, EPS $-0.21 vs $-0.1301 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 64.9%, EPS $-0.74 vs $-0.4488 estimate
Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 14.9%, EPS $0.11 vs $0.1292 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 297.6%, EPS $-2.89 vs $-0.7268 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 26.5%, EPS $-0.06 vs $-0.0816 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.7%, EPS $-1.72 vs $-2.04 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 72.2%, EPS $-0.10 vs $-0.3592 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.1%, EPS $1.24 vs $1.3069 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 124.8%, EPS $-0.03 vs $0.1212 estimate
Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 27.0%, EPS $-0.9102 vs $-0.7167 estimate
Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 9.3%, EPS $1.67 vs $1.5283 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 400.6%, EPS $-10.11 vs $-2.0196 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 55.4%, EPS $-1.56 vs $-3.4986 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 11.3%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.4172 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 36.7%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.079 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 60.8%, EPS $-1.24 vs $-3.162 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 36.1%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.0808 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.1%, EPS $-0.15 vs $-0.1326 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.1%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.1768 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 38.4%, EPS $8.10 vs $5.8518 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 34.7%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.1039 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 28.7%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.0561 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 60.8%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.51 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 60.5%, EPS $-0.45 vs $-1.1404 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.4%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.0969 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.2%, EPS $-0.39 vs $-0.4342 estimate
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 131.9%, EPS $2.70 vs $1.1643 estimate
Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 10.8%, EPS $2.40 vs $2.1651 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 1172.7%, EPS $-1.40 vs $-0.11 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 146.3%, EPS $-0.081 vs $0.1751 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.2%, EPS $-2.32 vs $-2.907 estimate
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 78.4%, EPS $5.90 vs $3.3065 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 49.7%, EPS $-4.02 vs $-7.9968 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.0%, EPS $-0.18 vs $-0.2142 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 29.4%, EPS $-0.45 vs $-0.6375 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.2%, EPS $0.33 vs $0.2941 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 34.9%, EPS $0.79 vs $1.2139 estimate
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 33.0%, EPS $2.96 vs $2.2248 estimate
Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 6.3%, EPS $1.378 vs $1.2962 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 523.9%, EPS $-0.70 vs $-0.1122 estimate
Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 10.1%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.1224 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.8%, EPS $-0.09 vs $-0.102 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 283.8%, EPS $-3.65 vs $1.9856 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.7%, EPS $-0.27 vs $-0.3128 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 51.0%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.102 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 48.9%, EPS $0.72 vs $1.4085 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 69.7%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.6596 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 56.9%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.051 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 6.2%, EPS $-0.79 vs $-0.7436 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.5%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.3409 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.6%, EPS $-0.21 vs $-0.255 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.5%, EPS $0.84 vs $0.7601 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 105.3%, EPS $-2.68 vs $-1.3056 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 26.0%, EPS $-0.66 vs $-0.8917 estimate
NEWS CORP search volume spiked +43 pts, unusual interest
PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Fed Chair Announces Unexpected Rate Hike Tonight
OSINT: Youth Convenience Store Opens in Nanchang's Qingshanhu District
OSINT: 5th Origin Point Western Film Screening in Jiangsu Launches Sep with 14 Films
OSINT: Shen Liantao Warns of Imminent Fundamental Economic Reset
OSINT: Bitcoin bear market ‘over’ as price metric copies 2023 recovery: CryptoQuant CEO
OSINT: China Condemns U.S. Bank Sanctions, Cites Economic Risks
OSINT: Beijing Updates Education Map for New Semester
OSINT: J.P. Morgan says Alibaba AI spend will lag, market sell-off overreacts
OSINT: Great Wall launches Ora 5GT and Ora 5 Sport Edition at 7.18 万元
OSINT: Overseas AI leaders' earnings exceeded expectations; how will this affect A-shar
OSINT: Pakistan's Crypto Regime Launched on 8% of National Budget, Minister Says
OSINT: BitGo Acquires NYDIG Trading Arm to Boost Institutional Crypto Services
OSINT: Saitama CEO Charged with Market Manipulation, Extradition to US
OSINT: First-time car buyers get guidance on budget, usage, maintenance
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORP search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: OneKey Demonstrates Transaction Replacement Attack on Legacy Ledger Ethereum App
OSINT: Dacheng Active Growth Mixed A Beats Benchmark 10.3% H1 2026, Shifts Strategy
Prediction market repriced: "Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?" moved +16pp in 24h to 66%
LEVI STRAUSS & CO search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Sanan Optoelectronics posts 8.97% revenue rise, hits semiconductor breakthroughs
OSINT: Visa partners with Upbit’s parent to enable stablecoin and AI-driven payments
OSINT: Outperformed the benchmark by 0.47% in the first half of 2026! Penghua CSI Finte
- mediumcorporate_crypto_treasury
DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV, DFDVW, DFUKF) 8-K references 19,000 SOL treasury activity · filed 2026-08-27
NEWS CORP search volume spiked +43 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Second Bioethanol Summit Highlights Growing Demand
OSINT: French Auto Industry Leverages Legacy Chassis for AI-Driven EV Push
PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Invesco Great Wall Fund Beats Benchmark 72% H1 2026 on Semiconductor AI Bet
OSINT: Abu Dhabi Royal Acquires 49% of Trump-Linked Crypto Bank Venture
OSINT: Unique Tourist Activities Spark Interest in San Cristóbal de La Laguna & Bajamar
OSINT: Chuangjin Hexin Fund Beats Benchmark 28% H1 2026, Shifts to AI Focus H2
commodity (17)
Prediction market repriced: "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?" moved +28pp in 24h to 34%
Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact
OSINT: Japan readies yen intervention amid sharp currency drop
Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": $63,721 in orders from 10 wallets absorbed at the 87% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market
OSINT: OPEC Alert: Venezuela Oil Situation Raises Concerns
Gold +1.00%: significant gain on the session
Oil -1.03%: significant decline on the session
OSINT: Shen Liantao Warns of Imminent Fundamental Economic Reset
OSINT: KOLDI Boosts Contracting Volume 11% in H1 2026
OSINT: Corporate Price Pass-Through Hits 39.9% in Japan Survey
OSINT: Venezuela Mulls OPEC Exit, Could Shift Oil Market Dynamics
OSINT: Russia dismisses EU negotiation initiatives, says Galuzin
Gold +1.08%: significant gain on the session
OSINT: Second Bioethanol Summit Highlights Growing Demand
OSINT: French Auto Industry Leverages Legacy Chassis for AI-Driven EV Push
OSINT: Switzerland lifts Russian sanctions following referendum approval
OSINT: Visa, Mastercard Enable First International Payments in Syria
crypto (28)
ENA open interest +20.9% over 24h, OI surge
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 24-30?" moved -21pp in 24h to 26%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?" moved -27pp in 24h to 31%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?" moved -30pp in 24h to 41%
Polymarket order flow on "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($60,330 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 28?" moved +20pp in 24h to 28%
OSINT: Polish Olympic Committee head charged in Zondacrypto money-laundering probe
OSINT: Analyst predicts gold could hit $10,000 if US debt remains unfixed
OSINT: California Senate bans memecoin issuance by public officials
OSINT: Fed Chair Announces Unexpected Rate Hike Tonight
OSINT: Capital B Secures $24.5M for Bitcoin Treasury, Back Joins Funding
OSINT: Bitcoin bear market ‘over’ as price metric copies 2023 recovery: CryptoQuant CEO
OSINT: VeChain (VET) surges 55% in a month, eyes next move
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 August 24-30?" moved -17pp in 24h to 8%
OSINT: ENA token jumps 10% after Ethena announces revenue-funded buyback vote
OSINT: Pakistan's Crypto Regime Launched on 8% of National Budget, Minister Says
OSINT: BitGo Acquires NYDIG Trading Arm to Boost Institutional Crypto Services
OSINT: Iranian Rial Plummets: $1 Reaches 2 Million Rials
OSINT: OneKey Demonstrates Transaction Replacement Attack on Legacy Ledger Ethereum App
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on August 28?" moved -16pp in 24h to 4%
SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (1.68x): on-chain trade volume 1.68x liquidity
OSINT: Visa partners with Upbit’s parent to enable stablecoin and AI-driven payments
ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.60x): on-chain trade volume 0.60x liquidity
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 28?" moved +18pp in 24h to 44%
OSINT: The Sandbox vows 1:1 repayment after $700K bridge hack
OSINT: Abu Dhabi Royal Acquires 49% of Trump-Linked Crypto Bank Venture
OSINT: EU Mulls Seizing Frozen Russian Assets Amid War Damage Claims
OSINT: Visa, Mastercard Enable First International Payments in Syria
forex (26)
OSINT: Polish Olympic Committee head charged in Zondacrypto money-laundering probe
OSINT: Analyst predicts gold could hit $10,000 if US debt remains unfixed
OSINT: Fed Chair Announces Unexpected Rate Hike Tonight
OSINT: Shen Liantao Warns of Imminent Fundamental Economic Reset
OSINT: Bitcoin bear market ‘over’ as price metric copies 2023 recovery: CryptoQuant CEO
OSINT: ECB Likely to Raise Rates as French and Spanish Inflation Accelerates
OSINT: China Condemns U.S. Bank Sanctions, Cites Economic Risks
OSINT: KOLDI Boosts Contracting Volume 11% in H1 2026
OSINT: Overseas AI leaders' earnings exceeded expectations; how will this affect A-shar
OSINT: Corporate Price Pass-Through Hits 39.9% in Japan Survey
OSINT: Venezuela Mulls OPEC Exit, Could Shift Oil Market Dynamics
OSINT: Pakistan's Crypto Regime Launched on 8% of National Budget, Minister Says
OSINT: Russians Shift to Take-Away Coffee, Dimming Café Footfall
OSINT: Saitama CEO Charged with Market Manipulation, Extradition to US
OSINT: First-time car buyers get guidance on budget, usage, maintenance
OSINT: Iranian Rial Plummets: $1 Reaches 2 Million Rials
OSINT: Visa partners with Upbit’s parent to enable stablecoin and AI-driven payments
OSINT: Sanan Optoelectronics posts 8.97% revenue rise, hits semiconductor breakthroughs
OSINT: Russia dismisses EU negotiation initiatives, says Galuzin
OSINT: Wheat and Corn Prices Surge
OSINT: French Auto Industry Leverages Legacy Chassis for AI-Driven EV Push
OSINT: Switzerland lifts Russian sanctions following referendum approval
OSINT: Yen drops to mid-159 per USD amid position-adjustment selling
OSINT: Unique Tourist Activities Spark Interest in San Cristóbal de La Laguna & Bajamar
OSINT: Abu Dhabi Royal Acquires 49% of Trump-Linked Crypto Bank Venture
OSINT: Visa, Mastercard Enable First International Payments in Syria