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Prediction Markets

Kresmion Research notes on prediction markets. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.

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Prediction MarketsCryptomarket structuredata quality

There Is a Riskless Trade Sitting Next to Polymarket's Bitcoin Ladder.

It Pays 0.37 Percent a Year Against a 4.02 Percent Treasury Bill.

Polymarket's event on where Bitcoin gets to before 2027 carries thirty two live contracts, twenty on reaching a given price and twelve on dipping to one. We pulled all thirty two from the venue's API at 09:05 UTC on August 5, 2026, and every rung below is quoted as of that moment. Two pairs in the twenty rung ladder are priced in an order that cannot be right, and a twenty first contract sitting outside it makes a third case.

21 min read
Cryptooptionsderivatives

The Options Market Prices a Near-Term Bitcoin Dip at Nearly 40 Percent.

The Betting Crowd Puts It at 13.

7 min readBTCETH
monetary policyPrediction Marketsinflation

The Market Prices a One in Four Chance the Fed Raises Rates on Wednesday.

Economists Still Say No Change.

20 min readTLT
CryptoPrediction Markets

Two Prediction Markets Price Bitcoin's Chance of Reaching $100,000 This Year.

One Says 14 Percent, the Other 9.

11 min readBTC

June 2026

1 note
CryptoPrediction Markets

Two Independent Betting Markets Quietly Agree on Bitcoin's Year End.

The Most Likely Outcome Sits Below Where It Trades Now.

Two independent betting markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, price Bitcoin's most likely year-end 2026 outcome below today's spot price of around 60,000 dollars. That same week, U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETF investors pulled about 1.9 billion dollars out of the complex in…

11 min readBTC