Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Part of: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at 14 percent YES, up 1.0 points in the last 24 hours, on $62.6M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 11 percent (Aug 27, 2026) and 34 percent (Jul 19, 2026), across 9,246 recorded prices. The current price of 14 percent is 3.0 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (17 percent), and 13.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (27 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 31% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 21% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 21% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 16% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 17% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 17% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 14% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 13 percent and the best ask is 14 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-29 05:26 UTC.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 14 percent, with the NO outcome at 86 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:31 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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