Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?
Part of: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?" at 77% as of Oct 15, 2026, 11:25 UTC, up from 66% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Oct 1, 2026, this market has traded between 22 percent (Oct 6, 2026) and 86 percent (Oct 12, 2026), across 458 recorded prices. The current price of 77 percent is 11.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (66 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | 60% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 73% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 77% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 77 percent, with the NO outcome at 23 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact do...
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 5167189
Kresmion, "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-october-8. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 5167189.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-october-8">Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
Get the smart money brief
Insider trades, 13F flows, and cross asset positioning reads with the source on every number, in your inbox when there is something in the data, or live on Telegram. Free, no account.
No fixed schedule: it goes out when the data has something in it. Unsubscribe anytime.
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 11:25 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.