Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Part of: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" at 6% as of Oct 15, 2026, 09:49 UTC.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 6 percent, with the NO outcome at 94 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 663583
Kresmion, "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 663583.
Link to this data (HTML):
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 09:49 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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