Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Part of: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" at 4 percent YES, on $40.4M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Jul 26, 2026) and 4 percent (Jul 20, 2026), across 8,497 recorded prices. The current price of 4 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (4 percent), and level with where it stood 30 days ago (4 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 4% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 3% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 4% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 4 percent, with the NO outcome at 96 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:05 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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