By Kresmion Research, October 9, 2026
The US imported 20% fewer processing units in August 2026 than a year earlier at 74% more declared value, putting value per unit at $17,519, a 164 month high. Dollar imports under this code were $33.61 billion in July, the highest of 164 months since January 2013, and $30.30 billion in August, the second highest. On Thursday, October 8, chip stocks fell after a Financial Times report, as summarised by Yahoo Finance, that OpenAI's annualized revenue was $20 billion lower than previously estimated, with higher oil prices also weighing on stocks (Yahoo Finance live blog, October 8). The customs record is a record in dollars per unit, and unit counts were not a record.
Key takeaways
| What | Number |
|---|---|
| US imports of processing units (HS 847150), July 2026 | $33.61 billion, the highest of 164 months since January 2013 (US Census Bureau international trade API, GEN_VAL_MO) |
| Same series, August 2026 | $30.30 billion, second highest; August 2025 was $17.45 billion, so August is 74 percent higher year over year (US Census Bureau) |
| Units, August 2026 | 1,729,677, against 2,163,574 in August 2025 (20 percent fewer) and 1,482,232 in August 2024 (17 percent more). July 2026: 1,961,689 units against 1,759,606 in July 2025 (11 percent more) (US Census Bureau, HS 8471500150, GEN_QY1_MO) |
| Average declared value per unit | August 2026 $17,519, the highest of 164 months, 2.17 times August 2025 ($8,066). July 2026 $17,133, second highest. August 2024 was $4,519 (US Census Bureau, value divided by units) |
| Mexico, August 2026 | $18.82 billion; 908,753 units against 1,047,503 a year earlier (13 percent fewer); value per unit $20,709 against $7,347, a 164 month high, 2.8 times (US Census Bureau) |
| Taiwan, August 2026 | $7.90 billion against $8.54 billion in August 2025, 7 percent lower; 151,737 units at $52,094 each (US Census Bureau) |
| Chip stocks, Thursday October 8 | NVDA 2.94 percent lower (about 1.2 standard deviations of its one-year daily range), AMD 3.90 percent, AVGO 4.35 percent, MU 4.79 percent, SMCI 4.83 percent, DELL 0.76 percent (Kresmion ticker_price_history) |
| Broad market, October 8 | Nasdaq Composite 1.25 percent lower, S&P 500 0.47 percent lower (Kresmion equity_index_quotes) |
What the customs series shows
The Census Bureau publishes monthly imports by Harmonized System code, a product classification covered in what is an HS code. Code 847150 covers processing units other than those of subheadings 8471.41 and 8471.49, and servers land there. The measure is general imports at declared customs value in US dollars, which excludes duty. The ten digit code 8471500150 carries the six digit total to within 0.01 percent in recent months and also reports a unit count (US Census Bureau international trade API, HS 8471500150, GEN_VAL_MO and GEN_QY1_MO, January 2013 to August 2026; Census foreign trade data).
Dollars first. July at $33.61 billion is the highest month of 164, and August at $30.30 billion ranks second. April to June ran between $24.66 billion and $25.81 billion. January to August totals $205.7 billion, against $90.2 billion a year earlier.
Then units. August 2026 brought 1,729,677 units, 20 percent below August 2025 and 17 percent above August 2024. The comparison month is high: August 2025 brought 2,163,574 units, about 21 percent above the average of June and July 2025, and unit counts in December 2025 (3,581,744) and February 2026 (2,921,784) were higher than August 2026's. The all time unit record is May 2025, at 5,445,463. July 2026 units were 11 percent above July 2025, and July's value per unit was 1.83 times July 2025's $9,342, against 2.17 times for August.
Dividing value by units gives the average declared value per unit: $4,519 in August 2024, $8,066 in August 2025, $12,415 in June 2026, $17,133 in July and $17,519 in August 2026. That is the highest of 164 months and 2.17 times the figure a year earlier. It is an average across every machine type under the code, and it is not the price of any one server.
Mexico supplies most of the dollars: $20.16 billion in July, a record, and $18.82 billion in August, the second highest. Its unit count fell 13 percent from August 2025 to 908,753 while its value per unit rose from $7,347 to $20,709, a 164 month high and 2.8 times. Mexico's share of the total was 62.1 percent in August 2026 and 61.8 percent in August 2023. The share dipped to 44.1 percent in August 2025.
The mechanism
On one reading, the mix of machines under this code has shifted toward servers dense with accelerators, so each unit that crosses the border carries more declared value. Cloud providers and AI labs place orders months ahead of delivery, and customs records the value on arrival. Under that reading the series records spending committed earlier, while the stock market on October 8 repriced the revenue that spending may earn later. That is one reading of an average, and the Census rows do not show what is inside the machines.
The market side is documented. Yahoo Finance reported that chip stocks declined after a Financial Times report cast doubt over OpenAI's revenue, and that higher oil prices also weighed on stocks, while Treasury yields eased (Yahoo Finance live blog). There is precedent this year: on April 28, 2026 chip stocks dropped on a report that OpenAI had missed ChatGPT growth targets (SiliconANGLE).
The alternative explanations
Three other readings compete. The data narrows one of them and cannot settle the other two.
The first is component price inflation. If memory and other parts cost more, the declared value of an otherwise similar machine rises without any change in what it does.
The second is country mix. Taiwan's units averaged $52,094 in August and Mexico's $20,709, so a shift between suppliers moves the overall average. That explains little here: both main suppliers' averages rose, Mexico's 2.8 times and Taiwan's 3.9 times (from $13,301 in August 2025, on 76 percent fewer units), and Mexico's share of the dollars is close to its August 2024 level.
The third is early stocking. Proclamation 11002, signed January 14, 2026 under Section 232 and published in the Federal Register on January 20, set a 25 percent duty on a narrow set of advanced computing chips and certain derivative products, with exemptions that include imports for US data centers (Federal Register; Baker McKenzie). The data center exemption weighs against stocking of data center servers ahead of the current duty. The proclamation leaves broader action open without a date, and Kresmion's records tag HS 847150 as within the policy's product scope, so stocking ahead of a later phase cannot be ruled out.
The base rate
Value per unit in August 2026 is the highest of 164 months, and July and August are the two highest months by dollars. Series that rise over time make new highs often, so a high alone is a weak signal. The size of the step matters more: value per unit went from $8,066 to $17,519 in a year, 2.17 times.
The evidence against
August at $30.30 billion is 10 percent below July at $33.61 billion, so the dollar series has already stepped down once. Unit counts were not a record in either month, and July units rose 11 percent year over year, so volume fell in only one of the two months. Taiwan shipped $7.90 billion in August, below its February 2026 peak of $11.86 billion. Not every corridor is at a high: US imports of integrated circuits from Malaysia were $462 million in July, 27 percent below a high July 2025 base of $629 million, and the second lowest of 139 months (US Census Bureau via Kresmion supply_flows). The chip stock moves were ordinary in size. NVDA's 2.94 percent decline (from 237.47 to 230.48) was about 1.2 standard deviations of its one-year daily range, AMD's about 0.9, AVGO's about 1.5, MU's about 0.9 and SMCI's about 0.8, and DELL moved 0.76 percent, about 0.2 (Kresmion ticker_price_history against the October 7 snapshot close). None was an extreme day for its own history. NVDA short volume was elevated all week, between 46.5 and 57.4 percent of reported daily volume against a mean of 37.8 percent over the 66 sessions to September 30, so October 8's 52.4 percent was part of a run (Kresmion finra_short_volume). It includes market-maker hedging and is a different measure from short interest.
What would change the read
The September Census release carries both pieces. If value per unit falls back while unit counts stay steady, that would point to the mix reverting. If unit counts jump, that would point to stocking. Value per unit holding near $17,000 on steady units would leave the mix reading standing. The release also settles whether dollars stay near $30 billion or return toward the April to June range of about $25 billion. For the cross-border flows behind these numbers, the semiconductor supply chain tool tracks the corridors, and the previous brief is October 6.
Frequently asked questions
What does HS 847150 cover?
It is the Harmonized System code for processing units other than those of subheadings 8471.41 and 8471.49, which includes servers. The ten digit code 8471500150 reports both a declared value in US dollars and a unit count.
Were July and August records?
In dollars, yes: July 2026 at $33.61 billion is the highest of 164 months and August at $30.30 billion is second. In units, no. August had 1,729,677, below August 2025, and the unit record is May 2025 at 5,445,463.
What is average declared value per unit?
It is the dollar value divided by the unit count, averaged across every machine type under the code. It was $17,519 in August 2026, against $8,066 a year earlier. It is not the price of any one server.
Why did chip stocks fall if imports are at a record?
Yahoo Finance attributed Thursday's decline to a Financial Times report that cast doubt over OpenAI's revenue, with higher oil prices also weighing on stocks. The moves in the six names tracked ranged from 0.76 percent to 4.83 percent, about 0.2 to 1.5 standard deviations.
What is the next data point?
The September Census release, with value per unit and unit counts for the same code.
Sources
US Census Bureau international trade API, HS 8471500150 and HS 847150, GEN_VAL_MO and GEN_QY1_MO, January 2013 to August 2026: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/index.html
Federal Register, Proclamation 11002, Adjusting Imports of Semiconductors, Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, and Their Derivative Products Into the United States (signed January 14, published January 20, 2026): https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/01/20/2026-01052/adjusting-imports-of-semiconductors-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-and-their-derivative
Baker McKenzie, US President Trump issues Section 232 proclamations on semiconductors and critical minerals (January 27, 2026): https://globalimportblog.bakermckenzie.com/2026/01/27/us-president-trump-issues-section-232-proclamations-on-semiconductors-and-critical-minerals/
Kresmion supply_policy_events, Proclamation 11002 entry (HS codes tagged in scope).
US Census Bureau via Kresmion supply_flows, US imports of integrated circuits from Malaysia, July 2026 and July 2025.
Kresmion ticker_price_history, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MU, SMCI and DELL closes, October 7 and October 8, 2026, with one year daily standard deviations.
Kresmion equity_index_quotes, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 closes, October 8, 2026.
Kresmion finra_short_volume, NVDA daily short volume ratio, October 1 to October 8, 2026, and the 66 session baseline from 2026-06-29 to 2026-09-30.
Yahoo Finance, Stock market today, Thursday October 8 (Financial Times report on OpenAI revenue, oil and yields): https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-thursday-october-8-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-080537884.html
SiliconANGLE, Chip stocks drop on report OpenAI missed ChatGPT growth targets (April 28, 2026): https://siliconangle.com/2026/04/28/chip-stocks-drop-report-openai-missed-chatgpt-growth-targets/