2026-08-28

Soybeans volume spike - 13.5× the 20-day average (153,472 vs 11,410 avg)

Silver volume spike - 1447.0× the 20-day average (85,735 vs 59 avg)

Copper volume spike - 41.5× the 20-day average (37,352 vs 899 avg)

Gold volume spike - 279.3× the 20-day average (268,759 vs 962 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 7720.9× the 20-day average (25,865 vs 3 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 1189.1× the 20-day average (24,734 vs 20 avg)

Cocoa rose 7.8% vs prior close ($6,155.00 → $6,636.00)

Cocoa volume spike - 2.5× the 20-day average (31,271 vs 12,672 avg)

Corn volume spike - 2.5× the 20-day average (385,758 vs 154,645 avg)

CFTC COPPER speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

CFTC NATURAL GAS speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($13,571 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

OSINT: Russia Announces New Military Mobilization Amid Ukraine Conflict

Prediction market repriced: "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?" moved -38pp in 24h to 3%

Prediction market repriced: "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?" moved +28pp in 24h to 34%

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: Japan readies yen intervention amid sharp currency drop

Polymarket order flow on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?": $63,721 in orders from 10 wallets absorbed at the 87% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

OSINT: OPEC Alert: Venezuela Oil Situation Raises Concerns

Natural gas futures curve moved from backwardation to contango (front vs second month spread +5.0%)

Wheat rose 5.5% vs prior close ($742.75 → $783.50)

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 264,655 contracts, 65.71% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Gold -2.17%: significant decline on the session

Polymarket order flow on "US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?": 4-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($11,441 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction

OSINT: New US Fed chief signals readiness to raise rates

OSINT: Ukraine assures sufficient gas supplies to survive winter

OSINT: Ukrainian household utility debt hits 104.2 bn

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-08-28?" moved +68pp in 24h to 86%

Prediction market repriced: "Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?" moved -61pp in 24h to 3%

Prediction market repriced: "Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?" moved -20pp in 24h to 17%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-08-28?" moved +25pp in 24h to 56%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Dundalk FC win on 2026-08-28?" moved +29pp in 24h to 72%

Polymarket order flow on "US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($111,522 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?": $32,065 in orders from 39 wallets absorbed at the 86% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predictio

tanker_freight_etf shipping +17.8%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Viborg FF win on 2026-08-28?" moved +28pp in 24h to 83%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-08-28?" moved -24pp in 24h to 56%

Prediction market repriced: "Will England win?" moved +37pp in 24h to 93%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-08-28?" moved +44pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elche CF win on 2026-08-28?" moved -24pp in 24h to 3%

Prediction market repriced: "Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-08-28?" moved +37pp in 24h to 56%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $10,873 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 47% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict

Prediction market repriced: "Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?" moved +26pp in 24h to 46%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved -53pp in 24h to 3%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $26,128 in orders from 7 wallets absorbed at the 70% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict

Prediction market repriced: "Games Total: O/U 3.5" moved -40pp in 24h to 28%

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": $17,409 in orders from 7 wallets absorbed at the 68% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predictio

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($14,609 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?" moved -22pp in 24h to 39%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?" moved +17pp in 24h to 62%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul-Sep-Oct)?" moved +16pp in 24h to 60%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Jul-Sep-Oct)?" moved -16pp in 24h to 37%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun-Jul-Sep)?" moved +19pp in 24h to 51%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Jun-Jul-Sep)?" moved -20pp in 24h to 48%

Prediction market repriced: "Will ASC Oțelul Galați win on 2026-08-28?" moved -18pp in 24h to 16%

OSINT: 2026 Chengdu Import Carnival Launches, Boosting Trade and Consumer Imports

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($37,472 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" moved -16pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" moved +18pp in 24h to 48%

Prediction market repriced: "Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?" moved +18pp in 24h to 48%

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on August 29?" moved -41pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 29?" moved -39pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 29?" moved -40pp in 24h to 47%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?" moved -24pp in 24h to 5%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?" moved +36pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?" moved -20pp in 24h to 8%

ENA open interest +20.9% over 24h, OI surge

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 24-30?" moved -21pp in 24h to 26%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?" moved -30pp in 24h to 41%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?" moved -27pp in 24h to 31%

Polymarket order flow on "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($60,330 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 28?" moved +20pp in 24h to 28%

OSINT: Bitcoin Cools Off After $3 Billion ETF-Driven Surge

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?" moved +18pp in 24h to 32%

OSINT: Grayscale says rising debt fuels debasement trade, boosting Bitcoin

OSINT: Metaplanet CEO: Bitcoin’s Growth Surge Hits Far East

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (2.30x): on-chain trade volume 2.30x liquidity

OSINT: Solana Validators Back Plan to Speed Up SOL Disinflation

ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.51x): on-chain trade volume 0.51x liquidity

Prediction market repriced: "Will Solana reach $120 in August?" moved -19pp in 24h to 5%

OSINT: New US Fed chief signals readiness to raise rates

OSINT: Capital B Secures €21M Funding from Adam Back, TOBAM to Expand Bitcoin Holdings

OSINT: Chelsea FC signs stablecoin sponsorship amid FCA club warning

OSINT: Bullish provides USD.AI $100M stablecoin facility for GPU-backed lending

OSINT: Solana ETFs Record $60.9M Inflows, BSOL Token Reaches $1B AUM

Polymarket order flow on "Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?": $23,382 in orders from 5 wallets absorbed at the 90% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

OSINT: Nvidia Announces 70% Revenue Growth, Propelling NVDA Shares Higher

ETH liquidations totaled $5.4M in the past hour, 45% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

BTC liquidations totaled $5.7M in the past hour, 54% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

OSINT: SpaceX 2026 Top Shareholders Revealed, Institutional Stakes Surge

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.99x): on-chain trade volume 0.99x liquidity

ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.50x): on-chain trade volume 0.50x liquidity

3 insiders at JMKE sold $120.8M this week

4 insiders at LITE sold $45.5M this week

3 insiders at CRWV sold $49.1M this week

2 insiders at THC sold $28.0M this week

3 insiders at SCHW sold $34.2M this week

5 insiders at DASH sold $23.8M this week

5 insiders at SE sold $19.9M this week

Bullish search volume spiked +32 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Bitcoin Cools Off After $3 Billion ETF-Driven Surge

E-mini Nasdaq-100 speculative net position crossed to net long (first flip in 3 weeks)

WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORP search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Metaplanet CEO: Bitcoin’s Growth Surge Hits Far East

LEVI STRAUSS & CO search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

NEWS CORP search volume spiked +43 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: France Q2 GDP Stagnates at 0.2% Growth, Missing Forecast

PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Chelsea FC signs stablecoin sponsorship amid FCA club warning

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.1%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 4.65%, above the credit-stress threshold

OSINT: AI Set to Boost Economy, Fed Monitors Impact

OSINT: Bullish provides USD.AI $100M stablecoin facility for GPU-backed lending

OSINT: Solana ETFs Record $60.9M Inflows, BSOL Token Reaches $1B AUM

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 28?" moved -18pp in 24h to 32%

OSINT: Nvidia Announces 70% Revenue Growth, Propelling NVDA Shares Higher

OSINT: 2026 Chengdu Import Carnival Launches, Boosting Trade and Consumer Imports

OSINT: SpaceX 2026 Top Shareholders Revealed, Institutional Stakes Surge

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 44.6%, EPS $-0.33 vs $-0.5959 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 63.1%, EPS $-1.16 vs $-0.7113 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 45.2%, EPS $-0.85 vs $-0.5855 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 45.5%, EPS $0.055 vs $0.101 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 79.8%, EPS $0.80 vs $3.9617 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 8.7%, EPS $2.77 vs $2.5479 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.0%, EPS $-0.23 vs $-0.219 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 92.2%, EPS $0.004 vs $0.051 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 37.2%, EPS $0.50 vs $0.7956 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 8.4%, EPS $-0.36 vs $-0.3322 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.0%, EPS $-0.15 vs $-0.1428 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 51.7%, EPS $-0.41 vs $-0.2703 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 94.9%, EPS $0.02 vs $0.3914 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 221.9%, EPS $0.63 vs $-0.5168 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 70.2%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.2346 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 164.2%, EPS $4.11 vs $1.5555 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.3%, EPS $-0.15 vs $-0.1836 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 31.2%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.1163 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 32.1%, EPS $0.23 vs $0.1741 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 30.2%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.2006 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 341.2%, EPS $-0.78 vs $-0.1768 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 43.3%, EPS $-0.19 vs $-0.1326 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 55.1%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.4896 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 81.5%, EPS $-0.87 vs $-0.4794 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.4%, EPS $-5.09 vs $-5.8752 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 16.9%, EPS $0.85 vs $0.7273 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 65.3%, EPS $0.41 vs $0.248 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 18.7%, EPS $0.70 vs $0.5897 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 96.1%, EPS $-0.17 vs $-0.0867 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 21.2%, EPS $0.60 vs $0.4949 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 272.8%, EPS $-0.58 vs $-0.1556 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 210.9%, EPS $-1.30 vs $-0.4182 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 59.3%, EPS $-0.09 vs $-0.221 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 48.9%, EPS $0.53 vs $0.356 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 30.7%, EPS $0.16 vs $0.1224 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 61.4%, EPS $-0.21 vs $-0.1301 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 64.9%, EPS $-0.74 vs $-0.4488 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 14.9%, EPS $0.11 vs $0.1292 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 297.6%, EPS $-2.89 vs $-0.7268 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 26.5%, EPS $-0.06 vs $-0.0816 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.7%, EPS $-1.72 vs $-2.04 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 72.2%, EPS $-0.10 vs $-0.3592 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.1%, EPS $1.24 vs $1.3069 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 124.8%, EPS $-0.03 vs $0.1212 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 27.0%, EPS $-0.9102 vs $-0.7167 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 9.3%, EPS $1.67 vs $1.5283 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 400.6%, EPS $-10.11 vs $-2.0196 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 55.4%, EPS $-1.56 vs $-3.4986 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 11.3%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.4172 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 36.7%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.079 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 60.8%, EPS $-1.24 vs $-3.162 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 36.1%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.0808 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.1%, EPS $-0.15 vs $-0.1326 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.1%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.1768 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 38.4%, EPS $8.10 vs $5.8518 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 34.7%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.1039 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 28.7%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.0561 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 60.8%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.51 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 60.5%, EPS $-0.45 vs $-1.1404 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.4%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.0969 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.2%, EPS $-0.39 vs $-0.4342 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 131.9%, EPS $2.70 vs $1.1643 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 10.8%, EPS $2.40 vs $2.1651 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 1172.7%, EPS $-1.40 vs $-0.11 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 146.3%, EPS $-0.081 vs $0.1751 estimate

OSINT: Bitcoin Cools Off After $3 Billion ETF-Driven Surge

OSINT: Grayscale says rising debt fuels debasement trade, boosting Bitcoin

OSINT: Metaplanet CEO: Bitcoin’s Growth Surge Hits Far East

DXY +0.53%, dollar strength signal

OSINT: US Monetary Policy Forecast Signals Potential Rate Shift

OSINT: France Q2 GDP Stagnates at 0.2% Growth, Missing Forecast

OSINT: New US Fed chief signals readiness to raise rates

OSINT: Ukraine assures sufficient gas supplies to survive winter

OSINT: Chelsea FC signs stablecoin sponsorship amid FCA club warning

OSINT: Ukrainian household utility debt hits 104.2 bn

OSINT: AI Set to Boost Economy, Fed Monitors Impact

OSINT: France Targets Shrinkflation to Combat Hidden Inflation

OSINT: France 2027 Budget Indexes RSA and Minimum Pension to Inflation

OSINT: 2026 Chengdu Import Carnival Launches, Boosting Trade and Consumer Imports

OSINT: SpaceX 2026 Top Shareholders Revealed, Institutional Stakes Surge

DXY +0.37%, dollar strength signal