Research Notes · Theme

Rates

Kresmion Research notes on rates. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.

7 notesAll research notes
MacroRates

The 10-Year Real Yield Reached 2.93 Percent, Its Highest Since 2008.

When October Hike Odds Fell, It Stayed There.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 53 basis points between August 31 and October 2, from 4.75 to 5.28 percent, and 48 of those basis points were real yield. The 10-year TIPS real yield went from 2.44 to 2.92 percent, with 2.93 on September 30, a level not seen since November 2008, while the 10-year breakeven, the inflation rate the market builds into the nominal yield, moved from 2.31 to 2.36 percent (Kresmion fredserieshistory, FRED DGS10, DFII10, T10YIE). Through September 28 the whole curve rose together, after the Fed's first rate increase since 2023. Hike odds for October went from about 71 percent last week to about 26 percent on October 5, and in the four sessions to October 2 the 2-year gave back 9…

11 min read
MacroRatesCrypto

August Payrolls Printed 162,000 Against a 56,000 Consensus.

The September Hike Leg Moved to 52.5 Percent and Passed the Hold.

15 min readBTC
monetary policyPrediction Marketsinflation

The Market Prices a One in Four Chance the Fed Raises Rates on Wednesday.

Economists Still Say No Change.

20 min readTLT
MacroRatescredit

The Fed Has Cut 0.75 Points Since Last Summer.

The Two-Year Treasury Has Risen 0.48.

13 min readTLTIEFSHY

July 2026

1 note
MacroRatesliquidity

Liquidity Is Abundant and the Real Cost of Money Keeps Rising.

The June Inflation Report Is the Test.

The US financial system is not short of liquidity. Bank reserves and the other balances Kresmion tracks as net liquidity sit near the top of their range since the spring, close to a full standard deviation above their recent average. Yet in Kresmion's cross…

9 min read

June 2026

2 notes
MacroRatesCross-asset

Treasuries Have Started Moving With Stocks.

The 60/40 Bond Hedge Is Quietly Weakening

The textbook job of a Treasury bond in a portfolio is to zig when stocks zag. That is the whole reason a 60/40 mix exists: when equities fall, bonds are supposed to rise and soften the blow. In practice that relationship has been mildly positive rather than…

9 min readTLTIEFGLD
MacroRatesPositioning

Kresmion's Cross Asset Regime Turned Risk-Off Today.

Credit Spreads and Recession Bets Have Not.

Kresmion's cross asset regime model crossed into Risk-Off today for the first time, and the one factor that had been holding it in Neutral was low volatility. The score did not fall because credit cracked or because recession bets jumped. It fell because the…

11 min readBTCETH