Research Notes · Ticker
BTC
Kresmion Research notes about BTC. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.
August Payrolls Printed 162,000 Against a 56,000 Consensus.
The September Hike Leg Moved to 52.5 Percent and Passed the Hold.
The Options Market Prices a Near-Term Bitcoin Dip at Nearly 40 Percent.
The Betting Crowd Puts It at 13.
Gold's 30-Day Correlation With Bitcoin Reached 0.64.
With Long Treasuries It Is 0.10.
July 2026
4 notesFor Two Months Money Left the US Bitcoin ETFs.
Last Week It Came Back Hard. The Price Has Not Broken Out.
For most of the past two months, the story in the US spot Bitcoin ETFs was money leaving. Over the last sixty trading days, 27 of 39 flow days were net outflows, and the typical week was about a 268 million dollar exit. On July 13 the funds lost about 478…
Bitcoin and Ethereum Rose This Week While Every Major US Stock Index Fell.
The Macro Regime Behind Them Did Not Shift.
Over the past week Bitcoin and Ethereum are up while the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, the Dow and the Russell 2000 are all down. On Tuesday the gap widened, with Bitcoin up about 3 percent on the day and US stocks set to open lower. A week where crypto rises and…
Two Prediction Markets Price Bitcoin's Chance of Reaching $100,000 This Year.
One Says 14 Percent, the Other 9.
Ask a prediction market how likely Bitcoin is to reach 100,000 dollars before the end of this year, and the answer depends on which market you happen to ask. On Kalshi, the regulated US exchange, the contract that pays out if Bitcoin touches 100,000 dollars…
More Public Companies Filed to Add ETH to Their Balance Sheets Last Month Than Bitcoin.
One of Them Now Holds Almost 5 Percent of the Supply.
Over the past month, six different public companies told the SEC they were putting ETH on their balance sheets. Five said the same about bitcoin. For most of the last two years the count ran the other way, with bitcoin as the default corporate reserve asset…
June 2026
7 notesTwo Independent Betting Markets Quietly Agree on Bitcoin's Year End.
The Most Likely Outcome Sits Below Where It Trades Now.
Two independent betting markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, price Bitcoin's most likely year-end 2026 outcome below today's spot price of around 60,000 dollars. That same week, U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETF investors pulled about 1.9 billion dollars out of the complex in…
Kresmion's Cross Asset Regime Turned Risk-Off Today.
Credit Spreads and Recession Bets Have Not.
Kresmion's cross asset regime model crossed into Risk-Off today for the first time, and the one factor that had been holding it in Neutral was low volatility. The score did not fall because credit cracked or because recession bets jumped. It fell because the…
Bitcoin Futures Speculators Are Crowded Long at a Six Week High.
Spot ETFs, Whales, and the Options Desk Are Leaning the Other Way.
Bitcoin's futures speculators are crowded into their biggest net long in six weeks, even as spot ETFs, whales, and the options desk all lean the other way. That split is the kind of signal that only shows up when you read positioning, flows, hedging, and odds…
Bitcoin ETFs Shed $3.4 Billion in Twelve Sessions.
Futures Traders Are Still Crowded Long.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed roughly $3.4 billion over the last twelve sessions, broken by a single tiny up-day, while futures speculators sit crowded long. That combination is the day's most interesting tension, and it lands on a CPI morning. Here is what…
Every Macro Factor Turned Negative This Week.
A Hot Jobs Report Was the Trigger.
Kresmion's cross-asset regime score swung from +0.20 to -0.30 over the past week, and all four of its underlying factors are now negative as of June 8. The model's conviction stepped from MEDIUM to HIGH on June 5 and has held at maximum for four straight…
$2.3 Billion of Bitcoin's Whale Volume Last Week Was Self-Transfer Noise.
The Genuine Flow Ran One Way.
Over the past week, 86% of large Bitcoin exchange transactions on Kresmion-tracked wallets were same-exchange self-transfers, not genuine cross-party flow. Of roughly $2.3 billion in headline "whale movements," about $949 million was real. And nearly all of…
Risk Appetite Rebounded in May.
It Skipped Bitcoin.
US equities closed May at a record high even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their weakest stretch of demand all year, a divergence that defined the month. The risk-on rebound that lifted stocks largely bypassed crypto. The trigger for the recovery was energy.…
May 2026
2 notesRisk Comes Out of the System: Positioning Capitulates as the Oil Shock Fades
The fear that drove markets to de-risk is starting to fade, but the positioning that fear created has not caught up. Cross-venue prediction markets now assign just a 11.77% chance that Bitcoin clears $130,000 by year-end, roughly one in eight. Kresmion's…
Accumulation Without Conviction: Bitcoin Inflows Build, the Market Stays Skeptical
Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in $1.43 billion of net inflows on May 29, and coins kept leaving exchanges, yet cross-venue prediction markets still price only about a 12% chance that Bitcoin trades above $130,000 by year-end. That gap, real money accumulating…