2026-08-29

Gold -2.85%: significant decline on the session

OSINT: Iran claims US Treasury misreported 130M barrels moved through Strait of Hormuz

Prediction market repriced: "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?" moved -20pp in 24h to 3%

OSINT: Trump-Backed Token Promotes Gold, Then Crashes

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: US Signals Action on Venezuelan Oil Exports

OSINT: China Solar Industry Faces Losses, Growth Slows

OSINT: Israel Expels UK Delegates from Gaza Aid Center in Kiryat Gat

OSINT: Germany Blames Russia for Attempted Sabotage, Raises Tensions

Polymarket order flow on "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?": 6 BUY clips of ~$9,740 every ~121s over 0.2h ($58,440 total), consistent with TWAP execution on this prediction mar

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 264,655 contracts, 65.71% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Iran claims US Treasury misreported 130M barrels moved through Strait of Hormuz

OSINT: YPF teams with Italian giant for offshore Uruguay exploration

OSINT: Iran to Raise Gasoline Prices Amid Acknowledged US Sanctions, says Pezeshkian

OSINT: Proposed Law to Codify Autonomous Driving Raises Market Interest

OSINT: Russia to Roll Out New Laws in September, Says Volodin

OSINT: Powell’s Jackson Hole debut sparks rate-hike speculation

OSINT: SDF Dissolution Marks End of Kurdish Autonomy in Syria

OSINT: Rubio says US-Venezuela oil deal to draw $100 bn private investment

OSINT: Zelensky says US shared CIA chief's Moscow meeting intel with Kyiv

OSINT: Drone incidents hit Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, raising energy security concerns

OSINT: Putin to Meet Iran's President at SCO Summit to Discuss Middle East War

OSINT: Russian macro data sparks ruble volatility

Gold -2.29%: significant decline on the session

Prediction market repriced: "Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved +28pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?" moved +56pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved -30pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved -38pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-08-29?" moved -46pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will América de Cali win on 2026-08-29?" moved -25pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-29?" moved -48pp in 24h to 18%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved +50pp in 24h to 86%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $14,859 in orders from 48 wallets absorbed at the 55% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-08-29?" moved -24pp in 24h to 20%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Porto win on 2026-08-29?" moved +22pp in 24h to 96%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-08-29?" moved +53pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-08-29?" moved +22pp in 24h to 96%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AC Monza win on 2026-08-29?" moved -27pp in 24h to 2%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Royal Charleroi SC win on 2026-08-29?" moved -26pp in 24h to 22%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-29?" moved +24pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?" moved +27pp in 24h to 68%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Levante UD win on 2026-08-29?" moved +36pp in 24h to 64%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Everton FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved -22pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-08-29?" moved -24pp in 24h to 20%

Prediction market repriced: "Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-08-29?" moved +26pp in 24h to 68%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved +26pp in 24h to 79%

Prediction market repriced: "Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-08-29?" moved +56pp in 24h to 74%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $14,969 in orders from 28 wallets absorbed at the 57% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 6-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($29,160 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

tanker_freight_etf shipping +17.8%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved +28pp in 24h to 44%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?" moved +53pp in 24h to 95%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-08-29?" moved -22pp in 24h to 6%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($53,692 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?" moved +23pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?" moved +37pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-08-28?" moved +44pp in 24h to 88%

OSINT: Germany Blames Russia for Attempted Sabotage, Raises Tensions

OSINT: Russian strike damages Mykolaiv food warehouse

OSINT: Israel Expels UK Delegates from Gaza Aid Center in Kiryat Gat

OSINT: UK Navy Tracks Russian Warships in Home Waters for Three Days

OSINT: UK Navy Tracks Russian Warships in Home Waters for Three Days

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 M": $19,058 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 89% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict

OSINT: Iran claims US Treasury misreported 130M barrels moved through Strait of Hormuz

Prediction market repriced: "Will Kocaelispor win on 2026-08-29?" moved -15pp in 24h to 8%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($192,774 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pre

Prediction market repriced: "Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?" moved +18pp in 24h to 42%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?" moved -16pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved -19pp in 24h to 32%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Celtic FC win on 2026-08-29?" moved +17pp in 24h to 97%

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($19,614 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predic

OSINT: Russia to Roll Out New Laws in September, Says Volodin

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?" moved +18pp in 24h to 33%

OSINT: Rubio says US-Venezuela oil deal to draw $100 bn private investment

OSINT: SDF Dissolution Marks End of Kurdish Autonomy in Syria

OSINT: Putin to Meet Iran's President at SCO Summit to Discuss Middle East War

OSINT: Drone incidents hit Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, raising energy security concerns

OSINT: Zelensky says US shared CIA chief's Moscow meeting intel with Kyiv

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($21,073 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

OSINT: US Court Convicts Russian Citizen for Illicit Aircraft Parts Export

4 insiders at LITE sold $45.5M this week

4 insiders at CRWV sold $49.3M this week

3 insiders at LTH sold $378.3M this week

2 insiders at RLAY sold $116.5M this week

Debt issued with acquisition financing named as the use of proceeds

Debt issued with acquisition financing named as the use of proceeds

3 insiders at JMKE sold $120.8M this week

3 insiders at SCHW sold $34.2M this week

2 insiders at THC sold $28.0M this week

Life360, Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Rise in Fake Mobile Apps Triggers Consumer Alerts

NEWS CORP search volume spiked +43 pts, unusual interest

Bullish search volume spiked +32 pts, unusual interest

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.125%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.1%, above the credit-stress threshold

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.05%, above the credit-stress threshold

OSINT: Druckenmiller Dumps Micron, Intel for High-Growth Chip Stock

LEVI STRAUSS & CO search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.5%, EPS $-1.52 vs $-1.6079 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 11.1%, EPS $-0.51 vs $-0.459 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.6%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.085 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 179.2%, EPS $-0.20 vs $0.2525 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 26.9%, EPS $-0.25 vs $-0.3422 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 11.1%, EPS $-0.34 vs $-0.306 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 37.3%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.051 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.9%, EPS $-0.37 vs $-0.3248 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 10.2%, EPS $-0.16 vs $-0.1452 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 149.6%, EPS $-0.28 vs $-0.1122 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 756.5%, EPS $-11.27 vs $-1.3158 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 394.1%, EPS $-0.15 vs $0.051 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 139.1%, EPS $-5.17 vs $-2.1624 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 52.0%, EPS $-1.13 vs $-2.3562 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.6%, EPS $-1.68 vs $-2.0144 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.6%, EPS $-0.04 vs $-0.051 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 9.4%, EPS $0.08 vs $0.0731 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.0%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.0909 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 15.7%, EPS $-1.90 vs $-1.6422 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 32.5%, EPS $-12.31 vs $-18.2376 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 21.5%, EPS $0.50 vs $0.4114 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $0.17 vs $0.1404 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.2%, EPS $-0.70 vs $-0.6651 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.0%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.0909 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 6.4%, EPS $1.05 vs $0.9867 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.3%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.0612 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.4%, EPS $-1.53 vs $-1.4518 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 176.3%, EPS $1.7474 vs $0.6324 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 22.6%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.0646 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 31.1%, EPS $-0.26 vs $-0.3774 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 14.8%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.0697 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 8.7%, EPS $-1.05 vs $-0.9656 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.0%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.1158 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 39.7%, EPS $0.08 vs $0.1326 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 90.6%, EPS $-0.21 vs $-0.1102 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 10.3%, EPS $4.03 vs $3.6532 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 24.7%, EPS $-1.11 vs $-0.89 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 68.0%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.2188 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 139.4%, EPS $0.05 vs $-0.1268 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 55.8%, EPS $0.12 vs $0.2712 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 656.7%, EPS $-1.84 vs $0.3305 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 19.8%, EPS $-0.27 vs $-0.3366 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 347.5%, EPS $-0.15 vs $0.0606 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 17.5%, EPS $0.70 vs $0.5959 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 58.4%, EPS $-0.48 vs $-0.303 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 247.7%, EPS $-0.50 vs $-0.1438 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 21.1%, EPS $5.3921 vs $6.8372 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 111.4%, EPS $0.04 vs $-0.3519 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 105.5%, EPS $0.037 vs $-0.6732 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 79.8%, EPS $0.14 vs $0.6936 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 155.3%, EPS $0.22 vs $-0.3978 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 81.6%, EPS $-0.47 vs $-2.5602 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 25.5%, EPS $-0.57 vs $-0.765 estimate

OSINT: Global Rise of Fraudulent Virtual Doctors Sparks Regulatory Scrutiny

OSINT: Proposed Law to Codify Autonomous Driving Raises Market Interest

OSINT: Russia to Roll Out New Laws in September, Says Volodin

OSINT: Powell’s Jackson Hole debut sparks rate-hike speculation

Prediction market repriced: "Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?" moved -16pp in 24h to 50%

OSINT: US Court Convicts Russian Citizen for Illicit Aircraft Parts Export

WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORP search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?" moved -21pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 August 24-30?" moved -22pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?" moved -30pp in 24h to 40%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?" moved -34pp in 24h to 7%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?" moved -26pp in 24h to 5%

ENA open interest -20.6% over 24h, OI collapse

OSINT: Rise in Fake Mobile Apps Triggers Consumer Alerts

OSINT: Polygon reveals and patches security flaws in recent hard forks

OSINT: Stellar's tokenized RWA market jumps to $4 B, up over 4×

OSINT: Tokenized Stock Transfer Volume Surges 415% to $29.5B in a Month

Polymarket order flow on "Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?": $13,936 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 55% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (1.50x): on-chain trade volume 1.50x liquidity

OP funding -0.0246% · 4th percentile of its 223d Binance history

OSINT: Global Rise of Fraudulent Virtual Doctors Sparks Regulatory Scrutiny

OSINT: Trump-Backed Token Promotes Gold, Then Crashes

OSINT: Shiba Inu Faces Potential Price Crash, Warns WatcherGuru

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (2.16x): on-chain trade volume 2.16x liquidity

OSINT: BIS chief doubts stablecoins' viability for large-scale payments

OSINT: Bitcoin ETFs inflow streak ends as BTC slides below $78K

Polymarket order flow on "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 29?": 4-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($15,489 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

OSINT: Israel Expels UK Delegates from Gaza Aid Center in Kiryat Gat

OSINT: Germany Blames Russia for Attempted Sabotage, Raises Tensions

OSINT: UK Navy Tracks Russian Warships in Home Waters for Three Days

DXY +0.54%, dollar strength signal

OSINT: Iran claims US Treasury misreported 130M barrels moved through Strait of Hormuz

OSINT: YPF teams with Italian giant for offshore Uruguay exploration

OSINT: Iran to Raise Gasoline Prices Amid Acknowledged US Sanctions, says Pezeshkian

OSINT: Global Rise of Fraudulent Virtual Doctors Sparks Regulatory Scrutiny

OSINT: Proposed Law to Codify Autonomous Driving Raises Market Interest

OSINT: Córdoba food prices surge 40% since 2020, hitting consumers

OSINT: Russia to Roll Out New Laws in September, Says Volodin

OSINT: Powell’s Jackson Hole debut sparks rate-hike speculation

OSINT: BIS chief doubts stablecoins' viability for large-scale payments

OSINT: Rubio says US-Venezuela oil deal to draw $100 bn private investment

OSINT: Drone incidents hit Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, raising energy security concerns

OSINT: SDF Dissolution Marks End of Kurdish Autonomy in Syria

OSINT: Putin to Meet Iran's President at SCO Summit to Discuss Middle East War

OSINT: Zelensky says US shared CIA chief's Moscow meeting intel with Kyiv

OSINT: Egyptian Households Depleting Savings Amid Economic Strain

OSINT: Russian macro data sparks ruble volatility

OSINT: US Court Convicts Russian Citizen for Illicit Aircraft Parts Export

DXY +0.52%, dollar strength signal