Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Part of: Another Fed rate hike in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" at 80% as of Nov 9, 2026, 16:18 UTC, up from 72% a week earlier.
Free account
Company filings, insider trades and macro, with a free account
A free account opens company statements built from SEC filings, where a reported number links to the filing it came from, plus insider and Congress trades, 13F holdings, macro and crypto pages and a weekly email on your watchlist. Free while we're in beta, no card.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 17, 2026, this market has traded between 63 percent (Nov 5, 2026) and 93 percent (Sep 24, 2026), across 1,759 recorded prices. The current price of 80 percent is 7.5 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (72 percent), and 2.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (78 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | 87% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 91% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 76% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 77% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 79% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 77% |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 73% |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 76% |
| Nov 9, 2026 | 80% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 79 percent and the best ask is 80 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $44K on the bid side and $2K on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-11-09 16:12 UTC.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 80 percent, with the NO outcome at 20 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
More macro markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 4620900
Kresmion, "Another Fed rate hike in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-11-09, https://kresmion.com/odds/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 4620900.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026">Another Fed rate hike in 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
Writing about this? Press contact and ready-to-quote figures
Get the smart money brief
Insider trades, 13F flows, and cross asset positioning reads with their sources, in your inbox when there is something in the data, or live on Telegram. Free, no account.
No fixed schedule: it goes out when the data has something in it. Unsubscribe anytime.
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-11-09 16:18 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.