2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Part of: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House" at 1% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:51 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 562829. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 8, 2026, this market has traded between 1 percent (Sep 22, 2026) and 4 percent (Sep 13, 2026), across 2,464 recorded prices. The current price of 1 percent is 0.5 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (1 percent), and 0.3 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (1 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 2% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 2% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 1% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 1 percent and the best ask is 1 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.005 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $112 at the best bid and $2K at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 1 percent, with the NO outcome at 99 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and N...
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 562829
Kresmion, "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-r-house-692. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 562829.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-r-house-692">2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:51 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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