Kresmion signals archive
105 cross-asset signals fired across commodity, crypto, equity, forex, macro. See also the Kresmion brief for 2026-09-22.
macro (22)
- criticalPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?" moved +79pp in 24h to 93%
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Oc": 6-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($17,544 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct": 9-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($47,514 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
tanker_freight_etf shipping +11.0%, potential inflation signal
Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($35,310 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 63%
- mediumALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($20,056 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
OSINT: September 2026 Fine Payments Reveal Sector Penalties Surge
OSINT: Zelenskyy and Macron Meet in New York to Discuss Ukraine Support
OSINT: Three Men Face Trial Over Pub Blackmail Shooting in Germany
OSINT: Market Talk Scheduled for Today (Sep 22, 2026)
OSINT: Market Talk Scheduled for Today (Sep 22, 2026)
OSINT: EU urged to tighten Russia sanctions, says Kallas
OSINT: Canal de Isabel II supplies 178k tons sludge as fertilizer for 8k ha
OSINT: Medvedev labels Le Pen's party as Russophobic, heightening EU-Russia tensions
OSINT: Cangzhou Unveils Canal Heritage Museum Showcasing 1,000 Years of History
Polymarket order flow on "Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($12,260 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market
OSINT: Milei heads to New York to press Malvinas claim, court US ties
OSINT: Milei heads to New York to press Malvinas claim, court US ties
OSINT: UK Extends Oil Licenses in Malvinas for 5 Years, Defying Milei
Financial conditions loosening: NFCI at -0.56, liquidity supportive
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Lanús win on 2026-09-21?" moved +19pp in 24h to 64%
equity (33)
7 insiders at DELL sold $165.7M this week
4 insiders at STNG sold $38.8M this week
3 insiders at CRWD sold $43.3M this week
3 insiders at TVTX sold $38.1M this week
2 insiders at BZ sold $110.4M this week
6 insiders at DELL sold $105.1M this week
4 insiders at STNG sold $38.8M this week
2 insiders at CRWD sold $31.1M this week
2 insiders at UTHR sold $18.3M this week
OSINT: European DAX rises as US Nasdaq hits record
OSINT: Bitcoin ETFs Near $1B Inflows, 2026 High
OSINT: Animoca Brands stalls Currencys merger, pushes Nasdaq debut
OSINT: Ethereum Bounces Back to $2,700, Eyes $3,000 Target
Tencent Music Entertainment Group search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Atlanta Fed finds 75% of firms will hoard cash amid $134.7B tax rebate probe
OSINT: Feixiang RV Unveils Metaverse Q5 Platform for Immersive RV Experience
CubeSmart search volume spiked +98 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: September 2026 Fine Payments Reveal Sector Penalties Surge
OSINT: Australian 40-Year Outlook Highlights AI, Skips Crypto
OSINT: Trade Republic tops September remunerated accounts with 3.04% APR
OSINT: World Cup Ads Overrun Broadcasts with Unhealthy, Risky Products
OSINT: Market Talk Scheduled for Today (Sep 22, 2026)
AAPL RSI 70.7, overbought (crossed above 70)
OSINT: Kakao Pay, KakaoBank Team with Fireblocks to Pursue Stablecoin Projects
OSINT: Fed Official Goolsbee Signals Return to 2% Inflation Target
SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
MARKEL GROUP INC. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
Digital Turbine, Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Cangzhou Unveils Canal Heritage Museum Showcasing 1,000 Years of History
OSINT: US semiconductor stocks surged, ARM jumped 17%, and Intel rose over 12%.
Redwire Corp search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
Tencent Music Entertainment Group search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: AI push, lawsuit settlement lift chip stocks
crypto (19)
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?" moved -26pp in 24h to 12%
NEAR funding +0.0201% · 100th percentile of its 247d Binance history
STRK open interest -21.3% over 24h, OI collapse
Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27?" moved +40pp in 24h to 52%
DOGE open interest +29.9% over 24h, OI surge
Polymarket order flow on "Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($10,057 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market
Prediction market repriced: "Will Solana reach $120 in September?" moved +35pp in 24h to 84%
OSINT: Bitcoin ETFs Near $1B Inflows, 2026 High
OSINT: Animoca Brands stalls Currencys merger, pushes Nasdaq debut
OSINT: Ethereum Bounces Back to $2,700, Eyes $3,000 Target
OSINT: Feixiang RV Unveils Metaverse Q5 Platform for Immersive RV Experience
SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (2.80x): on-chain trade volume 2.80x liquidity
OSINT: Australian 40-Year Outlook Highlights AI, Skips Crypto
Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on September 22?" moved -16pp in 24h to 34%
ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.71x): on-chain trade volume 0.71x liquidity
OSINT: Kakao Pay, KakaoBank Team with Fireblocks to Pursue Stablecoin Projects
OSINT: Manhattan US Attorney heads probe into Binance’s Iran sanctions compliance
Polymarket order flow on "Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?": $15,533 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 84% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market
SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (3.15x): on-chain trade volume 3.15x liquidity
commodity (15)
OSINT: Australian Inflation Concerns Rise Amid MP Warning
Gold -1.04%: significant decline on the session
Arctic ice extent 4.71 Mkm² on 2026-09-20 - -1.77 vs 1981-2010 median (-27.4%); NSR open: False
OSINT: Atlanta Fed finds 75% of firms will hoard cash amid $134.7B tax rebate probe
OSINT: September 2026 Fine Payments Reveal Sector Penalties Surge
Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?" moved +15pp in 24h to 73%
OSINT: Zelenskyy and Macron Meet in New York to Discuss Ukraine Support
OSINT: France halts gasoline sales amid Ukraine-related geopolitics
Oil -2.74%: significant decline on the session
OSINT: Market Talk Scheduled for Today (Sep 22, 2026)
OSINT: EU urged to tighten Russia sanctions, says Kallas
OSINT: Medvedev labels Le Pen's party as Russophobic, heightening EU-Russia tensions
OSINT: Milei heads to New York to press Malvinas claim, court US ties
OSINT: UK Extends Oil Licenses in Malvinas for 5 Years, Defying Milei
Natural Gas 20-day realized volatility in the bottom 5% of its 1-year range
forex (16)
OSINT: Bitcoin ETFs Near $1B Inflows, 2026 High
OSINT: Ethereum Bounces Back to $2,700, Eyes $3,000 Target
OSINT: Atlanta Fed finds 75% of firms will hoard cash amid $134.7B tax rebate probe
OSINT: Australian 40-Year Outlook Highlights AI, Skips Crypto
OSINT: Zelenskyy and Macron Meet in New York to Discuss Ukraine Support
OSINT: Three Men Face Trial Over Pub Blackmail Shooting in Germany
OSINT: World Cup Ads Overrun Broadcasts with Unhealthy, Risky Products
OSINT: France halts gasoline sales amid Ukraine-related geopolitics
OSINT: Market Talk Scheduled for Today (Sep 22, 2026)
OSINT: Medvedev labels Le Pen's party as Russophobic, heightening EU-Russia tensions
OSINT: Fed Official Goolsbee Signals Return to 2% Inflation Target
OSINT: EU urged to tighten Russia sanctions, says Kallas
OSINT: Kakao Pay, KakaoBank Team with Fireblocks to Pursue Stablecoin Projects
OSINT: Cangzhou Unveils Canal Heritage Museum Showcasing 1,000 Years of History
OSINT: UK Extends Oil Licenses in Malvinas for 5 Years, Defying Milei
OSINT: Milei heads to New York to press Malvinas claim, court US ties