New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
Part of: New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? . Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "New 'Stranger Things' episode released by December 31?" at 3% as of Oct 15, 2026, 11:41 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 26, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Sep 8, 2026) and 7 percent (May 26, 2026), across 3,219 recorded prices. The current price of 3 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (3 percent), and 0.6 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (3 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 2% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 2% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 2% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 2% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 3% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 3% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 3 percent, with the NO outcome at 97 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series. If Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
More other markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1119647
Kresmion, "New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/new-stranger-things-episode-released-by-december-31-587-657-824-246. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1119647.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/new-stranger-things-episode-released-by-december-31-587-657-824-246">New Stranger Things episode released by December 31? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 11:41 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.