HG=F

Risk Comes Out of the System: Positioning Capitulates as the Oil Shock Fades

The fear that drove markets to de-risk is starting to fade, but the positioning that fear created has not caught up. Cross-venue prediction markets now assign just a 11.77% chance that Bitcoin clears $130,000 by year-end, roughly one in eight. Kresmion's cross-asset macro regime score has halved in two days, from 0.42 to 0.18, as its growth factor flipped negative. And speculators are sitting at 52-week positioning extremes in natural gas and copper, crowded into commodities at the exact moment the energy shock behind the whole episode begins to reverse. This is a market that has already priced the worst, even as the catalyst for that worst case quietly unwinds. The story of the last month is a single…