2026 Balance of Power: Other
Part of: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "2026 Balance of Power: Other" below 1% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:33 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 562832. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 22, 2026, this market has traded between 0 percent (Sep 22, 2026) and 0 percent (Sep 22, 2026), across 362 recorded prices. The current price of 0 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (0 percent).
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 0 percent and the best ask is 0 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.002 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $67 at the best bid and $112 at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 0 percent, with the NO outcome at 100 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to t...
More politics markets
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Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 562832
Kresmion, "2026 Balance of Power: Other (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/2026-balance-of-power-other-131. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 562832.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/2026-balance-of-power-other-131">2026 Balance of Power: Other (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:33 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.