Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Part of: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" at 7 percent YES, on $25.3M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 7 percent (Aug 4, 2026) and 12 percent (Jul 17, 2026), across 8,974 recorded prices. The current price of 7 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (7 percent), and 2.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (9 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 11% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 9% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 8% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 7% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 7% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 7% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 7% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 7 percent, with the NO outcome at 93 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:37 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.