Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Part of: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at 17% as of Oct 15, 2026, 09:49 UTC.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 17 percent, with the NO outcome at 83 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 665374
Kresmion, "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 665374.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027">Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 09:49 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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