Research Notes · Ticker

TLT

Kresmion Research notes about TLT. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.

5 notesAll research notes
monetary policyPrediction MarketsinflationRates

The Market Prices a One in Four Chance the Fed Raises Rates on Wednesday.

Economists Still Say No Change.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its decision on Wednesday July 29 at 2:00 pm Eastern. The economists surveyed for it expect no change in rates. That would leave the upper bound of the target range at 3.75 percent, where it has been since April. The people betting money on it disagree by a wide margin. The Polymarket contract on a 25 basis point increase at this meeting is quoted at 26.30 percent this morning, bid 26.20 and offered 26.40. Kalshi, a separate venue, prices the same outcome at 26.50 percent. Two weeks ago the same contract was near 8 percent.

20 min readTLT
MacroRatescredit

The Fed Has Cut 0.75 Points Since Last Summer.

The Two-Year Treasury Has Risen 0.48.

13 min readTLTIEFSHY
CommoditiesCryptoMacro

Gold's 30-Day Correlation With Bitcoin Reached 0.64.

With Long Treasuries It Is 0.10.

13 min readGLDBTCSLV
MacroRatesCross-asset

Treasuries Have Started Moving With Stocks.

The 60/40 Bond Hedge Is Quietly Weakening

9 min readTLTIEFGLD

June 2026

1 note
MacroPositioning

The Market Prices Today's Fed Decision at 98%.

The Real Event Is Warsh's First Dot Plot.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its June rate decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern today, and the deepest market betting on the outcome has gone quiet. On Polymarket, the contract for no change in interest rates holds $9.95 million in volume and prices…

6 min readTLTBZ=F