Kresmion signals archive
213 cross-asset signals fired across commodity, crypto, equity, forex, macro. See also the Kresmion brief for 2026-09-21.
crypto (65)
- criticalPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 22?" moved +79pp in 24h to 85%
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 22?" moved +73pp in 24h to 93%
- criticalPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 21?" moved +62pp in 24h to 65%
STRK open interest -20.1% over 24h, OI collapse
Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?" moved +39pp in 24h to 74%
DOGE open interest +20.1% over 24h, OI surge
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?" moved -59pp in 24h to 28%
SUI open interest +35.1% over 24h, OI surge
LTC open interest +20.1% over 24h, OI surge
Polymarket order flow on "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 21?": $12,260 in orders from 5 wallets absorbed at the 89% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti
ARB open interest +25.3% over 24h, OI surge
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?" moved +20pp in 24h to 78%
BTC liquidations totaled $9.1M in the past hour, 4% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)
Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?" moved +24pp in 24h to 42%
Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on September 21?" moved +45pp in 24h to 96%
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21?" moved +43pp in 24h to 45%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?" moved +35pp in 24h to 52%
NEAR open interest +27.1% over 24h, OI surge
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 21?" moved +28pp in 24h to 90%
AVAX open interest +27.8% over 24h, OI surge
SUI open interest +20.7% over 24h, OI surge
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 21?" moved +23pp in 24h to 84%
ETH liquidations totaled $7.1M in the past hour, 0% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)
Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,700 September 14-20?" moved +40pp in 24h to 50%
OSINT: ZETA Token Jumps 58% After AI Stack Migration to Solana Approved
OSINT: Coinbase Opens IPO Access to US Retail Investors
SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (3.51x): on-chain trade volume 3.51x liquidity
OSINT: Russia May Legalize Crypto Industry by Year-End, Says Central Bank
OSINT: Solana Tops All Blockchains in DEX Volume as DeFi Revives
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 42%
OSINT: US CLARITY Act Delay Highlights Coinbase Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.52x): on-chain trade volume 0.52x liquidity
OSINT: Tim Draper calls Apple, Meta's refusal to hold Bitcoin 'irresponsible'
OSINT: Analyst predicts Solana will overtake Ethereum, says ETH usage negligible
OSINT: Strategy acquires 950 BTC for $76M and repurchases $174M STRC
OSINT: Russia advances CBDC plans, signaling shift in crypto landscape
OSINT: Cryptocurrencies surge collectively, 140,000 people liquidated
OSINT: US Monetary Policy Forecast Signals Potential Rate Shift
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?" moved +16pp in 24h to 21%
OSINT: ECB unveils Pontes platform for stablecoin-free tokenized asset settlement
SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.50x): on-chain trade volume 0.50x liquidity
OSINT: Zcash Surges 9000% in Two Years, Eyes $3,000 Target
OSINT: Bitcoin climbs toward $85K, hitting eight-month high
OSINT: New sanctions heighten Russia-USA-Ukraine geopolitical tensions
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 21?" moved +18pp in 24h to 19%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?" moved -16pp in 24h to 32%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?" moved +18pp in 24h to 97%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?" moved +17pp in 24h to 98%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Solana reach $120 by December 31, 2026?" moved +19pp in 24h to 89%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?" moved +20pp in 24h to 55%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?" moved +17pp in 24h to 28%
OSINT: X files lawsuit against Bitcoin account operators over $278K fraud
Polymarket order flow on "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?": $19,507 in orders from 4 wallets absorbed at the 80% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market
OSINT: Stripe Integrates XRP Payments via Ripple
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?" moved +18pp in 24h to 20%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?" moved -15pp in 24h to 10%
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?" moved +18pp in 24h to 28%
OSINT: ZetaChain holders vote to shut down L1, migrate ZETA to Solana
OSINT: Bank of Korea Starts 24-Hour Won Settlement Pilot for Foreign Investors
OSINT: Trump threatens Iran, markets brace for volatility
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?" moved +16pp in 24h to 52%
Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?" moved +16pp in 24h to 31%
OSINT: Bitcoin reclaims 50-week moving average: Is the bear market over?
OSINT: Hana Bank launches $100M bond on Euroclear blockchain
SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (1.88x): on-chain trade volume 1.88x liquidity
macro (34)
- criticalPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-09-20?" moved +72pp in 24h to 92%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?" moved +23pp in 24h to 98%
Polymarket order flow on "NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($122,995 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction mar
tanker_freight_etf shipping +11.0%, potential inflation signal
- highALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel": $10,434 in orders from 10 wallets absorbed at the 71% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?" moved +32pp in 24h to 73%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?" moved +29pp in 24h to 54%
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct": $26,372 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 50% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict
tanker_freight_etf shipping +11.0%, potential inflation signal
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?" moved +24pp in 24h to 94%
- highALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 M": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($246,436 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pre
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct": 9-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($34,127 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
tanker_freight_etf shipping +11.0%, potential inflation signal
- highALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?": 5-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($11,778 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?" moved -22pp in 24h to 8%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-09-20?" moved -42pp in 24h to 10%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-09-20?" moved +53pp in 24h to 76%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-09-20?" moved -46pp in 24h to 8%
- highALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?": 6-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($13,988 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predi
- highALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?": $45,468 in orders from 14 wallets absorbed at the 75% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction ma
OSINT: Milei meets Trump aide in NY over Malvinas dispute
OSINT: Milei meets Trump aide in NY over Malvinas dispute
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?" moved +19pp in 24h to 55%
OSINT: Trump claims Russia has lost control of diesel oil industry amid Ukraine war
OSINT: Global gasoline supply forecast shows decline, raising concerns
OSINT: New sanctions heighten Russia-USA-Ukraine geopolitical tensions
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?" moved -16pp in 24h to 59%
OSINT: Trump threatens Iran, markets brace for volatility
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 46%
OSINT: Hebei Youth Training Emphasizes Camouflage, Responsibility
Prediction market repriced: "Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?" moved -15pp in 24h to 3%
- mediumALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($20,060 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
- mediumALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($99,919 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Club León FC win on 2026-09-20?" moved -16pp in 24h to 20%
commodity (18)
OSINT: Iraq suspends operations of US-sanctioned Iranian airlines
Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?" moved -46pp in 24h to 32%
OSINT: Tanker Hit in Strategic Strait of Hormuz Raises Oil Supply Concerns
OSINT: Shurk claims Bush's Islamic appeasement harms US economy
Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?" moved +23pp in 24h to 64%
OSINT: Siluanov Flags Complexities in Russia's Federal Budget Plan
OSINT: Milei meets Trump aide in NY over Malvinas dispute
OSINT: Canadian MP Issues Warning Over Potential Policy Shift
OSINT: German Govt Accelerates Fuel Discount, Cutting Pump Prices
Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?" moved +20pp in 24h to 34%
OSINT: Trump claims Russia has lost control of diesel oil industry amid Ukraine war
OSINT: Rising Oil Prices Bolster Russian Ruble, Analyst Says
OSINT: New sanctions heighten Russia-USA-Ukraine geopolitical tensions
OSINT: Global gasoline supply forecast shows decline, raising concerns
OSINT: Fed hawkish stance pressures markets as oil prices and AI risks stall US stocks
Arctic ice extent 4.71 Mkm² on 2026-09-19 - -1.72 vs 1981-2010 median (-26.7%); NSR open: False
Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?" moved -16pp in 24h to 20%
OSINT: Trump threatens Iran, markets brace for volatility
equity (56)
7 insiders at TVTX sold $65.0M this week
3 insiders at STX sold $91.8M this week
3 insiders at FANG sold $1865.0M this week
5 insiders at DELL sold $147.8M this week
4 insiders at STNG sold $38.8M this week
7 insiders at TVTX sold $65.0M this week
3 insiders at STX sold $91.8M this week
3 insiders at FANG sold $1865.0M this week
5 insiders at DELL sold $147.8M this week
4 insiders at STNG sold $38.8M this week
7 insiders at TVTX sold $65.0M this week
3 insiders at STX sold $91.8M this week
5 insiders at DELL sold $147.8M this week
3 insiders at FANG sold $1865.0M this week
4 insiders at STNG sold $38.8M this week
OSINT: Coinbase Opens IPO Access to US Retail Investors
CubeSmart search volume spiked +98 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Survey warns excessive optimism threatens DAX performance
OSINT: Russia May Legalize Crypto Industry by Year-End, Says Central Bank
- mediumcorporate_crypto_treasury
BITMINE IMMERSION TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (BMNP, BMNR) 8-K references ETH treasury activity · filed 2026-09-21
OSINT: Solana Tops All Blockchains in DEX Volume as DeFi Revives
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 670.3%, EPS $0.55 vs $0.0714 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 255.6%, EPS $0.11 vs $-0.0707 estimate
Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $0.17 vs $0.1404 estimate
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 5.9%, EPS $0.40 vs $0.3777 estimate
Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 110.9%, EPS $0.0087 vs $-0.0796 estimate
Q2-2027: Missed consensus by 6.1%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.3939 estimate
AAPL RSI 70.2, overbought (crossed above 70)
OSINT: US CLARITY Act Delay Highlights Coinbase Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
OSINT: Meta Plans Undersea Cable Linking US and France
OSINT: Google launches custom AI chips, boosting AI hardware stocks
SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
Digital Turbine, Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
MARKEL GROUP INC. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Tesla Stock May Reach $400 Before 2027, Analyst Says
OSINT: Tim Draper calls Apple, Meta's refusal to hold Bitcoin 'irresponsible'
Redwire Corp search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Russia advances CBDC plans, signaling shift in crypto landscape
CopperTech Metals Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: A-shares welcome a new round of just-the-right timing for a rebound! _ Sina Fina
OSINT: US Monetary Policy Forecast Signals Potential Rate Shift
OSINT: Bitcoin climbs toward $85K, hitting eight-month high
OSINT: Index surges and restarts! A-shares welcome a general rally, with CXO becoming t
OSINT: Fed hawkish stance pressures markets as oil prices and AI risks stall US stocks
OSINT: X files lawsuit against Bitcoin account operators over $278K fraud
OSINT: Stripe Integrates XRP Payments via Ripple
SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
MARKEL GROUP INC. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
Digital Turbine, Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
Redwire Corp search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
CopperTech Metals Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Hebei Youth Training Emphasizes Camouflage, Responsibility
CubeSmart search volume spiked +98 pts, unusual interest
Sharewow Ltd search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Bitcoin reclaims 50-week moving average: Is the bear market over?
OSINT: Hana Bank launches $100M bond on Euroclear blockchain
forex (27)
OSINT: Milei meets Trump aide in NY over Malvinas dispute
OSINT: Siluanov Flags Complexities in Russia's Federal Budget Plan
OSINT: Survey warns excessive optimism threatens DAX performance
OSINT: Russia May Legalize Crypto Industry by Year-End, Says Central Bank
OSINT: German Govt Accelerates Fuel Discount, Cutting Pump Prices
OSINT: Canadian MP Issues Warning Over Potential Policy Shift
OSINT: Meta Plans Undersea Cable Linking US and France
OSINT: US CLARITY Act Delay Highlights Coinbase Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
OSINT: Jinpai VP Liu Yuancai stripped of China Brewing Master title
OSINT: Chicago Fed chief warns inflation-fighting measures will hurt US economy
OSINT: Russia's Siluanov says fiscal stance allows monetary easing
OSINT: Russia advances CBDC plans, signaling shift in crypto landscape
OSINT: China-US Trade Tensions Spike FX Market Volatility
OSINT: A-shares welcome a new round of just-the-right timing for a rebound! _ Sina Fina
OSINT: Trump claims Russia has lost control of diesel oil industry amid Ukraine war
OSINT: US Monetary Policy Forecast Signals Potential Rate Shift
OSINT: Rising Oil Prices Bolster Russian Ruble, Analyst Says
OSINT: ECB unveils Pontes platform for stablecoin-free tokenized asset settlement
OSINT: Bitcoin climbs toward $85K, hitting eight-month high
OSINT: Global gasoline supply forecast shows decline, raising concerns
OSINT: New sanctions heighten Russia-USA-Ukraine geopolitical tensions
OSINT: Index surges and restarts! A-shares welcome a general rally, with CXO becoming t
OSINT: Fed hawkish stance pressures markets as oil prices and AI risks stall US stocks
OSINT: Trump threatens Iran, markets brace for volatility
OSINT: Bank of Korea Starts 24-Hour Won Settlement Pilot for Foreign Investors
OSINT: Bitcoin reclaims 50-week moving average: Is the bear market over?
OSINT: Hana Bank launches $100M bond on Euroclear blockchain