Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Part of: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" at 2% as of Oct 15, 2026, 09:49 UTC.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 2 percent and the best ask is 2 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.021 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $169 at the best bid and $99 at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-15 09:46 UTC.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 2 percent, with the NO outcome at 98 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 567621
Kresmion, "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 567621.
Link to this data (HTML):
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 09:49 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.