2026-10-28

Prediction market repriced: "Will Celtic FC win on 2026-10-28?" moved -64pp in 24h to 13%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" moved +68pp in 24h to 96%

Polymarket order flow on "Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?": $12,448 in orders from 12 wallets absorbed at the 27% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction ma

Prediction market repriced: "Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?" moved +32pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" moved +43pp in 24h to 98%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" moved -22pp in 24h to 26%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-28?" moved +27pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-10-28?" moved +57pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-28?" moved -31pp in 24h to 22%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-28?" moved -36pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-28?" moved -22pp in 24h to 10%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Dece": 6-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($22,041 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" moved +22pp in 24h to 83%

Prediction market repriced: "Will BK Hacken win on 2026-10-28?" moved -22pp in 24h to 34%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Dece": $11,017 in orders from 24 wallets absorbed at the 81% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Polymarket order flow on "Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($10,415 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?" moved +33pp in 24h to 70%

Polymarket order flow on "Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat": 45 BUY clips of ~$340 every ~20s over 0.2h ($15,285 total), consistent with TWAP execution on this prediction m

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?" moved -26pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" moved +22pp in 24h to 22%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?" moved +56pp in 24h to 82%

Polymarket order flow on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?": 12-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($67,739 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?" moved +50pp in 24h to 89%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?" moved +23pp in 24h to 60%

Prediction market repriced: "Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 46%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 42%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?" moved +18pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Israeli election results in a hung parliament?" moved +16pp in 24h to 57%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-10-28?" moved -17pp in 24h to 24%

Prediction market repriced: "Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-10-28?" moved +18pp in 24h to 23%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Dec": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($16,342 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Dec": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($147,592 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pre

OSINT: CPMI publishes analysis on how central banks support payment system safety and efficiency and trust in money in the rapi

OSINT: CPMI publishes analysis on how central banks support payment system safety and efficiency and trust in money in the rapi

OSINT: New Eurobarometer survey shows young people's growing engagement and views on participatory democracy, youth issues, and

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($470,265 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction mar

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($61,445 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" moved +17pp in 24h to 48%

Prediction market repriced: "Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?" moved -18pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" moved +18pp in 24h to 46%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?" moved -16pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?" moved +21pp in 24h to 49%

2 insiders at GS sold $11.2M this week

Prediction market repriced: "Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?" moved +30pp in 24h to 38%

2 insiders at ROP sold $6.8M this week

4 insiders at ISRG sold $11.9M this week

3 insiders at PG sold $7.1M this week

3 insiders at CART sold $6.5M this week

3 insiders at TRV sold $19.7M this week

Prediction market repriced: "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" moved -24pp in 24h to 33%

Debt issued with acquisition financing named as the use of proceeds

3 insiders at CART sold $5.0M this week

Prediction market repriced: "Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?" moved +20pp in 24h to 46%

Prediction market repriced: "Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?" moved +18pp in 24h to 35%

Woodward, Inc. search volume spiked +36 pts, unusual interest

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net long 50,726 contracts, 18.62% of open interest (+2.0σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

MU Feb 19 calls traded 7.3x prior open interest, premium over $5M

FXI May 21 puts traded 10.4x prior open interest, premium over $5M

XLE Dec 15 puts traded 28.0x prior open interest, premium over $5M

GLD Dec 18 calls traded 5.9x prior open interest, premium over $5M

GLD Dec 18 calls traded 9.2x prior open interest, premium over $5M

TSLA Mar 19 calls traded 5.7x prior open interest, premium over $5M

SPY Nov 2 puts traded 89.1x prior open interest, premium over $5M

META Nov 20 puts traded 9.9x prior open interest, premium over $5M

MSFT Nov 6 calls traded 11.4x prior open interest, premium over $5M

MU Feb 19 calls traded 12.7x prior open interest, premium over $5M

RIOT Mar 19 puts traded 14.7x prior open interest, premium over $5M

NOW Nov 20 puts traded 8.3x prior open interest, premium over $5M

NVDA Nov 2 calls traded 26.7x prior open interest, premium over $5M

NVDA Nov 2 calls traded 28.2x prior open interest, premium over $5M

QQQ Dec 18 calls traded 11.4x prior open interest, premium over $5M

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 7.5%, EPS $6.13 vs $5.7031 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 29.1%, EPS $0.16 vs $0.2256 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 148.5%, EPS $1.67 vs $0.6719 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 9.1%, EPS $1.50 vs $1.375 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 21.7%, EPS $0.78 vs $0.9962 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 45.6%, EPS $0.24 vs $0.1648 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 8.4%, EPS $3.22 vs $2.9699 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 15.2%, EPS $0.21 vs $0.2475 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 5.4%, EPS $0.44 vs $0.4176 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 12.1%, EPS $2.82 vs $2.5148 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 49.1%, EPS $0.61 vs $0.4091 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 21.9%, EPS $11.3976 vs $9.3474 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 6.4%, EPS $0.28 vs $0.2992 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 58.2%, EPS $-39.19 vs $-93.84 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 58.2%, EPS $-39.19 vs $-93.84 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 55.1%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.4896 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 44.7%, EPS $0.31 vs $0.561 estimate

Q2-2027: Missed consensus by 44.7%, EPS $0.31 vs $0.561 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 55.1%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.4896 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 12.6%, EPS $0.49 vs $0.5606 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 83.7%, EPS $-0.01 vs $-0.0612 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 8.5%, EPS $1.18 vs $1.0871 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 6.9%, EPS $1.39 vs $1.3002 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 23.4%, EPS $-0.86 vs $-0.697 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 10.1%, EPS $0.34 vs $0.3089 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 26.9%, EPS $3.82 vs $3.01 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 19.0%, EPS $0.39 vs $0.3278 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 208.9%, EPS $-0.11 vs $0.101 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 25.4%, EPS $-0.76 vs $-1.0183 estimate

Q2-2027: Missed consensus by 7.0%, EPS $-0.06 vs $-0.0561 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 37.3%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.051 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 18.6%, EPS $1.51 vs $1.2736 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 24.1%, EPS $0.52 vs $0.6851 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 9.7%, EPS $1.10 vs $1.0024 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 6.2%, EPS $7.97 vs $7.5016 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 16.7%, EPS $1.20 vs $1.0285 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 8.5%, EPS $0.51 vs $0.47 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 14.6%, EPS $51.34 vs $44.8181 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 7.1%, EPS $0.44 vs $0.4108 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 25.8%, EPS $0.15 vs $0.1192 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 77.7%, EPS $-0.46 vs $-2.0604 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 77.7%, EPS $-0.46 vs $-2.0604 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 5.6%, EPS $0.60 vs $0.5684 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 16.2%, EPS $2.21 vs $1.9019 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 12.3%, EPS $0.8123 vs $0.9262 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 20.1%, EPS $4.81 vs $4.0059 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 9.1%, EPS $1.34 vs $1.2279 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 80.9%, EPS $0.04 vs $0.2091 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 28.2%, EPS $3.66 vs $2.8549 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 21.0%, EPS $0.41 vs $0.5192 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 11.1%, EPS $0.45 vs $0.5061 estimate

OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS INC search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Q2-2027: Missed consensus by 7.1%, EPS $3.53 vs $3.801 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 51.3%, EPS $11.75 vs $7.7653 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 7.8%, EPS $2.23 vs $2.0679 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 23.2%, EPS $3.88 vs $3.1482 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 78.4%, EPS $5.90 vs $3.3065 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 9.6%, EPS $2.05 vs $1.87 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 13.8%, EPS $0.23 vs $0.2669 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 9.3%, EPS $0.20 vs $0.183 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 59.3%, EPS $-0.351 vs $-0.8619 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 28.5%, EPS $-0.74 vs $-1.0353 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 15.0%, EPS $0.66 vs $0.5741 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 23.5%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.2995 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 14.7%, EPS $1.49 vs $1.2991 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 516.1%, EPS $0.56 vs $0.0909 estimate

IREN Ltd search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Aurora Innovation, Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Prediction market repriced: "Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 50%

FTAI Aviation Ltd. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL CORP search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Large debt issuance: $3.0B at 5.447% due 2030

Large debt issuance: $2.5B at 5.55% due 2029

Large debt issuance: $1.2B at 5.75% due 2029

Q3-2026: EPS $-0.45 vs $-0.0306 estimate, -0.42 on a near-zero consensus

Q1-2027: EPS $0.10 vs $-0.0408 estimate, +0.14 on a near-zero consensus

Q2-2027: EPS $-0.42 vs $-0.0204 estimate, -0.40 on a near-zero consensus

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?": $54,439 in orders from 29 wallets absorbed at the 72% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

Soybean Meal volume spike - 2.8× the 20-day average (112,673 vs 40,175 avg)

OSINT: The President of Iran will hold a bilateral meeting with Putin - Mehr

OSINT: Energy Department Closes $5.1 Billion Loan to Lower Electricity Costs and Strengthen Grid Reliabilit

OSINT: Shipments of crude oil from Russia through the ports of the Baltic and Black Sea basins are forecast

Prediction market repriced: "US imports Russian diesel by November 30?" moved -16pp in 24h to 71%

Lean Hogs fell 4.1% vs prior close ($64.68 → $62.03)

Sugar No. 11 volume spike - 2.3× the 20-day average (169,697 vs 75,157 avg)

Soybean Oil volume spike - 2.1× the 20-day average (75,631 vs 36,421 avg)

NATURAL GAS: speculators net short 241,272 contracts, 14.10% of open interest (-2.5σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

Oil +2.74%: significant gain on the session

Itaipu Dam: reservoir shrinking (2.2σ below baseline NDWI -0.29) - potential power stress

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?" moved +16pp in 24h to 44%

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?" moved -16pp in 24h to 10%

OSINT: Energy Department Closes $5.1 Billion Loan to Lower Electricity Costs and Strengthen Grid Reliability in Iowa and Wiscon

Oil +1.91%: significant gain on the session

Oil +1.61%: significant gain on the session

Itaipu Dam: reservoir shrinking (2.5σ below baseline NDWI -0.29) - potential power stress

Natural Gas rose 3.7% vs prior close ($2.60 → $2.70)

Australian Wheat Belt: crop water stress detected (1.8σ above baseline) - potential ZW=F supply pressure

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?" moved +36pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in October?" moved +32pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?" moved +39pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 28?" moved +51pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?" moved +47pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?" moved +34pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?" moved +25pp in 24h to 62%

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.73x): on-chain trade volume 0.73x liquidity

Prediction market repriced: "Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?" moved +17pp in 24h to 94%

ETH DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.51x): on-chain trade volume 0.51x liquidity

Stablecoin supply (USDT+USDC) shrank $2.7B in 7d · z=-2.0 vs its 92-day baseline

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.64x): on-chain trade volume 0.64x liquidity

OSINT: SkyAI Winds Down $SOL DAT Strategy, Extends Cash Tender Offer to Shareholders

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 28?" moved -17pp in 24h to 4%

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (1.31x): on-chain trade volume 1.31x liquidity

MXN/USD: speculators net long 17,023 contracts, 6.12% of open interest (-2.1σ vs 3y mean), still net long but far less long than usual, positioning unwinding toward short

CHF/USD: speculators net short 18,150 contracts, 13.30% of open interest (+2.1σ vs 3y mean), still net short but far less short than usual, positioning unwinding toward long

EUR/USD: speculators net short 134,524 contracts, 15.32% of open interest (-2.4σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

OSINT: Lumber exports from Russia decreased by 18% over nine months. Sales were affected by a strong ruble and stagnation in th