Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Part of: Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?" at 2% as of Oct 15, 2026, 09:45 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Oct 5, 2026) and 5 percent (Jul 16, 2026), across 2,621 recorded prices. The current price of 2 percent is 0.1 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (2 percent), and 0.9 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (3 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 3% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 2% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 2% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 2 percent, with the NO outcome at 98 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 997488
Kresmion, "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 997488.
Link to this data (HTML):
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 09:45 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.