Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?
Part of: Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?" at 2% as of Sep 22, 2026, 15:01 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 1057349. Method and limitations.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 12, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Aug 25, 2026) and 7 percent (May 12, 2026), across 1,388 recorded prices. The current price of 2 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (2 percent), and 0.3 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (3 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | 7% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 3% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 3% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 2% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 2% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 2% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 2 percent, with the NO outcome at 98 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
More other markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1057349
Kresmion, "Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/jeffrey-epstein-foul-play-confirmed-by-december-31-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1057349.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-22 15:01 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.