Research Notes · Theme

Commodities

Kresmion Research notes on commodities. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.

10 notesAll research notes
CommoditiesEnergyPositioning

Brent Trades 13.71 Dollars Over WTI for December.

By September 2027 the Gap Is 6.84

Brent for December delivery costs 13.71 dollars more than WTI for the same month on October 9, and the curve prices about half that gap by September 2027. On September 29 the December against December gap was 8.91. It reached 11.47 on October 1, with Brent December up 6.15 and WTI December up 3.59 over two sessions that spanned the expiry of the Brent November contract. The data do not show whether the expiry affected December prices. After that the gap rose to 12.82 on October 2, eased to 12.12 on October 5 and closed at 13.71 on October 9, with Brent December up 2.41 and WTI December up 0.17 from October 1. The January gap rose from 7.80 to 11.25 and March from 7.15 to 8.85. Benzinga and an analyst quoted by…

13 min readBZ=FCL=FVLOMPC
CommoditiesCryptoMacro

Gold's 30-Day Correlation With Bitcoin Reached 0.64.

With Long Treasuries It Is 0.10.

13 min readGLDBTCSLV
CommoditiesEnergygeopolitics

Oil Rose About 15 Percent This Week as US-Iran Strikes Turned Deadly.

Speculators Went Into the Surge Near Their Lightest Crude Bet of the Year.

11 min readCL=FBZ=F
CommoditiesgeopoliticsMacro

Wheat Rose 11 Percent in Six Sessions on Black Sea Strikes.

A Second Supply Signal Was Firing at the Same Time, an Ocean Away.

15 min readZW=F

July 2026

2 notes
CommoditiesPositioning

Oil Jumped More Than 4 Percent When the Iran Ceasefire Collapsed.

Speculators Went In With One of Their Smallest Positions of the Year.

Oil jumped more than 4 percent when the Iran ceasefire collapsed this week, and speculators met the move holding one of their smallest crude bets of the year. West Texas Intermediate rose 4.4 percent to 73.52 dollars on July 8 after President Trump called the…

10 min read
CommoditiesPositioning

Speculators Built a Record Copper Long Into the US Tariff Decision.

They Have Been Unwinding It for a Month.

Copper futures speculators built a record net long by mid May and have been unwinding it for a month, the newest weekly CFTC report showing the largest cut. The new Commitments of Traders report, dated June 30 and released Monday after the July 4 holiday…

11 min read

June 2026

3 notes
CommoditiesPositioning

Speculators Are the Most Crowded Into Natural Gas in Over a Year.

Storage Sits Nearly 6 Percent Above Normal.

Speculators are their most crowded into natural gas in over a year, near 64 percent of open interest, and the storage report shows a well supplied market. That gap, between how heavily the fast money is positioned and what the physical balance and the macro…

8 min read
MacroCommodities

Producer Inflation Hit 6.5% in May, the Hottest Since 2022.

The Oil Spike Behind It Is Already Reversing.

Wholesale prices in the United States rose 6.5 percent in the year to May, the hottest reading since November 2022, and most of that increase traces to energy. The Producer Price Index was released on June 11, and the May Consumer Price Index landed a day…

6 min readBZ=F
MacroCryptoPositioning

Risk Appetite Rebounded in May.

It Skipped Bitcoin.

US equities closed May at a record high even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their weakest stretch of demand all year, a divergence that defined the month. The risk-on rebound that lifted stocks largely bypassed crypto. The trigger for the recovery was energy.…

4 min readBTCCL=F

May 2026

1 note
PositioningCommoditiesMacro

Risk Comes Out of the System: Positioning Capitulates as the Oil Shock Fades

The fear that drove markets to de-risk is starting to fade, but the positioning that fear created has not caught up. Cross-venue prediction markets now assign just a 11.77% chance that Bitcoin clears $130,000 by year-end, roughly one in eight. Kresmion's…

6 min readBTCCL=FNG=F